Mistral点评

• [Sport] What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China
• MTR Lab backs AI start-up Ensonic in first mainland Chinese investment
• China’s income, job woes still weigh heavy as consumption campaign targets 5 key cites
• Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post wins 4 prizes at top Asian media awards
• In China, Elon Musk’s rising star raises hopes for US engagement
• Trump election victory cheers up cryptocurrency proponents in China
• China’s low-altitude economy is all the buzz, so where are the tangible results?
• China husband suffers 90%burns in gas blast, returns to save wife, dies later
• Zhipu, one of China’s ‘AI Tigers’, raises US$210 million for venture capital fund
• China, Australia sign avocado agreement at Shanghai expo amid warming ties
• China abductee reconnects with family after 34 years, is quickly estranged again over money
• Chinese scientists find most common human antibody could play big role in ageing
• China’s developers are borrowing more to sate thirst for capital after flood gates opened
• Why Pakistan is losing its war against anti-Chinese extremism
• Chinese navy to show off its warplanes for first time at Zhuhai air show
• China’s yuan falls sharply as Donald Trump declares US election win
• China’s issuance of US dollar bonds to bolster ties with Saudi Arabia
• In close US election, 1 thing is certain: more tariffs on China
• China to import Russian tech and expertise to boost low-altitude defences: state media
• Tidal surge in China, AI power race, ‘time traveller’ emperor: 7 science highlights
• Philippines unlikely to turn up heat in South China Sea dispute after US election: report
• China’s provinces push personnel to meet targets as end of year approaches
• China KOL adopts pig feed diet costing 40 US cents to save money, raising health concerns
• Can China’s leap into smart agriculture ensure its food security?

[Sport] What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dl0e4l7lzo

Reuters

Reuters

MTR Lab backs AI start-up Ensonic in first mainland Chinese investment

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3285480/mtr-lab-backs-ai-start-ensonic-first-mainland-chinese-investment?utm_source=rss_feed

MTR Lab, the venture capital arm of Hong Kong rail operator MTR Corp, has invested an undisclosed amount in Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company Ensonic, in an effort to help the firm expand overseas.

Beijing-based Ensonic is a seven-year-old start-up that produces AI-powered acoustic-detection systems used for equipment quality control and maintenance, the two firms said in a statement on Tuesday. This marks MTR Lab’s first investment in a mainland Chinese company.

The deal is “more than an investment” because it is also “a commitment to collaborate” and advance development of the firm’s AI-based acoustic detection technology, MTR Lab managing director Michael Chan Ting-bond said in the statement.

He said MTR Lab also hopes to “align with the national strategy” of developing “new quality productive forces” – a term introduced by President Xi Jinping in September last year to describe productivity gains driven by technological innovation.

Over the next three years, Ensonic plans to expand into the rail transport markets of Singapore and Japan, as well as the power grid sectors in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, founder and chief executive Dong Liang Ding said in a statement to the Post on Wednesday.

MTR Lab’s latest deal reflects how Chinese AI-related enterprises continue to attract new investment, despite Washington’s efforts to prevent Beijing from making advances in the technology.

Established in 2017, Ensonic previously raised six rounds of funding, according to records on Chinese corporate database Qichacha. Its investors include Vertex Ventures China, China Mobile Equity Investment and Lenovo Capital.

Ensonic’s domestic clients include State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, China Railway, China Mobile and China Coal Technology & Engineering Group. Its core team members have come from the Institute of Acoustics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, according to the start-up.

Its solutions, which identify potential faults or problems in equipment, use AI algorithms to analyse sound data, extract features and recognise patterns in real-time, according to the Ensonic website. These are already used in power grid transformers, lifts, escalators, hydropower plants, wind power equipment and data centres.

MTR Lab will aim to help Ensonic develop solutions that “meet international standards”, according to the firms’ statement.

As of June this year, MTR Lab had invested HK$250 million in technology funds and start-ups in Hong Kong and overseas, MTR Corp said in its 2024 interim report. The wholly-owned subsidiary of MTR Corp was set up in 2021 and launched in October 2022.

China’s income, job woes still weigh heavy as consumption campaign targets 5 key cites

https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3285419/chinas-income-job-woes-still-weigh-heavy-consumption-campaign-targets-5-key-cites?utm_source=rss_feed

Questions have been raised about how long growth momentum from a month-long consumption promotion campaign in five economically vital cities could last, with analysts pointing to income and job uncertainties that still haunt Chinese households.

A series of events to promote domestic and foreign brands started on Sunday, and will run throughout November in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing, according to the Ministry of Commerce, in an attempt to drive up spending on the tailwind of China’s Black Friday-alike shopping season.

The cities, which contributed 13 per cent of China’s gross domestic product last year, have reported some of the most notable tightening in spending in the past two years, despite being home to a large proportion of the middle class and wealthy population.

While retail sales in China grew by 3.3 per cent in the first three quarters of the year, the consumption gauge in Shanghai and Tianjin fell by over 3 per cent, while Beijing also saw a decline of 1.6 per cent.

Under the consumption campaign in November, local governments will distribute consumption vouchers, and encourage brands that have yet to open a store in an area to establish new stores.

In Beijing, local governments and enterprises will jointly issue over 10 billion yuan (US$1.4 billion) in subsidies, while nearly 50 international brands, in sectors including fashion and beauty, are set to open their first stores in the city.

“China’s main [concern] right now is insufficient consumer demand,” said Shen Jianguang, the chief economist for leading e-commerce platform JD.com, who believes that the campaign would offer a boost to the economy.

“The government is now placing equal, if not higher, importance on consumption as it does on investment,” Shen added, especially after the successes of a trade-in programme, which covers big-ticket items like home appliances and cars.

The government trade-in programme had been identified as the key driver for the rise in retail sales to a four-month high of 3.2 per cent in September.

And while consumer sentiment has improved, the key question is “whether that momentum can be sustained going forward”, said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist of Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

The government’s consumption campaign coincides with the annual Singles’ Day event – similar to Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the United States, where retailers offer massive discounts across a wide range of products.

But discounts and subsidies only shift the timing of spending forward, and such campaigns do not have a major impact in the long term, Ding added.

“To consistently boost consumption, [there is a need to] increase income and stabilise the housing market,” he said.

A tight job market and bleak outlook for income growth, as well as the beleaguered real estate sector, have eroded consumer confidence in recent years.

China has been strengthening policy support since late September to bolster the housing market, and Ding noted that there had been some early signs of its impact as home sales increased in October for the first time this year and new home prices also rose.

“Stabilising the real estate market is crucial to safeguarding the wealth of ordinary people,” Shen said, noting that income and wealth are the biggest variables affecting consumption.

He added that policy changes, such as providing rural households with minimum living allowances and increasing salaries for grass roots civil servants, would help support income.

“The market is very interested in whether there will be additional resources to help improve income, and more importantly, to improve the social safety net so there is less need to save,” Ding added.

---

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post wins 4 prizes at top Asian media awards

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3285464/hong-kongs-south-china-morning-post-wins-4-prizes-top-asian-media-awards?utm_source=rss_feed

The South China Morning Post’s infographics and photojournalism teams won four prizes on Wednesday at the World Association of News Publishers’ (Wan-Ifra) Asian Media Awards 2024 in Singapore.

“Uncovering Hong Kong’s secret land grab”, part of a series of exclusive reports exposing the extent of unauthorised structures at luxury estates, was awarded gold in the “best newspaper infographics” category.

Produced by designers Rocio Marquez and Davies C. Surya, Hong Kong news editor Jeffie Lam and senior reporter Edith Lin, and edited by production editor Kieran Cash, the piece used maps, video, illustrations, animation, photography and text to illustrate how the wealthy get hold of land.

In the “best healthcare infographics” category, “Hong Kong’s hottest summer ever” took gold for its deep dive into how the city felt the sweltering heat in 2023. It was produced by Marquez, Surya and associate creative director Marcelo Duhalde.

The Post also took home gongs for news and sports photography.

Senior photographer Dickson Lee’s shot of a street in Chai Wan that had become a raging torrent on September 8 last year amid Hong Kong’s longest-ever black rainstorm warning won gold for “best news photography”.

Lee also took silver in the “best sports photography” category. He won for an image of a heated fencing bout at the Asian Games in Hangzhou on September 24 last year.

“It’s heartening to see our award-winning journalism teams continue to gain international recognition during these rather tough times for the media industry,” Post editor-in-chief Tammy Tam said. “We remain committed to bringing you the top-quality journalism and unique perspective that the Post is renowned for.”

Wan-Ifra’s Asian Media Awards, in its 23rd edition, aims to reward high publishing standards in editorial content, multimedia, design and more.

These latest awards came just two weeks after the Post scooped three prizes for its audiovisual journalism at the 19th annual w3 Awards.

In China, Elon Musk’s rising star raises hopes for US engagement

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285468/china-elon-musks-rising-star-raises-hopes-us-engagement?utm_source=rss_feed

While the US presidential election was a competition between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, for many Chinese, tech guru Elon Musk was arguably the biggest winner.

Musk, the CEO of electric-vehicle maker Tesla, became one of Trump’s most vocal supporters and could be in the running to be a cabinet member in the next administration.

