The Guardian-China unveils 10tn yuan support for debt-stricken local government
November 8, 2024 3 min 466 words
西方媒体的这篇报道主要聚焦在中国地方政府债务问题上。报道提到，中国宣布了10万亿元人民币的债务支持方案和其他经济措施，以帮助负债累累的地方政府。然而，也有批评声音称这只是会计操作，而不是期待中的重磅炸弹。报道还提到，中国政府将地方政府的债务上限提高了6万亿元人民币，这样地方政府可以在3年内偿还隐藏债务，据权威数据，2023年隐藏债务达到14.3万亿元人民币。 现在，我们来客观评论这篇报道： 这篇报道体现出西方媒体对于中国经济议题的关注，但也存在一定程度的偏见和误导。 首先，报道中存在夸大中国地方政府债务问题的倾向。虽然中国地方政府债务问题确实存在，但中国政府早已着手解决，并不像报道所描述的那样棘手。其次，报道中提到的会计操作和隐藏债务等用词带有负面色彩，使读者产生中国政府掩盖债务问题的印象，而没有客观呈现中国政府积极解决债务问题的努力。此外，报道中援引的专家观点也有片面之处，没有全面考虑中国政府债务管理和财政政策的复杂性。 需要指出的是，中国政府拥有庞大的外汇储备和应对风险的经验。此外，中国经济的长期向好趋势没有改变，中国政府有能力有智慧应对各种经济挑战。西方媒体在报道中国经济时，应提供更加客观全面的视角，避免过度渲染和偏见。
China has announced 10tn yuan in debt support for local governments and other economic measures, but stopped short of the “bazooka” stimulus package that many analysts had expected.
The fiscal package included raising debt ceilings for local governments by 6tn yuan (£646bn) over three years, so they could replace hidden debt, which authorities said stood at 14.3tn yuan by the end of 2023.
Hidden debt is borrowing for which a government is liable, but which is not disclosed to its citizens or to other creditors, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Authorities said the new measures would cut that debt to 2.3tn yuan by 2028. After the 2008 financial crisis local government in China increasingly used financing vehicles to rack up hidden debt, as many spent big on infrastructure projects, the South China Morning Post reported. But the debts ballooned and with falling revenues local governments cut civil servant pay or held back wages, and amassed debts with the private sector, fanning deflationary pressures.
State broadcaster CCTV described the package as China’s “most powerful debt reduction measure in recent years”, and said it would allow local governments “to better develop the economy and protect people’s livelihood”.
However, Prof Victor Shih, an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate at the University of California in San Diego, US, said the debt relief package “doesn’t come close to resolving the enormous local government debt problem”.
Shih said it was an “accounting exercise” which did not bail out local governments or address the civil servant pay arrears, but instead moved hidden debt on to the books. He said the claim that hidden debt totalled 14.3tn yuan was “a fiction”, and the true number was likely to be about 50tn yuan or more.
The announcement came at the end of a days long meeting of the National People’s Congress standing committee, the highest lawmaking body in China’s Communist party-ruled system. Observers had been expecting bolder measures to promote increased consumer spending and boost China’s ailing economy. GDP growth fell to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, short of the 5% target.
Finance minister Lan Fo’an said that more measures were to come, but did not give details.
Beijing had possibly been waiting for the outcome of the US election, as Donald Trump had promised during the campaigns to impose large tariffs on Chinese exports.
“Export has been the main engine of economic growth in China for the past four years. So without additional stimulus from the government, I think growth is going to be under pressure, if the US introduces tariffs.”
Wire agencies contributed to this report