• Chinese air force looks to ‘kill chain’ that allows older jets to shoot down newer models
• American Mathematical Society fellow Li Hanfeng joins China’s Chongqing University
• China’s Baidu partners with Lyft to launch robotaxis in UK and Germany as soon as 2026
• Beijing’s E-Town offers subsidies to robot buyers as China embraces humanoids
• Taiwan and mainland China coastguards engage in close Dongsha Island encounter
• China eyes bigger global role for yuan as US dollar stability questioned
• Slovak PM Robert Fico to attend China’s WWII commemorations amid EU tensions
• Seaside meeting of experts a clue to the summer migration of China’s political elite
• China trio diagnosed with bacterial infection after eating ‘nutritious’ cooked sheep placenta
• China pledges support for peaceful development in Horn of Africa
• Innovent, BeOne are poised for profits in 2025, in milestone for Chinese biotech start-ups
• Is Saudi Arabia the next Dubai for Hong Kong and mainland Chinese property investors?
• Chinese scientists draw on Ukraine war lessons and propose an upgrade for PLA drones
• China twin brothers both score 666 points in crucial exam, astonish many with coincidence
• Jeffrey Sachs says US sabre-rattling at China can become self-fulfilling prophecy of war

Chinese air force looks to ‘kill chain’ that allows older jets to shoot down newer models

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3320718/chinese-air-force-looks-kill-chain-allows-older-jets-shoot-down-newer-models?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s air force has said it has developed techniques that allow older warplanes to shoot down more advanced stealth fighters by using advanced guided missiles.

On Sunday, state broadcaster CCTV said that during an exercise, a 10-year-old J-10C fighter got the better of an unidentified stealth fighter with the help of airborne warning and control system (Awacs) planes.

Pakistan used similar tactics and technology during the recent conflict with India, when its J-10Cs downed at least one French-made Rafale warplane.

Footage from the Chinese exercise was broadcast on Sunday in the third episode of Forging Ahead, a five-part series marking the 98th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The documentary said that success against stealth aircraft relied on the combined power of multiple systems, including electronic warfare platforms, rather than individual fighters, and may suggest ways for the PLA to counter the most advanced American warplanes.

The programme said a KJ-500A Awacs plane had identified the target plane’s approximate position and distance, then set up an attack by 4.5 generation J-10C fighters, one of which fired a medium-to-long-range active radar-guided missile at the target.

When the stealth fighter moved out of detection range, the pilot of the lead J-10C plane asked for additional support.

An unnamed Awacs plane – possibly another KJ-500A or a J-16D – then helped the missile to “open its eyes” and relocate the target.

It then entered its terminal active radar homing phase when its active electronically scanned array radar seeker was activated, allowing it to track down the target.

Ground controllers subsequently confirmed that the stealth aircraft had been “shot down”.

“This is our first successful combat result against a more advanced generation fighter,” Major Xiao Nan, a J-10C pilot, told CCTV.

“Without networked support, there was virtually no chance of shooting down stealth aircraft. Through this exercise, I realised that with systematic support, the J-10C is still very much in its prime.”

The India-Pakistan conflict offered a practical demonstration of the technique outlined in the CCTV documentary. Unnamed Pakistani officials told Reuters that the key was integrating its J-10C fighters into a “kill chain” that used both air and ground surveillance systems.

Central to this was Pakistan’s domestically developed Data Link 17, which was connected to Chinese-built ZDK-03 Awacs platforms.

This set-up allowed the J-10Cs to access radar feeds from a Swedish-made surveillance aircraft positioned far from the combat zone, allowing them to operate with their own radars turned off and remain undetected, according to the report.

It said the Indian Air Force had made a critical mistake by underestimating the range of the Chinese-made PL-15 missile fired by the Pakistani warplane, which reportedly travelled around 200km (120 miles), in one of the longest-range air-to-air strikes recorded.

Indian officials told Reuters they had tried and failed to set up a similar system because of the difficulty of using aircraft sourced from multiple countries.

Although the downed Rafale plane did not have stealth capabilities, the CCTV programme strongly suggested that the use of integrated systems and “missiles with eyes” could allow the PLA to take on more advanced planes such as the US’ F-22 and F-35.

One pilot, Wang Yuqian, told CCTV “it’s not impossible to beat new [models] with old ones”, and that future warfare would be “a battle between entire systems”.

American Mathematical Society fellow Li Hanfeng joins China’s Chongqing University

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3320453/american-mathematical-society-fellow-li-hanfeng-joins-chinas-chongqing-university?utm_source=rss_feed

There are four top-tier journals in mathematics academia: Annals of Mathematics, Inventiones Mathematicae, Journal of the American Mathematical Society and Acta Mathematica.

These journals put out only about 100 articles each year, and publishing even one is a mark of a leading mathematician. It is very rare to publish in all four.

Li Hanfeng published 10 in total across all four between 2005 and 2019.

The leading China-born mathematician has now returned from the United States.

Chongqing University announced his appointment as a professor last month, and his name is listed on the university’s website.

Li earned his bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Peking University in 1997 and his PhD from the University of California, Berkeley in 2002.

Between 2002 and 2005, he carried out postdoctoral research at the University of Toronto in Canada, before joining the University at Buffalo (UB), the State University of New York.

His main research interests are noncommutative geometry and dynamical systems, especially connections between operator algebras and dynamical systems.

Li has also made significant contributions to the mathematical study of entropy, with a special focus on sofic entropy.

Entropy is a concept derived from physical thermodynamics, where heat spontaneously flows from objects of higher temperature to those of lower temperature until thermal equilibrium is reached. The principle of entropy increase is considered the foundation for the unidirectional flow of time in the physical world.

Dynamical systems are mathematical systems that describe the changes in a space surrounding a point over time, using functions such as the swinging of a pendulum, the flow of water in a pipe or the annual springtime population of fish in a lake.

Entropy is used to quantify the complexity or unpredictability of the dynamical system in maths.

“Li briefly explained his understanding of entropy to me, which was like a sudden enlightenment,” a maths professor commented on the Chinese academic discussion platform Zhihu in 2019. “His expansion of the concept of entropy and his discovery of its profound connections with operator algebra were remarkable.”

Li was named to the American Mathematical Society’s (AMS) 2021 class of fellows for his contributions to algebraic dynamics and operator algebras.

The AMS fellows programme recognises members from around the world who have made outstanding contributions to the creation, exposition, advancement, communication and use of mathematics. Li was among 46 people given that honour that year.

Welcoming the news, UB maths chair Gino Biondini said: “Li’s selection in the 2021 class of AMS fellows is a well-deserved recognition for his outstanding work. We are very proud to have him as a colleague.”

The university website still features the various awards and recognitions for Li, who was named a UB distinguished professor last year.

He also received a UB exceptional scholar award for sustained achievement in 2014.

However, his personal homepage on the UB website now only provides a link to his new website, stating simply: “I have moved to Chongqing University.”

Li is the latest China-born scientist to move back to China, as American universities reduce research funding under pressure from Washington, especially for pure sciences such as maths.

Sharp US government funding cuts, especially for agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, have resulted in grant suspensions, project halts and career uncertainty, especially for younger scientists.

Prominent mathematician Terence Tao at the University of California, Los Angeles posted about the crunch on social media on Saturday.

“The funds have been frozen, and in order to pay the students’ salaries, [I have] not received [my] own salary for the entire summer,” he wrote.

“And this is just a small portion of the frozen funds.”

