Mistral点评

• Chinese officials told to stop avoiding media questions about emergencies
• Will China’s top legislature give the green light to fiscal stimulus package?
• China says military plane entered Japan’s airspace because of ‘unexpected obstruction’
• How many foreigners work in the Chinese capital? Fewer and fewer
• How China’s smaller private firms may be paying the price for huge local government debts
• China entrepreneur, 35, worth US$850 million, joins Forbes women rich list, tying with Madonna
• Is China’s military ready to unveil its second stealth fighter at Zhuhai air show?
• Pakistan watches China-India border thaw with mixed feelings over Kashmir
• Teen Chinese ‘maths genius’ was helped by teacher to ace global contest, probe finds
• China’s food security puts onus on agro-diplomacy as trade doors swing open and closed
• Big savings nudge Hong Kong shoppers to ignore ban on meat, eggs from mainland China
• How Indonesia is going its own way on Beijing, Brics and the South China Sea
• Rich China rising star Esther Yu famous for playful fashion choices forges independent path
• Shein touted as model unicorn in China’s ‘new quality productive force’ push, IPO unclear
• Trump 2.0: older, more aggressive and potentially a bigger China hawk

Chinese officials told to stop avoiding media questions about emergencies

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3285024/chinese-officials-told-stop-avoiding-media-questions-about-emergencies?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese government officials will no longer be allowed to avoid commenting on emergencies under new proposals to give journalists better “legal protection”.

A commentary published on Friday in Legal Weekly, a newspaper under the supervision of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission – a party body with a wide range of supervisory powers over the legal system and security apparatus – said changes to the Emergency Response Law meant officials should not be evasive in response to media queries.

The law was adopted by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee in 2007, and was revised for the first time in June. The changes came into effect this month.

“The implementation of the [amended] Emergency Response Law means that government departments can no longer use ‘no comment’ to prevaricate when responding to media questions on emergencies,” the Legal Weekly commentary said.

“It undoubtedly provides legal protection for news interviews and reports on emergencies.”

The commentary highlighted Article 8 of the law, which stipulates that government departments should “support the news media in their coverage and public oversight” of official bodies, and that news coverage of emergencies should be “timely, accurate, objective and fair”.

It also highlighted the duty of government to be prompt in releasing public alerts and other information about emergency responses.

The amended law also warned that no institutions or individuals should “fabricate or deliberately spread false information about emergencies”, and that government bodies should promptly release clarifications if “false or incomplete information” is spreading in the public domain.

The commentary noted that the amended Article 97 stipulates that if the person directly responsible for spreading false information is a public official, “they shall also be punished in accordance with the law”.

The All-China Journalists Association said on Thursday that without timely information and public oversight during emergencies, the government risked falling into a “Tacitus Trap”.

Named after the Roman historian Tacitus, the concept suggests that a government with no public trust will always be hated by the people, no matter what it does.

A lecturer from the Communication University of China, who declined to be named, said the amendments were a good start in granting the media some freedom and protection to cover emergencies, but local government officials could easily find ways to circumvent the “no comment” rules.

“What’s key is the law says now the officials will be held responsible if they are found to have fabricated information,” the lecturer said.

“This will curb a little the knee-jerk tendency of local officials to cover up. But they can still play delaying tactics, because the law was not very clear on how timely the release of information should be.

“Alternatively, they can also get around the rules by saying ‘we are still investigating it’, or ‘the death toll is still being calculated’ – which are de facto ‘no comments’.”

The propaganda chief of one area could also call a counterpart in another area, asking for censorship and offering to reciprocate in the future.

“All these are very common in China nowadays, so we can only be cautiously optimistic,” he added.

Will China’s top legislature give the green light to fiscal stimulus package?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284821/will-chinas-top-legislature-give-green-light-fiscal-stimulus-package?utm_source=rss_feed

The National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, China’s top legislative body, will convene in Beijing on Monday to discuss a wide range of issues. A large fiscal stimulus, recommended by several prominent economists and hotly anticipated by investors, is likely to be among them.

As markets speculate over the potential size of a fiscal package – with estimates ranging from 2 trillion yuan (US$280.66 billion) to as high as 10 trillion yuan – we have compiled some basic facts about the coming session, how they would approve such a stimulus and when the public is likely to find out about it.

China’s financial ministry under the State Council – the country’s cabinet – typically submits the fiscal budget to the NPC for approval during the annual legislative session in March, a necessary step before implementation.

The NPC Standing Committee, which exercises legislative authority outside the full session, is empowered to approve any adjustments to government budgets within the financial year – including changes to the annual fiscal deficit ratio, the quota for special treasury bonds, and the ceiling for local government debt levels.

It traditionally convenes every two months, often at the end of even-numbered months. There have been exceptions to this informal custom; the coming conclave will ring in November, and a previous meeting this year was held in mid-September.

The agenda for the November meeting did not include bills related to the financial ministry or budget plans. However, this does not mean it cannot happen: on several occasions, budgetary adjustments have been announced after the fact.

Last October, the committee issued an additional 1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds to mitigate the effects of natural disasters and aid the country in achieving its annual target for gross domestic product growth.

This adjustment raised the national fiscal deficit from 3.88 trillion yuan to 4.88 trillion yuan, and increased the deficit ratio from 3 per cent to around 3.8 per cent.

In 2008, Beijing approved a 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package to mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis.

That figure, which accounted for 13 per cent of China’s GDP at the time, was initially disclosed at a State Council executive meeting and made public a few days later.

Since the central bank began its monetary easing in late September, the market has anticipated changes to the bond issuance quota or deficit ratio at the coming NPC meeting, with estimates ranging from 2 trillion to over 10 trillion yuan.

Former central bank adviser Wang Yiming predicted on Tuesday that the standing committee could approve an additional 1.5 to 2.5 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, and investment bank Goldman Sachs said last week that lawmakers may raise the central government’s special bond issuance quota by 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan.

Economists like Liu Shangxi of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences have advocated for a stimulus package exceeding 10 trillion yuan, though it could take years for the full amount to be realised.

Typically, a statement is published on the official NPC website after a resolution has been passed.

Last year, following the committee’s approval of additional treasury bonds and a central budget adjustment, the NPC website released a brief statement on the same day, noting the action without disclosing specifics.

State agencies and media outlets, such as Xinhua and People’s Daily, subsequently provided more information in their reports, including the volume of the bonds issued and their intended use.

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China says military plane entered Japan’s airspace because of ‘unexpected obstruction’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285014/china-says-military-plane-entered-japans-airspace-because-unexpected-obstruction?utm_source=rss_feed

Beijing has attributed an incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into Japan’s airspace in late August to an unspecified “unexpected obstruction”, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported on the weekend, citing diplomatic sources.

The explanation comes amid plans on both sides for an imminent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who assumed office on October 1.

Both leaders are expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit from November 15 to 16 in Peru and the Group of 20 leaders summit from November 18 to 19 in Brazil.

The first summit between the pair is “most likely” to take place in Peru, sources told Kyodo on Thursday.

Ishiba, still reeling from a general election defeat late last month, is expected to raise concerns about China’s increasing military manoeuvres and “seek further explanation” on the airspace breach incident, according to the report.

According to Japan’s defence ministry, a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane entered Japanese airspace off Danjo Islands in southwestern Nagasaki prefecture on August 26. The incursion over the East China Sea lasted for about two minutes, and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (SDF) scrambled fighter jets in response.

Beijing has not acknowledged any wrongdoing so far or voiced regret over the breach, which according to Tokyo was “the first confirmed and announced airspace incursion by a Chinese military aircraft”.

Tokyo called the incident a “serious violation” of Japanese sovereignty and a threat to its security, and lodged a “very severe protest” with the Chinese side.

But Beijing, in its first official explanation, appeared to blame Japanese activities for triggering the intrusion, according to a separate Kyodo report.

The “obstruction” claimed by the Chinese side “may be a reference to the tracking of Chinese military planes” by Japanese SDF aircraft, even though Beijing did not name Japan or its military, diplomatic sources told Kyodo.

