纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英IMF上调对中国经济增长预期但对其产业政策提出质疑

The International Monetary Fund made sizable increases on Wednesday in its forecasts for China’s economic growth, while questioning the scale of the Chinese government’s assistance to export-focused industries.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周三大幅调高了对中国经济增长的预期，同时对中国政府对出口型行业资助的规模提出质疑。

The fund estimates that China will grow 5 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2025. That is 0.4 percentage points more for each year than the fund predicted just six weeks ago.

IMF预计中国今年的经济增长率将达到5%，2025年将达到4.5%。这比该组织六周前预测的两年增长率数字分别高出0.4个百分点。

China’s gross domestic output expanded 5.2 percent last year, as the economy rebounded after nearly three years of stringent pandemic policies that stifled growth. Many economists, including at the I.M.F., had anticipated that China would be held back this year by a severe contraction in the housing market and a slowdown in consumer spending.

去年，中国国内生产总值增长了5.2%，经济在经历了近三年的严格防疫政策后出现反弹，这些政策扼杀了经济。包括IMF在内，许多经济学家曾预计由于房地产市场严重萎缩和国内消费放缓，中国今年的经济增长将会放缓。

Yet while property prices continued to fall and retail sales grew sluggishly, China powered ahead in the first three months of this year. Its economy expanded at an annual rate of about 6.6 percent because of booming increases in exports and strong factory investments.

然而，尽管房地产价格持续下跌，零售额增长乏力，但由于出口和工厂投资双双强劲增长，中国经济在今年前三个月仍录得有力增长，年增长率约为6.6%。

The Chinese government is taking steps to address the housing crash, but faces enormous challenges. Years of overbuilding have resulted in four million new but unsold apartments and, by one conservative estimate, as many as 10 million that developers have sold but not finished building.

中国政府正在采取措施解决楼市危机，但面临着巨大的挑战。多年来的过度建设导致400万套新公寓未售出，而据保守估计，开发商已售出但尚未竣工的公寓多达1000万套。

Many owners of vacant investment apartments also find themselves facing years of hefty mortgage payments but little chance the apartments will appreciate significantly in value.

许多空置的投资型公寓的业主发现，他们有要还很多年的大笔贷款，但公寓大幅升值的可能性却很小。

A plan unveiled this month for local governments to buy large numbers of empty apartments and convert them to affordable housing has been met with skepticism by many analysts.

本月公布的一项计划要求地方政府购买大量空置公寓，并将其改造成经济适用房，该计划遭到了许多分析人士的质疑。

Beyond housing, China has made very heavy investments this year in its factories, which already dominate global markets for goods ranging from furniture to electric vehicles and solar panels.

除了住房，中国今年还对工厂进行了大量投资，这些工厂主导了从家具到电动汽车、太阳能电池板等各种商品的全球市场。

Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the I.M.F., said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday that the latest upward revision of its growth forecasts was “driven by strong first quarter G.D.P. growth and recent policy measures,” particularly moves to stabilize the housing market.

IMF第一副总裁吉塔·戈皮纳斯周三在北京的新闻发布会上表示，此次上调对中国的经济增长预测是“受到第一季度强劲的GDP增长和近期政策措施的驱动”，特别是稳定房地产市场的举措。

She called on China to do more to address its real estate problems and warned that the government’s industrial policies might hurt other countries.

她呼吁中国采取更多措施来解决楼市问题，并警告中国政府的产业措施可能会对其他国家造成伤害。

“China’s use of industrial policies to support priority sectors can potentially lead to a misallocation of domestic resources and also potentially affect trading partners,” Ms. Gopinath said. She suggested China scale back these policies.

“中国利用产业政策支持重点行业，可能导致国内资源配置不当，并且有可能影响到贸易伙伴。”戈皮纳斯说。她建议中国减少这些政策。

Janet L. Yellen, the United States Treasury secretary, has criticized China in recent months for its industrial strategy. She has warned against allowing China to greatly increase its exports to make up for economic troubles at home. She has begun rallying international support for tariffs or other restrictions on low-cost Chinese exports that may threaten industries and jobs in the West. 

