纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英跨国品牌担心过度依赖中国印度是未来吗

Melissa & Doug had a situation. For decades, the American toy brand had leaned heavily on factories in China to make its products — wooden puzzles, stuffed animals, play mats. Suddenly, that course looked risky.

玛丽莎安德(Melissa & Doug)遇到了麻烦。几十年来，这个美国玩具品牌一直严重依赖中国工厂来生产产品，从木制拼图、毛绒玩具到游戏垫等等。突然间，这种做法似乎风险很大。

It was February 2021, and the world was besieged by a pandemic. Lockdowns disrupted Chinese factories. Trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing were undermining the benefits of depending on plants in China. President Donald J. Trump had slapped tariffs on a broad variety of Chinese imports, increasing their prices, and President Biden extended that policy.

那是2021年2月，世界被一场大流行所围困。封锁措施扰乱了中国工厂的生产。华盛顿和北京之间的贸易敌对行动在损害依赖中国工厂所带来的好处。特朗普总统对中国进口的各种商品征收关税，导致价格上涨，拜登总统又延长了这一政策。

Melissa & Doug was eager to shift some production to other countries. Which explained the arrival of its chief supply chain officer at a factory in Greater Noida, a fast-growing city about 30 miles southeast of the Indian capital, New Delhi.

玛丽莎安德急于将部分生产转移到其他国家。其首席供应链官因此来到了大诺伊达的工厂，这是印度首都新德里东南约48公里处的一座快速发展的城市。

The factory was owned by a family business called Sunlord. The Melissa & Doug executive was surprised to see that the plant could make high-quality wooden toys, at prices comparable to those in China. Late last year, Sunlord completed its first batch of products for Melissa & Doug, a modest order of about 10,000 items, and now is cranking out 25,000 per month.

这家工厂属于一家名为Sunlord的家族企业。玛丽莎安德的高管惊讶地发现，这家工厂竟然可以生产高品质的木制玩具，而且价格与中国的工厂不相上下。去年年底，Sunlord完成了为玛丽莎安德生产的第一批产品，订单不大，大约1万件，而现在每月是2.5万件。

“What they want is 20 to 30 percent of their production being done in India,” said Sunlord’s director, Amitabh Kharbanda. “India has a lot of positive vibes right now.”

“他们想把20%至30%的生产放在印度，”Sunlord的负责人阿米塔布·卡尔班达说。“印度现在有很多积极的能量。”

In a global marketplace reshaped by volatile forces — not least the animosity between the United States and China — India shows signs of emerging as a potentially significant place to manufacture products. Multinational brands that have for decades relied on Chinese factories are expanding to India as they seek to limit the vulnerabilities of concentrating production in any single country.

在动荡之力——尤其是中美之间的敌意——重塑全球市场之际，印度展示出可能成为重要的产品制造地的迹象。几十年来一直依赖中国工厂的跨国品牌正在向印度扩张，因为它们希望限制将生产集中在任何单一国家的脆弱性。

The shift to India could make the global supply chain more resilient, reducing its susceptibility to shocks. It could also boost fortunes in India, which missed out on the manufacturing boom that lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty in East Asia — first in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, then in China and, more recently, in Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.

向印度的转移可以提高全球供应链的弹性，降低受冲击的可能性，还能促进印度的发展。印度错过了使东亚数亿人摆脱贫困的制造业繁荣——首先是日本、韩国和台湾，接着是中国，近些年是泰国、印度尼西亚和越南。

Though roughly one billion people are of working age in India, the country has only 430 million jobs, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent research institution in Mumbai. And most of those who are counted as employed endure a precarious existence as day laborers and farmhands. Growing exports could be a source of new jobs — especially for women, who have been largely shut out of the formal working ranks.

据孟买的独立研究机构印度经济监测中心称，虽然印度约有10亿适龄劳动人口，但全国仅有4.3亿个工作岗位。而且大多数就业者都是日工和农民，过着极其不稳定的生活。不断增长的出口可能会带来新的就业机会，尤其是对妇女而言，因为她们在很大程度上被排除在正规劳动人口之外。

India’s manufacturing growth remains nascent and tenuous. In its nearly 80 years as an independent nation, the country has typically been ruled by stultifying bureaucracy, ardor for self-sufficiency and disdain for international trade.

