纽约时报中文网 - 英文原版-英Why Chinas and Russias Militaries Are Training Together

China and Russia have pressed an informal political and economic alliance against the West. Now they are stepping up the cooperation between their militaries with increasingly provocative joint war games.

Chinese and Russian long-range bombers patrolled together near Alaska for the first time last month. Days earlier, the countries held live-fire naval drills in the hotly contested South China Sea for the first time in eight years. And they have more frequently buzzed the skies and sailed the waters together near Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, where America has strategic interests.

The military exercises are, in some ways, the most vivid expression of an alignment between China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as they have sought to challenge their chief geopolitical rival, the United States.

China has been frustrated by American trade restrictions and Washington’s building of security alliances in Asia. It has pushed back by trying to court European countries with trade and building its influence among poorer countries with investments. But those efforts can go only so far in countering the dominance of the United States.

“Beijing increasingly feels that diplomatic and economic actions are not enough to get its points across to Washington, so it is relying more on its military as a tool for signaling. Partnering with Russia is a way to amplify Beijing’s messaging,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

To Washington, the exercises sow doubts about whether the United States could prevail in a war in Asia against the combined forces of China and Russia. While American war planners have long considered scenarios with China and Russia individually, they have paid less attention to the prospect of the two nuclear-armed states fighting together because it had long seemed so unlikely.

The joint Chinese and Russian bomber patrol near Alaska last month underscored the threat. By taking off from a Russian air base, nuclear-capable Chinese bombers were able to fly about 200 miles from the Alaskan coast, a distance that would have been unreachable taking off from China.

Not Just About Fighting

The strengthening alignment between China and Russia has been key to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The United States says Mr. Putin would not be able to sustain the war effort if China did not continue to buy huge quantities of Russian oil and supply Russia with dual-use technology that can be applied to the battlefield.

Beijing needs Russia as its only major-power partner to counterbalance the United States.

“China finds itself in a very difficult geopolitical situation,” said Alexander Korolev, an expert on China-Russia relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. “It doesn’t really have any allies. Russia is the only country that can make a difference.”

The biggest difference Russia brings to bear should it join China in any conflict is the threat of its nuclear arsenal, the world’s largest.

At the same time, “there are many things Russia can do to help China that doesn’t include fighting,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow in international studies at Stanford University and the author of “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power.”

Russia’s 2,500-mile land border with China could prove critical for the delivery of arms, oil and other supplies if the United States and its allies ever succeeded in imposing a sea blockade on China. Russia could also deny access to airspace near its borders, particularly close to Japan, where the United States maintains bases.

“In a protracted war scenario, that support will make it much harder to get China to capitulate,” Dr. Mastro said.

Pushing the Limits

To send an effective signal, military exercises typically have to set new precedents. That was the case on July 24 when two Chinese Xi’an H-6 and two Russian Tu-95 “Bear” nuclear-capable strategic bombers conducted a joint patrol near the United States for the first time.

The aircraft were believed to have taken off from Anadyr airfield in Chukotka, an eastern region of Russia, according to the University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, which examined satellite imagery of Chinese military aircraft at Anadyr.

The four bombers entered the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, a buffer zone in international airspace that would have been out of reach for the Xi’an H-6 if it had taken off from China, because of the plane’s 3,700-mile maximum range. The patrol, which was intercepted by U.S. and Canadian fighter jets, took place two days after the Pentagon released its new Arctic strategy report, which noted increased Chinese and Russian cooperation in the region and the threat it posed to the United States.

The use of a Russian air base by Chinese military planes may be an indication that the two militaries can communicate, work together and use each other’s resources, part of what in military speak is known as interoperability. It also reflects a growing level of trust between two countries that have not always been friendly.

The two countries have also hinted at establishing a shared missile defense system, which could provide both China and Russia with an earlier warning of a nuclear strike, allowing them to respond more quickly.

Concern in the United States

China’s and Russia’s militaries are far from being as integrated as the U.S. military is with its NATO partners, military experts say, but the growing cooperation between them has raised concerns in Washington.

A report released last month by the congressionally mandated Commission on the National Defense Strategy described China’s and Russia’s deepening alignment as “the most significant strategic development in recent years.”

Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told a Senate hearing this year that American officials needed to consider how Russia might help if China decided to invade Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing that the United States is widely expected to defend.

Such potential help might not necessarily entail joining a conflict in Asia. Becca Wasser, who runs war games at the Center for a New American Security, said a scenario that often comes up during the center’s simulations of a conflict with China is one in which Russia starts a war elsewhere that diverts American forces.

“China could look to Russia, which is increasingly becoming a junior partner in that relationship, to open a second theater to distract the United States and some of its allies,” Ms. Wasser said. “That could reduce the amount of resources and attention that are brought to bear on China.”

China and Russia have held military exercises together for two decades. China says there is nothing unusual about this military cooperation, and that it does not target any third country. It accuses the United States of being provocative by flying and sailing close to China.

Song Zhongping, an independent defense analyst based in Beijing and a former Chinese military officer, said he expected the exercises, particularly near Alaska, to grow in frequency to counter American pressure.

“Though we say the military exercises do not target any third party, it actually has a target: the hegemony of the U.S., and the bloc that the U.S. built with its alliance for containment against China,” Mr. Song said.

Olivia Wang contributed reporting.