Beijing initially said it had “no intention of breaching any country’s airspace”. But on August 27, a day after the incident, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that Chinese authorities were “gathering and verifying relevant information” on the matter.

It later claimed the incident was “completely accidental”. The Japanese government dismissed the claim as “nonsense” and called on Beijing to clarify the facts, Kyodo reported.

Last month, during his first meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Ishiba conveyed Tokyo’s concerns about the incursion and other Chinese military activities, as well as anti-Japanese sentiments in China.

He strongly urged Beijing to swiftly explain the fatal stabbing attack in September on a Japanese boy in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, demanding a crackdown on malicious and anti-Japanese social media posts.

Despite the resumption of high-level diplomatic and security exchanges, strains in China-Japan ties have appeared to worsen in the lead-up to the US presidential election, with both sides largely talking past each other.

China is wary of formally pacifist Japan’s rearmament plans and its growing closeness to treaty ally the United States to counter Beijing’s alleged aggressive posturing in the Taiwan Strait and the disputed East and South China seas.

In a sign of Japan’s rise as a regional leader, Japan and the 27-member European Union announced a new security and defence partnership on Friday, pledging to boost cooperation in maritime security and joint drills amid shared concerns about China.

Beijing has appeared to adopt a conciliatory tone in recent weeks.

During his talks with Ishiba on the sidelines of the Asean summit in Laos on October 10, Li said that Japan and China could “meet each other halfway and keep the relationship on the right track”.

Xi also voiced hopes of promoting “strategic and mutually beneficial” relations with Ishiba as he congratulated the prime minister upon taking office.

If the summit with Xi goes ahead, Ishiba is also likely to ask for an early resumption of Japanese seafood imports, after China announced in late September that it would gradually lift its blanket ban.

Beijing imposed the ban in August last year after Japan began to release treated waste water from its damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea. Food safety and public health protection were cited as reasons behind the move.

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How many foreigners work in the Chinese capital? Fewer and fewer

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284986/how-many-foreigners-work-chinese-capital-fewer-and-fewer?utm_source=rss_feed

With just a year to go until Beijing’s self-imposed deadline to become an international hub of innovation, just 22,000 foreigners are living and working long term in the Chinese capital.

The estimate, from a report compiled by the Beijing International Talent Exchange Association and released at a forum late last month, is well down on the 37,000 foreigners reportedly working in the city a decade ago.

The report did not give comparisons for previous years, but it said fewer foreigners had taken up long-term jobs in the city in recent years, to the point where they account for just 0.2 per cent of the capital’s workforce and 0.1 per cent of its population.

There has also been a shift in the origins of Beijing’s foreign community since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report said the percentage of Americans and Europeans had dropped from 16 per cent in 2019 to 12, while Africans now made up 31 per cent of the foreign work force, up from 26 per cent.

The proportion of Russians and residents from eastern Europe is also up, from 11 per cent in 2019 to 16 per cent.

“African professionals are very interested in working in China … those from eastern Europe and Russia are a source of new growth,” the Beijing Labour Employment Newspaper Agency quoted the report as saying. The agency is part of the city’s human resources bureau.

The assessment comes as China is trying to attract professionals from overseas to help move the country up the tech value chain and overcome Western barriers to advanced technology.

In May last year, the central and municipal governments rolled out plans to turn Beijing into a technological innovation hub by 2025. The project is being overseen by President Xi Jinping and involves setting up research centres, sci-tech universities and tech companies.

But, according to the report, only 13 per cent of expatriates were taking up scientific research and engineering posts. About 30 per cent were involved in administrative or teaching jobs. It did not say how the remainder were employed.

Nevertheless, more foreigners working in the capital had advanced academic degrees. In 2023, over 40 per cent of expatriates working in the capital had at least a master’s degree, it said, without offering a comparison.

The report also said 20 per cent of the expatriates working in Beijing met the requirement for tier-A working visas, which are usually given to international personnel recruited by regional governments for higher-paying jobs. That share is 13 percentage points higher than in 2018.

China has very few foreign-born workers – in sharp contrast to places such as Silicon Valley, where about 70 per cent of workers were born outside the United States in 2016.

To attract talent, China launched a permanent residence scheme in 2004, but by 2018 only 12,000 green cards had been issued.

There was also an exodus of expatriates from China during and after the pandemic but there are no official numbers on just how many left and how many came back.

In 2014, the 37,000 foreigners taking up long-term jobs in Beijing were mostly from the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Australia. Most of them worked in IT, education, consultancy, and technological research, the China News Service reported at the time.

They were employed at more than 11,000 companies and institutes, ranging from multinationals, to joint ventures and domestic companies.

Despite the lifting of Covid restrictions and the desire to attract foreign workers, European companies struggle to lure the talent to China, according to a survey this year by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

“One significant trend observed is the decoupling between global headquarters and China operations over the past two years. Forty-one per cent of respondents reported this phenomenon, resulting in numerous challenges,” the chamber said.

Other difficulties included a slowdown in existing operations, and reduced ability to capitalise on new projects or investment plans.

The American Chamber of Commerce in China said another factor was rising concern about the geopolitical tension between China and the US.

How China’s smaller private firms may be paying the price for huge local government debts

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3285016/how-chinas-smaller-private-firms-may-be-paying-price-huge-local-government-debts?utm_source=rss_feed

Private firms in China are in a “precarious” situation as debt-ridden local governments increasingly seek to boost earnings through harsh criminal law enforcement, lawyers and observers have warned.

The latest such case, involving a businessman based in eastern Shandong province, has sparked fresh worries despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to foster a supportive legal environment for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

The businessman was owed 230 million yuan (US$32.3 million) for a government-backed construction project in southern Guizhou province. However, a Guizhou court in September charged him with criminal contract fraud and other unlawful acts and sentenced him to 19 years in prison.

The ruling compounded concerns that local authorities were using unduly harsh legal action targeting businesses elsewhere to ease the debt situation, pressuring firms to write-off government debts or imposing stiff fines to boost coffers.

The tendency for such cross-regional prosecutions has “been intensifying”, according to a Beijing-based legal expert who did not wish to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

“Entrepreneurs in China now find themselves in an extremely precarious situation”, which has triggered “a sense of despair and fear”, the expert said.

Huge local government debts are primarily the result of a drop in sales of land, often used as collateral for bank loans, as well as decades of pursuing vanity projects. This has had a knock-on effect on private businesses, belying central government efforts to promote the private sector and revive business confidence.

Regional authorities have sought to protect local businesses as slow growth hammers the private sector. This has given rise to the growing trend of “distant fishing”, or reaching across jurisdictions to target companies for financial gain, often violating legal principles.

Nearly 10,000 businesses in the southern city of Guangzhou have faced such profit-driven law enforcement action since last year, according to a report from the Guangdong Provincial Investigation and Research Centre in April.

Shenzhen and Dongguan, two other wealthy Guangdong cities, were among the hotspots for such action, the report said.

In many cases, authorities unlawfully went to other regions to seize and freeze assets of companies and individuals, or even impose fines, Chinese media reports said.

Long prison sentences of usually over 10 years, together with millions of yuan in fines, had left entrepreneurs feeling powerless to defend themselves, the expert said, calling the costs in money and freedom “extremely brutal”.

The Shandong businessman was ordered by the court in Guizhou to return more than 172 million yuan his firm earned from the project. The court held that he acquired the contract through bribery, and all related profits after costs were “improper financial gains”.

But documents produced in court by his lawyers showed they had consulted at least three prominent professors of law in Beijing, who unanimously concluded that there was no evidence of contract fraud by the accused, nor did his actions constitute bribery.

“The local government failed to uphold its promise to maintain the rule of law and improve the business environment; instead, it arbitrarily stripped a private entrepreneur of his freedom and property”, the legal team alleged.

A similar case, also in Guizhou, sparked a public backlash in February, when it was revealed that a businesswoman had been arrested after seeking for years to recover over 200 million yuan in back payment from a city-level government.

Local police detained both her and her lawyers for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” – a broadly defined and controversial charge that even China’s top court said was being “excessively used” at local levels to prevent complaints to higher authorities.

The catch-all offence or “pocket crime” has been used to allege other kinds of wrongdoing including contract fraud, general fraud and land damage, the Beijing expert said.