He is also a household name in China for the Shanghai Gigafactory, Tesla’s biggest factory in the world, and for investing heavily in the country during China’s economic downturn.

The prospect of Musk joining the US cabinet has raised hopes in China that there will be more engagement between Washington and Beijing, with tech billionaires like him playing the role of stabiliser in a strained relationship.

Musk has had the red carpet treatment during his China visits and was also among the first business executives from the US to visit Beijing last year after China lifted its Covid-19 travel curbs.

As the China-US tech war took off, he told then foreign minister Qin Gang that Tesla was opposed to decoupling – the separation of Chinese and Western supply chains.

At a meeting in Beijing in April, Premier Li Qiang went so far as to brand Tesla’s development in China “an example of success” in US-China cooperation.

For James Wu, the owner of a manufacturing company in the eastern province of Jiangsu, Musk’s prominence in US politics is hard to believe.

“I never imagined an entrepreneur could play such a big role in politics,” said Wu, who studied engineering in the US and has been following the election campaign.

“I was really shocked by Musk’s high profile in politics, including his offer of US$1 million a day to a registered voter in key swing states.”

Under the offer, people who signed a pro-US Constitution petition by Musk’s campaign group America PAC would be in the running for the money.

“I understand capital is always behind American politics. But this time, Musk is on the stage and vocal about what he wants – deregulation, a more efficient federal government and fair competition with the government on the distribution of satellite broadband, etc. Entrepreneurs around the world can only dream of such things,” Wu said.

Delivering his victory speech at a gathering in Florida’s Palm Beach on Wednesday, Trump spent considerable time paying tribute to Musk. “We have a new star ... a star is born – Elon!”

“[Elon] is a genius. We have to protect our geniuses, we don’t have many of them,” Trump said.

While he was absent from the event, Musk flooded his 203 million followers on X, previously known as Twitter, with posts supporting Trump.

Hours before Trump declared a victory, Musk was gloating that “the future is gonna be fantastic” and posted a picture of himself photoshopped into the Oval Office.

Under the Trump administration, Musk was expected to enjoy greater freedom to realise his tech and business ambitions in the US or elsewhere, making China less important in the supply chain, Wu said.

“However, the probability of engagement will be higher than that of a comprehensive decoupling,” he said. “Businessmen are always pragmatic.”

Chinese media has been keen to interpret Musk’s role in the election and in the future of the US.

In a Q&A session on Tuesday with the Greater Bay Area Review, a WeChat account run by the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Zheng Yongnian, a professor at the university’s Shenzhen campus, said Musk’s frontline support for a presidential candidate was unprecedented.

He also said the CEO was speaking on behalf of others.

“Musk not only speaks for himself. It’s not only for the development of his Starlink or brain computer interface programs,” Zheng said.

“Some people in Silicon Valley back his moves. They are what China calls the representatives of ‘new productive forces’.

“The move suggests they don’t think the current American political system will work for the future science and tech development.”

In another interview, Yin Zhiguang, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, described Musk and his fellow tech entrepreneurs involved in the election campaigns as an “interesting and emerging” force in American politics.

In a Q&A with Guancha.cn, a website by the Shanghai Chunqiu Institute for Development and Strategic Studies, Yin said many of these businesspeople were neoliberals “who do not believe in any country”.

“They believe in themselves and in a utopia constructed by a small group of elites who can work without the constraints imposed by countries,” he said.

Musk has more than 2 million followers on Weibo, a microblogging platform much like X. At least four hashtags concerning Musk, including the guessing game of his fate after the election, have been among the most popular topics in China’s heavily censored social media this week.

“It’s a victory for Musk,” one user wrote. “I was worried he might go to jail for the controversial giveaway. Now I’m curious what position he will get from Trump.”

Trump election victory cheers up cryptocurrency proponents in China

https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3285455/trump-election-victory-cheers-cryptocurrency-proponents-china?utm_source=rss_feed

Donald Trump’s triumph in the 2024 US presidential election has elated China’s cryptocurrency community, who expect a bright future for digital assets and related policies on the mainland and Hong Kong, as bitcoin prices hit a record high.

“Trump’s pro-crypto stance is expected not only to invigorate the US virtual-asset industry, but also to encourage Hong Kong to further relax its own virtual-asset policies in its quest to become a global Web3 hub,” said Livio Weng, chief executive of Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency trading platform HashKey Exchange.

“This shift could also positively influence regulatory attitudes toward virtual assets in mainland China,” he added.

That reflects the enthusiasm of many Mandarin-speaking crypto-focused users on Elon Musk’s X, as they posted their congratulations to Trump on the social-media platform formerly known as Twitter, while also extolling a new all-time high reached by bitcoin on Wednesday, with some expressing good days ahead for the industry.

At one point on Wednesday, bitcoin prices reached above US$75,000, having gained more than 66 per cent since the start of this year.

Once a cryptocurrency critic, Trump in July vowed during his campaign that the US would become the “bitcoin superpower of the world” under his administration and that he would fire “on day one” Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler, who ramped up scrutiny of the crypto sector.

Hong Kong’s three exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in bitcoin saw about HK$97.69 million (US$12.57 million) change hands across Hong Kong dollar, US dollar and yuan counters, representing the biggest trading volume in more than a month.

The Hong Kong government in late 2022 declared its ambition to turn the city into a virtual-asset hub, as the US cracked down on the cryptocurrency industry. Over the past two years, local authorities rolled out a slew of initiatives to boost the sector, while ensuring investor protections.

Still, the looming support for digital assets in the US has recently taken some wind out of Hong Kong’s virtual-hub sails. Spot cryptocurrency ETFs in the US have attracted more interest than similar products in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong regulators may speed up virtual-asset approvals in the face of increased competition from the US, HashKey’s Weng told the Post in August.

Meanwhile, more experts have called on Beijing to review its rigid ban on crypto businesses on the mainland. A professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in July said banning crypto mining in China was “very unwise”, as it drove related businesses to the US, contributing to US tax income.

China’s low-altitude economy is all the buzz, so where are the tangible results?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3285444/chinas-low-altitude-economy-all-buzz-so-where-are-tangible-results?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s industrial authority has convened its first seminar on strategies to develop the “low-altitude economy”, focusing on fostering relevant enterprises and infrastructure, as the sector currently lacks a mature business model.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) on Tuesday held its first meeting dedicated to the emerging low-altitude economy, deploying a series of funding projects to support its lofty ambitions in the sector that is seen as a new growth driver for a national economy struggling to find sources of momentum.

The low-altitude economy generally refers to activities within airspace below 1,000 metres (3,281 feet), including goods transported by drones on passenger flights and the use of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

Its short range is considered ideal for the intracity transport of goods and passengers, such as from city centres to airports or busy locations that may be affected by road traffic.

Although the MIIT has yet to release detailed development plans, it has called on local governments to expedite infrastructure deployment for the low-altitude economy and to foster companies’ collaboration across the industry chain.

Additionally, the plan includes enhancing integration with artificial intelligence and digital technologies, alongside urging universities to establish low-altitude industry-related programmes to cultivate talent for this emerging sector.

The low-altitude economy was highlighted in this year’s government work report as a new economic driver, aligning with the concept of “new quality productive forces” – a term coined by President Xi Jinping last year that envisions scientific research and technological upgrades of China’s sprawling industrial complex.

Following Xi’s call, governments across China are also intensively developing such flying vehicles.

On Tuesday, Shenzhen city authorities released a document seeking public opinions on funding companies to get airworthiness certification for their eVTOL aircraft and drones, opening short-distance air routes, and establishing infrastructure.

The city, home to major industry leaders such as DJI, EHang and Zerotech, plans to allocate up to 160 million yuan (US$22.4 million) this year to support local companies in advancing the low-altitude economy.

This funding will reach a maximum of 220 million yuan next year and 210 million yuan in 2026, according to the local government’s official website.

Shenzhen successfully tested an intercity air-taxi flight covering 150km (93 miles) to Zhuhai this year, shortening the original three-hour drive to 20 minutes. In addition, the world’s largest drone manufacturer has also set up 25 drone-delivery routes in the city.

However, an industry group said that, due to this industry's lack of experience, policymakers are still uncertain about the specific strategies needed to effectively develop a low-altitude economy.

Luo Jun, executive director of the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance, said during a meeting in early August that China has no mature business model for the low-altitude economy to learn from abroad, while enthusiastic companies are also confused about the economic model.

“It lacks typical application scenarios and has an unclear business model, lagging airspace management and flight-route planning, with incomplete infrastructure and supporting facilities,” he said, according to National Business Daily.

“As a result, while the low-altitude economy appears vibrant in many cities, it has yet to deliver tangible results.”

The alliance was established in August, comprising more than 100 companies, with the aim of finding application scenarios, development paths and a business model for the industry.

---

China husband suffers 90%burns in gas blast, returns to save wife, dies later

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/article/3285248/china-husband-suffers-90-cent-burns-gas-blast-returns-save-wife-dies-later?utm_source=rss_feed

After suffering severe burns to 92 per cent of his body in a kitchen explosion, a husband in China heroically returned to his burning home to save his wife only to tragically pass away later.

His act of profound love and bravery has deeply moved countless people on mainland social media.