在最近几个月，美国财长耶伦曾批评中国的产业战略。她警告，不要允许中国大幅增加出口来缓解国内的经济困境。她还开始争取国际社会一起对廉价的中国出口商品征收关税或者采取其他限制措施，因为它们有可能威胁到西方的相关产业和就业。

President Biden this month announced sharp increases in tariffs on some  Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and solar panels.

拜登总统本月宣布，将大幅提高一系列中国进口商品的关税，包括电动汽车和太阳能电池板。

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, said that China’s policies were helping the world by increasing the global supply of goods and alleviating international inflation pressures.

中国最高领导人习近平表示，中国丰富了全球商品供应，缓解了全球通胀压力

Ms. Yellen criticized the I.M.F. last month for not challenging China’s manufacturing push, which she described as creating overcapacity that is leading Chinese companies to ship their products overseas at very low prices.

上个月，耶伦批评IMF没有对中国推动制造业的做法提出质疑。她认为，这种做法造成了产能过剩，导致中国企业以极低的价格将产品销往海外。

Chinese officials reject the term overcapacity as an unfair characterization of their economy. An I.M.F. statement on Wednesday avoided the word, and so did Ms. Gopinath during her news conference.

中国官员拒绝接受“产能过剩”一词，认为这有失公允。IMF周三的声明中回避了这个词，戈皮纳斯在新闻发布会上也没有使用该词。

The I.M.F. recommended that China strengthen its social safety net, which analysts have said China must do to develop a stronger consumer economy and depend less on exports.

IMF建议中国加强社会保障网络。分析人士表示，中国必须这样做，才能发展更强劲的消费经济，减少对出口的依赖。

Mr. Xi has been wary of increases in social spending. “We still must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism,” he said in a speech three years ago.

习近平对社会支出的增加始终持谨慎态度。他在三年前的一次讲话中提到：“不能提过高的目标，搞过头的保障，坚决防止落入‘福利主义’养懒汉的陷阱。”

With China’s labor force gradually shrinking because of a decades-long “one child” policy, and with productivity gains slowing now that China has caught up with or passed the West in many technologies, the economy is still expected to grow more slowly in the coming years. The I.M.F. staff predicted on Wednesday that growth would slow to 3.3 percent by 2029.

由于几十年来采取“独生子女”政策，中国的劳动力规模逐渐萎缩，而且随着中国在许多技术方面赶上或超过西方，生产率的提高也在放缓，预计未来几年经济增长仍将放缓。IMF周三预测，到2029年，中国的增长率将降至3.3%。

For the I.M.F., trade squabbles between the West and China come at a particularly delicate time. The fund, which lends money at low interest rates to countries in fiscal distress, is supported financially by investments from member countries.

对IMF来说，西方和中国的贸易争端发生在一个特别微妙的时刻。IMF以低利率向陷入财政困境的国家提供贷款，其财政支持来自成员国的投资。

Established in the aftermath of World War II, the fund has long been dominated by Europe and the United States, which provide much of its money. But voting rights at the fund are supposed to be calculated partly on a country’s trade and currency reserves, as well as the size of its economy. China now has the world’s largest trade and currency reserves, and has sought a corresponding increase in its influence at the fund.

IMF创立于“二战”后，长期以来一直由提供了大量资金的欧洲和美国主导。但IMF的投票权应该在一定程度上取决于一国的贸易和外汇储备，以及经济规模。中国拥有世界上最大的贸易和外汇储备，正寻求在IMF获得相应的影响力。

China’s leadership in trade and currency reserves is part of the same export drive that already worries the West.

中国在贸易和外汇储备方面的领导地位也是令西方担忧的出口驱动力的一部分。

Ms. Gopinath said the fund’s first priority is to expand its base of capital for lending, which it is doing by obtaining larger investments from member countries.

IMF第一副总裁戈皮纳特表示，IMF的首要任务是扩大贷款资本基础，它正寻求获得成员国的更多投资来实现这一点。