外媒中国相关-Chinas ICBM test may well redraw the global security landscape

AI Summary:

中国上月进行的洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）试验引发全球安全界的广泛关注，标志着国家军事现代化的一大里程碑。这次试验不仅展示了中国的技术进步，还暴露了美主导的亚太地区同盟关系中的一系列挑战。中国选择告知美国此试验，却未通知其在该地区的主要盟友，如日本和台湾，突显了信息共享的不对称性，进一步显示出他们对华盛顿的依赖。 日本面对日益增长的安全忧虑，增设了创纪录的国防预算，而台湾则在监测导弹发射方面的局限性，使其安全自主性受到质疑。中国的试验展示了先进的导弹技术，可能具备多弹头能力，显著增强了其核威慑能力。这一局势的变化促使全球社区重新审视美俄主导的军控框架，可能推动新型多边军控协议的形成。 中国这种透明的核外交策略，可能吸引全球南方国家视其为西方安全规范的对抗力量，促进了对多极世界秩序的承诺。中国的核现代化努力预计将在2035年前赶上美俄，进一步影响全球安全格局。

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https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281743/chinas-icbm-test-may-well-redraw-global-security-landscape?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test last month made waves in global security circles, marking a milestone in the country’s military modernisation and revealing critical dynamics in US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific.

While analysis has focused on the technological strides China showed, the test exposes a series of under-reported challenges, particularly around alliance dynamics, nuclear diplomacy and the shifting power balance in global arms control.

By examining these broader implications, one can see that this missile test is more than a technological show of strength; it represents a pivotal shift in nuclear strategy and alliance stability that could redefine security in the region and beyond.

China’s decision to inform the United States of the test, but not all of Washington’s regional allies, has exposed the asymmetrical information-sharing within the US alliance structure. Key US partners Japan and Taiwan were left woefully uninformed, highlighting their dependence on Washington.

Japan’s record defence budget of 7.95 trillion yen (US$53.15 billion) for the current financial year illustrates its growing concerns; it lacks an independent missile defence system to address threats like the advanced DF-31AG missile with its multi-warhead capabilities, which experts have concluded was launched in China’s ICBM test.

Taiwan, meanwhile, detected the missile’s launch but most likely lost it when it exited the island’s radar range, underscoring Taiwan’s limitations in strategic autonomy. The reliance of both Japan and Taiwan on the US complicates their defence planning, raising questions about their security resilience.

In the face of Beijing’s advances, both may feel pressure to develop independent surveillance and defence capacities, potentially reshaping their strategic dependence on the US and fragmenting alliance structures.

Notifying the US of the ICBM test reflects China’s nuanced approach to nuclear diplomacy. Unlike Russia’s recent failed missile launch, plans for which were largely opaque to international observers, China’s transparency aligns with a strategic calculus aimed at displaying a restrained yet capable nuclear posture.

This gesture not only reduced the risk of misinterpretation but also emphasised China’s confidence in its strategic reach and military capabilities. China’s willingness to be transparent, contrasted with the traditional secrecy surrounding missile tests, could prompt other major nuclear powers to adopt a more transparent stance in future military exercises and tests.

China’s advancements in ICBM technology were showcased in this launch; the missile launched is widely speculated to have had multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), giving it a significantly enhanced nuclear deterrent. While the DF-31AG has an estimated range of 12,000km, capable of striking targets across continental US, China’s DF-41 missile extends its reach even further with more payload capacity.

Such capabilities strengthen China’s second-strike capabilities and add credibility to its “minimum deterrence” posture by ensuring it can respond to threats without resorting to first-use tactics.

China’s missile success comes amid setbacks for other nuclear powers. Recent test failures including of Britain’s Trident and the US’ Minuteman III, as well as France’s successful but non-full-range-test, position China as a more reliable and capable nuclear force. This shift may push the global community to revisit the US-Russia-centric arms control framework to consider China’s capabilities in a broader, multipolar context.

China’s nuclear advancements may require new, multilateral arms control agreements that include more nuclear-armed states. As countries such as India advance their missile systems, China’s strides underscore the urgent need for an inclusive arms control framework.

The US and its allies will need to invest in defences that address the sophistication of MIRV-equipped missiles, a development likely to fuel an arms race that could heighten tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

China’s assertiveness in developing nuclear capabilities is likely to resonate with the Global South, where many countries may see Beijing as a counterbalance to Western security norms.

Countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America may interpret China’s transparent testing as a commitment to a multipolar world order, one that challenges the West’s traditional dominance in nuclear affairs. For nations seeking strategic autonomy, China’s model of restrained but transparent power could offer a compelling alternative.

China’s nuclear modernisation suggests it aims to build capabilities on a par with Russia and the US by 2035, potentially focusing on mobility, concealment and enhanced second-strike abilities.

With investments in hypersonic glide vehicles and advanced guidance systems, China’s nuclear force could evolve into a flexible deterrent able to respond to varied global threats. This reflects China’s desire for comprehensive deterrence, particularly as US containment strategies and regional alliances present growing challenges.

China’s growing nuclear capabilities and transparent signalling present an opportunity to reimagine global arms control. Beijing’s missile test – along with its calibrated transparency – departs from Cold War-era adversarial postures, suggesting a shift towards a multilateral framework that includes all major nuclear powers. This new structure could establish norms to prevent escalation and foster stability.

For US-aligned countries in the Asia-Pacific, the test underscores the need to reassess defence strategies in light of the evolving power dynamics. Japan and Taiwan may pursue self-reliant frameworks, adding complexity to US regional alliances.

For China, this test marks a step forward in nuclear modernisation and positions it as a stabilising force in global security, though it raises the stakes for future dialogue that acknowledges its role within a multipolar nuclear order.

China’s ICBM test is a defining moment that invites a renewed approach to nuclear diplomacy. The global community must embrace an inclusive, forward-looking model that accounts for the strategic realities of today’s multipolar landscape.