In June, provincial authorities announced that all criminal charges against the businesswoman had been dropped following an investigation, and that local authorities had cleared more than 30 million yuan in back payment owed to her.

According to the expert, civil fraud has become almost indistinguishable from criminal fraud in China. “If it’s civil fraud, it tends to be treated [by local authorities] as criminal fraud, a much more serious offence. This lack of distinction is used to extract money.”

This has cast a shadow over China’s efforts to support private firms, in particular SMEs, which are vital to technological innovation and jobs as the post-Covid economy has yet to take off in earnest.

Beijing has repeatedly vowed to “take all necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests” of private firms and regulate profit-driven cross-regional law enforcement. Last month, it released the draft of a new law to promote the private economy and make it easier to do business in China by creating a more stable, fair, and predictable environment.

The legal expert in Beijing said a major incentive for police to carry out cross-regional law enforcement was the prospect of imposing fines and seizing property. The seized assets become part of the local official budget and are then partly returned to local agencies, effectively serving as “rewards”.

According to a lawyer from Jiangxi province, this incentive prompts local courts, prosecutors’ bodies and police agencies to work together as an “interest alliance” to generate revenue.

This has led to wrongful convictions, misapplied charges and excessive penalties, said the lawyer, who also wished to remain anonymous.

With local finances tight, some areas have even set “fine quotas” for agencies and linked them to budget funds, thus encouraging these agencies to prioritise high-value cases and even over-enforcement to meet targets, the Beijing-based expert added.

In some cases, jurisdiction was “artificially established”, said the lawyer in Jiangxi, and sometimes a “professional victim” would be presented to create a jurisdictional link to justify the police action.

The legal expert in Beijing also called for judicial authority to be centralised at the national level rather than controlled by local authorities. But this would require an amendment of the constitution.

Zhu Zhengfu, a representative of China’s top legislature, has repeatedly called for a change in the law or a legal interpretation to ensure all proceeds from criminal cases go to the central treasury.

The case of the businessman tried in Guizhou is currently in second-instance proceedings, where a higher court reviews the judgment to make the final ruling. His legal team has requested for the case to be transferred to a different jurisdiction.

China entrepreneur, 35, worth US$850 million, joins Forbes women rich list, tying with Madonna

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/china-personalities/article/3284833/china-entrepreneur-35-worth-us850-million-joins-forbes-women-rich-list-tying-madonna?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese woman has emerged as one of the youngest and richest individuals in the country, having been listed on the “Hurun China Rich List 2024” with a net worth of 8.5 billion yuan (US$1.2 billion).

Following the release of the mainland rich list on October 29, 35-year-old Wang Shuo quickly became the focus of public intrigue.

Wang also appears on Forbes’ list of the “Richest Self-Made Women in America 2024”, but it estimates her net worth at US$850 million, ranking her at 39th and tying with the iconic Queen of Pop, Madonna. Notably, she stands out as one of the youngest on the list, as all other women are over 60.

So, who is she, and how did she accumulate her substantial fortune?

Born in Shenyang, Liaoning province in northeastern China, Wang moved to the US with her mother at the age of 16, settling in Baltimore, Maryland.

While attending school, she supported her mother by selling scooters at a flea market on weekends. Her warm and enthusiastic personality significantly boosted sales, even as a non-native English speaker.

“That was my first sales experience,” Wang shared with Forbes last year. “I needed to learn how to sell so that I could help my mum.”

This experience marked the beginning of her entrepreneurial journey, where she grasped the importance of offering a unique product.

“If everyone else is selling fruits, vegetables, and food, but we’re selling scooters, then we have an edge,” she explained.

While helping with her mother’s business, Wang excelled academically and was later accepted into the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). There, she completed her undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering with a focus on robotics and began her master’s degree.

At MIT, she met Alex Bouaziz, who would later become a close friend and business partner.

In 2015, Wang made the bold decision to drop out of graduate school to co-found Aeris Cleantec AG, a company specialising in air purifiers, where she served as Chief Technology Officer.

She returned to Beijing to design and produce these purifiers, eventually selling them internationally.

Aeris was acquired by iRobot in 2021 for around US$100 million, marking Wang’s first significant windfall and affirming her entrepreneurial talent.

In 2019, Wang, Bouaziz, and co-founder Ofer Simon established Deel, a human resources service provider focused on streamlining payroll, hiring, and immigration processes for companies with remote workers.

This initiative was born from Wang’s foresight during the pandemic, when she recognised that remote work would become a major trend and shared her insights with Bouaziz, who was in the UK at the time.

Their timely vision allowed them to rapidly launch their new venture.

Wang is renowned for her relentless work ethic, often working from 8.30am to 11pm, with only a quick gym session before dinner as a break.

She personally interviewed the first 400 employees of the start-up to help “cultivate and maintain a consistent corporate culture”.

“I have a strong competitive spirit and strive for perfection in everything,” Wang expressed in a later speech.

By March this year, the company’s revenue had surpassed US$500 million. Deel last raised funds at a valuation of US$12 billion in 2021, underscoring the company’s success and positioning Wang as one of the most promising entrepreneurial stars in the world.

Is China’s military ready to unveil its second stealth fighter at Zhuhai air show?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3285007/chinas-military-ready-unveil-its-second-stealth-fighter-zhuhai-air-show?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s newest stealth fighter is expected to be officially unveiled at a major air show this month, announcing its entry into service.

Yue Gang, a retired colonel, said it was “very likely” that the plane would be officially unveiled at the show in Zhuhai in the southern province of Guangdong.

The state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China posted a series of photos and videos of the prototype, the FC-31 Gyrfalcon, on social media on Thursday, marking the 12th anniversary of the aircraft’s maiden flight.

Most of the other posts with the same hashtag were previews of aircraft to be unveiled at the air show.

The firm is the parent company of the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, which makes the stealth fighter.

The fighter is the Chinese equivalent of Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II. Its entry into service would make China the second country after the United States to have two types of stealth aircraft.

China’s other stealth fighter, the J-20, entered service in 2017.

In 2015 state news agency Xinhua reported that the plane could complement the J-20 in aerial combat and a carrier-based version might also be produced.

The new fighter has yet to be given an official service designation and previous media reports and military commentators have referred to it as both the J-31 and the J-35.

Unverified lists circulating on social media of the aircraft that would be on display at the air show said one of the planes appearing would be the J-35A – a model that has not yet been officially confirmed as part of the PLA Air Force’s fleet.

Yue said that the introduction of the new stealth fighter, especially one that could be used as a carrier-based aircraft, would “narrow the gap between [China] and the United States”.

Therefore, “time waits for no one” when it comes to the plane’s entry into service, Yue said.

State media and the manufacturer have dropped a series of hints in recent months that the plane would soon be entering service.

Online images circulating in February showed an apparent full-scale model of the fighter on the deck of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

In July state broadcaster CCTV broadcast promotional footage from the manufacturer that triggered speculation among some military commentators that the plane was ready to enter service.

Beijing is also reportedly pushing to export the jet.

China displayed a model of the prototype at the World Defence Show in Saudi Arabia in February. A Chinese official at the show said the plane was not yet in service with the PLA Air Force but would be soon.

Pakistan’s air force chief said in January that his country was on track to acquire the fighter.

The China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition – also known as Airshow China or the Zhuhai air show – will be held in the southern coastal city from November 12 to 17.

It will be the biggest event to date, with an expanded exhibition hall and almost twice as many overseas exhibitors compared with the last air show, which was held during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2022.

The event is co-hosted by the Guangdong provincial government and the PLA Air Force, and organised by the Zhuhai local government.

Pakistan watches China-India border thaw with mixed feelings over Kashmir

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3284863/pakistan-watches-china-india-border-thaw-mixed-feelings-over-kashmir?utm_source=rss_feed

Pakistan is watching with a mix of relief and concern as its close ally China and arch-rival India seek to de-escalate a four-year stand-off along their disputed Himalayan border.

While Islamabad has remained officially silent on the recent military repositioning, analysts say the easing of tensions at the point in Kashmir where their three frontiers meet is welcomed news.

