纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英北约对中国的公开谴责意味着什么

China’s tight bond with Russia is facing renewed condemnation from Washington and its allies after NATO issued its strongest accusation yet that Chinese technology is sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

针对中国技术正在支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争，北约发出了迄今为止最强烈的指责，中俄的紧密联系再次受到华盛顿及其盟友们的谴责。

Leaders from the NATO alliance, meeting in Washington, declared that Beijing “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history” without facing repercussions.

正在华盛顿举行峰会的北约国家领导人宣布，中国政府“为欧洲近期历史上最大的战争赋能”的做法不面临恶果“是不可能的”。

Despite a widening web of Western bans and restrictions, Chinese semiconductors, machine tools and other parts have become vital to Russia’s arms industries, helping Moscow to keep up its grinding war, say American and European officials, intelligence agencies and security experts.

美国和欧洲的官员、情报部门和安全专家表示，尽管西方国家不断扩大禁令和限制，但中国的半导体、机床和其他零部件已成为俄罗斯军工行业必不可少的东西，帮助莫斯科继续维持无休止的战争。

But China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia have repeatedly said that their countries’ strong relationship is a bulwark against American dominance. Mr. Xi is unlikely to easily bow to NATO’s demands.

但中国领导人习近平和俄罗斯总统普京已多次表示，两国的牢固关系是抵抗美国主导地位的保障。习近平不太可能轻易屈服于北约的要求。

What did NATO say about China?

北约对中国说了什么？

NATO’s declaration on Wednesday, its most full-throated so far about China, implied that its 32 member governments would step up actions against China unless Beijing limits exports of dual-use components and technology to Russia.

北约周三发布了迄今为止对中国最强烈的谴责，暗示其32个成员国的政府将加强针对中国的行动，除非中国政府限制向俄罗斯出口军民两用零部件和技术。

“It’s a very rare move for NATO to openly accuse China, saying Beijing is massively supporting Russia’s defense industrial base,” said Liou Shiau-shyang, an expert on China and Russia at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded research group in Taiwan. “Clearly, the United States has won over some skeptics who did not see China as a key player in the Russia-Ukraine war.”

“北约公开指责中国，称北京正在大力支持俄罗斯的国防工业基地，这是非常罕见的做法，”政府资助的台湾研究机构国防与安全研究院的中俄问题专家刘萧翔说。“显然，美国已说服了一些怀疑论者，他们以前不认为中国是俄乌战争的关键参与者。”

NATO has in recent years become more vocal about China’s growing power, especially its trade ties and technology exports to Russia after Mr. Putin launched his full invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

近年来，北约越来越毫不保留地对中国日益增长的实力发表看法，尤其是在普京2022年初对乌克兰发动大规模侵略战争后，它对中俄贸易关系和技术出口的看法。

The NATO leaders called Beijing “a decisive enabler” of Russia’s war. They also broadly took aim at Chinese actions such as with cyberespionage and disinformation, calling them “systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security.”

北约领导人称中国政府是俄乌战争的“决定性推手”。他们还对中国的行为进行了广泛批评，比如中国的网络间谍和虚假信息行动，称这些行动“对欧洲-大西洋安全构成系统性挑战”。

How close are China and Russia?

中国和俄罗斯的关系有多密切？

Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin see in each other like-minded leaders with shared fundamental interests of countering pressure and encirclement by the United States and its allies. Mr. Xi has met Mr. Putin more than 40 times since Mr. Xi took office in 2012, most recently a little over a week ago.

习近平和普京视彼此为志同道合的领导人，在对抗美国及其盟友的压力和围堵方面有着共同的根本利益。自从2012年上任以来，习近平已与普京举行了40多次会晤，最近一次是在一周多前。

In early 2022, weeks before Mr. Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, the two leaders said that their countries’ partnership “has no limits.” Beijing has refused to condemn the invasion, or even call it an invasion.

