纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英缅甸紧张局势升级中国军队在中缅边境附近实弹演习

China will hold live-fire military drills near its border with Myanmar starting on Tuesday, fortifying its boundaries with a southern neighbor that has been engulfed in a civil war for more than three years.

中国将于周二开始在靠近缅甸的边境地区举行实弹军事演习，以加强与这个南部邻国的边界安全。缅甸陷入内战已逾三年。

China’s People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command said on Monday that it would conduct both land and air exercises in the southwestern province of Yunnan to test the “joint strike capabilities of theater troops and maintain security and stability in the border areas.” China conducted two similar drills in April.

中国人民解放军南部战区周一宣布，将在西南省份云南开展空地联合演习，以“检验战区部队联合打击能力，维护边境地区安全稳定”。中国在今年4月进行了两次类似演习。

The patrols, which will last until Thursday, come less than two weeks after China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s capital, and reaffirmed Beijing’s support for the ruling military junta, which seized power in a coup in 2021. Analysts say that despite Mr. Wang’s pledge of support, Beijing is using the drills to send a signal to the junta that it would like the military to return to Chinese-led peace talks with rebels and refrain from intensifying the conflict.

此次武装巡逻将持续到周四，不到两周前，中国级别最高的外交官王毅访问了缅甸首都内比都，重申了中国对缅甸执政军政府的支持，本届军政府是在2021年通过政变夺取政权的。分析人士说，尽管王毅承诺支持，但中国政府正在用演习向军政府发出信号，表示中国希望缅甸军方重返由中国主导的与叛军的和平谈判，避免激化冲突。

Myanmar, a country of about 55 million long fractured by ethnic divisions, has been thrown into fresh chaos as the military resumed control. Thousands have been killed and tens of thousands detained by the junta, which has been accused of committing atrocities and killing civilians by bombarding the country with airstrikes.

缅甸约有5500万人口，这个国家因民族不和长期处于分裂状态，随着军方重新掌权，已陷入新的混乱。军政府受到犯下暴行的指控，外界指责它在国内用空袭轰炸杀死平民，导致了数千人死亡，还有数万人被军政府拘留。

The junta’s violence has led to the emergence of a resistance movement made up of both civilians from Myanmar’s urban areas who had become rebels and battle-hardened insurgents in the border regions who have been fighting for autonomy for decades. Together, they control about two-thirds of the country, mostly along its frontiers, while the military government holds the major cities located in the central lowlands of the Irrawaddy Valley.

军政府的暴行引发了抵抗运动。参加抵抗运动的人有来自缅甸城市地区加入了叛军的平民，也有边境地区身经百战的叛乱分子，后者几十年来一直在争取自治。他们已控制了缅甸约三分之二的领土，主要是沿边境地区，而军政府则控制着位于伊洛瓦底江中部低地的主要城市。

Resistance forces have been on the offensive for months, putting the junta on the back foot outside its strongholds. Mounting losses in troops and territory led the junta to impose a mandatory draft earlier this year.

叛军几个月来一直在发动攻势，让军政府在据点之外的地区处于不利状态。士兵和领土的不断损失导致军政府在今年早些时候采取了强制征兵做法。

China has been growing uneasy about the conflict, which has drawn closer to its borders, disrupting trade and raising concerns about the safety of Chinese nationals. Earlier this month, rebel forces overran a regional military base less than 100 miles from the Chinese border.

中国对这场冲突的不安日益增长，冲突已逼近中缅边境，扰乱了贸易，引发了对中国公民人身安全的担忧。本月早些时候，叛军攻占了一个距离中缅边境不到160公里的区域军事基地。

Myanmar “plays a crucial role in the development of China’s southwestern economy and national security,” said Song Zhongping, an independent defense analyst based in Beijing and a former Chinese military officer. “China is very concerned about peace and stability in the region, and even more concerned about the security of our borders.”