“Any development that contributes to the stability and security of the region will be welcome in Pakistan,” said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to Britain, the United States, and the United Nations.

De-escalation of Sino-Indian tensions is “good news for South Asia at a time when the situation is so fraught elsewhere in the world”, she said.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs announced an agreement with China on October 21 for “disengagement and resolution of issues” in border areas, following violent clashes that resulted in the deaths of 24 soldiers in June 2020.

The Chinese foreign ministry subsequently confirmed that both sides had “reached a solution” after “close communication” through diplomatic and military channels.

However, analysts say Pakistan remains frustrated by India’s refusal to engage over their own border dispute in Kashmir.

Despite a ceasefire agreement in February 2021 aimed at reducing skirmishes along the contested border, diplomatic relations between the South Asian neighbours have remained largely frozen since 2019.

In a rare visit, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attended a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation conference in Islamabad last month, marking the first ministerial visit since 2015.

He did not engage in formal bilateral dialogue, but during an informal discussion, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reportedly urged Jaishankar to allow India’s cricket team to play in a major tournament Pakistan is hosting early next year.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs later denied that such a request had been made, stating that “nothing of the sort” happened.

Islamabad understands that “shared concerns about India are one of the driving forces” of the China-Pakistan partnership, said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, a Washington think tank.

He cautioned that any signs of a rapprochement between India and China could be “problematic” for Islamabad.

Yet with its own domestic crises, Pakistan has “enough to worry about at home” and may find some solace in the reduced likelihood of a renewed border clash between its two powerful neighbours, “at least for now”, Kugelman said.

Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, said Pakistan would closely monitor developments between China and India, while prioritising its own internal security issues that “must be addressed urgently”.

This year, two suicide attacks by militants on Chinese nationals and Belt and Road Initiative projects have resulted in the deaths of seven Chinese citizens, prompting Beijing last month to advise its citizens against travel to Pakistan’s western provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In a public reprimand, China’s ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, expressed frustration over the attacks, saying “it is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months”.

He urged Pakistan to take action against “all anti-China terrorist groups”, emphasising that “security is the biggest concern” for Beijing and crucial for the success of the US$65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

“Without a safe and sound environment, nothing can be achieved,” the Chinese envoy warned.

Despite these challenges, analysts are confident China will maintain a close relationship with Pakistan given their economic and strategic alignment.

Pakistan Foreign Office spokeswoman Mumtaz Baloch responded to the Chinese ambassador’s comments on Thursday, describing his remarks as “perplexing” and reaffirming Pakistan’s commitment to the safety of its “Chinese brothers” within the South Asian nation.

Analysts say Pakistan lacks the political and economic clout necessary to compel India to engage in meaningful dialogue.

India sees “more advantages with knock-on effects from rapprochement with China than it does with Pakistan”, Kugelman said.

While better relations with Beijing could enhance investment opportunities, India sees little advantage in expanding commercial ties with Islamabad and “isn’t looking for these outcomes”, he added.

Yogesh Gupta, a former Indian ambassador, said the “main problem” in the bilateral relationship was that Pakistan “resorts to terrorism to achieve its political objectives and the issue of Kashmir”.

India has “paid a huge price to control terrorism” in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere, Gupta said, and “can’t condone this problem”.

“If Pakistan moves ahead on these issues, then a dialogue with India can take place,” he added.

However, Pakistan has refused to accept any unilateral change to the status of Kashmir, over which it has fought two major wars with India. In 2020, New Delhi revoked the special status of the parts of Kashmir that it administers, ending the region’s own laws and autonomy and sparking widespread protests.

Lodhi, the former Pakistani ambassador, said that the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had shown “no interest” in resuming talks with Islamabad, “apparently concluding that the absence of dialogue hurts Pakistan and not India”.

Consequently, the recent easing of tensions between China and India is “unlikely to have a knock-on effect on Pakistan-India relations”, she said.

Aamer noted that the diplomatic dynamics between India and China differ significantly from those with Pakistan. While both China and India have engaged in substantial border negotiations and share economic interests as major players in the Global South, similar motivations for dialogue with Pakistan have yet to emerge.

As both India and China continue work to address their border differences, former Indian ambassador Gupta emphasised that withdrawing troops from “eyeball confrontation” and resuming patrols would be essential for maintaining stability.

“This will help in the maintenance of peace, security, and good neighbourly relations,” he said, although he acknowledged that it would “require a lot of patient handling on both sides”

Aamer said that such confidence-building measures from China and India help to signal that the situation in the region “isn’t acutely tense”, ultimately benefiting South Asia as a whole – “something that should be in the interest of all parties”, she said.

Teen Chinese ‘maths genius’ was helped by teacher to ace global contest, probe finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3285002/teen-chinese-maths-genius-was-helped-teacher-ace-global-contest-probe-finds?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese fashion design student hailed as a “genius” for her score in a national maths competition achieved the results with her teacher’s help, according to investigations by her school and the event organiser, who said she “did not win a prize”.

The Lianshui Secondary Vocational School in eastern Jiangsu province said on Sunday that Wang Ruihui, the teacher of Jiang Ping, had been given a warning over the matter and disqualified from this year’s awards for teachers.

Ping came into the national limelight in June, after beating hundreds of competitors from prestigious schools to rank 12th in the Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition’s preliminaries.

The competition is held each year at Alibaba’s Damo Academy in eastern China’s Hangzhou and attracts contestants from some of the top schools around the world. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.

Ping, who was 17 at the time of the competition, was held up as an example of someone who could overcome her modest educational background to achieve major success.

But the national attention prompted scrutiny and other contestants questioned her scores and maths competence.

In a joint letter sent to the organising committee, 39 other finalists said Ping “made several apparent writing mistakes” while solving a problem on a blackboard in a documentary video released by Damo Academy.

“She seemed unfamiliar with these mathematical expressions and symbols,” the contestants wrote, alleging that Ping was helped by her teacher.

In a statement on Sunday, the event’s organising committee said an investigation found that Wang “provided help” to the students under his care, violating the rules.

According to competition rules, the qualifying round is an open-book test, allowing contestants to refer to online and offline materials. But discussion with others is clearly prohibited.

The competition committee apologised, acknowledging shortcomings in management of the event and pledging improvements.

The committee also announced its winners on Sunday, recognising 86 participants for their achievements.

The top five gold medallists were from Peking University, Tsinghua University and the University of Maryland, College Park.

The Lianshui vocational school said it would help teachers and students to better “establish correct values and concepts of success”.

It also asked the public to be forgiving of Ping, who stood out in the competition as the only participant from a vocational school up against the best maths brains from top institutions in China and overseas.

Vocational schools generally take in students who do not make the grade to go to high school and so cannot sit the all-important university entrance examination, or gaokao.

Many internet users said the incident showed that “integrity is more important than talent”.

“Mathematics is objective and cold. You can cheat for once and fool all the people who know little of mathematics, but you cannot fool all of the mathematicians in the game,” one commenter said.

China’s food security puts onus on agro-diplomacy as trade doors swing open and closed

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3284856/chinas-food-security-puts-onus-agro-diplomacy-trade-doors-swing-open-and-closed?utm_source=rss_feed

Boosting imports and closing the nation’s trade surplus with trading partners – those are the big goals when China opens its import-themed trade fair in the coming days.

Now in its 7th iteration since kicking off in 2018, the China International Import Expo (CIIE), which serves as a major platform for China to carve out a bigger piece of the global trade pie, will take place from November 5-10.

And over the past few years, the food and agricultural portion has become one of the event’s most heavily trafficked, in terms of floor coverage and number of exhibitors.

Now, with China having recently announced plans to conduct an anti-dumping investigation into rapeseed imports from Canada, and to collect anti-dumping duties on European brandy, in retaliation for their tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the door has been opened wider to agricultural goods from other parts of the world.

In early September, the first batch of African frozen mutton entered China, two weeks after the country received fresh durians from Malaysia for the first time.

With a comprehensive and diverse industrial chain, the manufacturing superpower is increasingly buying agricultural products from the global market in return for the figurative fruits of its massive industrial capacity.

