The Guardian-Chinas economic growth slows amid weak retail spending
July 15, 2024 2 min 393 words
这篇报道主要谈论中国经济增长放缓，尤其是零售支出疲软。分析师称，中国消费者因房产和股票价格下跌以及工资增长缓慢，不愿购买大额商品。中国的年度经济增长率从第一季度的1.5降至第二季度的0.7，低于金融市场预期。零售销售年增长率从3.2降至2，为18个月来的最低水平。 评论： 该报道存在一定偏见，但同时也指出了一些真实存在的问题。中国经济确实面临一定下行压力，零售支出增长放缓可能受多重因素影响，包括疫情管控后的消费回落全球经济不景气等。但《卫报》的报道有过度渲染之嫌，用词较为负面，例如weakslowslowest等，给读者一种中国经济出现严重问题的印象。此外，报道没有全面考虑中国政府采取的刺激措施，例如基础设施投资高科技制造业投入等。虽然报道提到中国政府设定的5增长目标，但认为这是analysts consider to be a stretch，即分析师认为难以实现。然而，该报道没有全面考虑中国经济的韧性和潜力，以及中国政府政策的有效性。综上，该报道有失客观公正，存在一定偏见。
Pressure on Beijing to take steps to improve Chinese consumer confidence has intensified after news that weak retail spending dragged down the growth rate of the world’s second biggest economy.
With falling house prices still acting as a drag on activity, official figures showed the Chinese economy expanding at an annual rate of 4.7% in the second quarter – much weaker than the 5.1% expected by the financial markets.
Annual retail sales growth slowed from 3.2% to 2% in the three months ending in June – the weakest in 18 months – and fell slightly in June alone.
Lynn Song, the chief China economist at ING bank, said retail sales growth was the lowest since the country emerged from Covid-19 lockdowns and showed the depressed state of consumer confidence remained a big headwind to the economic recovery.
“A negative wealth effect from falling property and stock prices, as well as low wage growth amid various industries’ cost cutting is dragging consumption and causing a pivot from big-ticket purchases toward a basic ‘eat, drink and play’ theme,” Song said.
The government in Beijing has set a growth target for 2024 of 5% – something analysts consider to be a stretch in the absence of tax cuts, spending increases and measures to help the property market.
On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.7% in the three months to June, compared with a downwardly revised 1.5% in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
To counter soft domestic demand and its property crisis, China has increased infrastructure investment and ploughed funds into hi-tech manufacturing.
Strong export growth has partly compensated for the reluctance of consumers to spend. Figures released last week showed China’s exports in June were up 8.6% from a year earlier, while imports shrank by 2.3%.
Duncan Wrigley, the chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macro, said: “The property market is showing tentative signs of bottoming out. New home prices sank 0.67% month on month in June, a trivial improvement from the 0.71% drop in May. Preowned home prices dropped 0.85%, after the 1.00% dive in May. Residential sales value fell 12.2% year on year in June, partly thanks to base effects, after crashing 26.4% in May.”