The incident took place on October 10 in Luoyang, Henan province, northern China, when the man, surnamed Liu, was preparing breakfast with his wife and tried to use the stove.

A trending online video captured the moment that the kitchen was engulfed by a massive fireball from an explosion.

The blast tore off Liu’s clothes and violently propelled him out of the room.

“We never expected the gas to leak. When the explosion occurred, all the kitchen windows and doors were blown out, and my dad was the closest to the fire,” recounted Liu’s son, who had only worked for a year after graduating from university, in an interview with Elephant News.

However, despite suffering burns on 92 per cent of his body, Liu heroically returned to the flaming kitchen to save his wife.

His son revealed that after the accident, Liu was left critically ill in an intensive care unit and fought for his life as his organs began to fail.

He succumbed to his injuries seven days after being admitted to hospital.

“At that time, I did not know what to do. The doctors had administered painkillers. My dad was struggling to breathe, and after the burns, all his internal organs began to fail. He was in a lot of pain,” the son said tearfully.

He also revealed that his still recovering mother had asked about her husband as soon as she regained the ability to write. The first words she wrote were inquiries about her husband’s condition.

“I did not dare to tell my mother that my father had passed away. She asked me to check on him, so I just sat outside for a while and then went back to tell her that he was fine,” he said.

His mother is still receiving treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and Technology for burns covering 69 per cent of her body.

After spending 300,000 yuan (US$42,000) in medical expenses, the family, which includes the son and a younger daughter still in school, is now facing significant financial challenges.

Doctors have informed them that an additional 700,000 yuan is still needed.

The son is seeking donations through the media, and many netizens have expressed their willingness to help.

One online observer said: “The uncle’s resilience is admirable. He truly is a man of responsibility.”

“By risking his life to save his wife, this husband is a model of love,” another person added.

“I hope every kind-hearted person can contribute a little to help these two children, and I hope the mother can stay strong and survive. May their family overcome this ordeal,” another said.

In the first half of 2024, there were 181 gas accidents in China, a 38.44 percent decrease compared to the same period last year, according to the China Gas Association.

The incidents resulted in 158 injuries and 27 fatalities.

On October 14 in eastern Zhejiang province, despite suffering burns over 60 per cent of her body from a kitchen gas explosion, a mother heroically managed to carry her two-year-old to safety, touching the hearts of many online.

Zhipu, one of China’s ‘AI Tigers’, raises US$210 million for venture capital fund

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3285426/zhipu-one-chinas-ai-tigers-raises-us210-million-venture-capital-fund?utm_source=rss_feed

Zhipu AI, one of China’s top generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) start-ups, has announced the initial closing of its venture capital vehicle, which aims to invest in related start-ups to strengthen the company’s ecosystem, borrowing a page from ChatGPT owner OpenAI.

The Zhipu Ecosystem Fund, also known as the Z Fund, raised 1.5 billion yuan (US$211 million) from its parent and a group of state-backed and private entities, according to a statement published Friday on its official WeChat account.

They include the Beijing municipal government’s investment unit Shijingshan District Modern Innovation Industry Development Fund, and Fuzuo Capital, which is affiliated with Hangzhou Industrial Investment Group, the investment vehicle of eastern Zhejiang province’s capital city.

Private equity fund Yanbei Capital, and Guangdong Aofei Data Tech, a cloud computing infrastructure provider based in southern Guangdong province, are also among the limited partners.

Zhipu is building up its investment arsenal as competition heats up in China’s crowded GenAI market, which has seen the launch of more than a hundred large language models (LLMs) – the technology underpinning products like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

The Beijing-based company is known locally as one of China’s four AI Tigers – a group of unicorns considered the nation’s best chance in catching up to leading US start-ups, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, backed by Microsoft and Amazon.com, respectively. Zhipu develops foundational AI models that it says can improve efficiency in various traditional sectors.

Valued at around 20 billion yuan, Zhipu counts several state-backed vehicles, as well as Alibaba Group Holding, Tencent Holdings, Meituan, GL Ventures and Legend Capital as investors. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.

The Z Fund mirrors the OpenAI Startup Fund in the US, an entity launched in late 2021 to raise capital from outside partners to back early-stage start-ups. OpenAI and its founder and chief executive Sam Altman have no financial interest in the fund, which is investing US$175 million into AI start-ups spanning industries such as healthcare, law, education, energy and infrastructure.

Zhipu’s entrenched position in the LLM industry will help the yuan-denominated fund capture opportunities presented by promising early-stage start-ups, the Z Fund said in its statement. The fund said it will focus on both upstream and downstream innovations and applications along the supply chain.

Since March, the Z Fund has put money into at least 10 start-ups, according to public records on market research firm Itjuzi. They include SiliconFlow, an AI infrastructure provider, and Shengshu AI, one of the first Chinese firms to launch a video-generation tool built on GenAI. The two companies each received hundreds of millions of yuan in investments.

The fund’s portfolio covers a range of industries from healthcare, medical research and productivity tools to advanced manufacturing.

China, Australia sign avocado agreement at Shanghai expo amid warming ties

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3285418/china-australia-sign-avocado-agreement-shanghai-expo-amid-warming-ties?utm_source=rss_feed

Australia’s avocado trade association signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s trade body at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Wednesday, signifying an advancement for the superfood to obtain access to the Chinese market.

The agreement between Avocados Australia and the China Chamber of Commerce of Import & Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By-Products will seek to enhance cooperation and technological exchanges.

Avocados Australia chair Matthew Kleyn said Australia expected to enter into a more sophisticated agreement after “hopefully” Australian apples were allowed into the Chinese market.

“But we’re [at the expo in Shanghai] to communicate with the importers who came to approach us in Australia,” he added.

Amid the warming ties between both countries, Australian businesses have set up over 250 booths, including wine, lobster, avocado and healthcare products, at the China International Import Expo, which is viewed as an important window for international exporters to tap the vast Chinese market.

“For the planting industry, we hope to have more cooperation and exchanges,” said Yu Lu, vice-president at China’s trade body, who noted China’s past experience in using its large market for the exchange of technology.

China is Australia’s largest two-way trading partner, having accounted for 26 per cent of its global goods and services trade in 2023. Two-way trade with China increased by 9.3 per cent in 2023, totalling A$327.2 billion (US$216.5 billion).

Last year, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited the China International Import Expo, becoming the first top leader to visit China in seven years.

Avocados Australia has been conducting a series of lobbying work since 2013, aiming to gain access to the Chinese market with an eye on a health-conscious middle class that is driving the growing appetite for the fruit.

And in August, Avocados Australia met with agriculture representatives from the southwestern province of Yunnan to discuss planting technology cooperation, trade collaboration and investment plans.

Li Yan, an official with Yunnan’s agriculture and village body, welcomed the investment and technological exchanges with Australia that could strengthen the province’s avocado industry and boost incomes for Chinese farmers.

“By setting up standards for facilities and modernising farmlands, it will help both sides to explore a new win-win cooperation model,” he said in a statement at the end of August.

In September, Avocados Australia also won the Marketer of the Year Award at the Asia Fruit Awards presented by Asia Fruit Logistica, with CEO John Tyas saying it would help the trade body to “garner [the Australian government’s] support to negotiate for avocado market access to China”.

“When we have access to China, we will grow the market as we have done in other countries,” he added.

A decade ago, China’s overall avocado imports were negligible, but by 2018, they had grown to 40,000 tonnes, eventually reaching 66,000 tonnes in 2023.

South Africa made its first shipment of avocados to China in October, joining Peru – the top supplier of the fruit to China – Chile and Kenya.

---

China abductee reconnects with family after 34 years, is quickly estranged again over money

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3285241/china-abductee-reconnects-family-after-34-years-quickly-estranged-again-over-money?utm_source=rss_feed

A man in China who went through many hardships to reunite with his family 34 years after he was abducted has announced a tragic rupture with them one year after the reunion.

Yu Baobao, 37, said on his social media account, which has 326,000 followers, that he had severed ties with his birth family because of money.

Yu lived using the name Li Qiang for 34 years, until he found his birth family and discovered his real name in September last year.

He was abducted at his grandparents’ home in southwestern China’s Sichuan province at the age of two.

A rich family in central China’s Henan province bought him from the human traffickers, but did not treat him well and often beat him.

They told him he was adopted when he was five, and sent him away to another family when he was 11.

Yu left his new adoptive home and became a vagabond. After he turned 19, he went to Shanghai and Beijing to work, and settled as a delivery rider in the country’s capital.

Yu said he had not stopped looking for his birth family for one day. When the police informed him that his DNA matched that of his mother, he said he only wanted to “have a good nap on mum’s knees”.

Yu’s deep love moved many, who supported him to do e-commerce live streaming online to make up for his difficult days.

Required by his divorced birth parents to help out his two younger brothers, who were both in debt, Yu decided to run the online sales business together, and gave them a total of 60 per cent of their total earnings under his parents’ persuasion.

Many people who were abducted as children and found their home after growing up engaged in e-commerce live streaming to financially support their new life.

Some companies, like Zhejiang-based apparel manufacturer Langsha Group, specially hired these families to promote their brand.