2022年初，就在普京入侵乌克兰的几周前，这两名领导人说中俄伙伴关系“无止境”。中国政府拒绝谴责入侵，甚至不愿称其为入侵。

But China has shown there are some limits to its support for Russia, as Beijing seeks to shore up growth and maintain access to American banks. Chinese companies have generally avoided exporting whole weapons systems to Russia that could draw bans and punishment from Western governments.

但随着中国政府寻求提振经济增长、希望保持与美国银行的业务往来，中国已表明它对俄罗斯的支持有一定限度。中国公司已普遍避免向俄罗斯出口整套武器系统，那样做可能让它们受到西方政府的禁令和惩罚。

Instead, Chinese manufacturers and traders have become inventive at skirting detection, especially at selling “dual-use” technology, which can be employed either for civilian or military needs.

中国的制造商和贸易商们已经变得深谙规避之道，尤其是在向俄罗斯销售军民两用技术方面。

What has China been supplying and getting in return?

中国向俄罗斯提供了什么？得到了什么回报？

A growing pile of evidence from foreign intelligence agencies, investigators and journalists indicates that Chinese companies have rapidly expanded technology exports that end up in Russian drones, military aircraft, missiles and other weapons used on the battlefields of Ukraine.

外国情报部门、调查人员和记者有越来越多的证据表明，中国公司已迅速扩大了技术出口，这些技术最终被用在俄罗斯的无人机、军用飞机、导弹，及其在乌克兰战场上使用的其他武器中。

Sometimes, Chinese companies sell components, such as light sensors or microchips that end up in Russian weapons. Sometimes, they sell underlying manufacturing technology, such as machine tools, that helps keep Russian weapons manufacturers running.

有时，中国公司出售的零部件，如光传感器或微芯片，最终被用于俄罗斯武器。有时，它们将生产这些东西的基础制造技术（如机床）卖给俄罗斯，帮助该国的武器制造商维持运转。

The outcome, say analysts, is that Chinese know-how has become vital to sustaining Russia’s war effort, even if Beijing isn’t selling assembled weapons. The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on dozens of Chinese companies, as well as traders in Hong Kong and elsewhere who sell the parts on.

分析人士认为，结果就是，中国的专业知识成为了俄罗斯维持战争努力的关键，尽管北京不向它出售组装好的武器。拜登政府已对数十家中国公司，以及在香港等地销售这些零部件的贸易商实施了制裁。

“Sometimes, Chinese companies supplying Russia use chains of intermediary companies that can include more than a dozen firms,” said an assessment of sanctions on Russia from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence released in April. “In other cases, descriptions of items in shipments are intentionally vague and the volume of goods exported are unreported.”

“有时，为俄罗斯供货的中国公司使用可能包括十几家公司在内的中间公司链，”美国国家情报总监办公室今年4月发布的对俄制裁评估报告中写道。“其他情况下，（它们对）所发货物的描述故意含糊其辞，也不报告出口货物的数量。”

The murkiness of the trade makes it difficult to estimate its scale — and Russia also still illicitly buys parts from Western firms. One study from the Kyiv School of Economics Institute and Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions said 59 percent of Russia’s imports of “critical components” that can go into war-fighting equipment originated in China.

这些贸易的不透明让人很难估计其规模，而且，俄罗斯仍在从西方公司非法购买零部件。来自基辅经济学院以及由叶尔马克与麦克福尔共同担任主席的制裁俄罗斯国际工作组的一项研究称，俄罗斯进口的可用于作战设备的“关键部件”有59%源自中国。

Why are NATO countries criticizing China now?

北约国家为什么现在批评中国？

NATO’s warning appears to reflect rising worry that Russia’s resurgent military — helped by Chinese know-how — has Ukraine on the back foot. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, told a news conference last month that China’s backdoor support helped Mr. Putin keep his grinding war going.

