纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国第二季度经济增速放缓消费支出持续疲软

China’s economy slowed markedly through the spring after a strong start this year, according to official data released on Monday, as a real estate crash caused consumers and companies to spend more cautiously.

周一发布的官方数据显示，由于房地产市场崩盘导致消费者和企业支出更加谨慎，中国经济在经历了今年的强劲开局后在整个春季明显放缓。

The latest growth statistics for the world’s second-largest economy, covering April through June, put further pressure on the Communist Party as its leaders gathered on Monday in Beijing for a four-day conclave to set a course for the country’s economic future.

中共周一在北京召开为期四天的领导层会议，为中国经济的未来制定方向，而世界第二大经济体4月至6月的最新增长统计数据给中共带来了进一步的压力。

In a country known for strict controls on the flow of information, the Chinese government is maintaining a particularly tight grip ahead of the party gathering, known as the Third Plenum, which typically takes place every five years. China’s statistical bureau canceled its usual news conference that accompanies the release of economic data and Chinese companies are mostly avoiding the release of earnings reports this week.

在一个以严格控制信息流动而闻名的国家，中国政府在通常每五年召开一次的三中全会之前施加的控制格外严格。中国统计局取消了通常伴随经济数据发布举行的新闻发布会，中国企业也大多避免在本周公布财报。

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, is trying to win confidence in his policies at home and abroad as growth falters and the property market suffers.

在中国经济增长放缓、房地产市场遭受重创之际，中国最高领导人习近平正努力赢得国内外对其政策的信任。

China has tried to offset the real estate downturn by building more factories and stepping up exports. But rapid expansion of manufacturing has led to a glut of goods, from chemicals to cars, and a lot of unused industrial capacity. Companies have sharply reduced prices to compete for consumers, who nonetheless remain reluctant to spend, long a problem for the investment-led economy.

中国试图通过建设更多工厂和扩大出口来抵消房地产市场的低迷。但制造业的快速扩张导致了从化学品到汽车等商品的过剩，大量工业产能闲置。企业大幅降低价格以争夺消费者，尽管如此，消费者仍不愿消费，这是长期困扰投资导向型经济的一个问题。

At the same time, China’s record-setting export surge is provoking a global backlash of higher tariffs, as countries fear the flood of Chinese goods will overwhelm local industries. Yet in China, the extra export revenue has not been enough to fully offset weak consumer spending at home, resulting in a slowdown that poses a problem for China’s leadership as ordinary citizens are squeezed and foreign investors become disenchanted.

与此同时，中国创纪录的出口激增正在引发全球对提高关税的反弹，因为各国担心中国商品的洪流将淹没当地工业。然而，在中国，额外的出口收入不足以完全抵消国内消费支出的疲软，导致的经济放缓给中国领导层带来了难题，与此同时，普通民众受到挤压，外国投资者也变得失望。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that the economy grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months — a little below the expectations of most economists in the West. When projected out for the entire year, the data indicates that China’s economy grew during the spring at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent — less than half its growth rate in the first three months of this year.

中国国家统计局表示，第二季度经济比前三个月增长了0.7%，略低于大多数西方经济学家的预期。推算全年，数据显示中国经济在春季的年增长率约为2.8%，不到今年前三个月增长率的一半。

The statistical bureau also revised down its estimate of growth in the first quarter. That growth rate, projected out for the full year, was about 6.1 percent, not the 6.6 percent rate that was disclosed in April.

国家统计局还下调了第一季度所做的增长预期。预计全年的增长率约为6.1%，而不是4月公布的6.6%。

The slowdown in growth was less apparent in the Chinese government’s preferred statistic: how much larger the Chinese economy was in the second quarter of this year versus the same period last year. This measure showed the economy had grown 4.7 percent over the past 12 months.