Tuesday’s opening of the CIIE coincides with the US presidential election, which could result in new China-centric policies that further test the nation’s trade and economy.

Meanwhile, “agricultural diplomacy”, which is taking centre stage in China’s trade landscape as it tries to strike a balance with trading partners, is pushing agricultural imports by the world’s biggest food consumer to record-high levels, according to analysts.

Behind this trend is also the expanding demand from its 1.4 billion people for quality food; leadership’s strategy to broaden food sources; and the country’s lagging agricultural efficiency and high costs, they said.

But the influx is also leading to falling profits and even losses among domestic peers, making it crucial for China to find a more delicate way to better balance the interests of multiple parties, some have warned.

On September 8, a shipment of frozen lamb from Madagascar arrived in China, consisting of 50 packages in excess of 900kg (1,984 pounds). It was the first batch of imported lamb since Madagascar was granted access to the Chinese market last year, marking the first instance of China importing lamb from Africa.

It came just days after the 2024 China-Africa Cooperation Forum Summit concluded in Beijing.

“Trade exchanges are sometimes not just economic activities, they also carry political and diplomatic significance,” said Lin Shen, a researcher with the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

“For example, importing agricultural products from others helps consolidate and develop a friendly cooperative relationship,” he said.

In recent years, China has seen a significant increase in the import volume of many agricultural products. Goods once considered luxury items, such as cherries, durian, beef and king crabs, have thus gradually become more accessible to consumers.

China’s customs data showed that beef imports rose from 290,000 tonnes in 2013 to 2.737 million tonnes last year, reflecting a more than ninefold increase over the past decade.

This trend is also evident in high-end fruit. Substantial imports of Chilean cherries and Thai durians, which are known for their high costs, have triggered debate over their improved affordability in the past year.

In the grain sector, despite ongoing government efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, data released by the Ministry of Agriculture in late September indicated that total grain imports from January to September saw a year-on-year increase of 8.68 per cent, to 43.736 million tonnes.

Zhong Yu, a researcher with the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development at the China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said “agricultural diplomacy is a means to balance trade relations”.

He pointed out that, since many countries in Africa are developing nations, as are many members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, “we cannot expect to purchase agricultural machinery or chips from them, so we mainly import their primary products”.

Those are predominantly energy resources and agricultural products, he added. Among resource-scarce countries, agricultural products become a major export.

Lin noted that, in some countries, including developed ones, farmers represent “a significant voting base”. And this makes them an important group from a political perspective.

“Our imports from the United States, particularly soybeans and corn from the Midwest, for example, are also influenced by these voting considerations,” he said.

In addition to politics, economic factors are driving the surge in imports, Zhong said.

He highlighted three main reasons: global food prices that are generally lower than those in China, supply-and-demand gaps in the domestic market – especially for soybeans and corn – and structural adjustments in certain foods.

For example, while wheat grown in central China’s production base of Henan province is suitable for low-gluten flour, the high-gluten varieties produced locally still do not match those from countries such as France, which are increasingly needed as bread consumption expands, he said.

The Chinese leadership’s emphasis on diversifying food sources, along with consumer demand for diverse and upgraded diets, have also contributed to increased imports, Lin said.

Under President Xi Jinping’s “all-encompassing approach to food” strategy, the State Council, China’s cabinet, in September rolled out a road map to broaden food production beyond traditional farmlands and crops, aiming to establish a diversified food-supply system by 2027 to increase self-reliance.

“Take beef, which does not carry the same security concerns as staple foods, for example,” Lin explained. “The production of meat and poultry consumes significant resources, so it makes sense to import more beef to fill domestic supply gaps.”

He also pointed out that younger consumers, increasingly focused on health and fitness, are no longer limiting their diets to staple grains. Products like avocados, which China imports mostly from Peru and Chile, have therefore gained popularity as beneficial fats for health-conscious individuals.

Similarly, Japan’s Shine Muscat seedless grapes, known for their exceptional sweetness and emerald-green appearance, have been well received in China in recent years.

Due to weaker breeding technologies, China will rely on imports from countries with such agricultural advantages for the time being, Lin said.

On the positive side, an influx of better-tasting and more nutritious agricultural products has made them more affordable for consumers.

Conversely, amid years of bumper harvests and weak demand, large-scale imports have led to continuous price declines for grain and other agricultural products, negatively affecting farmers’ and livestock producers’ incomes.

Despite the principle that “the Chinese people must firmly hold their rice bowls”, a metaphor from the leadership about the importance of ensuring self-reliance in staple foods, China remains the world’s largest importer of grain, with imports reaching 162 million tonnes last year.

To protect domestic markets from the impact of low-priced foreign grain, China has implemented import-tariff quotas on the three main grains: wheat, corn and rice.

The authorities have set specific annual import quotas for all three, with a low tariff of 1 per cent within the quota and a 65 per cent tariff beyond that. So far, customs data shows that wheat imports, with an annual quota of more than 9.6 million tonnes, have exceeded quotas for three consecutive years, and corn, whose annual quota is 7.2 million tonnes, has surpassed that line for five years.

However, with global grain prices far lower than in the domestic market, not even efforts to increase tariffs, upgrade domestic technology, and lower production costs have reversed the situation.

For example, the significant import of corn in recent years, combined with continuous increases in domestic production, has caused corn prices to plummet, recently hitting historic lows, said Ma Wenfeng, an agribusiness analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultancy.

In September, the average wholesale price of corn in the country’s corn-producing areas was 2.20 yuan per kilogram, down 3.6 per cent from the previous month and a 21.5 per cent drop from the same period last year, according to agriculture data provider Beedata.

“The significant import of corn in recent years, and inaction when it comes to exporting corn products, have led to severe market oversupply and hidden unemployment in rural areas,” he said.

He suggested that more administrative measures be taken, proposing the construction of processing bases at major ports in China to mitigate the impact of imports on domestic farmers.

“The National Development and Reform Commission needs to implement policies to establish export-processing zones at coastal and inland ports or comprehensively monitor imports beyond current quotas, requiring all to be processed for export,” he suggested, referring to China’s top economic planner.

“If export targets cannot be met,” he advised, “imports beyond the quota should be prohibited.”

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Big savings nudge Hong Kong shoppers to ignore ban on meat, eggs from mainland China

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3284965/big-savings-nudge-hong-kong-shoppers-ignore-ban-meat-eggs-mainland-china?utm_source=rss_feed

Hong Kong grandmother Shirley Cheung* knows she is breaking the law every time she buys partially cooked beef brisket in Shenzhen to bring home.

At a hotpot restaurant at Shenzhen’s Liantang Port, the brisket costs about 76 yuan (US$11) per kilogram. It would be more than HK$200 (US$26) at her local wet market in Sheung Shui in the New Territories.

“These fresh briskets are delivered to this restaurant only once a day, perfect for making soups and stews,” Cheung, 66, said. “The quality and price make it irresistible, and the meat looks cooked after blanching.”

She is among numerous Hong Kong residents who disregard the law and ignore signs at the border crossing telling them not to bring back food products without proper hygiene certificates, including partially cooked meat that bleeds when cut.

“Everyone does this to save money,” the grandmother of three said. “I doubt the customs officers will catch us all.”

Hong Kong’s Customs and Excise Department spotted 1,324 cases of illegal imports of food items at land-based border checkpoints between January and August. That surpassed the 1,019 cases over the whole of last year.

Most of those caught had raw meat. The 817 caught in the first eight months of this year surpassed the 467 arrested over the whole of last year.

There were 374 caught with uncertified eggs, more than triple the 118 caught over the whole of last year.

Half of those caught were housewives or retirees, and close to four in five were Hong Kong residents, the customs department revealed in September.

The food they brought in was confiscated, and as of April, those dealt with were fined between HK$200 and HK$3,000.

Anyone importing “game, meat, poultry and eggs” into Hong Kong must have a health certificate from the place of origin or written consent from the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department. Those who do not have these permits face a fine of up to HK$50,000 and up to six months in jail.

The department stressed that such products, regardless of packaging or storage methods, fell within the rules. Properly cooked meat or poultry should not have red juices or release blood when cut, it added.

