纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国是如何在产业政策上遥遥领先于世界的

For more than half a century, concerns about oil shortages or a damaged climate have spurred governments to invest in alternative energy sources.

半个多世纪以来，对石油短缺或气候遭到破坏的担忧促使各国政府投资替代能源。

In the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter placed solar panels on the roof of the White House as a symbol of his commitment to developing energy from the sun. In the 1990s, Japan offered homeowners groundbreaking subsidies to install photovoltaic panels. And in the 2000s, Germany developed an innovative program that guaranteed consumers who adopted a solar energy system that they would sell their electricity at a profit.

卡特总统曾在20世纪70年代把太阳能电池板安装在白宫屋顶上，作为他致力于发展太阳能的象征。日本曾在20世纪90年代为房主安装光伏电池板提供开创性的补贴。德国在21世纪的头十年开启了一个创新项目，确保采用太阳能系统的消费者能出售他们不需要的电力，并从中获利。

But no country has come close to matching the scale and tenacity of China’s support. The proof is in the production: In 2022, Beijing accounted for 85 percent of all clean-energy manufacturing investment in the world, according to the International Energy Agency.

但没有一个国家达到了中国支持替代能源的规模和力度。这一点从生产数据可见一斑：据国际能源机构，2022年的全球清洁能源制造业投资中，中国占85%。

Now the United States, Europe and other wealthy nations are trying frantically to catch up. Hoping to correct past missteps on industrial policy and learn from China’s successes, they are spending huge amounts on subsidizing homegrown companies while also seeking to block competing Chinese products. They have made modest inroads: Last year, the energy agency said, China’s share of new clean-energy factory investment fell to 75 percent.

现在，美国、欧洲和其他富裕国家正在试图拼命赶上。这些国家希望纠正以前在产业政策上的失误，借鉴中国的成功经验，它们正在为本土企业提供巨额补贴，同时试图阻止有竞争力的中国产品进入本国市场。它们已取得了些许进展：国际能源机构的数据显示，在去年全球新建清洁能源工厂的投资中，中国占的份额下降到了75%。

The problem for the West, though, is that China’s industrial dominance is underpinned by decades of experience using the power of a one-party state to pull all the levers of government and banking, while encouraging frenetic competition among private companies.

但对西方来说问题是，支撑中国工业主导地位的是其几十年来的做法，它一直在使用一党制国家的权力来调动政府和银行的全部资源，同时鼓励私营企业之间的疯狂竞争。

China’s unrivaled production of solar panels and electric vehicles is built on an earlier cultivation of the chemical, steel, battery and electronics industries, as well as large investments in rail lines, ports and highways.

中国无可匹敌的太阳能电池板和电动汽车的生产建立在这个国家早期对化工、钢铁、电池和电子等行业的扶持，以及对铁路、港口和高速公路的大量投资基础上。

From 2017 to 2019, it spent an extraordinary 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product on industrial support, more than twice the percentage of any other country, according to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

据一份来自战略与国际研究中心的分析，从2017年到2019年，中国用于支持工业的资金占国内生产总值的1.7%，是其他国家的两倍多。

That spending included low-cost loans from state-controlled banks and cheap land from provincial governments, with little expectation that the companies they were aiding would turn immediate profits.

这些支持包括国有银行提供的低息贷款和省级政府提供的廉价土地，几乎不指望得到支持的公司会马上盈利。

And it was accompanied by what the United States and other countries have charged was China’s willingness to skirt international trade agreements, engage in intellectual property theft and use forced labor.

与这些支持同时发生的是，中国被美国和其他国家指责为愿意绕开国际贸易协定、盗窃知识产权、使用强迫劳动。

It all combined to help put China in the position today to flood rival countries with low-cost electric cars, solar cells and lithium batteries, as consumers across the wealthy world are increasingly turning to green tech.

所有这些因素结合起来帮助中国有了今天的地位，让它能将低成本的电动汽车、太阳能电池板和锂电池大量抛售到竞争对手国家，同时，生活在这些富裕国家的消费者们正在越来越多地转向绿色技术。

China now controls over 80 percent of worldwide production of every step of solar panel manufacturing, for example.