Their first live streaming session turned out to be a huge success, generating 470,000-yuan (US$66,000) in income.

Yu showed proof of bank transfers that he had properly given the right amount of money to his brothers, but he complained that he did not receive his share of earnings.

Also, his brothers had been speaking rudely to him, telling Yu they were doing him a “favour” accepting him into their family.

One of his brothers even called him by his adoptive name, and threatened to beat him up following another quarrel over the money.

Yu said he wanted to save some money to find and bring the human traffickers, who had brought misery to his life, to justice.

Yu said he felt truly disappointed realising his mother was biased towards her other two sons, and continued asking him to give them more money.

Yu said his father blocked one of his social media accounts in May, two days before he announced to have cut off the ties with his family on September 30, Yu blocked one of his mother’s online accounts.

Yu told Chinese newspaper Dahe Daily that he still missed his mother, but they would never reconcile.

“They separated over three decades ago because of money. Now they separated again because of money. Money is the root of all evil,” one online observer said.

Chinese scientists find most common human antibody could play big role in ageing

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3285324/chinese-scientists-find-most-common-human-antibody-could-play-big-role-ageing?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese-led study found that Immunoglobulin G (IgG), the most prevalent antibody in humans and crucial for immune defence, may also play a big role in the ageing process.

Researchers found that excessive build-up of the antibody can induce ageing in cells, intensify chronic inflammation and accelerate tissue ageing.

“Our study sheds light on the dual role of IgG in the context of ageing: while essential for immune protection in and of itself, its excessive accumulation may lead to cellular senescence and chronic inflammation, both of which are characteristic features of ageing,” they said in a new paper.

The team, which includes researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, BGI Research, Capital Medical University in Beijing, several hospitals around China, and Altos Labs San Diego Institute of Science in the US, published their findings in the peer-reviewed journal Cell on Monday.

When our body encounters pathogens, it produces protective proteins known as immunoglobulins, or antibodies, to help fight them. IgG, the most abundant antibody in the human circulatory system, is capable of neutralising toxins, viruses and bacteria.

Co-corresponding author Gu Ying, deputy director of genome research organisation BGI-Research, said that in the ageing process, IgG has been found to be a sign of chronic inflammation.

“In an acute infection, antibodies attach to foreign substances and remove them from your body. However, in a long-term ageing process, rising IgG levels suggest chronic inflammation, indicating a decline in organ function and ageing,” she said.

Gu said the findings lay the foundation for new interventions targeting IgG accumulation, such as the clearance of antibody-producing cells, that can be studied as anti-ageing therapeutics.

“The discovery of IgG as a biomarker points to a potential intervention target,” she said. “In the future, we might be able to reduce IgG levels related to ageing and inflammation in humans.”

Study co-author Sun Yuzhe, a researcher at BGI-Research, said the findings could also help develop a tool to assess biological age by measuring IgG levels in the population.

“Because we performed individual analysis on different organs in the study, the future assessment would be able to provide us with ‘organ ages’ for different parts of our body,” he said.

Sun said with a better understanding of the ageing process of specific organs, people could make better decisions about their health.

“As scientists studying ageing, we hope people can enhance their health by changing their habits, improving their diet and exercising regularly,” he said.

In their study, the scientists examined tissue from the brains, spinal cords, hearts, lungs, livers, small intestines, spleens, lymph nodes and testicles of mice at different life stages. They also analysed human samples obtained during surgery and from corpses.

They found that “IgG levels increase with age in tissues of both sexes in mice, and crucially, in human tissues as well”, according to the paper.

They added that elevated IgG levels can cause macrophages – white blood cells that clear out foreign materials – and brain cells that regulate brain development to go into a pro-inflammatory, ageing state.

China’s developers are borrowing more to sate thirst for capital after flood gates opened

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3285383/chinas-developers-are-borrowing-more-sate-thirst-capital-after-flood-gates-opened?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s property developers are borrowing more to finance their cash-starved operations, after the green light by the financial authorities and central bank opened the funding flood gate, in another sign of improving confidence in the beleaguered industry.

Bond financing in the property sector increased for the second month in October, rising 3.2 per cent from last year to 29 billion yuan (US$3.92 billion), according to data released on Tuesday by the China Index Academy.

The growth was partially due to last year’s low base, the research institute said, as October’s results was 32.4 per cent lower than the previous month. From January through October, bond financing in the property sector totalled 442 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6 per cent from the same period last year.

“The favourable policy environment has positively impacted financing for developers overall,” said Yan Yuejin, vice-president of the Shanghai-based E-House China Real Estate Research Institute. “This year’s measures to reduce funding costs, including reserve requirement cuts and initiatives encouraging banks to support developers, have benefited corporate financing to some extent.”

The latest data followed a series of stimulus measures unleashed by Beijing since late September to rescue the property sector and boost investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. These policies included cuts to down payments, mortgages, as well as an expanded white list qualifying developers for additional borrowing.

China’s legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, is holding a five-day session this week and is expected to discuss a larger fiscal package to further stimulate the economy.

All the bonds issued in October were by state-backed home builders, owing to their better liquidity conditions and lower risks of default, while privately-owned developers issued none, according to the report.

China Resources Land, Poly Development and China Communications Construction Company were among the most active state-backed developers to issue debentures, or unsecured loans. These three companies issued 8 billion yuan in debentures between them, driving the loans growth for the month.

The average interest rate for developer bond financing stood at 2.98 per cent, down 0.51 percentage point from last year and 0.08 percentage point from September.

In another sign of improving sentiments, sales of new homes by the country’s top 100 home builders rose 7.1 per cent year in October from last year, reaching 435.5 billion yuan. The figure also reflected a 73 per cent surge from September, according to data published last week by the China Real Estate Information Corporation.

However, the industry is still far from being out of the woods. New home prices dropped 6.1 per cent across 70 major cities in September from a year earlier – the steepest decline since May 2015. Meanwhile, land purchases by the nation’s top 100 home builders fell 38.7 per cent to 619.8 billion yuan from January through October, as cash-strapped developers remain hesitant to launch new projects.

Why Pakistan is losing its war against anti-Chinese extremism

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3285256/why-pakistan-losing-its-war-against-anti-chinese-extremism?utm_source=rss_feed

When a Pakistani think tank hosted a seminar last month, it is likely that no one expected Chinese ambassador Jiang Zaidong to call on Islamabad to improve the security of Chinese nationals in the country, especially at an event marking the People’s Republic of China’s 75th anniversary.

Jiang’s comments were in stark contrast to the typical messaging from Chinese leaders and officials, who have long described the bilateral relationship as one between “iron brothers”. Jiang said it was “unacceptable” that Chinese nationals had been attacked twice in six months. On October 6, two Chinese citizens had been killed in a terrorist attack outside Jinnah International Airport in Karachi.

The dissatisfaction expressed by Jiang was met with surprise by Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch. The ambassador’s remarks are a part of a recent departure from China’s usual practice of privately relaying its concerns to Pakistan. After all, Pakistan is not just a neighbour but a strategic partner and part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. So why has China now chosen to adopt a more vocal stance?

Beijing’s concerns stem from a series of attacks on Chinese nationals by separatist militants in Balochistan and religious extremist group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Chinese teachers and engineers were killed in these attacks.

For its part, in 2016, Pakistan deployed 15,000 troops for the security of people working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Two days before the attack outside the airport, it was reported that Pakistan had approved the allocation of 45 billion Pakistani rupees (US$161.69 million) to the military to strengthen security for Chinese nationals. The government of Punjab province has decided to buy more bombproof vehicles for Chinese workers.

Despite these measures, China has asked Pakistan to follow up with concrete action against terrorist groups. As Islamabad grapples with a serious threat to bilateral collaboration, can it find a sustainable solution?

Terror-related incidents had been declining since around 2013, but there has been an uptick in recent years, despite Pakistani security forces stepping up counterterrorism operations. There are several reasons Islamabad’s efforts have been unsuccessful.

One obvious reason is the political crisis engulfing Pakistan. The government has focused a lot of its attention on silencing dissent from the opposition as well as social movements such as the Pashtun Protection Movement (PTM) and the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), which have been protesting against militant as well as military excesses, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. The government banned the PTM, and BYC’s leadership is in the crosshairs of the Pakistani authorities. This only fuels discontent, providing fertile ground for militants, and pre-empts political solutions.

The government’s lack of success in reining in the threat of violent extremism is also exacerbated by Islamabad’s reliance on kinetic operations. Since the events of September 11, Pakistan has carried out multiple counterterror campaigns, including Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 and Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad in 2017.

In June, the authorities announced another counterterrorism operation and approved 60 billion Pakistani rupees for it. The reluctance to engage in a broader political approach has predisposed the authorities in Islamabad to rely on violence.

The government’s decision to launch another national anti-militant operation was met with criticism from opposition political parties as well as civil society groups. Such campaigns have tended to involve mass displacement of local populations. The government clarified that the new operation would be a continuation of existing intelligence-based operations, which then raised questions about its efficacy.

Pakistan’s struggle with militancy is not only of its own doing but also the result of external factors. Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, the TTP has found a new safe haven and an ideological patron in the neighbouring country. It has given the TTP a chance to regroup and launch attacks on Pakistan from across the border.