On a visit to various locations in Shenzhen on a recent Thursday afternoon, the Post found it was easy to shop for these banned items, with plenty of willing buyers and sellers.

Passing through the Liantang Port border crossing, it was impossible to miss the numerous posters warning travellers that it was illegal to bring raw meat back to Hong Kong.

There were photographs showing raw red meat, raw chicken, eggs and packaged egg products, along with the penalties for bringing them into Hong Kong.

Just beyond the crossing, on the second floor of the port building itself, a hotpot restaurant advertised its fresh beef for sale at 8am, 12pm and 4pm, and it was packed with about 20 shoppers from Hong Kong.

It had raw oxtail and brisket, with signs offering to blanch and vacuum-pack the meat free of charge for customers wishing to take it away.

A group of people took turns to grab three pairs of tongs to pick out blanched briskets from a big pot. It did not take long for all the briskets to be snapped up.

Another shop in the same building attracted a crowd for its raw dumplings and wontons going at HK$22 a dozen, 2.5 times cheaper than in Hong Kong.

Susan Leung*, 64, a school janitor, said she knew of the recent customs enforcement, but was not too troubled by it.

Using a pair of tongs to choose a piece of beef brisket, she said shopping for groceries in Shenzhen had become part of her weekly routine since the border reopened after the Covid-19 pandemic.

From her home in Fanling, it took only 16 minutes to cross the border at Liantang Port.

She bought 1kg of oxtail for HK$110, 3kg of beef brisket for HK$252 and two dozen dumplings for HK$44 and was pleased with her bill of about HK$400. She said she would have to fork out more than double that amount for the same items in Hong Kong.

“I just cover the meat with the vegetables and fruits in my trolley. The customs officers rarely check,” Leung said. “My husband and I don’t eat much, a weekly trip to Shenzhen is more than enough for our grocery needs.”

At the hotpot restaurant, workers told the Post the meat could be taken back to Hong Kong as long as it was blanched and they had never heard of anyone being caught.

When customers make their choice, the workers dip the oxtail or brisket in boiling water briefly to blanch the surface while leaving the meat mostly uncooked.

The Post bought some blanched oxtail. It appeared cooked on the surface, but was still pink and oozed red juices when cut, which meant it could not be brought back to Hong Kong. It was discarded.

At a Walmart in Futian, five metro stations from Liantang, raw chicken was on sale at about HK$84 per kg, about half the price of the product in Hong Kong.

The staff asked if it would be taken to Hong Kong and proceeded to blanch a bird in boiling water for nearly 12 minutes. It was not fully cooked when packed to go.

Eggs were on sale there at HK$29 for 30, about a third cheaper than in Hong Kong.

Cross-border truck driver Anthony Wong*, 56, said he enjoyed shopping for food in Shenzhen to take back to Hong Kong mainly because of the attractive prices.

He bought four packs of American grain-fed rib-eye steak at about HK44 per kg. A similar cut of beef sold at HK$89 for 8 ounces (less than 250 grams) on online shopping platform HKTVmall.

“I simply take it back to Hong Kong. They can’t catch us all,” he said, referring to the customs officers at the border.

Chim Lee, senior Asia analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Hongkongers had become familiar with shopping on the mainland and found the lower prices there attractive.

“Strong consumption across the border will certainly weigh on consumption in the city itself,” he said.

At the same time, he added, it would be hard for Hongkongers to buy all their food across the border, especially with customs controls and concerns about food safety. People would also respond to changes in the exchange rate between the yuan and Hong Kong dollar.

Between December 2023 and June 2024, the exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and yuan saw significant changes. HK$1,000 could buy 1,113 yuan last December, and it dipped to 1,050 yuan in June before rebounding to 1,090 yuan on November 2.

Senior economist Gary Ng Cheuk-yan of Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank said food prices had gone up by 5 per cent on the mainland since 2019 and 9 per cent in Hong Kong.

“This explains why Hongkongers find shopping across the border more price-competitive,” he said.

The mainland’s abundant labour force also helped keep operating costs down compared to Hong Kong.

The Department of Health, which regularly announces cases of food poisoning in the city, said it did not have data on people who fell ill after consuming illegal food imports from the mainland. The Food and Environmental Hygiene Department also could not provide such figures.

Lawmaker Chan Hoi-yan, who chairs the Legislative Council’s food safety and environmental hygiene panel, urged authorities to do more to educate shoppers about illegal food items.

“We have deterrent penalties in place, but the primary focus should be on educating the public. While customs has held press conferences and launched advertisements urging residents not to break the law, there are still many other actions that can be taken,” she said.

Many residents were misled by mainland sellers into believing that they could bring blanched meat into Hong Kong, she said, adding this needed to be addressed through promotions or education campaigns including over social media.

“The messages should not just tell people it is illegal, but also highlight specific scenarios, such as informing them that raw dumplings cannot be brought back to Hong Kong because there is raw meat in them,” she said.

Referring to border practices in Taiwan and Australia, she said Hong Kong could have announcements that repeated warnings, with big garbage bins for people to toss their illegal food items before entering the city.

“Bringing home partially cooked meat carries the risk of spoilage, particularly if it sits for an extended period before consumption. If a substantial amount is bought and eaten by the entire family, there is a risk of widespread foodborne illness,” she added.

Family doctor Edward Lam Wing-wo said any raw meat transported for a long time could absorb other substances and allow various microorganisms to grow.

“When it is brought back to Hong Kong, even if it is cooked, the meat may have already been breeding bacteria for some time. This can lead to a high risk of gastroenteritis,” he said.

In reply to the Post, the customs department warned that it would continue to act against those who brought raw meat back to Hong Kong.

The Food and Environmental Hygiene Department said detection dogs were deployed at land border control points to help law enforcement officers combat the illegal import of regulated food items.

Over at Shek Wu Hui market in Sheung Shui, Hong Kong butcher Cheng Kin-sun, 47, was not too bothered by the trend of residents shopping for cheaper meat products across the border.

This was something people had started doing way before the pandemic, and the trend had only “a slight impact” on local butchers.

“I believe that those who buy groceries across the border are only a small proportion,” he said. “I am expecting an increase in business during the coming winter season because many people will buy fresh meat for hotpot, as blanched meat from the mainland is not ideal.”

*Names changed at interviewees’ request

How Indonesia is going its own way on Beijing, Brics and the South China Sea

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284927/how-indonesia-going-its-own-way-beijing-brics-and-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed

In just one week, two encounters in different parts of the world showed the balance Indonesia is trying to strike between its strategic and economic interests.

In the Russian city of Kazan, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono was doing the diplomatic rounds to promote Jakarta’s bid to become a full member of Brics, a China-backed bloc of emerging economies.

Thousands of kilometres away in the South China Sea, Indonesian patrol ships were driving away Chinese coastguard vessels in waters where the countries have overlapping maritime claims.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will perform that balancing act again later this month when he visits Beijing on a multistop trip to raise Jakarta’s international standing.

Observers say there are good reasons for both China and Indonesia to compartmentalise different issues in the relationship.

The main source of friction is the oil and gas-rich Natuna Islands off northern Borneo.

The two countries do not have a formal territorial dispute but China’s sweeping nine-dash line claim to the South China cuts into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zones near the islands, and Chinese vessels regularly intrude into what Indonesia designates as the North Natuna Sea.

Late last month, Indonesia’s coastguard said it escorted out for the third time in a week a Chinese counterpart vessel that “disrupted” oil and gas exploration activity in the waters. The Chinese foreign ministry said its coastguard was on patrol in waters under China’s jurisdiction.

At the same time, Jakarta is eyeing the opportunities that Brics membership could bring. Brics – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as well as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates – accounts for a quarter of the global economy.

Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest country by population and the largest economy in Southeast Asia.

Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University’s public policy and global affairs programme, said joining Brics offered Indonesia both economic and strategic possibilities.

“This fits into Indonesia’s economic and development growth which is to focus on eliminating poverty and attracting investments and technology transfers,” Loh said.

“What is more, Indonesia has also made a bigger play in touting itself as a leader, if not one of the key leaders, of the Global South. And Brics is precisely one such platform to pursue Indonesia’s ‘free and active’ foreign policy.”

