The Washington Post-Putin arrives in China amid global consternation over Ukraine war

2024-05-15T03:55:43.245Z

Russian President Vladimir Putin was given a red-carpet welcome when he arrived in Beijing early Thursday to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with the pair expected to make a show of their close political and economic ties as they present themselves as the leaders of a world order that sits in contrast — and in opposition — to the one led by the United States.

China remains one of Russia’s only remaining trading partners and diplomatic allies following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and has become a critical economic lifeline as Russia copes with mounting Western sanctions. Putin arrived with a large delegation that includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, several deputy prime ministers and leaders of state-owned enterprises.

During his two-day visit, he and Xi are expected to emphasize their personal friendship and their shared objective of reshaping global power and ending the dominance of the United States in world affairs. Putin is also expected to meet Chinese premier Li Qiang, who is theoretically responsible for the country’s economy.

Xi will fete the Russian leader on Thursday night with a gala marking 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

On Friday, Putin is scheduled to attend the opening of the China-Russia trade fair in Harbin, a northern city close to the border with Russia, highlighting the countries’ increasingly close economic ties.

The trip underscores both leaders’ norm-busting tenures and autocratic tendencies: Xi visited Moscow in March last year, just after securing a third term as leader, while Putin’s arrival in Beijing marks his first overseas trip to since securing a fifth term as president earlier this month.

“It is the unprecedented high level of partnership between the two countries that made me decide to choose China as the first country I will visit after officially taking office as president of the Russian Federation,” Putin told Chinese state media outlet Xinhua on Wednesday.

The Kremlin’s media service said the two leaders “will have a substantive exchange of views on the most pressing global and regional affairs.” The negotiations will end with the signing of a joint statement and a number of bilateral documents, the media service said.

China’s ongoing diplomatic and material support for Russia and its war against Ukraine — even as Beijing portrays itself as a potential mediator — troubles democracies including the United States in western Europe. In France last week, Xi declined to use his influence to pressure Moscow to end its ongoing war against Ukraine.

Xi is particularly interested in Russia winning in Ukraine because of what it could mean for his oft-stated ambitions to take control of Taiwan, the island democracy that has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party but which Beijing considers a breakaway province. The CCP’s rival Kuomintang set up in Taiwan after losing the civil war in 1949.

Xi has been closely watching to see what price Putin has been paying for using military force in Ukraine — and the extent of western punishment for that force. Taiwan’s leaders — and other allies in the region, like Japan — have repeatedly warned that Ukraine today could be Taiwan tomorrow.

Analysts say Putin and Xi are likely to double down on their transactional relationship during this week’s meetings.

“Putin will push for more Chinese assistance in prosecuting his invasion of Ukraine. Xi will prod for further Russian support for China’s energy, food, and national security priorities,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, who is now at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“They will wrap their respective efforts within an aura of bonhomie and linked arms against Western pressure on them both,” Hass said.

The two leaders declared their countries had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Apparently eager to show their support for each other, they have met regularly since, with Xi’s trip to Moscow last year and the Russian leader traveling to China only six months later to commemorate a decade of Xi’s signature Belt and Road project.

Their mutual economic interests have grown since the invasion. China’s trade with Russia hit a record $240 billion in 2023 — up 63 percent from 2021, before the invasion, and reaching a goal they planned to meet by 2024. During that time, exports of Chinese electronics needed to produce precision-guided weapons systems saw a significant spike, Chinese customs data shows.

But trade flows have increased in both directions. Russia last year became China’s biggest oil supplier as Beijing took advantage of its discounted prices. Western sanctions have isolated Russia, which has relatively few big customers left, and Moscow has turned to China and India as its primary gas and oil customers.

Thursday’s meetings will give the two leaders a chance to assess the state of their cooperation, and for Xi to better understand Putin’s thinking on the war, said Wan Qingsong, an associate professor at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai.

“It is time to compare notes with China now that Putin believes Russia is gaining an upper hand against Ukraine and has a bigger say in whether and when to end the war,” Wan said. “China may have a different assessment but needs to listen to what Russia has to say.”

The war has become the organizing principle for Russia’s foreign policy, said Alexander Gabuev, a Russia and China expert with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Every relationship is assessed through three elements, he said: What the country can bring to advance Putin’s war effort in Ukraine; what the country can do for Russia’s revenue streams to counter the impact of Western sanctions; and whether the country can help Moscow push back against the West.

China checks all three boxes, he said. “It shows that Russia doesn’t have any more important foreign partner than China.”

The question is what tangible actions will result from their meetings beyond lofty rhetoric about their partnership. But the most consequential outcomes of their meeting are not likely to be shared publicly, Gabuev said.

Those issues include ways the Russians can circumvent Western sanctions and “how much China will be willing to give at what pace and what visibility, given U.S. concerns and threat of sanctions” on China, he said. They would also discuss Russians potentially sharing designs for key technologies and weapons with the Chinese, and the overall strategic direction of their bilateral relations, he said.

“There will be the underwater part of the iceberg,” Gabuev said.

Others played down the significance of the visit. Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar of international relations, said the economic ties between China and Russia are due to a strategic but short-term dependence on each other.

“It’s more of symbolism that soothes Russia’s isolation. … China’s purchase of Russia’s resources is an act of sympathy,” said Shen. “If the United States stops exerting pressure on Russia, Russia won’t need to seek much warmth from China.”

He noted the absence of Chinese representation at Putin’s inauguration. China seeks balance in protecting its interests and is unlikely to adopt a stance aligned with Russia on controversial topics such as the war in Ukraine, Shen said: “One cannot say through a joint statement that Russia has not invaded. Otherwise, how can we partner with other countries in the world?”

Lee reported from Taipei, Taiwan. Pei-lin Wu in Taipei and Lyric Li in Seoul contributed to this report.