印度制造业的发展仍处于起步阶段，十分脆弱。在作为独立国家的近80年历史中，印度一直被僵化的官僚主义、对自给自足的热衷，以及对国际贸易的蔑视所累。

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has altered that perception, winning plaudits from business leaders for streamlining regulations and championing industry. But this has produced more speeches than paychecks: Manufacturing makes up only 13 percent of India’s economy, a lower share than a decade ago, when Mr. Modi took office. His authoritarian bent and demonization of India’s Muslim minority stoke doubts about his leadership, risking social strife that could undermine the country’s appeal.

总理莫迪改变了这一看法，他简化法规、支持产业发展，因而赢得了商界领袖的赞誉。但这带来的夸夸其谈多于创造的工作岗位：制造业如今只占印度经济的13%，比莫迪十年前上任时还低。他的威权倾向和对印度穆斯林少数民族的妖魔化激起了人们对其领导能力的怀疑，并有可能引发社会冲突，从而削弱印度的吸引力。

And Mr. Modi’s disappointing performance in recent national elections yielded greater uncertainty. After losing its Parliament majority, his Hindu nationalist party was forced to forge a coalition to maintain power — a wild card for future governance.

而莫迪在最近全国大选中令人失望的表现则带来了更大的不确定性。在失去议会多数席位后，他所领导的印度教民族主义政党被迫结成联盟以维持权力，这对未来的治理来说是一个不确定因素。

Over the past 10 years, even as India has aggressively built out ports and highways, its basic infrastructure has remained patchy, challenging the movement of raw materials and finished goods. Even those involved in Indian manufacturing wonder about the country’s ability to handle a surge of growth.

在过去10年里，尽管印度大力建设港口和高速公路，但基本基础设施仍然不完善，给原材料和制成品的运输带来了挑战。就连印度制造业的从业者也怀疑印度是否有能力应对快速的增长。

American brands “see the strength which India brings to the table,” said Kailesh Shah, managing director of All Time Plastics, which operates a kitchenware factory north of Mumbai. But American companies rely so heavily on Chinese industry that even a modest shift could have big consequences.

在孟买北部经营一家厨具工厂的全时塑料公司的总经理凯莱什·沙阿说，美国品牌“看到了印度的实力”。但美国公司对中国工业的依赖程度如此之高，即使是微小的转变也会带来巨大的后果。

“Even taking out 5 percent of those programs will flood the factories in India,” Mr. Shah said.

沙阿说：“即使取消其中5%的生产，也会把印度的工厂填满。”

China remains China — a formidable country boasting the know-how and infrastructure to make virtually everything cheaply in mass quantities.

中国仍然是一个强大的国家，拥有可以低成本大规模生产几乎所有产品的技术和基础设施。

India Has the Size

印度有体量

Not for the first time, the world echoes with pronouncements that India is finally on the verge of seizing its destiny as a major manufacturing power. Such rhetoric previously failed to translate into reality. But this time, India’s mission is helped by geopolitical realities.

世界各地都在宣称，印度终于即将抓住其作为制造大国的命运，这并非第一次。以前，这些言论未能转化为现实。但这一次，印度的使命得到了地缘政治现实的帮助。

Last year, in a survey of American companies with operations in China by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, 40 percent said they were shifting planned investments to other countries, or intending to do so, because of tensions between Washington and Beijing.

去年，上海美国商会对在中国开展业务的美国公司进行了一项调查，40%的公司表示，由于华盛顿和北京之间的紧张关系，它们正在或打算将计划中的投资转移到其他国家。

Most of the companies were looking to Southeast Asia. Mexico is especially well positioned to capture additional orders, given its proximity to and trade pact with the United States. But those countries are puny compared with China, limiting how much additional business they can absorb. They also remain significantly dependent on Chinese industry for key components and raw materials.