Shafiah Muhibat, deputy executive director for research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia, said one issue in its ties with China was unlikely to affect the other.

“Indonesia has been trying to put its relationship with China into different compartments – political security relations and economic relations, maintaining these two parallels and not to let them impact each other,” she said.

“So whatever happens in our political security relations should not impact negatively on our economic relations.”

Yohanes Sulaiman, associate professor in International Relations at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani in west Java, agreed, saying Indonesian authorities were testing the waters with the Chinese vessels in the Natunas.

“Considering Prabowo is building his reputation based on being strong and willing to defend Indonesia, I suspect the feeling in the navy and coastguard is to see how far they can push and set this as a precedent,” he said.

Previous Indonesian leaders, such as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Joko Widodo, steered clear of direct confrontations with China and downplayed bilateral disputes, he added.

Keeping a lid on those confrontations and bringing Indonesia closer into the Brics fold would also work in favour of China and the other members of Brics, which the West has seen as a threat, according to Radityo Dharmaputra, an international relations lecturer at the University of Airlangga in Surabaya.

“For Brics, again, it will be a good idea to have a wider membership, including Southeast Asia, where independence and neutrality have been the norms for many years,” he said.

That wider membership dovetailed with the ambitions of sanctions-hit Russia to boost its own influence on the world stage, said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at the Renmin University of China.

“Russia relies more heavily on Brics and other international organisations that do not include the US to counter Western sanctions, and the membership expansion will also boost China’s global influence. Therefore, Indonesia’s bid for membership aligns with the interests of both Russia and China,” Wang said.

But Jakarta’s pursuit of Brics membership should not be seen as an alignment with a specific group, particularly with Prabowo skipping the Kazan gathering.

Sulaiman said Indonesia was not gravitating towards China even though it might look so, and Prabowo’s absence was a clear indication that Jakarta did not want a commitment that would come at the cost of its relationships with Western partners.

“Indonesia is not going to choose a side any time soon, not only due to its non-alignment principle but the fact that in choosing a side, the fear is that we may be dragged into conflicts that we don’t want,” he said.

Jakarta’s bid to join Brics is one of Prabowo’s first major initiatives under his “good neighbour” foreign policy. According to the Indonesian president, “a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many”.

Radityo said Prabowo was using Brics as a platform to pursue a global power position for Jakarta.

“This is Prabowo’s way of stamping his authority and views of high-profile diplomacy and wanting to be seen together with major leaders. In that case, Brics is a perfect forum,” he said.

“But Jakarta still wants to reassure other countries – mostly Western - that it is not against them,” he said.

To that end, his trip this month will also include stops in the United States, Peru, Brazil and Britain, Indonesian newspaper Kompas reported.

Yeremia Lalisang, an international relations lecturer at the University of Indonesia, noted that Indonesia might be waiting for “a better proposal” from Washington, indicating that the Brics membership bid might be a hint to the West.

“I do not believe that Indonesia will join Brics that fast. I think Prabowo still wants to wait for his visit to the United States to see whether the United States can offer him a better proposal.

“Indonesia always wants to be friends with everyone in the room. If the negotiations process [of Brics] is going smoothly, then we [can see] the next move for Indonesia to strengthen its partnership with the United States as well.”

Rich China rising star Esther Yu famous for playful fashion choices forges independent path

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/china-personalities/article/3284613/rich-china-rising-star-esther-yu-famous-playful-fashion-choices-forges-independent-path?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese actress Esther Yu Shuxin, who is known for her playful personality and bold fashion choices, pursued her passion for acting despite coming from a privileged background.

The 28-year-old was born in Shanghai to a wealthy family – her father a mining magnate and her grandfather the head of a steel corporation – with an estimated family net worth of 40 billion yuan (US$5.6 billion), according to Chinese digital news outlet QQ News.

By the age of 15, Yu reportedly had a personal net worth of more 40 million yuan (US$5.6 million) and owned five companies by 25.

However, Yu chose to follow her acting dreams independently, starting with smaller roles.

In 2016, she made her TV debut in the martial arts drama Border Town Prodigal, playing a supporting role as a female detective.

Yu rose to fame in 2020 through the mainland idol survival show Youth With You Season 2, which racked up 2.3 billion views on iQIYI, a leading Chinese streaming platform.

During her debut on the show, Yu carried a limited-edition Chanel diamond bag worth 220,000 yuan (US$31,000).

After watching another contestant’s impressive performance, she exclaimed “wow” with wide eyes and an open mouth, a reaction that turned her into an instant internet sensation, inspiring a wave of viral memes.

Yu’s sweet voice and genuine charm have earned her a massive following.

With 3.4 million Instagram followers, she enjoys strong fan support across Japan, South Korea and wider Southeast Asia.

One online user from the Philippines said: “I love Yu’s expressive face. She may not be the best singer or dancer, but she is definitely the most charismatic.”

Yu secured second place in Youth With You Season 2, earning a spot in the Chinese temporary idol group The9.

In 2022, she played Orchid, a plant fairy, in the mainland hit fantasy romance drama Love Between Fairy and Devil.

While some praised her energetic performance, others criticised it as too shallow and not natural.

A year later, Yu took on a more serious role in a martial arts TV series My Journey To You, portraying a cold and skilled female spy.

The part depicted a sharp departure from her usual cheerful persona, and the mainland media praised her for showing growth and dedication to her acting.

Yu’s bold and creative fashion sense also turns heads.

During a recent mainland reality show, she surprised fans by wearing a purple sleeveless cheongsam.

She also experiments with bold, colourful outfits, such as pairing neon green tops with bright orange pants, sparking high-saturation styling trends on social media.

Recently, Yu shared photos online showing her pink hair and diamond-studded attire, dubbing the look “dark Barbie.” The post has amassed more than 1 million likes.

In October, she marked her eighth year in showbiz by releasing a new song, Surge, reflecting on her journey as an actress.

She wrote online: “Even when things get tough, I’ve got the courage to keep going. If I want to reach my dreams, I’ve got to burn the bridges behind me.”

An online user praised her determination, saying: “You’re so impressive! You could have relied on your family, but you chose to forge your own path. Hope your passion for acting leads to a bright future.”

Shein touted as model unicorn in China’s ‘new quality productive force’ push, IPO unclear

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3284913/shein-touted-model-unicorn-chinas-new-quality-productive-force-push-ipo-unclear?utm_source=rss_feed

State-owned media has highlighted Shein, the China-founded fast-fashion giant, as a model company reshaping the country’s garments supply chain, even as it faces uncertainties over a UK initial public offering (IPO) and slower growth overseas.

Shanghai Securities News, under the state-run Xinhua News Agency, published the first of its “Unicorn Growth Series” on Friday, with Shein as the featured company. The series is intended to emphasise the role of unicorn companies, or start-ups worth more than US$1 billion, as the vanguard of “new quality productive forces” – a term introduced by President Xi Jinping in September last year to describe productivity gains driven by technology innovation.

Shein, which sells budget clothing to a global customer base from its vast network of suppliers in the Pearl River Delta, was praised for its contribution to industry upgrading, in a report titled “The Growth Miracle of Fashion Company Shein”.

Known for its agile production model, Shein typically starts with small orders of around 100 to 200 per stock-keeping unit – a number assigned to each product for inventory purposes – then adjusts the production based on data like clicks and sales.

That on-demand production method enhances efficiency and cuts waste, according to a Shein vice-president cited in the report. As a result, the company’s excess-inventory rates have dropped to single digits, compared to an industry average of 50 per cent.

The article also featured Shein’s investment in garment production technology, such as an in-house developed glove-making machine that can complete each piece within three minutes, one-sixth of the previous production time. Suppliers frequently visit Shein’s Innovation Research Centre, where they receive training in fabric inspection, sewing, quality control and production management.

“With the help of intelligent equipment, Shein empowers small-scale apparel suppliers, facilitating their digital, smart, and standardised transformation,” reads the article.

In August 2023, Shein pledged to invest 500 million yuan (US$70.2 million) over five years in technology innovation, training support, factory establishment and services for suppliers, as a way to empower the transformation of China’s traditional apparel industry.