China’s Baidu partners with Lyft to launch robotaxis in UK and Germany as soon as 2026

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3320674/chinas-baidu-partners-lyft-launch-robotaxis-uk-and-germany-soon-2026?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese internet search giant Baidu is partnering with US ride-hailing firm Lyft to launch robotaxis in Europe, marking the latest initiative by a Chinese company to expand its autonomous-driving technologies globally.

Under the partnership, the companies plan to introduce autonomous vehicles in Germany and the UK as early as 2026, pending approval from local regulators, according to a joint announcement by Beijing-based Baidu and San Francisco-based Lyft on Monday.

The companies said they expected to roll out thousands of robotaxis across Europe in the coming years.

Baidu last month also secured a deal with ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies to deploy thousands of Baidu Apollo Go robotaxis in markets outside the US and mainland China.

The deals are part of a broader trend among Chinese autonomous-driving companies to bring their services to international markets, especially as US electric-vehicle maker Tesla ramps up its robotaxi initiatives. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced plans to launch robotaxi services in Chicago, following trials in Austin, Texas.

Chinese autonomous-driving companies including Pony.ai, Momenta and WeRide have formed similar alliances with Uber to deploy robotaxi fleets in global markets, particularly in Europe and the Middle East.

In May, Guangzhou-based Pony.ai and Uber said they were teaming up to offer driverless rides in the Middle East, with plans to deploy Pony.ai robotaxis on Uber’s platform in an unspecified key market in the region before expanding globally.

Similarly, Uber has partnered with Momenta to introduce self-driving vehicles in markets outside the US and China, including a launch in Europe in 2026. The US company has also partnered with Guangzhou-based WeRide to launch robotaxi fleets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, with plans to expand into 15 more Middle Eastern and European cities.

Baidu co-founder and CEO Li Yan said the partnership with Lyft represented “a significant milestone” in the Chinese company’s global expansion and highlighted its commitment to making autonomous mobility accessible worldwide.

“By integrating Baidu’s cutting-edge autonomous driving technology with Lyft’s platform reach and operational expertise, we’re excited to deliver safer, greener and more efficient mobility solutions to more users,” Li said.

The wave of new partnerships underscored the acceleration of commercialisation efforts among Chinese robotaxi operators, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note last month.

Further progress was expected in the coming years, as companies expanded fleet sizes, increased ride volumes and explored new business models, the analysts added.

Beijing’s E-Town offers subsidies to robot buyers as China embraces humanoids

https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3320679/beijings-e-town-offers-subsidies-robot-buyers-china-embraces-humanoids?utm_source=rss_feed

A hi-tech area in Beijing will host a shopping festival for robots, where buyers can receive up to 250,000 yuan (US$34,700) in subsidies when purchasing robots from some of the country’s leading manufacturers of the advanced technology.

The event, which runs through August 17, will cover products from leading Chinese brands such as Unitree Robotics and UBTech Robotics, according to a Sunday post from the administrative body of Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, also known as E-Town, a state-backed hub for hi-tech manufacturing in southeastern Beijing.

The festival marks the launch of a new shop specialising in robot purchases and maintenance, which is scheduled to open on Friday in the E-Town area. Besides Unitree and UBTech, the shop will also feature Tien Kung, a humanoid machine from the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Centre, backed by UBTech and Xiaomi, and SenseRobot Go, a Go-playing robot from artificial intelligence giant SenseTime.

Corporate clients who purchase products worth 5 million yuan at the shop would be eligible for a subsidy of 250,000 yuan. Individual buyers at the store can save 1,500 yuan if the order is over 10,000 yuan.

Online shoppers also qualify for discounts. JD.com, one of China’s largest online marketplaces, which is headquartered in E-Town, has launched a dedicated channel for the shopping festival, offering more than 680 robot models from 63 brands including EngineAI, whose PM01 performed the world’s first robot frontflip in February, and Limx Dynamics, backed by JD.com and Alibaba Group Holding. Alibaba owns the Post.

Consumers buying on JD.com can receive a 600 yuan discount on orders worth more than 6,000 yuan. The starting discount, 50 yuan off, applies to orders worth at least 500 yuan.

The initiative marks China’s efforts to accelerate consumer and enterprise adoption of the technology. The annual World Robot Conference is slated to kick off on Friday in Beijing’s E-Town.

China has become a major hub for robot production. In the first half of the year, the country’s total output of industrial robots surged 36 per cent to surpass 369,000 units, while production of service robots – used for tasks like delivery and cleaning – jumped 26 per cent to 8.8 million units, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Some traditional tech companies have ventured into the burgeoning sector. Hikvision, a leading video surveillance supplier, was making “steady” progress in the spin-off and listing of its robotics unit, Hangzhou Hikrobot, according to a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Saturday.

A company executive said during an earnings call on Saturday that Hikrobot “was lining up” to be listed on ChiNext, according to a report by Chinese media Jiemian. The ChiNext board, which hosts smaller companies, accepted the listing application in 2023 but has since asked the firm several times to clarify certain issues.

Hikvision’s robotics unit has become the biggest source of revenue for its noncore businesses, generating 3.1 billion yuan in the first six months of 2025, accounting for 7.5 per cent of the total.

Taiwan and mainland China coastguards engage in close Dongsha Island encounter

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3320681/taiwan-and-mainland-china-coastguards-engage-close-dongsha-island-encounter?utm_source=rss_feed

Taiwanese and mainland coastguard vessels engaged in a tense 22-hour stand-off near the disputed Dongsha Islands in the South China Sea on the weekend, the latest in a series of incidents that Taipei sees as a deliberate test of its maritime response.

According to Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration, the confrontation began on Saturday afternoon when its Dongsha command detected the mainland vessel 3102 sailing southward towards the island group, which is administered by Taiwan but also claimed by Beijing.

“The Chinese vessel was first spotted around 2.50pm on August 2, approximately 28.1 nautical miles northwest of Dongsha Island,” the administration said on Monday. “Based on its trajectory and speed, our Dongsha command judged that the vessel was on course to enter our waters.”

Repeated radio broadcasts ordering the vessel to turn away were ignored, so Taiwan sent the 1,000-tonne Hsun Hu No 8 armed patrol ship to shadow the mainland boat. By around 5.34pm, the mainland vessel had reached a position just 10.3 nautical miles southwest of Dongsha Island.

“At around 6pm, the Chinese coastguard ship shut off its automatic identification system (AIS) in an apparent attempt to evade detection,” the administration said. Taiwan’s patrol vessel continued parallel monitoring, using shipboard radar to track the vessel’s movements, it said.

Roughly an hour later, the mainland vessel reactivated its AIS and abruptly changed course, heading north. “At one point during the stand-off, the two ships were separated by just one nautical mile,” the agency noted.

The mainland vessel withdrew at around 3.45pm on Sunday, sailing north-northwest at nine knots from a position about 27.9 nautical miles north of Dongsha Island.

“Judging from its manoeuvres – including shutting off AIS and frequent course changes – we do not rule out that this was a deliberate test of our maritime patrol deployment and response protocols,” the administration said.

The agency vowed to continue deploying large patrol ships to the Dongsha area to firmly safeguard Taiwan’s rights and security. It also called on like-minded partners to join its efforts.

Beijing has yet to comment publicly on the incident.

In recent years, mainland Chinese coastguard vessels have frequently entered waters around Dongsha, prompting Taipei to dispatch armed patrol ships to intercept or monitor them.