大多数公司将目光投向了东南亚。墨西哥拥有特别的优势，可以利用毗邻美国的地理位置以及贸易协定获得更多订单。但这些国家还无法与中国相比，这限制了它们吸收业务的数量。此外，它们在关键部件和原材料方面也仍然严重依赖中国的产业。

India presents a unique proposition as a country of 1.4 billion people, making it even larger than China. With abundant raw materials, from cotton to iron ore to chemicals, it holds the potential to develop its own supply chain. If any country might someday replicate China’s role in the manufacturing realm, India may possess the best shot.

印度独一无二的优势是其14亿人口，让它成为超越中国的人口大国。从棉花、铁矿石到化学品，印度拥有丰富的原材料，具备发展自己的供应链的潜力。如果说有哪个国家有朝一日可能复制中国在制造业的角色，印度也许是机会最大的。

These attributes explain why Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is aggressively expanding its pursuit of suppliers in India, with the goal of increasing its purchases to $10 billion a year by 2027, from about $3 billion in 2020. Apple is entrusting Indian factories with growing slices of the enterprise for making iPhones.

这些特性解释了为什么全球最大的零售商沃尔玛正在积极扩大对印度供应商的采购，目标是到2027年将采购额从2020年的约30亿美元提高到100亿美元。苹果也正在将越来越多的iPhone制造业务交给印度工厂

“I do not foresee future investments of American companies going into China,” said Amitabh Kant, a senior government official who is close to Mr. Modi. “All of them are shifting their manufacturing to India. It’s a massive opportunity to create jobs.”

“我不认为美国公司未来会在中国投资，”与莫迪关系密切的高级政府官员阿米塔布·康特说。“所有这些公司都在把生产转移到印度。这是一个创造就业机会的大好机会。”

European companies are similarly inclined.

欧洲企业也有类似的倾向。

“There’s been way too much dependence on consumer goods from China,” said Uli Scherraus, managing director of TecPoint, a German retailer of steak knives, cutting boards and grilling accessories. “What everyone is learning the hard way is that it’s not good to rely on one supplier for anything.”

“我们对中国生产的消费品的依赖程度太高了，”出售牛排刀、砧板和烧烤配件的德国零售商TecPoint的总经理乌利·舍劳斯表示。“每个人都通过教训认识到了，任何东西只依赖一家供应商都是不可取的。”

‘This Is a Big Order’

“这是一笔大订单”

For India, the hope is that an influx of multinational brands will spread the bounty of manufacturing beyond the south of the country, where auto plants and technology businesses have proliferated.

印度希望跨国品牌的涌入能把制造业的丰厚收获扩展到南部以外的地方，那里已经涌现出大量汽车厂和科技企业。

At the center of that vision is India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, which has long been synonymous with rural poverty. Suddenly, representatives from retailers in North America and Europe are descending to explore possible factory sites.

这一愿景的中心是印度人口最多的邦——北方邦，该邦长期以来一直是农村贫困的代名词。突然间，来自北美和欧洲的零售商代表纷纷前来考察可能的工厂选址。

“It’s a tantalizing possibility, a potential game changer,” said Arvind Subramanian, a former economic adviser to the Modi government and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s 225 million people, so if you can get something going there, where you have lots of unskilled labor and the young population is growing, in a sense it could be like what China was 40 years ago.”

“这是一种诱人的可能性，可能会改变游戏规则，”莫迪政府的前经济顾问、现任华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员的阿尔温德·苏布拉马尼安说。“那里有2.25亿人口，有很多不熟练的劳动力，年轻人口正在增长。所以，如果你在那里做点什么，从某种意义上说，它可能就像40年前的中国一样。”

In western Uttar Pradesh, the city of Moradabad — home to 1.3 million people — has long sustained itself by forging metal goods. It is positioned on the Ramganga River, whose banks are made of sand that has proved especially useful for the art of casting.

在北方邦西部，拥有130万人口的莫拉达巴德市长期以来的支柱产业是金属制品锻造。它坐落在拉姆根加河畔，河岸由沙子构成，这些沙子对锻造技术特别有用处。

That skill set has lately attracted the attention of companies like Walmart.