However, that does not absolve Islamabad of its responsibility. The government has had unfruitful negotiations with the TTP; the lack of substantive reintegration efforts has led to the group’s resurgence.

Islamabad has also accused its eastern neighbour India of aiding and abetting militant groups in Balochistan, allegations New Delhi denies. In 2016, Islamabad apprehended Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav and later convicted him for his alleged role in aiding terrorists in Balochistan. Some analysts have argued that New Delhi has adopted a “grey zone” approach of using proxies such as militant groups in Pakistan to punish Islamabad for its own alleged use of non-state actors against India.

As these terror groups threaten the security of both Pakistanis and Chinese nationals living in Pakistan, Islamabad and Beijing should work together to overcome this challenge.

After the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, China has only increased its diplomatic and economic outreach to Kabul. China’s new-found leverage allows it to host trilateral talks with Pakistan and Afghanistan, which could be used to rein in the threat from the TTP. Similarly, a recent thaw in India-China relations enables Beijing and Islamabad to engage New Delhi on the issue of Baloch militancy.

While China has generally adopted a hands-off approach to Pakistan’s internal affairs, it can counsel Islamabad on complementing its military strategy with a peace plan to address the threat posed by the TTP. China can especially help with peace talks that pave a holistic path towards disarming, demobilising and rehabilitating former militants.

A similar approach to Balochistan could be replicated by involving political actors, activists and militants in a broader political and economic dialogue centred around local autonomy and respect for human rights.

For all this to happen, Islamabad must get its act together. If not, Beijing’s displeasure will only become more vocal.

Chinese navy to show off its warplanes for first time at Zhuhai air show

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3285421/chinese-navy-show-its-warplanes-first-time-zhuhai-air-show?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese navy warplanes will make their first appearance at the country’s largest air show next week, an event that will also be the first to feature three stealth fighters – two from the host country along with one from Russia.

A J-15T, a variant of the country’s first carrier-based fighter J-15, landed in Zhuhai on Wednesday, making it the first time a PLA Navy jet goes on display at the event in the southern province of Guangdong, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

The J-15 is a 4.5-generation fighter jet that was based on the Soviet Su-33 and the planes are currently based on the country’s Liaoning and Shandong carriers.

The J-15T has been designed to be launched with a catapult – suggesting it may be deployed on the country’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian.

Unlike its two predecessors, which use ski-jump take-off ramps, the Fujian has an advanced electromagnetic catapult launch system – technology that allows planes to be launched more frequently.

Pictures of what analysts believe is the J-15T first appeared on social media in 2016 and the planes have reportedly been undergoing ground-based test flights.

Russia’s most advanced fighter, the Sukhoi Su-57, will also take part in the Zhuhai air show, alongside two Chinese counterparts, including the country’s newest stealth fighter the J-35.

The event, which runs from November 12 to 17, will also feature displays by China’s first stealth fighter, the J-20, along with six other types of aircraft.

“For the first time, new equipment such as the medium-weight, stealth multi-role fighter J-35A, the HQ-19 surface-to-air missile and a new type of reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicle will be on display,” PLA Air Force spokesman Niu Wenbo told CCTV on Tuesday.

It means China will become the second country to have two types of stealth fighter after the United States, which has the F-22 and F-35.

“It is likely that no third country will be able to have two for quite some time to come, so the significance of this cannot be overstated,” military analyst Li Li said.

“The unveiling of this type of fighter aircraft is a major innovation in the aviation equipment of the Chinese air force and a major step forward in the current national defence and international competition.”

The multi-role Su-57, which entered service in 2019, is Russia’s only stealth fighter, and has featured in the war with Ukraine. One of the jets was reportedly destroyed by a Ukrainian drone in June.

One of the fifth-generation Russian stealth fighters will put on an aerial display while another will be on show on the ground, according to Chinese state media.

The Russian Knights, the country’s aerobatics team, will also feature at the event, the latest indicator of the close military ties between the two countries.

The Russian authorities are trying to sell the Su-57 on the international market, and its presence at the show, also known as the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, is probably an effort to promote it to potential buyers.

However, photos of the fighter taken by Chinese air enthusiasts have prompted criticisms on social media about its construction quality.

Some also questioned its stealth capabilities by noting that the fighter which will be performing at the show was not fitted with a Luneburg lens – an item of equipment they said would normally be used to reduce the risk of accidents by making it more visible to radars and conceal its radar reflective features in a non-combat situation.

The Chinese HQ-19, which will also feature at the event, is designed to counter medium-range ballistic missiles and has been compared to the US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system.

According to a Pentagon report on Chinese military development published last year, the Chinese missile has undergone tests to verify its capability against 3,000km-class ballistic missiles.

China’s yuan falls sharply as Donald Trump declares US election win

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3285423/chinas-yuan-falls-sharply-donald-trump-declares-us-election-win?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s yuan recorded a sharp fall amid rising uncertainty as Republican candidate Donald Trump declared victory in the US presidential election.

The offshore yuan on Wednesday had at one stage fallen by more than 900 basis points against the US dollar, dropping below the 7.19 mark, before regaining some ground.

International investor uncertainty is likely to result in a stronger US dollar, at least in the short term, said Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The inflationary impact of Trump’s proposed trade tariffs would also complicate the outlook for US monetary easing, particularly if headline consumer prices jumped back up to above 3 per cent, which is very likely should Trump deliver on his policy threats, Marro added.

“The stronger-for-longer US dollar, alongside higher-for-longer US interest rates, could preserve the wide interest rate differential between the US and China, particularly as Chinese monetary settings remain accommodative,” he said.

“Alongside geopolitical risks, not least the spectre of an escalation in US-China trade tensions, these factors will preserve depreciatory pressure on the yuan.”

The People’s Bank of China, however, would likely step in to control the extent of any depreciation to prevent a downward spiral that would further erode the already weak confidence in China’s economy, said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered.

The exchange rate between the US dollar and yuan is likely to become one of the bargaining chips in negotiations between China and the US on tariffs, Ding said.

Trump has complained that the US dollar is overvalued, which has in turn bruised US export competitiveness, pushed up the trade deficit and hurt its manufacturing sector and jobs.

“Trump hopes that the US dollar will not be too strong and affect its external competitiveness, while China does not want the yuan to be too weak,” Ding added.

“The two sides may be able to find an intersection.”

China’s issuance of US dollar bonds to bolster ties with Saudi Arabia

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3285363/chinas-issuance-us-dollar-bonds-bolster-ties-saudi-arabia?utm_source=rss_feed

The planned issuance of US dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia by China’s Ministry of Finance is a “practical” move by Beijing to establish fundraising channels offshore and strengthen bilateral ties with a strategic partner, analysts said.

The ministry will sell up to US$2 billion of notes in Riyadh next week, according to a statement posted on its website on Monday.

“China doesn’t need to issue offshore bonds to raise money because the cost of issuing onshore bonds is lower,” said Raymond Yeung, the chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank.

“This is a practical move to increase offshore bonds’ liquidity and provide regular supply to global investors related to the Belt and Road Initiative.”

The last time the Ministry of Finance issued US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds was in 2021, when it issued US$4 billion worth in Hong Kong.

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said that Beijing’s choice of Riyadh reflects China’s efforts to build up the bilateral relationship and dislodge the US as Saudi Arabia’s key geopolitical partner.

“Saudi has been trying to build up its capital markets,” he said. “The fact that it’s a dollar bond is a reminder that the two of them are a long way from ditching the dollar.”

Bob Chen, director at Shenzhen-based venture capital Mangrove Capital, said that the ministry’s move is “mostly symbolic” as the two countries establish closer ties.

“Saudi is trying to attract Chinese investment in its green energy and tech exports,” he said. “And China is also desperate for foreign direct investment, [with] Saudi a good source.”

China issued €2 billion of notes in Paris in September in its first euro-denominated bond sale in three years.

William Liu, Asia managing partner at Linklater, which was the legal adviser to the Ministry of Finance for its bond sale in Paris, said it enhanced China’s global influence in capital markets.

In close US election, 1 thing is certain: more tariffs on China

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3285370/after-us-election-two-things-appear-certain-death-and-china-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed

No matter who emerges the victor after this week’s US presidential election, Vietnam-based consultant Kyle Freeman doubts demand for his services has anywhere to go but up.

Whether former president Donald Trump or current Vice-President Kamala Harris enter the White House in January, businesses are almost certain to continue exploring moves from China to destinations like Freeman’s current base of operations.

“There is an expectation that tariffs on China will continue under either potential administration,” said Freeman, a partner at business advisory firm Dezan Shira & Associates. “However, the [two candidates’] approach to trade policies are very different. There is a greater degree of uncertainty [for businesses] in this election than in 2020.”

For now, his clients are taking a wait-and-see approach.

“Clients are holding off on new investment until the election brings a little bit more clarity on trade policy,” Freeman said. He moved from China to Ho Chi Minh City two years ago, as his American and European clients began to adopt a “China plus one” strategy of diversification in response to US-led tariffs and heightened geopolitical tensions.

There is no sign either candidate will back down on the tariff question, as keeping China’s economic rise in check has become the rare issue in American politics to receive bipartisan support. Most view heavier taxes on imports as a means to protect US industrial capacity from what is commonly termed “unfair” foreign competition.