The Dongsha Islands – also known as the Pratas Islands – are located in the northern part of the South China Sea. The group includes the 2.8km-long (1.7-mile) Dongsha Island as well as the surrounding atoll and two submerged banks. Though uninhabited except for Taiwanese military and coastguard personnel, Dongsha occupies a strategic location along key international shipping lanes.

The latest incident adds to a growing pattern of “grey-zone” activity, coercive actions by Beijing that stop short of open conflict and are meant to test Taiwan’s readiness and resolve.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. It has increased military pressure on the island and cut off official talks since the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2016.

Like most countries, the United States does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but it opposes any unilateral change to the status quo and is obliged to provide Taiwan with weapons for defence under the Taiwan Relations Act.

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China eyes bigger global role for yuan as US dollar stability questioned

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3320690/china-eyes-bigger-global-role-yuan-us-dollar-stability-questioned?utm_source=rss_feed

China is stepping up efforts to internationalise the yuan, as growing doubts about the US dollar’s stability provide a window of opportunity for the currency.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced at its midyear meeting that it would expedite the yuan’s use in trade settlement and cross-border financing.

“[We’ll] accelerate the expansion of the yuan’s use in trade, further enhance its financing function and optimise policies governing funding pools and overseas listings of domestic companies,” the central bank said.

It also pledged to strengthen the offshore market and establish stable liquidity supply channels across a full range of maturities, while speeding up the development of overseas clearing banks through Beijing’s yuan-denominated Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).

This marked the first time in three years that China’s central bank has included a dedicated section on yuan internationalisation in its midyear meeting readout.

The statement aligns with Beijing’s broader strategy to raise the yuan’s global profile amid mounting concerns over US debt sustainability and rising geopolitical tensions, which have cast fresh doubt on the dollar’s dominance.

Ray Dalio, the legendary investor who recently sold his remaining shares in Bridgewater Associates and stepped down from its board, issued a stark warning about the US economy last month. In a social media post, he cautioned that it could face an “economic heart attack” unless the government reins in the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP.

In June, Dalio – who has many followers in China – published the book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

Back in April, he argued that the old monetary order – in which countries like China produce goods cheaply and accumulate US debt while Americans borrow from those same countries to consume and pile up liabilities – was no longer sustainable.

“Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing,” he wrote.

The yuan internationalisation index, released by Renmin University a week ago, rose by about 11 per cent in 2024 – further weakening the US dollar’s dominance. The report’s authors said the trend had given Beijing added leverage to push for reforms in the global monetary system and mitigate geoeconomic risks.

At the People’s Bank of China meeting, held last Friday, the central bank reiterated its commitment to deeper participation in global financial governance and shaping international financial rules.

It highlighted its efforts in institutionalising cooperation between the Chinese and European Central Bank governors through an annual meeting mechanism, as well as promoting collaboration under the China-EU financial working group.

In Asia, it said it had pushed for the creation of a new rapid financing facility under the Chiang Mai Initiative, involving freely usable currencies such as the yuan.

Jiao Jie, dean of Tsinghua University’s PBC School of Finance, and Lu Yi, a chair professor at the same school, wrote last month that “China is gradually shifting from a rule-taker to an institutional rule-maker in global economic governance.”

“The institutional paradigm for global economic governance has yet to take shape”, they wrote, adding that it would be influenced by the restructuring of multilateral coordination, rule-based technological governance and a more diversified international monetary system.

“In this period of transformation, China is not only an important driver of the emerging paradigm for global economic governance, but also a key contributor to the stability of global governance.”

Slovak PM Robert Fico to attend China’s WWII commemorations amid EU tensions

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3320676/slovak-pm-robert-fico-attend-chinas-wwii-commemorations-amid-eu-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has confirmed he will attend China’s World War II commemorations next month, making him the first EU leader to publicly announce his plans to be at the event, which will feature a military parade in Tiananmen Square.

“Apparently, I will visit China again on the occasion of the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II,” Fico said in a video posted on his private social media account on Sunday.

“I would like to use this visit to confirm joint economic projects and intentions.”

Fico is the first leader of a Nato member state to confirm attendance at the commemoration.

His comes as Brussels and Beijing struggle to bridge their broad political divide, with the two parties failing to make any major progress at a summit last month.

Like his Central European counterpart, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Fico has been widely seen as an outlier on foreign policy among fellow EU politicians, given his moves to forge better ties with China and to challenge the 27-member bloc’s approach on Russia.

If it goes ahead, Fico’s China trip would be his second to Beijing in less than a year and would set the stage for his third meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since November.

The two leaders last met in May in Moscow on the sidelines of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, where Fico was also the only leader from the European Union and the transatlantic security alliance present.

Xi said China hoped Slovakia would play a “constructive” role in promoting the development of China-EU relations, while Fico said that deepening the strategic partnership with Beijing was among the top priorities of Bratislava’s foreign policy, according to a Chinese statement after the meeting.

During their talks in November in Beijing, Fico said Slovakia was ready to join a group launched by China and Brazil at the United Nations to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine.

China announced two months ago that its military parade would take place on September 3, as part of events marking the 80th anniversary of the day that China marks as its triumph over the Japanese invasion and the global victory against fascism.

The event will take place a decade after the People’s Liberation Army first held a Victory Day parade. In 2015, then-Czech president Milos Zeman, a long-standing advocate of closer ties with China, was the only EU and Nato leader present.

At the meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa in Beijing two weeks ago, Xi urged them to make “the right strategic choice”.

Chinese experts have also warned that the latest trade deal between Brussels and the Trump administration may deepen the EU’s economic and security dependence on Washington.

In the video posted on Sunday, Fico characterised the American tariffs against the EU – which were reduced to 15 per cent – as “the result of European subordination and inability to behave more sovereignly” towards the US.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Sunday that he would visit China from September 1 to 6, and that he might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during the trip.

“I have heard that [US President Donald] Trump may also come, but I’m not sure,” Vucic said during a live stream from the Serbian state news agency Tanjug.

The Kremlin, which has confirmed Putin’s visit to Beijing in September, said last month that no plans were under way for a summit with Trump but such a meeting remained a possibility.

The symbolic impact and diplomatic risks of inviting Trump to attend next month’s parade have been debated in China over the past few weeks, but the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea in November is widely expected to be the more likely opportunity for Xi and Trump to meet in person this year.

Trump said a week ago that he was not seeking a summit with his Chinese counterpart.

“I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended,” he posted on social media.

Seaside meeting of experts a clue to the summer migration of China’s political elite

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3320667/seaside-meeting-experts-clue-summer-migration-chinas-political-elite?utm_source=rss_feed

The appearance of President Xi Jinping’s chief of staff at the Beidaihe resort on Sunday indicates that senior Chinese leaders have started their annual summer break.

In keeping with an annual protocol, Cai Qi hosted more than three dozen Chinese academics and scientists in the seaside city, saying “experts and talented individuals are valuable assets to the party and the country”, according to a report published by state broadcaster CCTV on Sunday.

State media reports said the attendees were experts from hi-tech industries, as well as young talent engaged in fundamental research and scholars of philosophy and the social sciences.

Last year, invitations were extended to researchers in artificial intelligence, deep-sea exploration and quantum physics, highlighting the country’s drive for tech self-reliance.

Cai, who ranks fifth in the ruling Communist Party hierarchy, is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and director of the party’s general office. His appearance indicates that the senior Chinese leadership has started its unofficial annual retreat to Beidaihe, a seaside town 300km (186 miles) east of Beijing.