这种技能最近吸引了沃尔玛等公司的注意。

“Walmart’s sourcing efforts focus on ensuring we have a broad diversification of current and new suppliers, including small businesses and entrepreneurs from all over the world,” a company spokeswoman, Blair Cromwell, said in a statement. “This strategy creates redundancy in our supply chain, reducing reliance on any single market or suppliers.”

“沃尔玛采购工作的重点是确保我们在现有供应商和新供应商方面保持广泛的多样性，包括来自世界各地的小公司和企业家，”沃尔玛发言人布莱尔·克伦威尔在一份声明中说。“这一战略在我们的供应链中造成了冗余效果，减少了对任何单一市场或供应商的依赖。”

On a recent afternoon, inside a factory run by a family-owned business called Shree Krishna, hundreds of men wielded machinery to transform coils of steel and piles of lumber into products destined for kitchens from Barcelona to Boston — cutting boards, cocktail shakers, ladles.

最近的一个下午，在一家名为什利·克里希纳的家族企业工厂里，数百名工人挥舞着机器，将钢卷和成堆的木材转化为从巴塞罗那到波士顿的厨房所需的产品——砧板、鸡尾酒摇壶、长柄勺。

A half-dozen workers pulled off an industrial magic trick, dipping wreath holders made of stainless steel into a bubbling green bath of chemicals that changed their color to copper. Others pushed hunks of metal onto spinning balls of stone that smoothed out imperfections as sparks shot sideways. Downstairs, men fed boards into screaming saws, the air thick with sawdust.

六名工人表演了一种工业魔术，将不锈钢制成的圆环支架浸入冒着水泡的绿色化学浸泡池中，支架变成了铜色。另一些人把大块金属推到旋转的石头球上，火花从侧面四射，石头球磨平了金属的瑕疵。楼下，男人们把木板放进发出啸叫声的锯子里，空气中弥漫着锯末。

It was 106 degrees (41 degrees Celsius), and the windows were propped open, allowing a modest breeze to permeate as ceiling fans whirred. Air-conditioning was not on the menu.

当时的气温是41摄氏度，窗户开着，让微风吹进来。天花板上的风扇嗡嗡作响，没有购买空调的计划。

“We are used to it,” said Samish Jain, who oversees Shree Krishna’s marketing.

“我们习惯了，”负责什利·克里希纳市场营销的萨米什·贾因说。

Mr. Jain, 35, paused at a table where men applied swaths of cloth to wipe dust from wooden cake stands for Walmart Superstores in the United States. The American brand previously purchased small quantities of these items from his factory, he said.

35岁的贾因在一张工作台前面驻足，那里，男人们正在用布擦拭美国沃尔玛超市木制蛋糕架上的灰尘。他说，这家美国品牌以前曾从他的工厂少量采购过这些产品。

“This is a big order,” he added. “Two million dollars plus.”

“这是一笔大订单，”他补充说。“200万美元以上。”

Mr. Jain’s father and his two brothers began making stainless steel jugs and mugs for the domestic market. By the mid-1990s, they were exporting, sending mixing bowls and colanders to the United States.

贾因的父亲和他的两个兄弟一开始为国内市场制作不锈钢水壶和马克杯。到20世纪90年代中期，他们开始出口，向美国市场提供搅拌碗和滤盆。

These days, the four sons of the founders, Mr. Jain among them, play active roles in the company. Educated at a graduate business program in Florence, Italy, he favors fashionable eyewear and designer shirts. Where his father prefers to speak Hindi, Mr. Jain is fully comfortable in English and savvy in traveling the globe.

如今，创始人的四个儿子在公司中发挥着积极的作用，贾因也在其中。他曾在意大利佛罗伦萨的一个研究生商学院接受过教育，喜欢时髦的眼镜和名牌衬衫。他的父亲更喜欢说印地语，贾因则能自如地说英语，熟练地在全球各地旅行。

Shree Krishna has been making products for Walmart for more than two decades. But recent months have brought a surge of interest from the retailer, whose buyers recently visited the plant from company offices in Bangalore and Hong Kong. The Jain family envisions multiplying its business by 10 or even 20 times over the next five years.