北约发出警告似乎反映出日益增长的担忧，他们认为，在中国专业知识的帮助下，俄罗斯军力再度复苏，已让乌克兰陷入不利局面。美国国务卿布林肯和北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在上月的一个新闻发布会上表示，中国的幕后支持在帮助普京维持其无休止战争的运行。

About 70 percent of Russia’s imports of machine tools, and 90 percent of its microelectronics, came from China, Mr. Blinken noted. “That has enabled Russia to keep that defense industrial base going, to keep the war machine going, to keep the war going,” he said.

布林肯指出，俄罗斯进口机床的约70%和进口微电子产品的约90%来自中国。“这使俄罗斯能够维持其国防工业基地的运转，维持战争机器的运转，维持战争的继续进行，”他说。

China’s technology components have become increasingly important for Russian forces as they learn new ways to jam and stymie Ukrainian forces’ drones and communications, said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

位于柏林的卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心的主任亚历山大·加布耶夫表示，随着俄罗斯军队学会干扰和阻碍乌克兰军队无人机和通信的新方法，中国的技术部件已变得越来越重要。

“At the same time, I think that China is also very interested in getting hold of the Russian innovations and how Russians are doing it,” Mr. Gabuev said.

“与此同时，我认为中国也对掌握俄罗斯的创新技术、了解俄罗斯人是如何做的非常感兴趣，”加布耶夫说。

How is China likely to respond to NATO’s warning?

中国可能如何回应北约的警告

China has repeatedly rejected accusations from Washington and other Western governments that its trade with Russia amounts to backing Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine.

中国一再否认来自华盛顿和其他西方政府的指控，即中俄贸易等同于支持普京的乌克兰战争。

“It’s brimming with prejudice, smears and provocation,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said Thursday. He also warned of damage to Chinese relations with Europe, suggesting that policymakers in Beijing may be especially worried that the NATO warning could augur more pressure from European member states of NATO.

“涉华内容充满偏见、抹黑和挑衅，”中国外交部发言人林剑周四说。他还警告，中欧关系将受到损害，暗示北京的政策制定者们可能特别担心北约的警告可能预示着来自北约欧洲成员国的更多压力。

Natalie Sabanadze, a senior research fellow at Chatham House in London and co-author of a recent study of Chinese-Russian ties, said she expected European Union countries to “start sanctioning Chinese companies slowly, while carefully weighing consequences and a potential backlash.”

纳塔利·萨巴纳泽是位于伦敦的皇家国际事务研究所的高级研究员，也是最近发表的一份研究中俄关系论文的合著者，她说，预计欧盟国家将“逐渐开始制裁中国公司，同时谨慎权衡这样做的后果和潜在的反弹”。

NATO’s warning, she said, “tells China that there will be costs.”

她说，北约的警告在“告诉中国，那样做是要付出代价的”。

Chinese companies may try to ward off those risks by pulling back, at least for now, from some of their technology trade with Russia, said Mr. Liou, the expert in Taiwan. But in the longer term, he and other experts said, China was unlikely to turn its back on Mr. Putin.

中国公司也许会试图通过至少暂时减少与俄罗斯的部分技术贸易来规避这些风险，台湾的专家刘萧翔表示。但他和其他专家认为，从长远来看，中国不太可能抛弃普京。

After all, while NATO urged China to choke off critical technology exports to Russia, NATO also described China as a systemic threat to Western powers, which may only reinforce Mr. Xi’s commitment to Mr. Putin as his partner.

毕竟，北约在敦促中国停止向俄罗斯出口关键技术的同时，也将中国描述为西方各国的系统性威胁，这可能只会加强习近平把普京作为合作伙伴的承诺。

“If I were Xi Jinping, I would certainly not be tempted by the statement to throw Putin under the bus,” said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who studies Chinese-Russian relations. “Xi Jinping totally sees Russia as an important strategic player.”

“如果我是习近平，我肯定不会受这份声明的引诱，抛弃普京，”在约翰霍普金斯大学的高级国际研究学院研究中俄关系的教授谢尔盖·拉琴科说。“习近平完全将俄罗斯视为重要的战略参与者。”