The tradition was started in the 1950s by leaders, including Mao Zedong, who worked from there during the summer. Beidaihe was long used by Chinese leaders to set the political agenda and strategy during a less busy time in their political calendar. It is believed to be used mostly as a summer holiday retreat these days rather than a meeting venue for political leaders.

In recent years, the leaders’ August break has lasted around 10 to 14 days. During this time, top political leaders have a reduced public presence in China, although they appear when urgent matters, such as natural disasters, arise.

Details about how long leaders will stay at the resort are not made public, but Qinghuadao, the city in Hebei province that governs Beidaihe, announced in May that drones and other low-altitude aircraft would be banned in July and August, a clear indication that stricter security measures would be in place.

Also attending Sunday’s reception was the party’s personnel chief and Politburo member Shi Taifeng and state councillor Shen Yiqin, who oversees work related to the education and welfare of children and women.

The party’s summer gathering comes on the heels of an announcement by China’s ruling Communist Party last week that declared the schedule for the much-anticipated fourth plenum – a key annual conclave – for October, with a main focus on deliberating the next five-year plan for the country’s economic, political and social goals amid competition with the United States.

The coming plenary session will be attended by more than 370 Central Committee members of the party elite.

Xi has called on cadres to “listen to public voices and pool public wisdom” when drafting the next five-year plan, according to an account of his written instruction published by CCTV on Monday.

The summer gathering also comes a month before China is set to host a military parade to commemorate the end of World War II.

Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are among the world leaders expected to attend the event in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on September 3.

And, starting in late August, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will convene in China’s coastal Tianjin.

The SCO was established in 2001 by China and Russia – along with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – to ease border tensions. Its central aim is to battle the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.

China trio diagnosed with bacterial infection after eating ‘nutritious’ cooked sheep placenta

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/article/3319990/china-trio-diagnosed-bacterial-infection-after-eating-nutritious-cooked-sheep-placenta?utm_source=rss_feed

Three people in China had to be hospitalised after they ate sheep placenta for “nutritious” purposes, sparking an online discussion about the custom.

A woman, surnamed Zhang, in southern China’s Guangdong province was reported to have developed frequent fevers and lost 5kg in weight over a short period after she cooked the “dish”.

She went to hospital and was diagnosed with brucellosis, a type of bacterial infection spread from animals to humans.

Zhang’s sister and brother-in-law were diagnosed with the same disease after eating the “tonic”.

The placenta is an organ that forms in the uterus during pregnancy and is considered a highly nutritious ingredient in China.

In Traditional Chinese Medicine, the placenta is known as ziheche.

It is believed to strengthen the immune system, treat fatigue, infertility and a lack of energy.

Ziheche was traditionally made of human placenta, but China banned its trade in 2005.

The ziheche medicine on sale now is made of sheep, cow and deer placentas. It costs about 100 yuan (US$14) per 50 grams.

However, the black market trade in human placenta reportedly remains rampant.

In March, a Chinese doctor was filmed sneaking out the placenta of a woman in a bin bag after she gave birth.

The case sparked a heated discussion about the traditional beliefs surrounding the placenta.

A doctor at the Beijing Shunyi District Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Xie Ying, said the placenta is mainly a source of protein, which loses its effect after being cooked.

Also, bacteria and viruses might survive the cooking process, bringing more harm than benefit.

In 2024, a woman with uremia suffered from severe pain and was diagnosed with spondylitis caused by brucellosis. It turned out that her daughter had cooked sheep placenta for her over a three-year period in the hope of boosting her health.

In Zhang’s case, the doctor at the Eight Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuang Peng, told Shenzhen TV that the cause of the illness might be that the placenta was undercooked.

“There are so many nutrients that are more beneficial than placenta now. This old belief should be ditched,” one online observer said.

“Some people who ask for their own placenta after giving birth, so that they can eat it later,” said another.

China pledges support for peaceful development in Horn of Africa

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3320638/china-pledges-support-peaceful-development-horn-africa?utm_source=rss_feed

China has reaffirmed its support for peaceful development in the Horn of Africa, saying it would “actively engage” in regional initiatives to promote the concept.

Beijing’s special envoy Xue Bing made the pledge at a conference on the topic in the Ugandan capital Kampala on Tuesday, a Chinese-led event that involved representatives from eight countries in East Africa.

Xue said Beijing would offer military assistance and training, as well as helping to develop the region’s infrastructure and boosting trade.

“The world today faces overlapping risks and challenges that threaten peace and development in the Horn of Africa, and all parties should engage in dialogue and cooperation to maintain universal security and achieve common prosperity,” Xue told the event, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

Xue outlined further areas of cooperation, including counterterrorism and landmine eradication, while stressing China’s support for “African-led solutions” through platforms such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

At the China-led conference, which brought together regional countries including Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, Xue declared that “China is committed to actively engage with regional countries in various initiatives that promote peace and development.”

Under its Belt and Road Initiative, China has funded and built huge infrastructure projects in the region, including a railroad from the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to Djibouti.

The Global Security Initiative (GSI) is a Chinese-led framework for global security, promoting dialogue and non-interference, which differs from Western models that mostly rely on military alliances and interventions. Through its “peaceful development” concept for the Horn of Africa, China promotes economic development as a solution to problems in the region. It sees support for development and avoidance of direct involvement in these disputes as less risky and less likely to make enemies for China.

But, given the complex nature of conflicts in the region, such as the civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia, analysts said China was likely to avoid direct intervention.

Seifudein Adem, a global affairs specialist and visiting professor at Doshisha University in Kyoto, said China’s role in the Horn of Africa “is a continuation of its decades-old policy”.

“However, one can also sense China’s desire to expand and deepen its security cooperation with countries in the region and its openness about wanting to do so,” Adem said.

The Ethiopian-born professor added that because the conflicts in the Horn of Africa were “complex, multifaceted and deep rooted, I think the effectiveness of China’s peacemaking diplomacy in the region has been rather limited”.

But he said: “China is nevertheless in the process of learning. The countries in the region are also apparently grateful to China for its active engagement in the peace effort.”

Xue was appointed in 2022 to help broker peace in the region, which includes China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti.

At the Kampala event, Xue said China was ready to negotiate and sign the Agreement on China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development.

China also recently unveiled a plan to expand zero-tariff treatment for all African countries except for eSwatini, with which it does not have diplomatic relations.

“China will also encourage more Chinese enterprises to invest in the region, increase the added value of their products and localisation to boost economies and create jobs,” Xue said, according to Uganda’s foreign ministry.

At the opening ceremony, John Mulimba, Uganda’s minister of state for foreign affairs, thanked the Chinese government for its strong cooperation with Africa to promote peace and sustainable development, and for supporting a regional dialogue framework that emphasised African leadership.

Analysts said while Beijing’s attempts to link economic development to stability had helped frame its approach to the region, there were limitations to what it could do to solve the region’s conflicts.

David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, doubted whether China had the “expertise, resources, or even the will” to do so.

“China has used most of these tools in the Horn of Africa in the past and they have had minimal impact,” Shinn said. “Whatever China can do to mitigate conflict in the Horn of Africa is welcome, but history suggests we should be realistic concerning the results.”

Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said China prioritised development and infrastructure investments through its Belt and Road Initiative, and has also engaged in diplomatic efforts in Sudan and South Sudan.

“China’s record regarding creating peace in Africa is not great,” Odgaard said, but added that these conflicts involving multiple actors were difficult to resolve.

