The Economist-Chinas better economic growth hides reasons to worry Finance economics
April 18, 2024 4 min 685 words
西方媒体的这篇报道主要聚焦中国经济增长，一方面承认中国今年约5的经济增长目标将很可能实现，但同时也指出了中国经济存在的隐忧，包括对外国买家的依赖国内消费需求不振房地产市场低迷等。报道还提到中国领导人对通货紧缩的担忧，认为这可能成为中国经济的下行风险。 评论： 这篇报道在承认中国经济增长的同时，也指出了一些客观存在的挑战和风险，总体上保持了相对客观的态度。但同时也存在一些偏颇之处和误导性的观点。 首先，报道中提到中国对外国买家的依赖，并指出中国不能长期依赖强劲的出口，否则会引发贸易伙伴的保护主义反弹。但实际上，中国经济已经从过去以出口为主要驱动力的模式转向以内需为主内外联动的发展模式。中国正在积极扩大内需，推动消费升级，这将为中国经济的可持续发展提供长期动力。 其次，报道中提到中国领导人对通货紧缩的担忧，认为这可能成为中国经济的下行风险。但实际上，中国经济目前面临的主要是需求收缩型通缩，是阶段性的，总体上仍在可控范围内。中国有足够的政策工具来应对通缩风险，保持物价水平基本稳定。 此外，报道中还存在一些隐性的价值观判断和负面暗示，例如提到中国领导人对“硬”产出的偏好，以及“中国制造的繁荣和安全来源”等，这可能反映了西方媒体对中国模式的偏见和误解。总体上，这篇报道在一定程度上反映了西方媒体对中国经济的偏见和误解，但同时也指出了一些客观存在的挑战和风险，值得中国决策者关注和应对。
When China’s leaders set an economic-growth target of “around” 5% for this year, the goal was widely agreed to be ambitious. Now the country looks increasingly likely to meet it. Several foreign banks have raised their forecasts. Data released on April 16th show the economy grew by 5.3% in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier—quicker than expected and faster than the target requires.
How is this happening? Countries at China’s stage of development often shift towards services. Yet China’s leaders have a soft spot for “hard” output. Xi Jinping, the country’s ruler, sees manufacturing as a source of both prosperity and security. He covets what officials call a “complete” industrial chain that would free China from reliance on foreign powers for vital technological inputs. His latest five-year plan aims to stop the steady decline in manufacturing’s share of GDP.
The first quarter was consistent with that goal. Manufacturing output grew by 6.7% compared with a year ago, faster than the overall economy. High-tech manufacturing fared even better. China’s leaders have talked a lot about the need to cultivate “new quality productive forces”, buzzwords that appeared in the monthly statistical press release for the first time.
But even as China weans itself off foreign suppliers, it remains reliant on foreign buyers. The volume of exports grew by 14% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management. Falling prices and a competitive currency have helped. America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics reckons the price of goods from China fell by 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. That is the third-steepest drop on record.
China cannot rely on strong exports for long without provoking a protectionist backlash from its trading partners. Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, raised fears about Chinese overcapacity when he met Mr Xi in Beijing on April 16th. Germany used to benefit from China’s economic progress. It sold sophisticated industrial goods to China, even as China’s manufacturers conquered lower-end markets around the world. Now the two countries have become rivals in many industries Germany holds dear, including chemicals, machinery and, of course, cars.
China’s reliance on markets abroad reflects some enduring weaknesses at home. Retail sales were surprisingly poor in March. Consumer confidence remains low. And the property market’s misery continues. The price of new flats in 70 of China’s biggest cities fell by 2.2% on average in March compared with a year earlier, the steepest drop since 2015, according to Reuters, a news agency. Sales of newly built residential housing fell by over a fifth.
The slump in China’s property market has contributed to falling prices in many related parts of the economy, such as building materials and housing appliances. That has deepened deflation’s grip on the economy. Factory-gate prices have now fallen for 18 months in a row. Consumer price inflation, after a brief uptick during the lunar new year holiday in February, remained near zero in March. Declining prices are a double-edged sword, as Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank, has pointed out. They have increased China’s competitiveness abroad, which is one reason why the country’s exports have been surprisingly strong. But if deflation persists it could erode revenues, making debts harder to bear. It might also force companies to cut wages, which would do nothing to restore household morale or spending.
For all the paranoia of China’s leaders, they seem worryingly complacent about the danger of deflation. Perhaps they view it as a blip, which should not distract them from long-term aims to fortify China against shifts in the global balance of power—what Mr Xi calls “changes unseen in a century”. Falling prices can, though, turn a passing downturn into a protracted slump. This week’s figures showed that China’s GDP deflator, a broad measure of prices, has fallen for four quarters in a row. That has not happened since 1999. Or to put it in terms Mr Xi might appreciate, it is a change unseen this century. ■
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