缅甸“在中国西南经济和国家安全的发展中起至关重要的作用”，北京的独立国防分析师、中国退役军官宋忠平说。“中国非常关注这个地区的和平与稳定，也非常关注我们的边境安全。”

At stake are China’s investments in Myanmar, including multibillion-dollar plans to build an economic corridor from southwestern China to the Indian Ocean so that Chinese trade can bypass the Strait of Malacca, a high-traffic waterway near Malaysia. In July, anti-junta rebels captured a Chinese-backed nickel-mining project in the north about 160 miles from Mandalay.

中国在缅甸的投资已面临风险，包括耗资数十亿美元将中国西南部与印度洋连接起来的经济走廊建设项目，这条经济走廊让中国贸易能绕过马来西亚附近交通繁忙的水道马六甲海峡。今年7月，反军政府的叛军攻占了缅甸北部距离曼德勒约250公里一个中资支持的镍矿开采项目。

China’s strategy in Myanmar has been to play both sides, said Jason Tower, the Myanmar director at the United States Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan research organization funded by the U.S. Congress. China cultivates economic, military and diplomatic ties with the junta while providing weapons and other supplies to rebel groups along the border, he said.

中国在缅甸的策略一直是与两边同时保持关系，美国和平研究所缅甸部主任杰森·托尔说，该研究所是美国国会资助的无党派研究机构。他说，中国在与缅甸军政府发展经济、军事和外交关系的同时，也向边境叛军提供武器和其他物资。

China used that influence to call for negotiations last December between the junta and rebel groups near the border called the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Talks collapsed in May, Mr. Tower said.

去年12月，中国曾利用这种影响力呼吁缅甸军政府与边境附近被称为“三兄弟联盟”的叛军组织谈判。托尔说，谈判已在今年5月破裂。

The junta has been frustrated by Chinese aid to the rebels, sending supporters to protest Beijing outside the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar’s former capital and its largest city, Mr. Tower said.

托尔说，缅甸军政府一直对中国向叛军提供援助感到失望，曾派支持者到中国驻缅甸大使馆外举行抗议活动。中国大使馆设在仰光，该市为缅甸最大的城市及前首都。

Earlier this month, after the regional military base fell, the junta leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, said that rebels were receiving arms, including drones and short-range missiles, from “foreign countries.” Though he did not name China, he said some arms and ammunition were coming from factories across the border with China. China is also a major supplier of weapons to the junta.

该区域军事基地被攻占后，缅甸军政府领导人敏昂莱大将在本月早些时候说，叛军正在从“外国”获得武器，包括无人机和短程导弹。虽然他没有点名中国，但他说，一些武器弹药来自中缅边境的工厂。中国也是缅甸军政府的主要武器供应国。

China needs to hedge because it is unclear who will ultimately hold power in Myanmar, said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

中国需要两面下注，因为目前不清楚谁将最终在缅甸掌权，新加坡国立大学政治学副教授庄嘉颖说。

“Beijing wants stability and influence. They aren’t particularly wedded to any one party or approach, it seems to me,” Mr. Chong said.

“中国希望稳定和影响力。在我看来，他们并不特别致力于任何一方或任何一种方式，”庄嘉颖说。

During Mr. Wang’s visit to Myanmar, he said he hoped that Myanmar would protect Chinese citizens and projects in the country, maintain stability along the border, and work with China on cracking down on cross-border crimes.

在访问缅甸期间，王毅曾表示希望缅甸保护中国公民和中资项目，维护边境稳定，与中国一起打击跨境犯罪。

In China’s view, the junta appears too weak to consolidate power, and the rebels too disparate to form a unity government, Mr. Tower said.

在中国看来，缅甸军政府似乎太软弱，无法巩固权力，而叛军则由多方人员组成，没有能力组建联合政府，托尔说。

China is probably concerned that the junta may step up airstrikes on rebels near the Chinese border, where the regime has virtually no presence on the ground. “If the junta wants to recover some of the territory it lost, it will resort to using heavy airstrikes in the border areas,” Mr. Tower said. “That is a sensitive issue for China.”

中国可能担心军政府也许会加大对中缅边境附近的叛军进行空袭的力度，因为军政府在边境地区几乎没有地面部队。“如果军政府想收复其失去的部分领土的话，它将不得不对边境地区进行更猛烈的空袭，”托尔说。“这对中国来说是个敏感问题。”