“These include warring factions, international institutions like the UN, the EU and the African Union, and various other countries that aim to be both peace brokers and economic agents. This is certainly the case in the Horn of Africa,” she said.

“Therefore, China’s limited track record as a peace broker and the complexity of these conflicts make it very difficult for the country to be successful.”

However, she noted that China’s efforts “may influence peace and conflict in the Horn of Africa by influencing the behaviour of actors”, for example by encouraging warring parties to compromise by offering development opportunities in neglected regions.

“China may create incentives for conflicting parties to be more compromising and interested in peace. This is particularly relevant as tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia are growing.”

Innovent, BeOne are poised for profits in 2025, in milestone for Chinese biotech start-ups

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3320623/innovent-beone-are-poised-profits-2025-milestone-chinese-biotech-start-ups?utm_source=rss_feed

A pair of Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese biotechnology firms are poised to turn a profit this year as their revenue from novel drugs finally outstrips costs related to research and development and marketing, according to analysts.

“Chinese biotechs have matured significantly and are creating value for Chinese patients and government payers,” said Tony Ren, head of Asia healthcare research at Macquarie Capital, in a report on July 16. “[Some will] likely turn profitable soon and no longer rely on investors for funding.”

Suzhou-based Innovent Biologics, the first Chinese company to be approved to sell a drug for weight loss and diabetes, is expected to swing to a first-half net profit of 260 million yuan (US$36.4 million) from a year-earlier loss of 392.6 million yuan, according to an estimate from Zhang Jialin, Nomura’s head of China healthcare research.

According to a consensus estimate from Bloomberg, the company was expected to post a net profit of 472 million yuan for 2025, its first full-year profit since going public. Innovent, founded in 2011, was one of the first batch of firms to go public in 2018 under a Hong Kong listing regime that allowed drug and medical device developers with no profit or revenue to sell shares.

In the second half, Zhang estimated that Innovent would book 1 billion yuan in sales from mazdutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) weight loss drug launched in July.

That would amount to a sixth of the company’s total expected revenue for this year, making it a key contributor to the improved bottom line. Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, the first GLP-1 drug launched in China last year for weight loss, generated revenue of 770 million yuan in the first quarter.

BeOne, a developer of oncology drugs that was established in 2010, was expected by analysts to post a net profit of US$42 million for the first half and a full-year profit of US$109.5 million. The company will announce its first-half results on August 6.

The company’s profit growth was driven primarily by sales of its blood cancer drug zanubrutinib in the US and Europe, Zhang said.

Innovent and BeOne, along with other Chinese biotech firms like Akeso, have booked billions of yuan in upfront revenue over the past few years from licensing drug candidates to multinational partners for overseas development.

But despite an increase in deals in recent years, milestone payments in the drug development process were hard to predict because collaborations were often cut short due to shifting competitive considerations and regulatory hurdles, Macquarie’s Ren said.

For example, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in March 2022 rejected an application from Eli Lilly to sell Innovent’s lead oncology drug, sintilimab, to treat the most common type of lung cancer in the US, even though it was approved in China a year earlier. While the FDA recommended that an additional multi-regional clinical study be conducted, the drug has still not been approved in the US.

In mid-2019, Celgene returned to BeOne the exclusive right to develop and commercialise the Chinese firm’s immunotherapy drug candidate, tislelizumab, ahead of Celgene’s impending acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb. The American drug firm already had an approved treatment in the same category. Celgene terminated the deal by paying BeOne US$150 million.

In 2021, BeOne re-licensed the rights for the same drug to Switzerland’s Novartis, which in 2023 returned them, citing a changing market landscape. BeOne subsequently took over the drug’s development and won approvals to launch it in the European Union and the US.

“Most licensing deals, including ones from China, are small [in actual payments] and hardly affect the licensers’ financial performance over the medium to long term,” Ren said.

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Is Saudi Arabia the next Dubai for Hong Kong and mainland Chinese property investors?

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3320480/saudi-arabia-next-dubai-hong-kong-and-mainland-chinese-property-investors?utm_source=rss_feed

Saudi Arabia could replicate the success of Dubai in attracting foreign property investors, including those from Hong Kong and mainland China, following the kingdom’s relaxation of homebuying rules, according to experts.

A new law approved by the kingdom last month is set to allow non-Saudis to buy real estate in designated zones. The law will take effect in January.

“Saudi Arabia can absolutely succeed at making itself a major destination for investment and residency,” said Kashif Ansari, co-founder and CEO of real estate broker Juwai IQI. “The new law will give non-resident foreigners a clear path to own property in Saudi Arabia for the first time.”

Ansari said the Saudi capital of Riyadh and another major city, Jeddah, offer greater value than Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For comparably sized residential units, the average price per square foot in Jeddah is US$100 and in Riyadh, it is US$123. In Dubai, that figure rises to US$400.

Foreigners owned around 43 per cent of all homes in Dubai, according to data compiled by the think tank EU Tax Observatory. Sales of homes in Dubai worth more than 10 million dirhams (US$2.7 million) jumped tenfold to 4,670 in 2024 from 2020, according to data tracked by Savills. In the first quarter of this year, 1,300 such homes changed hands, up 31 per cent from a year earlier, the property consultancy added.

Chinese buyers accounted for 14 per cent of Dubai property sales so far this year, up from 13 per cent a year earlier, Savills said.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong and the UK were the top sources of ultra-wealthy individuals who owned a second home in Abu Dhabi, according to a study released last month by US-based Altrata, which tracks wealthy individuals.

Saudi Arabia’s property market was projected to nearly double in size from now to US$133 billion by 2033, according to Patricia Casaburi, CEO of Global Citizen Solutions, a boutique investment migration consultancy with offices in the UK, Portugal and Brazil.

“What really catches my attention are the rental yields,” Casaburi said. “At a 6.75 per cent average and with Riyadh hitting nearly 9 per cent, these returns significantly outperform most developed markets. Combine that with zero personal income tax, no capital gains tax and no inheritance tax and the net returns become even more attractive.”

Casaburi likened the kingdom’s plan to relax rules surrounding foreign property ownership to the evolution of Dubai’s market when it opened to international buyers. Liquidity and accessibility in the kingdom should increase, she said.

Under the Saudi Vision 2030 plan, the country is modernising and diversifying its economy to reduce its reliance on oil. The initiative included mega infrastructure projects such as The Line, a glass-panelled development billed as the crown jewel of Neom, a city that is being built in Tabuk province.

“Since the launch of the [plan], the real estate market in Saudi Arabia has grown noticeably,” said Jihad Elabbas, senior client adviser in the Middle East and North Africa at migration consultancy Henley & Partners.

“Heavy investment in infrastructure has been a key factor, including the new metro service in the capital and the upcoming opening of King Salman Park, which is said to be the largest urban park in the world,” he said.

Juwai IQI’s Ansari said Muslims were the most likely to invest, noting “significant pent-up demand among high-net-worth” individuals.

Investors based in Hong Kong and mainland China who have business interests in the kingdom might also be interested in buying homes there, Ansari said.

“Chinese companies are actively engaged in projects across Saudi Arabia and the local Chinese expat population is growing,” he said.

Between 2005 and June 2024, China invested US$53.85 billion in infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia, according to data cited in January by the Carnegie Foundation, a US-based think tank.

Ansari said Saudi Arabia could further relax residency rules to attract foreign investors.