But with a new administration set to take office no matter the election outcome, the trade positions of the world’s two largest economies are still expected to undergo major transformations as the countries’ ongoing dispute enters a new stage.

Escalation or continuation?

Trump referred to “tariff” as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” as he campaigned for re-election as the Republican Party nominee, having lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden. Trump – who initiated the trade war in his first term – said he will escalate current tariffs to 60 per cent on all Chinese imports, and add a 10 or 20 per cent blanket tariff on all foreign goods entering the US.

Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, has adopted a different tone, saying tariffs should not be applied universally and criticising Trump’s proposal as a “sales tax on the American people”. While she has said little about her plans for China tariffs, observers predicted she will maintain the current administration’s stance while perhaps selectively raising tariffs on certain products.

“It is clear that Trump is campaigning on a protectionist platform, and this seems to be a larger emphasis than his previous election campaigns, with more extreme proposals,” said David Steinberg, associate professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of International Studies. He added that domestic sentiment would likely drive Harris to continue Biden’s policies.

“There are serious political risks to initiating new trade agreements or lowering tariffs on Chinese imports. It is unlikely a Harris administration would want to use their political capital to achieve these aims,” Steinberg said, “meaning there would not be substantial shifts in tariff rates on imports from China or elsewhere.”

While there was some discussion among academic and policy circles before Biden took office over whether he would eliminate tariffs imposed during Trump’s term, that speculation is nowhere to be found in the run-up to this year’s election – on either the Chinese or American side of the equation.

Not only has the Biden administration maintained most Trump-era tariffs, new increases were introduced for specific Chinese imports, including electric vehicles (EVs) and solar cells. This was considered a more focused approach compared to the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods – nearly half of all Chinese imports – announced in 2018.

“A potential Harris administration is likely to continue a more targeted approach in levying tariffs on specific products,” said Yeling Tan, a professor of public policy at the University of Oxford.

Inu Manak, a fellow for trade policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, added Harris’ choices for top officials would also be critical in determining how much of the current administration’s approach would be maintained.

“It is hard to tell until we can get a better understanding of who [Harris] would bring on board her economic team,” Manak added.

“If Katherine Tai stays, I would expect no progress on the trade front,” she said, referring to the current United States Trade Representative (USTR).

China hits back

When asked to comment on Trump and Harris’ tariff stances, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning was matter-of-fact at a press briefing in September: “We do not comment on the US election as it is a domestic issue, but we are against making use of China in the election.”

But whether it is election season or not, China has vowed to retaliate against what it considers “bullying” in the form of tariffs. In May, foreign minister Wang Yi said the tariff onslaught showed “some people” in the US may be “losing their minds.”

“China’s response depends on what kind of trade restrictions the US puts on it,” said Wang Yuesheng, director of the Institute of International Economic Research at Peking University. He noted China’s scale of retaliation has generally been reciprocal.

Following separate rounds of tariffs from the US and European Union on its EVs, China countered with measures targeting major sectors in the two regions. Higher tariffs are being considered for large internal combustion engine vehicles, which are mainly imported from countries like Germany, France and the US.

Beijing has already levied tariffs on brandy from the EU, and an anti-dumping investigation is under way into European and American imports of polyoxymethylene copolymer, an important chemical in automotive engineering.

In comparison, Beijing responded to Trump’s omnibus tariffs in 2018 by similarly raising import taxes on US$60 billion of US goods across a broad range of sectors, from agriculture to chemical components. That action, similar to the initial round of duties from the US, covered about half of all imports.

Though he said he expected China to continue its reciprocal responses to any hypothetical US tariffs, Wang of Peking University said an increase would be a concern, as foreign trade takes on greater importance for the export-heavy country at a weak moment in its economic cycle.

“China’s retaliation may simply lead to a decrease in US-China trade, which falls right in line with the US’ intentions to diversify the supply chain and shift trade to other countries,” he said. “But regardless of their effectiveness, there will definitely be a response. This is certain.”

Though there was widespread agreement that Beijing’s response to tariffs would continue to be proportional, analysts said further rounds of action would have new implications – especially if Trump were to raise the current tariff levels to 60 per cent.

“The reality is that these new tariffs would be disastrous for the US economy,” said Jack Zhang, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Kansas. “Global supply chains may be able to absorb 20 per cent tariffs, but would fragment at 60 per cent. This would increase consumer prices, crush US wholesalers and retailers, and put pressure on US manufacturers that rely on components from China.”

Steinberg said tariffs raised to that level means “trade flows between the two countries would likely fall substantially, contributing to a meaningful decoupling.”

Chain reaction

A further decoupling in bilateral relations for the world’s two largest economies would also have a direct impact on its trade partners, as evidenced from the first six years of the conflict.

While Southeast Asian countries have become popular destinations for businesses that want to relocate, China is still very much a crucial link in supply chains.

Mei Yuan, assistant professor of economics at Singapore Management University, said he expects Southeast Asia to be “more integrated” with the Chinese economy.

“If a country is a substitute for China, then that country would benefit from the trade conflict. But because today’s global supply chains are very integrated, I don’t think any country is a complete substitute. For many products, you have to import parts and components or raw materials from China first, then assemble it, before exporting to the US or Europe.”

Washington has been vigilant to close any perceived loopholes in its regulations limiting trade with China. Tai, the USTR, said in May her office is watching for attempts by Chinese companies to export cars to the US via Mexico, and are considering new ways to block circumvention.

In July, the Biden administration launched a 10 per cent tax on aluminium smelted in China and a 25 per cent tax on steel not melted or poured in Mexico, a move intended to target firms from China and other countries that are routing shipments through Mexico to evade tariffs.

In his campaign, Trump has called for a 200 per cent tariff on cars of Chinese make imported from Mexico. Harris has not made her stance clear on tariffs aimed at third-country shipments.

“We can expect such tariff actions on third countries to continue into the future,” said Tan of Oxford, also a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Therefore, global supply chains will continue to experience uncertainty.”

Manak, the Council of Foreign Relations researcher, shared this view. Any US administration, she said, can be expected to increase its scrutiny of the issue.

“But for any efforts to succeed, the United States must also provide some sort of incentive for its trading partners to diversify,” Manak said.

Businesses are already well aware of the inherent risk in a costly relocation to a country that may eventually receive similar treatment to China.

Freeman, the Ho Chi Minh-based adviser, said there has been a surge in interest from his clients on the investment potential of various jurisdictions, with Mexico and Vietnam appearing likely to receive more attention from Washington.

“These countries have a profile, and a growing trade deficit with the US as their exports have risen, but have also seen imports and investment from China rise,” Freeman said.

“Countries like India – where exports have risen, but imports from China have not because of particular policy – may be of less risk.”

Mexico and Vietnam have joined the ranks of countries or regions with the largest trade surplus vis-a-vis the US, alongside China and the EU.

The US imported over US$118 billion in goods from Vietnam last year, more than double the figure from 2018 according to the United Nations COMTRADE database.

Meanwhile, one-third of Vietnam’s total imports now come from China, with the inflows of Chinese goods last year almost doubling compared to 2018 – a nearly identical shift.

Mexico, which surpassed China last year as the largest exporter to the US, also saw its imports from China nearly double in the same period.

Any future change in trade policy is likely to carry a greater ripple effect on the global supply chain, as there has already been a demonstrable influence on their allies and partners, said Peking University’s Wang.

“The European Union [EU] and other developed countries tend to follow US policies to a certain extent.”

After the Biden administration levied new tariffs on Chinese EVs, the EU followed suit with duties as high as 45 per cent in a heated vote by its members last month. Canada has also imposed a tariff of 100 per cent on Chinese EVs, and 25 per cent on Chinese steel and aluminium.

Into the unknown

He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Centre for China and Globalization think tank, said Beijing will need to “aggressively stop” tariffs from being raised to the levels Trump has proposed. He suggested unofficial lobbying through those US-based multinational corporations with heavy China exposure.

“[The escalated tariffs] could be a very big hit. We need to be prepared for that,” he said.

“In recent years, these [US] companies have played a major role in stabilising tense trade relations between China and the US. They will continue to do so in the future.”

Trade groups like the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Retail Federation have campaigned against higher tariffs on Chinese goods, arguing the crackdown could hurt small businesses and discourage investments by US corporations.

US importers and consumers have paid US$221.11 billion in extra costs as a result of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since 2018, said Tiffany Smith, vice-president of the Washington-based National Foreign Trade Council. The estimate came in response to announcements of further tariff hikes in September.

The Biden administration – including Harris – should focus on working with trade partners to eliminate underlying structural issues in China, she said, “rather than unilaterally adding new tariffs and continuing to drive up costs for consumers.”

Zhang of the University of Kansas said while US policymakers see tariffs as a means to restore industrial capacity, research has proven it hurts both countries. When escalated to global tariff hikes, he said, it is “a race to the bottom that will break down the rules-based system of international trade”.

“Using tariffs to enhance industrial capacity is not a new phenomenon,” Zhang said. “The question is whether US policymakers can exercise enough restraint to preserve the World Trade Organization system or if we will revert to a prolonged period of protectionism.”

