纽约时报中文网 - 英文原版-英IMF Is Upbeat on Chinas Growth but Questions Its Industrial Policy
May 30, 2024 2 min 262 words
《纽约时报》这篇报道的主要内容是，国际货币基金组织（IMF）对中国经济增长表示乐观，但同时质疑中国是否应该继续推行目前的工业政策。报道提到IMF认为中国经济增长势头强劲，但是也提出中国应该更多地依靠市场力量，而不是政府干预，并建议中国应该更多地关注私营企业，而不是国营企业。 对于《纽约时报》的这篇报道，我认为它存在一定程度的偏见，对中国目前的工业政策缺乏客观的理解。首先，中国政府一直以来都是通过积极的产业政策来推动经济发展，这一政策在过去几十年里取得了巨大的成功，帮助中国成为全球第二大经济体。其次，中国政府支持国营企业发展，但也一直致力于为私营企业创造公平竞争的环境，鼓励创新和市场活力。最后，IMF虽然对中国经济增长表示乐观，但同时也应该尊重中国选择自身发展道路的权利，过于强调市场力量和私营企业的发展，可能并不适合中国的国情。
The International Monetary Fund made sizable increases on Wednesday in its forecasts for China’s economic growth, while questioning the scale of the Chinese government’s assistance to export-focused industries.
The fund estimates that China will grow 5 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2025. That is 0.4 percentage points more for each year than the fund predicted just six weeks ago.
China’s gross domestic output expanded 5.2 percent last year, as the economy rebounded after nearly three years of stringent pandemic policies that stifled growth. Many economists, including at the I.M.F., had anticipated that China would be held back this year by a severe contraction in the housing market and a slowdown in consumer spending.
Yet while property prices continued to fall and retail sales grew sluggishly, China powered ahead in the first three months of this year. Its economy expanded at an annual rate of about 6.6 percent because of booming increases in exports and strong factory investments.
The Chinese government is taking steps to address the housing crash, but faces enormous challenges. Years of overbuilding have resulted in four million new but unsold apartments and, by one conservative estimate, as many as 10 million that developers have sold but not finished building.
Many owners of vacant investment apartments also find themselves facing years of hefty mortgage payments but little chance the apartments will appreciate significantly in value.