“Riyadh can unlock demand at scale from Greater China with more inviting residency rules,” Ansari said. “Crucially, Beijing and Hong Kong buyers will compare Saudi entry rules with Dubai’s. So, the two countries will be competing on their residency terms. With golden visa rules similar to those in the UAE, Saudi Arabia will be appealing to investors and to families looking for relocation or second-home status.”

Casaburi of Global Citizen said Dubai was appealing to lifestyle investors and those seeking established international communities, while Saudi Arabia was positioning itself to attract institutional money and family offices.

Saudi Arabia was moving steadily towards becoming a destination for wealthy families, said Elabbas of Henley.

“However, it is to be expected that the kingdom will take some time to catch up with its neighbour, the UAE,” he said.

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Chinese scientists draw on Ukraine war lessons and propose an upgrade for PLA drones

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3320573/chinese-scientists-draw-ukraine-war-lessons-and-propose-upgrade-pla-drones?utm_source=rss_feed

In Ukraine, about nine in 10 Russian drones have been shot down by advanced air defences, according to various estimates.

Ukrainian air force data suggested that about 15 per cent of drones had penetrated its defences between April and June — rising from just 5 per cent previously.

But a group of Chinese aerospace engineers and defence researchers have now proposed a radical technological enhancement for combat drones that may dramatically increase their ability to survive to nearly 90 per cent.

At the heart of the proposal was an innovative concept: fitting compact, side-mounted rocket boosters to small or medium-sized drones so they can perform instantaneous, high-G manoeuvres in the final seconds before a missile impact.

According to the researchers, this “terminal evasion” system allowed drones to perform abrupt, unpredictable course changes that even the most sophisticated missiles could not track or follow.

In extensive digital simulations detailed in a paper published in the Chinese defence journal Acta Armamentarii last month, the system saw a huge improvement in survival rates, passing 87 per cent.

In many cases, the drones effectively caused missiles to detonate harmlessly in empty space.

In modern wars, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, combatants have “extensively employed drones for reconnaissance and aerial combat, making [them] increasingly crucial on the battlefield,” wrote the project team led by Bi Wenhao, an associate researcher with the National Key Laboratory of Aircraft Configuration Design in Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xian.

Chinese military analysts, after studying the war in Ukraine and other areas, “place higher demands on the evasion capability and survivability of unmanned combat aircraft,” the team wrote.

Traditionally, drones are expected to make evasive moves long before the missile hits, but this can end their mission. As an alternative, Bi’s team suggested taking evasive action at the last possible moment.

The concept hinges on three critical principles, the first is precise timing, which means the anti-drone missile must ignite within a one to two-second window before impact – early enough to alter trajectory, late enough to deny the missile time to correct.

The second is directional intelligence: the system must determine whether to climb, dive, or veer laterally based on the missile’s approach vector.

The last of the three is thrust: the boosters must generate at least 16Gs of acceleration – far beyond what conventional aerodynamic control surfaces can achieve – ensuring a sudden, disorienting shift in flight path.

The project team faced some formidable challenges in integrating the rockets into a drone’s airframe without disrupting aerodynamic stability.

The forces unleashed during ignition must be perfectly synchronised with the drone’s flight control surfaces and onboard software – otherwise, the violent thrust could cause the aircraft to spin out of control or disintegrate mid-air.

Moreover, the system operates within a razor-thin time window. The booster burns for only about two seconds. Any delay – by mere fractions of a second – could render the manoeuvre useless.

There are also trade-offs that have to be considered. Adding weight, consuming payload space, and reducing fuel capacity all threatened the drone’s range and mission endurance.

The researchers said they had validated their model through thousands of combat simulations and found that their evasion algorithm was able to execute complex compound manoeuvres to maximise the drones’ ability to evade defences.

Once successfully miniaturised and integrated, such evasion systems could transform inexpensive drones into formidable, resilient strike platforms – capable of surviving in airspace once considered too dangerous.

In a conflict such as the war in Ukraine, where drones have already proven pivotal in intelligence gathering and precision attacks, a survivability boost of this magnitude could dramatically alter the nature of aerial warfare.

However, the concept has yet to be tested on a real battlefield. The drone would need to see the threat coming, sometimes from more than 200km (120 miles) away, and requires support from an integrated space-air-ground surveillance network.

Other challenges to overcome include delayed data transmission, particularly from distant satellites; signal jamming and misinformation; and insufficient onboard computing power for split-second decision-making.

The technology was designed to evade missiles with a top speed of Mach 4. Its effectiveness against hypersonic weapons remains unknown.

China twin brothers both score 666 points in crucial exam, astonish many with coincidence

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/article/3319959/china-twin-brothers-both-score-666-points-crucial-exam-astonish-many-coincidence?utm_source=rss_feed

Twin brothers in China have captivated social media after they both scored 666 points in the crucial national college entrance examination and were admitted to the same programme at the same university.

People online have described the twins, Zeng Zichong and Zeng Ziyi, from Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, in southeastern China, as having achieved “god-level synchronicity”.

The pair have never been separated since kindergarten.

The older brother, Zichong, said that his name symbolises “a bird soaring into the sky”, while his younger brother’s name means “to assist and help”.

It reflects the hope of their parents that the brothers would always support each other.

In primary school, their academic performance was nearly the same, and both were admitted to Hangzhou Xuejun High School.

When the results of the Chinese national college entrance examination, or “gaokao”, were released, the twins were out taking driving lessons.

It was their father who first saw the score notifications on his phone.

Their mother quickly shared the coincidence in the family group chat, leaving even the brothers themselves astonished.

“At first, we could not believe it. It was not until we checked it several times that we realised we had actually got the same score!” the pair said.

The twins are also known for their shared interests as they both enjoy playing games, watching television, and often visit the library together.

Zichong excels in Chinese and English while Ziyi shines in mathematics and physics. They often support each other by explaining complex concepts.

Their shared passion for computer science and artificial intelligence also led them to apply for, and ultimately be admitted to, the same university programme.

That course is the Engineering Experimental Class (Computer Science and Technology) at the famous Xi’an Jiaotong University in Shaanxi province, northern China.

Zichong said he chose the university because of its rich legacy and strong academic reputation, while Ziyi added that he was also drawn to the university because Xi’an is a city full of cultural charm.

On July 25, the university’s official social media account congratulated the brothers.

“This incredible synchronicity is not only fate but a testament to their strength. We look forward to seeing the brothers chase their dreams side by side and shine even brighter,” the university’s post said.

The brothers plan to continue walking the same path.

“We hope to study and work in the same city in the future,” the brothers told Zhejiang Daily Press Group.

The story sparked a lively discussion on mainland social media.

One person said: “This is god-level synchronicity, twins really do have telepathy.”

Another expressed admiration: “Having one child like this would already be a blessing, but their parents have two!”

Jeffrey Sachs says US sabre-rattling at China can become self-fulfilling prophecy of war

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3320575/jeffrey-sachs-says-us-sabre-rattling-china-can-become-self-fulfilling-prophecy-war?utm_source=rss_feed

Jeffrey Sachs is an economics professor and director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is president of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. He was a special adviser to the UN Secretary General and has advised multiple governments on economic transition, debt crisis solutions and poverty alleviation policies. Part 1 of the Sachs interview, published in July last year, can be found . This interview first appeared in . For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click .