什利·克里希纳为沃尔玛生产产品已有20多年了。但最近几个月，沃尔玛对该厂的兴趣大增，来自班加罗尔和香港办公室的买手最近参观了该厂。贾因家族希望在未来五年内将业务扩大10倍甚至20倍。

“Walmart doesn’t want to put all their eggs in the China basket,” Mr. Jain said. “They see India as the only country that can handle the scale of what they do in China.”

“沃尔玛不想把所有的鸡蛋都放在中国这个篮子里，”贾因说。“他们认为，印度是唯一一个能够达到他们在中国所达到的规模的国家。”

Part of the appeal for Walmart, he added, is that all the wood the factory needs is harvested in India, including mango and acacia. It buys 95 percent of its steel domestically, though it does import machinery from Chinese producers.

他还说，他们对沃尔玛的部分吸引力在于，工厂所需的所有木材都是在印度采伐的，包括芒果木和金合欢木。95%的钢铁是在国内购买的，尽管它也从中国生产商那里进口机械。

The company recently bought a textile plant 30 miles west of Moradabad. It plans to increase the number of sewing machines to 1,200, from 350, within two years, while making T-shirts and exercise clothing, exporting nearly two-thirds of its production.

该公司最近在莫拉达巴德以西约50公里处收购了一家纺织厂。该公司计划在两年内将缝纫机数量从350台增加到1200台，同时生产T恤和运动服，近三分之二的产品将用于出口。

The site includes an empty space large enough to park several jumbo jets, room to expand to make metal goods.

场地中包括一块空地，大到足以停放几架大型喷气式飞机，这是用于生产金属产品的扩建空间。

“Whatever we want to do, we can do here,” Mr. Jain said. “Once this is done, Walmart will have the capability to move production from China to India.”

“无论我们想做什么，都可以在这里完成，”贾因说。“一旦完成，沃尔玛将有能力把生产从中国转移到印度。”

The biggest impediment to that vision may be the unreliable state of infrastructure.

实现这一愿景的最大障碍可能是不可靠的基础设施状况。

“The power never fails,” boasted Mr. Jain’s father, Sandeep, as he sat in the air-conditioning of a factory conference room. “Not since Modi.”

“电力永远不会中断，”贾因的父亲桑迪普坐在有空调的工厂会议室里夸耀说。“自从莫迪上台以后就从来没断过。”

Seconds later, the air-conditioning groaned to a halt, and the lights went dark.

几秒钟后，空调嘎吱嘎吱地停了下来，灯光也熄灭了。

A Global Quest

全球探索

In recent months, Samish Jain has been traveling more than usual.

最近几个月，萨米什·贾因的出差次数比往常多出很多。

In April, he visited Walmart’s headquarters in Bentonville, Ark., hauling a duffel bag full of samples that he displayed to the company’s buyers.

今年4月，他参观了沃尔玛位于阿肯色州本顿维尔的总部。他拖着一个装满样品的旅行袋，向公司的买手做展示。

For three days, he wandered a convention center in downtown Chicago amid 10,000 attendees at the Inspired Home Show, a trade fair. He huddled with representatives from American, European and Australian kitchenware brands.

在芝加哥市中心的一个会议中心，有1万名与会者前来参加“灵感家居展”，他在里面逛了三天时间，与来自美国、欧洲和澳大利亚厨具品牌的代表会面。

Many worried that the relationship between the United States and China would yield further business-impeding acrimony — especially if Mr. Trump regained the White House in November’s election.

许多人担心，美中关系会产生更多阻碍商业发展的敌意——尤其是特朗普在11月的选举中重新入主白宫的话。

“If Trump gets in again, he’s going to finish off what he started,” said Dov Shiffrin, a representative for Yukon Glory, a barbecue accessories company that manufactures in China.

“如果特朗普再次上台，他会完成由他开始的事情，”在中国生产烧烤配件的育空荣耀公司的代表多夫·希夫林说。

“India is the wave of the future,” he said. “They’re going to be the next China.”

“印度是未来的潮流，”他说。“他们将成为下一个中国。”