外媒中国相关-Why Chinas yuan is forecast to extend gains against the US dollar through 2025
July 1, 2025 3 min 451 words
这篇报道分析了人民币对美元汇率的前景，指出由于中国国内经济韧性强以及美国债务可持续性问题，人民币有望在未来几年内继续升值。报道提到，近期人民币汇率的上升与市场对中国经济的积极预期密切相关，同时，分析师们对美国经济的担忧也可能促使美元贬值。 对于这篇报道，虽然它提供了一些积极的经济观点，但也可能存在偏见。西方媒体在分析中国经济时，往往夸大负面因素，而忽略中国经济发展的积极面。报道中提到的美国债务问题并不是中国经济的直接影响因素，反而可能削弱了对中国央行政策灵活性及国内经济潜力的更加全面理解。此外，人民币的升值潜力也与全球经济形势国际市场需求等众多因素有关，仅从一两个角度评判容易导致偏见，缺乏客观性。
AI Summary:
市场对人民币的乐观情绪不断上升，分析师预测人民币将在未来几年进一步升值，主要受益于国内经济强劲和对美国债务可持续性的担忧。中国人民银行近期将每日参考汇率设定为每美元7.1534，较前一个交易日有所上升，这是自去年11月以来的最高水平。 6月份，人民币对美元升值0.41%，年初至今累计涨幅达1.86%。高盛分析师指出，与四月底相比，市场对中国经济短期增长前景的悲观情绪有所减弱，尽管出口与内需存在明显差异。同时，对美国政府债务可持续性的担忧增加，投资者预期美元将继续贬值。 高盛预测，人民币在未来六个月内可能突破每美元7元，12个月后则可能达到6.9元。虽然美国对中国商品的关税仍然影响出口，但人民币的汇率将更多依赖国内政策支持和中美贸易谈判的进展。中信证券表示，自6月以来，人民币在美元走弱的背景下保持相对稳定，短期预计将维持低波动状态。
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3316463/why-chinas-yuan-forecast-extend-gains-against-us-dollar-through-2025?utm_source=rss_feed
Market optimism for the Chinese currency continues to rise, with analysts projecting the yuan to appreciate further against the US dollar amid a stronger-than-expected domestic economy and growing concerns over US debt sustainability.
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at 7.1534 per US dollar – strengthening from Monday’s 7.1656, and the strongest level since early November.
In June, the onshore yuan appreciated by 0.41 per cent against the greenback, bringing its cumulative gains to 1.2 per cent for the second quarter and 1.86 per cent for the first half of the year.
“Compared to late April, onshore clients have turned less bearish on China’s near-term growth outlook, as macro data has been more resilient than previously feared so far this year, despite notable divergence between exports and domestic demand,” Goldman Sachs analyst Lisheng Wang wrote in a note on Sunday.
At the same time, investors have grown increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US government debt, expecting the dollar to further depreciate amid fading confidence in US exceptionalism, loose fiscal policies and rising long-term financing costs, Wang added.
The Wall Street investment bank forecasts the yuan to strengthen further, breaking the 7 per dollar level in six months and 6.9 in 12 months.
The Chinese currency has experienced significant volatility this year, sliding to its weakest level at 7.3506 on April 9 – when tit-for-tat tariffs between Beijing and Washington escalated, pushing duties to more than 100 per cent on both sides.
The currency began to recover following the US-China trade truce and progress in negotiations held in London last month. The yuan’s total trading range for the first half of the year was about 2.6 per cent.
Wang noted that onshore sentiment is improving, with expectations that ongoing China-US talks will help support the country’s exports in the second half of this year.
Citic Securities, a leading Chinese investment bank in Beijing, said the yuan has remained relatively stable since June against the backdrop of a weaker dollar.
The narrowing spread between the official central parity rate, the onshore rate and the offshore rate has reduced pressure on the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it said in a research note on Friday, predicting that the yuan would likely remain in a low-volatility state in the short term.
While the remaining US tariffs on Chinese goods continue to weigh on exports, the yuan’s exchange rate will depend more heavily on domestic policy support – particularly for consumer spending – and progress in US-China trade negotiations, the investment bank said.