The United States learned that it can’t impose its will on China. The rare earths threat by itself was enough to cause the US to reconsider. So, almost immediately after putting on the high tariffs, the US backed down. And both sides know that each has some chokeholds on the other. For that reason, we might expect the two sides to maintain certain limits on the trade frictions in the years ahead. There will be, therefore, some kind of agreement, but it won’t stick in the details, and frictions will continue to wax and wane, with neither side definitively imposing its will on the other. The basic reason is that both sides have a mutual gain from continued trade. I’m hopeful that a measure of rationality will therefore prevail.

The biggest challenge, of course, is the behaviour of the US. The US started this trade war. This is not two sides fighting each other, but rather the US fighting China. We should remember that. The US needs to show some prudence at this point. I do suspect that there is a chastened view among many senior US officials. Trump himself is unpredictable. He has a very short attention span. Agreements with Trump don’t stick. So, I don’t foresee a quiet period, but I do foresee some limits to the competition because each side can do damage to the other and both sides have a strong reason to achieve some cooperation.

Let me add one more point. From a long-term point of view, China certainly should not regard the US as a growth market for its exports. The US is going to restrict China’s exports to the US one way or another. The relationship will not be harmonious. The US will not be friendly to China, or trustworthy. China should just take care that it’s expanding its exports to other markets, and should not be overly focused on trying to break through to the US market, or even to Europe for that matter. The rapid growth of China’s exports will be with Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, west Asia, Central Asia, Latin America – not with the US and western Europe.

I think that the Democrats will likely regain control of one or both houses of Congress, because in midterm elections that is generally the pattern.

Even without getting deeply specific about the current context, the prevailing party that holds the White House almost always loses ground in the midterms, and the Republican majority in both houses of Congress is very small. Having said this, we should also understand that Trump is ruling mainly by executive decree, not by legislation. Even if the Democrats regain one or both houses of Congress, Trump will continue with his decrees.

The US currently does not have a functioning constitutional system in my view. It is one-person rule by declarations of emergencies by Trump. The orders generally start with the statement: “By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered”. This is a kind of soft dictatorship, not a constitutional system. The lower courts object, but the Supreme Court lets Trump have his way. The Congress is nearly moribund.

Even if the Democrats regain some control of the House or the Senate, it won’t stop a lot of what Trump is doing. I should also add that while Americans are polarised, they generally dislike both political parties. Most Americans are unhappy about the direction of the country. They’re distrustful of the politicians. Our political institutions are not functioning properly and that’s why there’s a high level of distrust.

Another point that I think is important to understand is that the swings between the Democrats and the Republicans do not change US foreign policy. [Former president Barack] Obama started the anti-China policies in his term. Then came Trump’s tariffs in his first term. Biden kept those Trump tariffs and had a hostile policy towards China. Now Trump is picking up where Biden left off. The deep state drives foreign policy, not public opinion or presidents.

In sum, I don’t have much hope that some change in the midterm elections will change the direction of US politics very much. Even a change in the White House in four years is not likely to change US politics very much. Our problems are deep seated. Our institutional failings are deep. It’s going to take perhaps 20 years to work through this. This is not a Trump phenomenon by itself.

The One Big Beautiful Bill weakens the US in two ways. First, it adds to the already large budget deficits by making additional tax cuts that mainly benefit rich Americans and the corporate class. These tax cuts raise the budget deficit substantially and are partially offset by cuts in healthcare benefits for the poorest Americans. The bill, therefore, is dramatically unfair and unwise in its impacts on the deficit and inequality.

Second, the legislation phases out some of the modest earlier US efforts towards low-carbon energy and modernisation of infrastructure. So, the legislation marks a US retreat from leadership on 21st-century technologies. Basically, the Trump administration is a gift to China, with Trump’s policies saying to China, “China should lead the way on climate safety, low-carbon energy, electric vehicles and all of the green and digital technologies that the world needs, while the US will ignore the future”.

So, none of this is a big, beautiful bill. It is a mess that reflects the failures of the American political system.

Trump doesn’t have long-term relations with any individual other than his immediate family. Trump falls out with everybody. Remember Steve Bannon? He was once Trump’s closest adviser. That came to an end quickly. Almost all Trump advisers get fired at one point or another. Trump is not a person with long-term loyalties to anybody.

The individual feuds don’t mean very much. Breaking with Musk does not mean breaking with Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley put Trump back into the White House with enormous financial backing for Trump’s campaign. There are still tens of billions of dollars of government contracts going also to Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and other Big Tech operators.

The basic relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington remains intact because the Pentagon believes that it needs AI and can’t pursue AI on its own. While Trump has cut support for EVs, including Tesla, the Pentagon will continue to rely on Musk’s SpaceX for many years to come. And the same is true of the Pentagon’s reliance on Big Tech’s AI capacities generally.

The most fundamental trend in the world economy is the rapid rise of the non-Western economies, led by China and including Russia, India, Southeast Asia and, in future decades, Africa. The US is flailing about trying to maintain its dominance in a world in which the emerging economies are rising rapidly. The US will not be able to prevent the emergence of multipolarity, but it will try. Trump will try one thing or another, but without success or coherence. Multipolarity has already arrived.

The broad pattern of economic convergence – in which the emerging economies narrow or close the income gap with the high-income countries of the West – means that Western hegemony is over. This is leading to deep frustration, not only in the US political class but in Europe as well.

China vastly outproduces the United States in advanced industrial goods, such as EVs, solar power, wind power, advanced nuclear power, batteries, low-cost 5G and many other key technologies. China incorporates AI into advanced manufacturing processes more than the US.

Many European leaders feel that if they stick with the US against China and Russia, then maybe the Western hegemony will continue. This is delusional in my view, but nonetheless creates a lot of noise, friction and risks of conflict. None of it is a coherent strategy, however.

The US has no strategy to stay ahead of China. In fact, the US can’t succeed in that. We hear a lot of US sabre-rattling against China, Russia and the Brics countries. This is all dangerous. I think the heated rhetoric by itself can become a self-fulfilling prophecy of war. There are a lot of ignorant people in the US political leadership, and I worry very much about their naivety and delusions.

This, in my view, is essentially the origin of the “trade war”. The US decided during 2010-2015 that China is now a threat to US primacy. The US has tried a lot of things to block China’s continued rise, including: a military build-up in East Asia; export restrictions on hi-tech goods, especially advanced chips; economic sanctions on key Chinese companies; investment restrictions by US companies, and ownership restrictions on Chinese companies in the US; high tariffs against China’s exports; and others. But none of this stops China’s rise. China’s development results from hard work, ingenuity, high rates of saving, high rates of investment, very effective long-term planning and a very skilled, very entrepreneurial generation of business leaders, especially young business leaders. Those fundamental strengths continue despite America’s anti-China policies.

Trump’s policies are accelerating the move of top scientists to China. My overall view is that Trump is creating a lot of noise and some real dangers, but with no real strategy and no likelihood of success in holding back China’s rise. That’s a good thing. The rest of the world benefits from China’s economic success, including the US.

The deep state means the permanent security system of the United States and its partners in Europe and in East Asia, including Japan, Korea and other places where the US has military bases and other security institutions. It includes the military, the CIA, the military contractors and the politicians who serve the military-industrial complex.

Does such a deep state exist? Yes. The US has around 750 overseas military bases and many of them are in East Asia. The US has many major military contractors with hundreds of billions of dollars of annual business with the US government. The US fights overt and covert wars pretty much non-stop, some of which are proxy wars (in which the US arms and funds Ukraine to fight Russia), and sometimes open conflicts with heavy US involvement, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US has the extensive global networks of the CIA and other intelligence and covert institutions. All of this constitutes the deep state. Presidents come and go but the underlying foreign policy is consistent and set largely out of view of the public, and without any reference to public opinion.