中国政府看重的统计数据是今年第二季度中国经济规模比去年同期大了多少，根据这个数据，经济增长的放缓不那么明显。该指标显示，过去12个月，中国经济增长了4.7%。

The Chinese government is trying to revitalize consumer spending. Economists inside and outside of China have contended that Beijing should sharply increase state pensions, government-provided health insurance and welfare payments. Such measures could be funded by trimming China’s extensive military buildup or by transferring dividends and shares from state-owned enterprises to the national pension fund. But the government has been reluctant to redirect large sums of money from government agencies or state-owned enterprises.

中国政府正试图重振消费支出。中国内外的经济学家都认为，北京应该大幅增加国家养老金、政府提供的医疗保险和福利支出。这些措施的资金来源可以是削减中国大规模的军事建设，或者将国有企业的红利和股份转移到国家养老基金。但政府一直不愿意从政府机构或国有企业调拨大笔资金。

Few expect drastic moves at the Communist Party conclave. The country continues to pursue an investment-led strategy that focuses on erecting more buildings instead of putting money into consumers’ pockets.

几乎没有人预计在中共的中央领导层会议上有什么大动作。中国继续奉行投资主导的战略，重点是盖起更多建筑，而不是把钱放进消费者的口袋。

That trend was visible on a recent evening in Nanchang, a city in south-central China. The Wanshou Palace neighborhood has been extensively renovated with stone walkways, free music shows and many shops and restaurants. Throngs of tourists milled in the streets taking photos, but almost no one entered the stores or eateries to spend money.

最近的一个晚上，在中国中南部城市南昌，这种趋势显而易见。万寿宫附近被大规模翻新，有石头步道、免费音乐表演，以及许多商店和餐馆。成群游客在街上拍照，但几乎没有人进入商店或餐馆消费。

Recent actions by local governments have taken money from households, further eroding their ability to spend. Faced with falling revenue because of the country’s real estate crisis, local governments have stepped up tax collection and audits, and have begun raising fees for services like natural gas, water and sometimes rail travel.

地方政府最近采取的行动拿走了家庭的财富，进一步削弱了他们的消费能力。面对房地产危机导致的收入下降，地方政府加强了税收和审计，并且开始提高天然气、水等服务的收费，有时还提高铁路旅行的费用。

Car sales have slumped in recent months, even though automakers have cut prices to attract buyers.

尽管汽车制造商通过降价来吸引买家，但近几个月来，汽车销量还是大幅下滑。

Many shoppers say that they buy the cheapest products they can find to stretch their limited budgets. Gong Yilan, a 21-year-old teacher, paid the equivalent of $3.40 for a pair of blue earrings as a souvenir during a vacation in Jingdezhen, another city in south-central China.

许多购物者表示，他们会尽可能买最便宜的产品，节省有限的预算。21岁的龚依兰（音）是一名教师，她在中国中南部的景德镇度假时，花了25元买下一对蓝色耳环作为纪念。

“If I spend too much on costly things, I don’t have enough money to support my next trip,” she said.

“如果花太多在觉得很贵的东西上，手上没有钱没有办法支撑我下一次出去玩，”她说。

Local governments face financial difficulties mainly because of dwindling sales to developers of leases on state land. Builders are struggling to finish promised housing units and have scant cash to spare for investing in land for future projects.

地方政府面临财政困难的主要原因是，向开发商出售国有土地租约的数量不断减少。建筑商正在努力完成承诺的住房项目，而且没有多少现金可以投资于未来项目的土地。

“Simply put, with 20 million or so unfinished, presold homes behind in their delivery schedules, the housing crisis is not over yet,” Nomura, a Japanese bank, said in a research report on Wednesday.

日本银行野村在周三的一份研究报告中称，“简而言之，还有大约2000万套未完工的预售房没有交付，住房危机还没有结束。”

Until recently, housing construction was one of China’s biggest industries, creating millions of jobs. Apartment sales finally appear to be leveling off after three years of declines, but at a very low level. As in many countries, the commercial real estate sector is starting to run into trouble in China as well.