But in the long run, both He and Wang said it would be important for the Chinese government to continue to develop its domestic business environment to hedge against an increasingly hostile atmosphere for trade.

“The most important thing now is for the government to reduce direct trade barriers and tariffs, creating a stable and fair environment for Chinese enterprises and foreign companies operating in China,” He said.

Wang concurred. “Foreign capitalists and large business owners will, of course, consider their government’s intentions, but they will not completely follow government directives,” he said.

“As long as China’s market and investment environment is favourable and they can make profits in China, they will return.”

China to import Russian tech and expertise to boost low-altitude defences: state media

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3285314/china-import-russian-tech-and-expertise-boost-low-altitude-defences-state-media?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese security company and a Russian university have had “extensive interactions” over importing Russian aviation technology, including low-altitude counter-drone technology, according to Chinese state media.

A Chinese company specialising in emergency technology and security services – Guangxi Xinhang Shengjie Emergency Industrial Park Management Company signed a deal on Monday with Russia’s Ufa State Aviation Technical University, a leading centre for aviation engineering, to bring in low-altitude drone defence technology, China News Service reported on Tuesday.

“China and Russia held extensive interactions on topics such as bringing in Russian aviation technology and low-altitude drone defence technology,” the report said. The signing took place in Wuzhou in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in southern China.

Under the deal, the Russian university will send experts to China to provide long-term support in areas such as technology, talent training and teaching, according to the report.

The Chinese side also planned to boost its low-altitude equipment manufacturing operations by adapting Russian heavy-lift helicopters and drone technology, it said.

The Chinese company plans to make drones “designed for long-range flights, heavy loads and high safety standards” that are suited to “emergency rescue, logistics delivery, industrial and agricultural work and security patrols”, with an eye to domestic and international markets, according to the report.

It comes as China and Russia have stepped up military cooperation in recent years amid pressure from the United States and its allies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month for their third face-to-face meeting this year, pledging to support a “fair world order” amid chaotic times.

In a meeting in July, they pledged to continue strengthening bilateral ties in the face of Western sanctions, particularly in the areas of military and defence.

The US and its allies have increasingly voiced concern over their closer military ties and accused Beijing of supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, a claim Beijing denies.

The US has in recent months imposed sanctions on hundreds of entities and individuals for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, including Chinese firms that it says are helping Moscow get around sanctions.

Last month, Washington announced sanctions against two Chinese companies accused of cooperating with Russia to design and build long-range attack drones.

Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine was the first Chinese entity targeted by the US Department of Treasury and accused of “directly developing and producing” weapons systems with Russian firms was. The US said the company was responsible for producing an engine placed in drones before they were shipped out of China.

And Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen was accused of working with Russian defence firm TSK Vektor to allow the supply of drones to Russia.

Despite the perceived close ties with Moscow, Beijing has continued to call for de-escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has repeatedly positioned China as a peacemaker in the Ukraine war.

Tidal surge in China, AI power race, ‘time traveller’ emperor: 7 science highlights

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3285240/tidal-surge-china-ai-power-race-time-traveller-emperor-7-science-highlights?utm_source=rss_feed

We have put together stories from our coverage on science from the past two weeks to help you stay informed. If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider .

Along the coast of northeastern China’s Bohai Sea, the water began to rise as it normally does when tide comes in. But the water kept rising. Under the cover of darkness, the tidal surge swept across several coastal regions in the provinces of Liaoning and Hebei, as well as the city of Tianjin, which is situated just over 100km (62 miles) southeast of the capital Beijing.

A Chinese company says it has conducted a test flight of a prototype commercial transport plane that can travel at Mach 4 – or twice the speed of a Concorde. Space Transportation, which is headquartered in Beijing, on Sunday said its Yunxing prototype had successfully completed the test flight a day earlier.

When a mass extinction event 66 million years ago wiped out three-quarters of the world’s plants and animals – including the dinosaurs – among the survivors was a tiny, black beetle.

Thailand is poised to become the first country to take part in Chinese and US-led space exploration initiatives, despite the two powers being seen as rivals in a new space race.

French physicist and Nobel laureate Gérard Mourou has joined Peking University’s school of physics as a chair professor, where he is expected to play a “crucial role” in the establishment of an institute focused on research and international collaborations.

In the ancient Chinese calendar, the year corresponding to AD1 is called yuan shi yuan nian, or the “first year of a primordial beginning”. The official reign name, which symbolises a new start, was coined by Wang Mang, then a minister and “consort kin” of the Han dynasty (206BC-AD220), a title referring to his being a cousin of the 12th emperor. It would be some five centuries before the Latin concept of “Anno Domini”, or AD itself was born.

As China embraces the coming AI era, a programme to set up a computing power corridor across the country will cover 99 per cent of the nation’s population, according to a key architect of the project. It is the complete opposite of the United States’ approach.

Philippines unlikely to turn up heat in South China Sea dispute after US election: report

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285285/philippines-unlikely-turn-heat-south-china-sea-dispute-after-us-election-report?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines is likely to maintain a “low-intensity” approach to China in the transition period after the United States election, a survey by a Beijing-based think tank has concluded.

The South China Sea Probing Initiative spoke to six analysts about how they expected the territorial dispute to unfold in the wake of Tuesday’s vote, including one who said a large-scale conflict was unlikely in the foreseeable future.

“During the transition period of the US government, the Philippines is likely to continue engaging China at sea in a low-intensity manner,” Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said in the survey.

“On the legal front, the Philippine president might sign the Maritime Zones Act, using domestic legislation to legitimise gains acquired unlawfully and to expand its unilateral claims.”

The act would enshrine into domestic law the limits of the Philippines’ maritime claims, including its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

He also said that in the long run Manila might push for talks with other South China Sea claimants about their maritime boundaries and leave Beijing out of the picture. He also warned that it could trigger a further round of international arbitration.

A 2016 tribunal in The Hague ruled that there is no legal basis for China’s expansive claims in the waters in a case brought by the Philippines. Beijing has rejected that ruling.

In June, Manila filed a submission to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, seeking to extend the legal limits of its continental seabed off the west coast of Palawan.

The two countries have clashed repeatedly in the South China Sea over the past year or so around disputed features such as Scarborough Shoal, Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine ships regularly try to carry out resupply missions to marines stationed on a grounded warship.

Manila has regularly accused Chinese ships of adopting aggressive tactics, including the use of water cannons and lasers and attacking and injuring personnel.

Hu Bo, the director of the South China Sea Probing Initiative, said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the situation, adding that some of the tensions had been overdramatised and there was no sign of a large-scale conflict.

“As the principal powers steering the region’s dynamics, China and the United States agree robustly on preventing conflict and maintaining peace, despite both preparing for the worst-case scenario,” Hu said.

“This policy stance has been clearly communicated through various bilateral channels, and it is expected to hold steady, independent of changes in the US presidency.”

But Ding said the US intended to “reshape the security environment around China” and could use the dispute to do so, along with strengthening its alliance with the Philippines.

Washington has a network of alliances across the Asia-Pacific region and has been building security partnerships with other countries, including other South China Sea claimants. China regards this as interference by the US and has repeatedly urged other countries to avoid outside influences.

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have been engaged in protracted talks about a code of conduct to reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea for the past two decades, and aim to finalise the code by 2026.

Wu Shicun, founding president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, questioned how effective any code would be, and added that claimants were likely to take a range of actions to assert their claims.

“Even if the negotiating parties can reach a compromise to agree on a ‘simplified’ version of the rules, the code’s ability to effectively manage the crisis and restrain the actions of the parties involved in the South China Sea will remain limited,” he added.

---

China’s provinces push personnel to meet targets as end of year approaches

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3285306/chinas-provinces-push-personnel-meet-targets-end-year-approaches?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese localities are redoubling their efforts to meet annual targets for economic growth in the final quarter of the year, calling on officials to accelerate investment, enhance consumption, and increase foreign trade as the window of opportunity begins to narrow.

The southern island province of Hainan, in a meeting of its standing committee on Sunday, emphasised the importance of doing “everything possible” to achieve this year’s economic and social development goals. The committee, the province’s highest political authority, urged government personnel to take a “no excuses” attitude and “make every second count,” according to a statement released after the session.

The committee also instructed officials to “stay sharply focused” on year-end targets, and “use extraordinary measures to spur economic growth and development.”

Shandong province held a similar high-level meeting on Monday, with similar language intended to induce fulfilment of annual targets. Leaders of the eastern province also mentioned investment, consumption and foreign trade as areas essential for maintaining a steady and positive growth trajectory.

“Key risks must be managed effectively to maintain a strong baseline,” read a statement from the provincial government.

The provincial meetings follow a speech by President Xi Jinping to senior officials at the Central Party School – China’s foremost ideological training centre – last Tuesday, where he instructed cadres at all levels to do their utmost to reach annual economic targets.

Shandong recorded gross domestic product growth of 5.6 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, ranking third among all regions, while Hainan saw only 3.2 per cent growth for the same period. The national benchmark, set at the country’s legislative sessions in March, is “around 5 per cent” growth for the year.