When Obama replaced [US president George] Bush Jnr, and Trump replaced Obama, and Biden replaced Trump, and Trump replaced Biden, on the PR level there was alleged to be change, but in fact very little policy change occurred. For example, how much foreign policy change was there when Obama succeeded Bush Jnr? Very little. Obama launched many wars, just as Bush had done. Obama’s team actively participated in the coup in Ukraine in 2014 that set the path for the Ukraine war. Obama went to war against Libya. Obama gave the CIA the order to overthrow the Syrian government. All of this was a continuation of the policies of the Bush period.

Trump continued most of the same policies. Trump continued to build up the Ukraine military. The Trump administration dismissed the Minsk 2 agreement that could have prevented the escalation of the Ukraine war. There was not any major change between Obama and Trump.

When Biden came in, their claim again was that there would be a new foreign policy, but it didn’t happen. What did Biden do with China? He continued Trump’s tariffs. He continued Trump’s hardline rhetoric. Biden absurdly divided the world between the so-called democracies and autocracies, which was an incredibly naive approach, as I said from the beginning.

Biden escalated the Ukraine war. He rejected all attempts at peace negotiations, including the Istanbul process that could have ended the Ukraine war in 2022. When it came to the Middle East, Biden was complicit in Israel’s ongoing genocide. So, Biden did very little different from Bush Jnr, Obama and Trump before him.

Now, Trump has returned. What’s the real difference? Trump is different in style, in his unpredictability, nastiness, self-dealing and endless flip-flops. Yet, in terms of basic foreign policy, Trump is not very different from his predecessors.

This is the sense in which deep state means an ongoing consistency of the US security institutions that run American foreign policy. American foreign policy is not determined by public opinion, or Congress, or even the president in large part. Look instead to the CIA, the Pentagon and the other parts of the deep state.

The deep state also determines the politics of US vassal states. Many observers consider Japan to be a US-occupied country, with Japan’s foreign policy basically subservient to the US. One can say the same about many other countries. Where the US has military bases, the host countries tend to act like occupied countries, bending their own foreign policy to that of the US.

The US deep state is profoundly arrogant, thinking that it can have its way around the world. The US deep state thinks that it can dominate not only US allies, which is typically true, but also China, Russia, Iran, Brazil and others. When US arrogance becomes too strong, we face the danger of disaster. That’s what happened in Ukraine. The US thought that it could push Russia around to its will. It could not. The attempt to assert US power in Ukraine led to war.

US arrogance deeply worries me. Trump certainly is not a strategist. There’s no long-term plan. The US is playing poker, but not very well or wisely. It often bluffs. The whole approach can lead to war.

My main advice to China is look to the non-Western world for the strongest partnerships in trade, investment and diplomacy, at least for a while. The US-led alliance (US, Canada, Britain, EU, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand) is around 13 per cent of the world population. China is another 17 per cent. The remaining 70 per cent of the world – in Asia, Africa and Latin America – wants good and strong economic and diplomatic relations with China. That 70 per cent of the world population wants to modernise, and China provides the means for those countries to achieve rapid growth and modernisation. China is key to the global energy transition to zero-carbon energy, especially in the markets outside the US and Europe.

The emerging and developing economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America will be the markets for China’s rapid export growth in the years ahead. China will play a vital global role in these economies in building advanced green and digital economies, using Chinese cutting-edge technologies.

This will be a great win-win for the world because China will continue to grow rapidly while also empowering rapid growth throughout the emerging and developing nations. Sadly, in my view, the US will not play much of a role in that modernisation in the next generation. The US under Trump is withdrawing from green technologies, and from global responsibility.

The US cannot compete with China for the global renewable energy market. The US can’t compete with China for the global digital connectivity market. The US can’t compete with China in fast rail or low-carbon ocean shipping. In all these sectors, Trump is handing world trade and leadership over to China.

Regarding the US markets, China should certainly attempt to make a suitable trade deal with the US but China should not fret too much either way. The US is already a small part of China’s exports – perhaps around 10-12 per cent. That share of China’s exports will most likely decline further.

I hope that I’m wrong and that the US regains some sense and rejoins the global effort for green transformation and re-establishes normal trade with China. Yet, I don’t think that’s going to happen for many years, and I don’t think that China can, or should, base its policies on a return to normal trade with the US.

More specifically, I advocate expanding [China’s] Belt and Road Initiative. I advocate that China should deal with regional groups, including Asean, the African Union, the Arab League and the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC). China’s relations with these regional groups can be very strategic, as the regional groups can, and should, spur the interconnectivity of infrastructure among all the members of the group. For China, it will be easier to interact with regional plans rather than one country at a time.

In fact, no individual state in Asean, or the Middle East, or Latin America can modernise on its own without strong links with its neighbours through trade, finance and infrastructure. With Asean, for example, there really is the need for an Asean-wide energy system, not separate energy systems for Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia etc. These countries need an interconnected power grid, and China will play a key role in achieving an Asean-wide grid. Therefore, China-Asean diplomacy is strongly win-win.

I also believe that Hong Kong will have a huge and indeed unique leadership role in the global transformation. Hong Kong is vital for China’s growing links with Asean, the African Union, and beyond. The Greater Bay Area (GBA) combines Hong Kong’s world-class leadership in international finance, higher education and global management, with Shenzhen’s leadership in cutting-edge technologies, and the advanced manufacturing of Dongguan, Guangzhou and other GBA cities.

Put these strengths together, and the GBA becomes the beating heart of the global green transformation, in zero-carbon energy, robotics, AI-based manufacturing, digital connectivity and much more. All of this will help to fuel China’s – and Hong Kong’s – rapid growth for the next generation.

There are three scenarios.

One is that we create a truly multilateral world. For that, we need a United Nations 2.0. We need an upgraded international system in which all the major powers agree to invest in the international rule of law and peaceful resolution of conflicts. This will require an upgrade of the UN Security Council, and UN institutions more generally.

I’d love to see a major UN campus in China, to help lead the green and digital transformation worldwide. I’d love to see China and India working together closely at the UN, including towards India’s seat in the UN Security Council. I’d like China to support the African Union to play a much larger role in global governance. I’d like to see China, Japan and Korea end the geopolitical divisions and form a strong alliance in northeast Asia. Most importantly in this scenario, the US and Europe accept the rising role of China, India and the rest of the non-Western world.

A second scenario is that the Western world hunkers down. It goes protectionist and the US tries to divide the world into camps. This is perhaps the likely US strategy, but I think it is significantly worse for the US and the rest of the world than the first scenario. I think the US absolutely should abandon the idea of building competing camps.

The third scenario is that we don’t have a global system at all, but rather increasing chaos from climate change, wars and geopolitical conflicts. This dire scenario is a real possibility.

Any of these three trajectories is possible. We should be aiming for the first. The United States and Europe should take a deep breath, sigh and welcome the non-Western world into a shared global leadership. The major powers – the US, Europe, Russia, China, India – should agree to prevent confrontations.

The US should stop Nato enlargement and should stop providing armaments to Taiwan. Such actions are provocative and lead to great-power conflicts that threaten the safety and security of the whole world.

In short, the West should stop asking “Who is Number One?” and instead ask, “How can the whole world work together for the global common good?” In my experience, China, Russia and other nations would enthusiastically back such a global, cooperative effort that is based on mutual respect and mutual security.