纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国温室气体排放量已经达峰

China, the world’s biggest source of planet-warming greenhouse gases for most of the past two decades, is seemingly on the verge of bending its emissions curve from years of steep growth into a flat plateau.

在过去20年的大部分时间里，中国是世界上最大的温室气体排放国，如今它的排放曲线似乎即将从多年的急剧增长转向平稳。

The implications for climate change could scarcely be greater. Since China’s emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006, China’s global share has grown to almost a third — a huge number, even with population differences taken into account.

这对气候变化有着无比重大的意义。自2006年超过美国以来，中国的排放量在全球的占比已经增长到近三分之一——即使考虑到人口差异，这也是一个巨大的数字。

A recent spate of data from China’s government, as well as reports by energy analysts, have provided positive signs that while China’s emissions may not decrease significantly, they also may not grow. China’s president, Xi Jinping, had pledged to reach that turning point by 2030.

中国政府最近公布的一系列数据以及能源分析师的报告都提供了积极的迹象，表明虽然中国的排放量可能不会大幅减少，但可能也不会继续增长。中国国家主席习近平承诺到2030年实现碳达峰。

“The important thing to understand is that when China’s emissions stop growing, it likely follows that the world’s stop growing, too,” said Dave Jones, global insight director at Ember, an energy think tank.

能源智库Ember的全球洞察总监戴夫·琼斯表示：“需要理解的重要一点是，当中国的排放量停止增长时，全球排放量很可能也会随之停止增长。”

The biggest factor in the shift is changes to how China produces its electricity. In short, renewable sources are replacing coal, the most polluting fossil fuel.

这种转变的最大促成因素是中国电力生产方式的变化。简而言之，可再生能源正在取代煤炭，后者污染最严重的化石燃料。

Last year alone, China installed more solar panels than the United States has in its entire history, and connected most of them to its electricity grid.

仅去年一年，中国安装的太阳能电池板数量就超过了美国历史上的总和，而且其中大部分都接入了电网。

Almost two-thirds of big wind and solar plants under construction globally are in China, according to a report last week from Global Energy Monitor. That is more than eight times the wind and solar capacity being planned in the United States.

根据全球能源监测上周的一份报告，全球近三分之二在建的大型风能和太阳能发电厂位于中国。这是美国计划中的风能和太阳能装机容量的八倍多。

And in May, China generated 53 percent of its electricity from coal, its lowest share since its government began publishing energy data decades ago, while nearly all the rest of it came from non-fossil-fuel sources. “This indicated that China may have peaked” its emissions, said Belinda Schäpe, a China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

今年5月，中国的煤炭发电占比降至53%，这是自政府数十年前开始发布能源数据以来的最低水平，其余则几乎全部来自非化石燃料。“这表明中国的排放可能已经达峰，”能源与清洁空气研究中心的中国分析师贝琳达·沙佩说。

However, some observers caution that “peak” was perhaps the wrong word to describe the current trend in China.

不过，一些观察人士警告，“达峰”可能并不适合用于描述中国当前的趋势。

“We’ve been talking about whether there’s been a peak for almost a decade,” said Li Shuo, the director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Peaking assumes persistent emissions decline after it is passed. That’s not an assumption we can or should make.”

“近十年来，我们一直在讨论是否已经达峰，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕说。“达峰的前提是，排放量在达到峰值后会持续下降。这不是我们能够或应该做出的假设。”

Mr. Li said it was more likely that China’s emissions would plateau. And he cautioned that while growth in renewable energy was responsible for replacing coal in electricity generation, other factors — such as China’s recent real estate crisis and sluggish post-pandemic economy — have led to less consumption of energy overall, which might skew the data downward, but only temporarily.

李硕表示，中国的排放量更有可能趋于平稳。他提醒说，虽然可再生能源的增长确实取代了煤炭发电，但其他因素——如中国最近的房地产危机和疫情后的经济低迷——也导致了整体能源消耗的减少，这可能会使数据向下偏移，但只是暂时性的。

“If you look at China’s emissions profile of the past two decades, one particular source was hugely significant: real estate and construction, whose supply chain made up about a third of all emissions,” he said. “That’s cooling off.”

“如果你看看中国过去20年的排放情况，你会发现有一个特别重要的来源：房地产和建筑业，这两个行业的供应链约占总排放量的三分之一，”他说。“这正在降温。”

More reliable signs have come from recent policy shifts, he said. In particular, a new ban on permits for steel factories that would use coal to fire their blast furnaces could have far-reaching effects. A huge push toward electric-vehicle production has also dampened demand for oil.

他说，更可靠的迹象来自于最近的政策转变。特别是，对新增煤炭冶炼钢厂发放许可证的禁令可能产生深远影响。同时，向电动汽车生产的重大推动也降低了对石油的需求。

But, ultimately, China’s emissions trajectory will come down to how quickly renewables can displace coal from its electricity mix. While coal’s share has fallen, China is still investing in it as a power source.

但是，中国的排放轨迹最终将取决于可再生能源在电力结构中取代煤炭的速度。虽然煤炭所占的比例有所下降，但中国仍在将其作为一种电力来源进行投资。

China alone accounted for two-thirds of the world’s newly operating coal plants last year. In 2023, new coal-plant construction hit an eight-year high in China. If China were to build all the others it has proposed, it would add the equivalent of one-third of its current operating fleet. Today, China accounts for around 60 percent of the world’s coal use.

去年，仅中国就占了全球新建燃煤电厂的三分之二。2023年，中国新的燃煤电厂建设达到了8年来的最高水平。如果中国的燃煤电厂计划全部建成的话，将增加相当于其现有运营燃煤电厂三分之一的规模。目前，中国的煤炭消耗量约占全球的60%。

Some of China’s coal build-out is meant to provide a fallback option for when wind and solar generation dips. But China is also investing heavily in pumped-storage hydropower. Pumped hydro is a way to store energy by pumping water uphill to a reservoir during times of low demand for electricity, then releasing it later to generate extra electricity if demand surges.

中国的部分燃煤电厂建设项目是为了在风能和太阳能发电量下降时提供备用选择。但中国也在大力投资抽水蓄能水电。抽水蓄能是一种储存能源的方式，在电力需求较低的时候，将水抽往上游的水库，然后在需求激增时放水产生额外的电力。

Those systems could help reduce the demand for coal power during peak times.

这些系统有助于减少高峰时段对煤电的需求。

Oil and gas are also used in Chinese industry as power sources. But Mr. Li cautioned that while both China’s domestic production of petrochemicals was growing as well as its imports of them, the deciding factor in China’s emissions trajectory will be coal’s decline.

石油和天然气在中国工业中也被用作能源。但李硕警告，尽管中国国内石化产品的产量和进口量都在增长，但在中国的排放轨迹中，决定性因素将是煤炭的减少。

In the coming months, China’s government is expected to unveil new commitments to reduce emissions ahead of November’s United Nations-sponsored climate summit, COP 29, in Azerbaijan.

未来几个月，中国政府有望在11月于阿塞拜疆举行的联合国气候峰会前公布新的减排承诺。

“Diplomatic attention is fixated on the question: Has China peaked or not,” said Mr. Li. “You could imagine that if the answer is yes, so far ahead of schedule, it might give China more reason to be even more ambitious with its reduction targets.”

“外交注意力集中在一个问题上：中国是否已经达峰，”李硕说。“你可以想象，如果答案是肯定的，那么提早到了这个程度可能会让中国有更多理由去制定更具雄心的减排目标。”