例如，中国现在控制着全球太阳能电池板制造各个环节80%以上的生产。

“There’s enormous economies of scale by going big as China did,” Gregory Nemet, a professor of public policy at the University of Wisconsin who has studied the global solar industry. When the investments resulted in overcapacity, suppressing the profitability of China’s companies, Beijing was willing to ride out the losses.

“像中国这样做大能带来巨大的规模经济，”威斯康星大学公共政策学院的教授格雷戈里·内梅特说，他研究了全球太阳能行业。当该行业的投资导致产能过剩，抑制了中国企业的盈利能力时，中国政府愿意承受损失。

President Biden and European leaders are determined to develop their countries’ manufacturing capacity in advanced technologies like semiconductors, electric vehicles and batteries, in part by adopting some of China’s tactics to nurture industries.

拜登总统和欧洲国家的领导人已下定决心发展本国在半导体、电动汽车和电池等先进技术领域的制造能力，部分通过采用中国的一些扶植产业的做法。

China’s rise to dominate key global manufacturing sectors showed the potential and power of national industrial policy, said Jennifer Harris, a former Biden aide who now leads the Economy and Society Initiative at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

中国在主导全球关键制造行业上的成功表明了国家产业政策的可能性和力量，曾任拜登助手的詹妮弗·哈里斯说，她现在是威廉与弗洛拉·休利特基金会经济与社会倡议项目负责人。

“Was it wasteful? Absolutely,” she said. “Was it successful? Absolutely.”

“这会造成浪费吗？绝对会，”她说。“它成功了吗？绝对的。”

Mr. Biden and the heads of European governments are more willing to call out Beijing for what they say are illegal practices like purposefully subsidizing excess production and then dumping underpriced goods on other countries.

拜登和欧洲各国政府的首脑们更愿意批评中国政府的非法行为，如有目的地补贴过剩生产，然后向其他国家倾销低价商品。

Beijing denies that it has violated trade rules, contending that its enormous industrial capacity is a sign of success. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, said this month that China had increased the global supply of goods and alleviated international inflation pressures, while helping the world fight climate change.

中国否认自己违反了贸易规则，称本国巨大的工业产能是成功的标志。中国最高领导人习近平本月表示，中国丰富了全球商品供应，缓解了全球通胀压力，同时为世界应对气候变化作出了贡献。

Mr. Biden said this month that he would impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on imports of Chinese green technologies including electric vehicles. The aim is to deny China any more of an opening in America.

拜登本月表示，他将对包括电动汽车在内的中国绿色技术征收最高100%的进口关税，目的是不让中国进一步打入美国市场。

European officials are expected to impose their own tariffs soon — despite warnings from some economists and environmentalists that the measures will slow progress on meeting clean energy goals. Europe has become more worried about security issues as China has tilted its geopolitical stance toward Russia and Iran.

预计欧洲官员们不久也将提高对华关税，尽管一些经济学家和环保人士警告，这些措施将减慢实现清洁能源目标的进程。由于中国的地缘政治立场向俄罗斯和伊朗倾斜，欧洲已对安全问题变得更加担忧。

The West’s embrace of industrial policy is a departure from the ideology of open markets and minimal government intervention that the United States and its allies previously championed.

西方接受产业政策的做法与美国及其盟国此前倡导的开放市场和最小政府干预的意识形态背道而驰。

Policies prompted by the 1970s energy crises were largely reversed when Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980. Even the solar panels installed at the White House during the Carter administration were removed.

美国在20世纪70年代的能源危机后推出的政策在罗纳德·里根1980年当选总统后已大多被废除。就连卡特执政期间在白宫安装的太阳能电池板也已被拆除。

Except for certain security-related industries, the United States adopted the view that an unfettered market always knows best.

除了某些与国家安全相关的行业外，美国曾采取的观点是，不受约束的市场总是最了解情况的。

“If the end result was that you had to rely on other countries for key parts, that was OK,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“如果最终结果是不得不依赖其他国家来获得关键零部件，也没关系，”美国外交关系委员会的高级研究员布拉德·塞策说。

Joseph Stiglitz, an economist at Columbia University, said the United States had long lacked a broader industrial policy and a coordinated strategy.