直到前不久，住房建设一直是中国最大的产业之一，创造了数以百万计的就业岗位。在经历了三年的下滑之后，公寓销售似乎终于趋于平稳，但处于非常低的水平。与许多国家一样，中国的商业房地产行业也开始陷入困境。

Construction companies in China are trying to weather not just a slowing pace of domestic building but also dwindling orders from overseas. China has put a limit on loans to developing countries over the past several years, as many of these borrowers have struggled to repay previous loans.

中国的建筑公司不仅在努力应对国内建设步伐放缓的问题，还面临着海外订单减少的困境。过去几年，中国限制了对发展中国家的贷款，因为许多这样的国家难以偿还以前的贷款。

Zhongmei Engineering Group, a Chinese construction company in Nanchang, used to build as much as 40 percent of its projects overseas, mainly in Africa. But now these projects are less than 20 percent of its business.

中煤建设集团是一家位于南昌的中国建筑公司，过去有40%的项目是在海外建造的，主要是在非洲。但现在这些项目只占其业务的不到20%。

“They are not financially able to hire our company,” said Qin Jian, the general manager of Zhongmei’s international operations.

“他们没有财力聘请我们，”中煤建设集团国际业务总经理秦健（音）说。

Like many Chinese construction companies, Zhongmei has turned to building more infrastructure and factories in China. Beijing has helped local governments borrow money to spend on new sewers, water lines, roads and other infrastructure.

和许多中国建筑公司一样，中煤建设集团已经转向在中国建设更多的基础设施和工厂。中国政府帮助地方政府借款，用于新建下水道、供水管道、道路和其他基础设施。

A persistent worry is that China may have so much excess factory capacity that the economy may see a broad decline in prices — a dangerous phenomenon known as deflation. Falling prices give consumers an incentive to put off purchases in hopes of getting a better deal later and make it harder for borrowers to earn enough to repay their debts. Overall debt levels in China are higher than in the United States relative to the size of their economies, mainly because of heavy borrowing by state-owned enterprises. Many Chinese are struggling to make mortgage payments on apartments that are falling in value.

一个长期存在的担忧是，中国可能有太多过剩的工厂产能，以至于经济可能出现广泛的价格下跌，这是一种被称为通货紧缩的危险现象。价格下降会刺激消费者推迟购物，希望以后能买到更划算的商品，同时也会增加借款人赚取足够收入偿还债务的难度。相对于两国的经济规模，中国的总体债务水平高于美国，这主要是因为国有企业的大量借贷。许多中国人还在努力为正在贬值的公寓偿还抵押贷款。

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday that wholesale prices charged by factories, farms and other producers had dropped 0.8 percent in June from a year earlier. Consumer prices are still rising, barely: up just 0.2 percent last month from the year before.

国家统计局周三宣布，6月，工厂、农场和其他生产者的批发价格同比下降0.8%。消费者价格仍在上涨，但涨幅不大：上个月仅比去年同期上涨0.2%。

The Chinese economy has had two bright spots in recent weeks, however. A decision to stop requiring visas for tourists from more European countries and Australia and New Zealand has produced an immediate jump in international visitors. Hotels in the heart of Shanghai and Beijing have raised prices sharply. But hotels even a couple miles away still charge rates that have barely increased since the worst days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

不过，最近几周中国经济出现了两个亮点。来自更多欧洲国家以及澳大利亚和新西兰的游客不再需要签证，这一决定使国际游客数量立即激增。上海和北京中心地带的酒店大幅涨价。但是除此之外的酒店，哪怕只是偏出几公里，其价格自新冠疫情最严重的日子以来也几乎没有上涨。

Much more important for the Chinese economy has been a powerful boom in exports of manufactured goods. The country’s overall trade surplus — the amount by which exports exceed imports — surged last month to a record $99 billion.

对中国经济来说，更为重要的是制成品出口的强劲增长。该国的总体贸易顺差——出口超过进口的金额——上个月飙升至创纪录的990亿美元。