The Washington Post-Chinas Xi visits France in first post-pandemic trip to Europe

2024-04-29T13:01:25.258Z

PARIS — On his first visit to Europe since the pandemic, Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces a continent of skeptics — although generally not as skeptical as in the United States — and he is looking for an opening.

The overall sentiment in Europe is less enthusiastic about engagement than it was five years ago, but European countries are still divided on whether China should continue to be considered a “partner for cooperation” or, as U.S. officials argue, more of a potentially dangerous rival.

As he tries to draw Europe closer into China’s orbit, Xi is visiting France, before moving onto the friendlier countries of Hungary and Serbia.

In a statement released at the outset of the trip, Xi talked about the benefits of open economies, the importance of territorial integrity and the pivotal role of independent-minded countries. Macron recently said Europe should not be a “vassal” to the United States, suggesting he might be open to such discussions. But it remains to be seen whether Xi’s visit will calm tensions over trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Macron shook hands with Xi as the Chinese leader arrived at the Élysée Palace on Monday, with French gendarmerie marching outside against a backdrop of Chinese and French flags. “The international situation necessitates European-Chinese dialogue more than ever,” he said, before launching a meeting with Xi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He said they would discuss the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as trade relations.

Xi will have a day of potentially tense talks with Macron and von der Leyen, before attending a state banquet at the Élysée Palace and then visiting Macron’s childhood vacation spot in the Pyrenees mountains.

Macron wants to persuade Xi to take a tougher line on Russia — a tall order, considering that China has had two years to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine but has instead offered support, both diplomatic and material.

In Sunday’s statement, Xi seemed to suggest he had done as much as he could do. He said he had already “made many appeals,” including about “respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries,” and that “a nuclear war must not be fought.”

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, a parade of European officials, including Macron, has trekked to Beijing to try to persuade Xi to change course — to no avail. In Paris, Macron will give it another go, but he is unlikely to get a different result.

Another point of contention: European officials have criticized China for flooding the electric vehicles market and are threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese EV imports.

Brussels last year launched an investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, and the European Commission recently launched probes into China’s subsidies of wind turbines and public procurement of medical devices.

Then there was Macron’s meeting last week with a representative of Tibet’s government in exile. Beijing considers the group’s leaders, including the Dalai Lama, to be separatists.

There may be “little concrete result” in Xi’s visit in France, because while “the optics are going to be extremely positive,” the French have some tough messages to deliver, said Abigaël Vasselier, head of foreign relations at the Berlin-based MERICS think tank.

The optics will get more positive as Xi moves east. A railway between Hungary’s and Serbia’s capitals, Budapest to Belgrade, is under construction as a signature Chinese project, part of Xi’s “Belt and Road” investment and trade initiative.

In those stops, too, Xi will probably try to sell China as a preferred partner over the United States. He is also visiting Serbia the same week as the 25th anniversary of the 1999 American bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, which remains a lightning rod for anti-NATO and anti-American sentiment in Beijing.

Europe’s new line on China

Even before Russian tanks rolled on Kyiv, Europe was rethinking its relationship with China. Outraged over crackdowns in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and concerned about economic coercion, Europe knew it needed to change its approach — and was nudged along by the United States.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine seemed to cement a shift toward a more hawkish view, as the European Union and most of its member states reconsidered the wisdom of engaging with authoritarian regimes. In the past two years, the European Commission has led a push to “de-risk” the union’s relationship with Beijing, focusing on trade and supply chains.

“The mood has changed at many levels,” said Philippe Le Corre, a French analyst with the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Despite this new direction, there are differences among member states — as will be evident on Xi’s trip. Hungary remains friendly to Russia and China, for instance. And while others increasingly share the U.S. view of China as a rival and competitor, many are somewhere in the middle.

Beijing is eager to exploit these differences, analysts say.

Europe’s approach to Chinese-owned TikTok compared to that of the United States is also telling. While Washington sounds the alarm about security concerns, the European response has been largely muted.

Xi’s visit to Hungary and Serbia serves as a warning signal to the E.U. about any actions it might take against China’s interests.

“While China is willing to make positive efforts toward cooperation with Europe, Hungary, as a form of diplomatic defense, could help oppose any E.U. measures unfavorable to China,” said Song Luzheng, a researcher at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Trade tensions permeate

Trade tensions will be high on Xi’s agenda, with Europeans leaders sharing American concerns about possible unfair subsidies. The Chinese leader will be trying to unshackle Europe from the United States on issues including Huawei technology and subsidies for green tech.

European leaders, accusing Beijing of distorting the market, want to protect E.U. carmakers against cheaper Chinese EV imports they say are benefiting from subsidies.

The EV investigation, and China’s probe into French brandy imports, will be “a test case for Europe in terms of restrictive measures and the capacity to deal with the tit-for-tat measures China is likely to put in place,” Vasselier said.

Beijing’s major concern with Europe is its “inability to be completely independent from the U.S.,” said Song.

The U.S. presidential race will come up during Xi’s visit, and Europe’s position might get more complicated by the end of the year if Donald Trump returns to the White House, Song said, adding that this could create an opportunity for closer cooperation between China and Europe.

Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Union Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, added that only by cooperating with China can Europe address declining competitiveness and living standards. “Europe considers China a systemic rival, but it cannot do without China’s market.”

The question of Taiwan

Macron’s trip to China last year raised eyebrows in Washington and Brussels because of off-key remarks on Taiwan, the self-governing island that has never been controlled by the Chinese Communist Party but which Beijing considers part of its territory.

On his way to meet Xi in southern China, Macron was asked by journalists about policy on Taiwan. He said that the worst thing to do would be “to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”

Europe, he continued, risks getting “caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building strategic autonomy.”

Though few doubt that Europe and the United States see Taiwan differently, most officials and analysts were puzzled and angry that Macron would say so directly and publicly.

Xi would be hoping Macron will — again — support Beijing’s position on Taiwan.

Chiang reported from Taipei, Taiwan.