“People must strengthen their sense of responsibility and urgency in driving economic work,” said Dong Yu, executive vice-director of Tsinghua University’s China Institute for Development Planning. In an article published by Communist Party newspaper People’s Daily, the academic said a “comprehensive, objective and calm assessment” was needed to apprehend the current economic situation.

Having reported GDP growth of 4.8 per cent over the first three quarters of 2024, China will have a hard time meeting the annual target without significant efforts to turn things around, analysts said.

Quarterly growth has slowed consistently over the year, down from 5.3 per cent in the first quarter to 4.7 per cent in the second and 4.6 per cent in the third.

Economists say growth in the final quarter would need to rebound sharply to reach the annual target – with estimates ranging from 5.2 to 5.4 per cent – a daunting task as the nation continues to grapple with a prolonged slump in the property market, hefty debt burdens for local governments and weakened demand across sectors.

“Since July’s Politburo meeting underscored the goal of achieving annual growth, these tasks ultimately fall to local governments, particularly in key economic provinces and those with growth potential,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank connected to the government of the southern province.

“Local authorities must demonstrate they’ve made every effort, even if that means narrowing the gap rather than fully reaching the target.”

Peng added various compounding factors, particularly weak consumer demand, are undermining confidence among businesses and local governments.

Guangdong – historically a provincial leader in economic growth – is likely to fall short of the annual target, he added. “It’s essential to prepare the public for this outcome instead of avoiding the discussion.”

Though China can still achieve its growth target – or at least come close – that metric is not the biggest issue it faces, said Chen Ling, an assistant professor of international studies at Johns Hopkins University.

“The biggest challenge right now is to revive the local economy and reduce the local debts that are dragging down the economy. To fundamentally revive the local economy, China has to revamp its manufacturing industry after the death of real estate. ”

Chen suggested measures which would go beyond the sort of large-scale stimulus employed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. “The central government needs to use some of the administrative and cadre-evaluation measures dating back to the 1990s to incentivise local bureaucrats, redevelop the private sector and stimulate consumption.”

---

China KOL adopts pig feed diet costing 40 US cents to save money, raising health concerns

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3285245/china-kol-adopts-pig-feed-diet-costing-40-us-cents-save-money-raising-health-concerns?utm_source=rss_feed

An influencer in China consumed pig feed costing just 3 yuan (40 US cents) a day to save money, asserting it is healthier than takeaway food, which has sparked widespread health concerns.

Kong Yufeng, known online as “King Kong Liuke”, is a popular handicraft influencer on Douyin, boasting 2.8 million followers. She is a graduate of one of China’s top art schools, the Sichuan Fine Arts Institute.

On October 30, Kong posted a video in which she expressed her intention to live on as little money as possible, although she did not disclose her reasons for this challenge. She adopted the top-ranked money-saving suggestion from Zhihu, a popular Chinese forum: eating pig feed.

Kong spent 100 yuan (US$14) on a bag of pig feed, which she described as having a “milky oatmeal smell” upon opening. The video revealed that the pig feed contains ingredients such as soybeans, peanuts, sesame, corn, and added vitamins.

She stated: “It’s all high-protein, low-fat, and completely natural. Isn’t this healthier than takeaway food?”

Kong explained that 100g of pig feed per meal cost her only 3 yuan a day. She then mixed some of the pig feed with warm water and consumed it all at once.

However, the unpleasant taste caused her to grimace, prompting her to exclaim: “It’s so salty! A bit sour too! I cannot stand it; I need to drink more water.”

After finishing the remaining pig feed, she announced her plan to adhere to this diet for a week to determine if it was feasible to maintain her health solely on pig feed and water.

Kong also urged her followers against imitating her behaviour, stating: “do not do this unless you’re extremely poor.”

Her stunt quickly garnered attention on mainland social media, drawing 6.3 million views on Weibo.

One online observer remarked: “She is ridiculous. How can food meant for pigs meet food safety standards for humans?”

Another commented: “During times of famine, pig feed would have been valuable nourishment. But in today’s world of high living standards, why seek out trouble?”

A pig feed company employee informed Shangyou News that while the feed is not harmful, it is not digestible by humans and therefore not intended for people.

A nutritionist, surnamed Chen, told the Post that relying on a pig feed diet could lead to deficiencies in calcium, iron, and iodine, potentially resulting in malnutrition, osteoporosis, and fatigue.

One internet user criticised Kong’s actions: “As a popular influencer, her behaviour can influence others. What if a child tries to imitate her? The consequences could be dire.”

The Post reached out to Kong for comment, but no response had been received at the time of writing. Meanwhile, her video has been removed from mainland social media platforms, and her account is no longer searchable.

Can China’s leap into smart agriculture ensure its food security?

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3284518/can-chinas-leap-smart-agriculture-ensure-its-food-security?utm_source=rss_feed

As China faces food security challenges, can a digital revolution in agriculture hold the key to its food future? Beijing thinks so. It unveiled a five-year action plan on October 25 to accelerate this transformation, aiming to establish a digital planting technology scheme and a national agricultural big data platform by 2028.

Covering farms, livestock and fisheries, this initiative is designed to reduce costs and enhance efficiency. The push to use big data, the global positioning system (GPS) and artificial intelligence arises as China ramps up investment in farm machinery and seed technology to safeguard its food security.

China is the world’s biggest agricultural producer and importer. With less than 10 per cent of the planet’s arable land and even less of the water resources, China produces a quarter of the world’s grain and feeds one-fifth of the world’s population. It is also a major food exporter.

Amid changing geopolitical dynamics, climate change, trade disruptions and domestic challenges, China’s ambitious new strategy emphasises a greater role for technology in food production. Food security and self-sufficiency have long been priorities for China, and remain so under President Xi Jinping. But it is an uphill battle.

Chinese agricultural production faces many challenges, including changing dietary preferences and rising incomes, demand outstripping supply, arable land and water constraints, environmental degradation and competing land uses. Declining fertility rates and urbanisation patterns also raise questions over who will make up the future rural workforce.

Climate shocks exacerbate matters, raising fears of crop failure and increases in pests and diseases. A severe drought across the Yangtze River basin in 2022, China’s rice production base, laid bare 2.2 million hectares of arable land and left countless livestock dead.

The climate consequences are severe. Researchers estimate that a combination of climate change and ozone pollution reduced China’s crop yield by 10 per cent or 55 million tons per year between 1981 and 2010.

Changing diet patterns have also played a key role in driving up Chinese imports of edible oils, sugar, meat, animal feed and processed foods. Notably in 2021, China had to import nearly 70 per cent of its edible oil needs, close to its crude oil import dependence.

President Xi has made food supply a top priority, declaring the rice bowls of China’s 1.4 billion people “will always be firmly held in our own hands”.

Beijing has made significant strides in boosting agricultural productivity. Since 2013, China has largely adopted a dual approach to food security, aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in staples (such as rice and wheat) and key protein sources (especially pork) while relying on the international market for non-staple supplies (such as soybeans).

Under President Xi, China has allocated significant resources to national and provincial food policies, reducing food waste and protecting arable land. Beijing has intensified pressure on local governments to enhance grain production and enforce stricter regulations on farmland protection, including a “red line” minimum on arable land.

The policies have had some success. China is on track for a record grain output this year in a boost for its drive to improve food security. Agriculture vice-minister Zhang Xingwang said the harvest is expected to exceed 700 million tonnes for the first time, after nine straight years of production above 650 tonnes.

China is also diversifying its food import sources to reduce dependence on a single region or country, thereby avoiding any supply chokeholds such as the so-called Malacca dilemma – should the US blockade the Malacca Strait in a war – and allowing Beijing to increase control over all stages of its global food supply chains.

To achieve this, China is strengthening its trade relationships. It has signed more than 100 agricultural cooperation agreements with countries under the Belt and Road Initiative, securing alternative suppliers of products like wheat, corn and soybeans.

However, whether the country can achieve the goal of food self-sufficiency remains uncertain.

Some policies have had adverse consequences for other aspects of food production. For instance, China’s increased grain production in less-developed inland and northern regions has intensified water challenges in these areas, which have limited water resources and rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation.

Furthermore, China’s self-sufficiency ratio has dropped in recent decades, as the country shifted to become a net food importer in 2004. Its food self-sufficiency rate fell from 93.6 per cent in 2000 to 65.8 per cent in 2020. By 2030, this could drop to 58.8 per cent, heightening its import dependence.

Meanwhile, China’s changing food consumption patterns and the growth of the middle class are additional considerations. In particular, rising disposable incomes are driving demand for animal protein and dairy, sugar, edible oils and processed foods. One study estimated that by next year China would account for 31 per cent of the global increase of protein consumption from 2018. Total food demand is projected to increase by 16-30 per cent by 2050, with beef and dairy demand nearly doubling.

To meet this demand, China will need to add up to 12,000 sq km of agricultural land. This indicates that Beijing is likely to remain a major food importer in the short to medium term, emphasising the severity of the challenges the Chinese authorities still face in increasing local food production.

China’s smart agriculture plan reflects Beijing’s commitment to safeguarding food security amid evolving international and external concerns. But major challenges persist. As the country strives for greater self-sufficiency in food production, encouraging technological advancements and addressing the many agricultural production challenges will be crucial to achieving Beijing’s goals.