哥伦比亚大学的经济学家约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨认为，美国长期以来缺乏更广泛的产业政策和协调一致的战略。

“Even the Democrats were afraid to take a more aggressive government role,” he said, “and I think that was obviously a big mistake with long-run consequences.”

“就连民主党人也不敢让政府起更积极的作用，”他说，“我认为这显然是一个有长远后果的重大错误。”

From the perspective of some Chinese economists, complaints about unfairness from the United States and Europe are a sign of their own governments’ failures.

从一些中国经济学家的角度看来，美国和欧洲对中国不公平竞争的抱怨是本国政府失败的表现。

“The West’s decision to pursue neoliberal economic policies was a strategic mistake, which led to the de-industrialisation of their economies and provided China with an opportunity,” Zheng Yongnian, a professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong, said.

“西方奉行新自由主义经济政策的决定是一个战略错误，导致了它们经济的去工业化，为中国提供了机会，”香港中文大学教授郑永年说。

Whatever mistakes were made, political leaders in the United States say they are determined not to repeat them.

不管犯了什么错误，美国的政治领导人们说，他们已下决心不重蹈覆辙。

Last year, the United States and European Union made “significant inroads” in clean energy technology, according to the International Energy Agency.

据国际能源机构的说法，去年，美国和欧盟在清洁能源技术领域取得了“重大进展”。

And the Biden administration’s multibillion-dollar program is one of the most extensive uses of industrial policy in American history.

拜登政府数十亿美元的计划是美国历史上范围最广地使用产业政策的例子之一。

Mr. Biden’s tariffs are a targeted escalation of an American trade offensive against China that began under former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods from China valued at more than $350 billion a year, drawing retaliatory tariffs from Beijing. Mr. Biden has kept those tariffs, has added or increased them for clean energy and has raised new barriers to trade with Beijing, including denying China access to advanced semiconductors from the United States.

拜登提高关税是美国对中国的针对性贸易攻势的升级，征收关税的做法始于前总统特朗普。特朗普对美国每年从中国进口的价值逾3500亿美元的商品征收关税，引发中国政府对美国商品征收报复性关税。拜登保留了以前的关税，并加征或提高了清洁能源产品的关税，还为对华贸易设置了新壁垒，包括不让中国获得来自美国的先进半导体。

Mr. Biden’s trade agenda is “very, very aggressive,” said David Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who has extensively documented the effects of trade with China on the American economy, including factory job losses.

拜登的贸易议程“非常、非常富于攻击性”，麻省理工学院经济学家戴维·奥托尔说，他深入研究了对华贸易对美国经济的影响，包括工厂就业岗位的流失。

In his view, there are critical distinctions between Mr. Biden’s trade strategy and Beijing’s as both nations seek to lead the clean-energy race.

在他看来，拜登的贸易战略与中国的有关键区别，虽然两国都在寻求清洁能源竞赛的领军地位。

China was more focused on sending low-cost exports to global markets, Mr. Autor said, and preventing foreign firms from dominating China’s domestic markets.

奥托尔说，中国更注重将低成本出口送往全球市场，同时防止外国公司主导中国的国内市场。

Mr. Biden, he said, is more focused on keeping out imports from China and denying China access to some key American technologies, like advanced semiconductors.

他说，拜登更注重阻止中国出口产品进入美国，同时阻止中国获得某些关键的美国技术，如先进半导体。

At a meeting last week in Italy of the Group of 7 finance ministers, leaders from both sides of the Atlantic warned that the United States and Europe must coordinate their protectionism and their subsidies if they hope to catch Beijing in the race to dominate key industries.

在上周在意大利举行的七国集团财长会议上，来自大西洋两岸的领导人警告，如果美国和欧洲国家希望在主导关键行业的竞争中赶上中国，就必须协调它们的保护主义和补贴政策。

“Overcapacity threatens the viability of firms around the world, including in emerging markets,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Thursday.

“产能过剩威胁着世界各地企业的生存能力，包括新兴市场的企业，”美国财长耶伦上周四说。

“It’s critical,” she added, “that we and the growing numbers of countries who have identified this as a concern present a clear and united front.”

“至关重要的是，”她补充道，“我们要和越来越多已经认识到这个问题的国家建立一个明确的统一战线。”