The company last month broke ground on a major new supply chain hub on the outskirts of southern Guangdong province, with a projected investment of 10 billion yuan.

In 2020, 2021 and 2022, Shein’s revenue surged from US$9.8 billion to US$15.7 billion and then US$22.7 billion, respectively. The company’s sales last year were nearing US$45 billion – surpassing Spanish multinational clothing firm Inditex, Zara’s parent – with net profits exceeding US$2 billion and an annual growth rate of more than 180 per cent, according to the Shanghai Securities News’ report.

Increasingly, Shein’s global success has been played up in China’s official narrative as a showcase of the country’s supply chain strength, industrial upgrading and cross-border e-commerce growth.

Still, Shein – which moved its headquarters to Singapore in 2021 – has come under increasing pressure this year from rivals like PDD Holdings’ Temu.

In the first half of 2024, Shein’s revenue totalled US$18 billion, but year-on-year growth rate slowed to 23 per cent, down from 40 per cent last year. Net profit dropped by over 70 per cent to under US$400 million, US online business publication The Information reported last week.

The weaker financial performance could add further uncertainty to Shein’s IPO plans on top of regulatory obstacles. Initially targeted for New York, Shein’s IPO has shifted to London amid pushback from US regulators. However, a listing timetable remains elusive as regulatory opposition lingers.

Shein executive chairman Donald Tang last week met several times with UK treasury officials to discuss the firm’s IPO plan, according to a Bloomberg report.

Meanwhile, Shein kicked off early Black Friday deals on October 30, marking the start of the holiday shopping season, with discounts of up to 90 per cent on more than 300,000 items.

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Trump 2.0: older, more aggressive and potentially a bigger China hawk

https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections/article/3284969/trump-20-older-more-aggressive-and-potentially-bigger-china-hawk?utm_source=rss_feed

America is heading into a general election that has been unprecedented in terms of rhetoric, surprises and the potential to alter the founding principles of US democracy. In this , the Post looks at the legacy of the departing president, Joe Biden, and the influences and policies of the two contenders, former president Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Americans, steeped in a 250-year tradition of rule of law and checks and balances, have found themselves wondering hours before the presidential election on Tuesday how the country could be on the verge of a second Donald Trump term.

A convicted felon, the only US president to be impeached twice and a candidate who will not commit to accepting a losing outcome – having tried to overturn the 2020 election – Trump is seen by some as a communications genius inspiring fervid loyalty and by others as a master of hyperbole and “alternative facts”.

In recent months, he has threatened to become a dictator “only on day one”, turn the National Guard on “evil” domestic critics and impose wholesale tariffs on imports from China, US allies and potentially all the globe’s 200-plus nations.

“The most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff,’” Trump told business leaders at the Economic Club of Chicago in October, brushing off economists who view them as a tax on average Americans.

“If I’m going to be president of this country, I’m going to put a 100, 200, 2,000 per cent tariff,” on Chinese electric vehicle imports from Mexico, he added. “We’re not going to destroy our country.”

His ardent supporters, meanwhile, question how a country they see as dominated by “corrupt” elites can oppose the leadership of a 78-year old they view as visionary, with the will and business acumen to shake up an ossified system and fight the globalisation that has left many Americans behind.

Place the Federal Reserve under political control? Undermine the constitution by running for a third term? Supporters chalk up Trump’s norm-busting claims to campaign rhetoric he could well discard in office.

Clete Willems, a lawyer who served at the National Security Council and US Trade Representative office during the Trump administration, said that the “America first” candidate seeks to restructure what he sees as a badly outdated trading system.

Under World Trade Organization rules, the US, with average tariffs of around 3.5 per cent, can only raise them minimally, Willems noted, while developing countries like India at 18 per cent can raise theirs to around 50 per cent.

“Imagine any of you walking into the Oval Office talking to President Trump and saying, ‘this system makes sense’,” said Willems, now a partner at law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. “I think you go to a question of trying to open up other markets, trying to use tariffs as leverage.”

Among Trump’s legacies from his 2017-2021 term – in addition to a massive tax cut skewed to the wealthy, a rollback of environmental protections and a decidedly mixed handling of the Covid-19 pandemic – was Washington’s China policy.

“The Trump administration left an enduring impact on US discourse on and policy toward China,” said Ali Wyne, a senior researcher and analyst on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

While some of this shift on China was already under way in Washington, Trump’s acute political antennae and protectionist instincts helped decisively reverse a decades-long US view that engagement would benefit both sides and lead to greater Chinese openness and pluralism.

That has been replaced by a pronounced slide into distrust, “de-risking” US exposure to China and intense competition supported by both political parties and public opinion.

During the 2020 election campaign, Trump’s Democratic opponent Joe Biden sharply criticised the huge tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods as a tax on Americans. Once elected, however, US President Biden left most of those tariffs untouched, added new export bans on sensitive technology and doubled down on an allies-and-partners strategy to counter China.

Noting the growing bipartisan agreement on diversifying supply chains away from China, Willems called Trump’s trade policies a work in progress.

“President Trump is throwing a lot of ideas on the table,” he said. “Sometimes it’s sort of to get a reaction, also sometimes to start a dynamic for a negotiation.”

Trump’s long-standing love affair with tariffs dates back to the 1980s when he was a real estate developer in New York, touting them as a way to eliminate US trade deficits. “I am a tariff man,” he tweeted in 2018 as president. “MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN.”

If Trump returns to the White House and makes good on his vow to impose 60 per cent tariffs on imports from China and 10 per cent on those from all other countries, the US would bear the cost, said Christine McDaniel, formerly with the White House Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration.

“A go-it-alone trade war would hurt the US the most, while others – including China – would likely benefit,” McDaniel, now a senior fellow at the Mercatus Centre, said.

Regardless of whether Trump or his Democratic opponent, US Vice-President Kamala Harris, is elected, few analysts expect greatly improved US-China relations.

But some see a modestly better chance under Trump – citing his penchant for sudden turnarounds, admiration for strongmen and the influence corporate leaders like billionaire Elon Musk could have on his thinking.

“Trump is unpredictable and contrarian. He sees himself as being the master of the deal,” said Sarah Kreps, a Cornell University law professor and director of the Brookings Institution’s Tech Policy Institute. “All of this could point to a world where Trump makes an overture to improve relations with China.

“I would put that at low probability, but non-zero, compared to a Harris administration where we have no reason to think that there would be a departure from the last four years.”

Trump’s support for authoritarian states and sharp criticism of US democracy goes back decades.

“They put it down with strength,” he told Playboy magazine in 1990, speaking about the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown. “That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak … as being spit on by the rest of the world.”

Trump’s path to politics has been nothing if not unconventional.

The fourth of five children, he was born into a wealthy real estate family in New York City on June 14, 1946.

In 1968, he received a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School before taking over his father’s real estate firm three years later. In subsequent years, he focused on glitzy skyscrapers, hotels, casinos and golf courses in major markets over his father’s residential projects in the New York borough of Queens.

A series of business failures in the 1990s and early 2000s was tied to overleveraged hotel and casino properties, but he used the bankruptcy code, courts and rescheduled bank loans to stay afloat. By some counts, he and his businesses have been plaintiffs or defendants in more than 3,000 legal actions.

Along the way, the relentless self-promoter turned to licensing, slapping his surname on scores of items, from resorts and steaks to sneakers and vodka. Many ventures failed.

A big break on Trump’s road to the presidency came in 2004 when he became host of “The Apprentice”, a reality competition on the NBC network that greatly expanded his name recognition and bolstered his reputation as a successful businessman, eventually helping to propel his surprise win against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.

A key question if Trump is re-elected is how similar his China policy would be to his presidency – or if his campaign pledges are largely a populist response to a tight race in battleground states.

“There’s a clear electoral motivation to push this narrative that Trump would stick it to China, so that it was financially attractive to bring manufacturing back to the rust belt,” Kreps said.

“But it’s also important to point out that China is in a different place now than four years ago, much less globally ambitious as its economic and demographic conditions have changed and put China more on the defensive.”

Trump’s mercurial actions – and Beijing’s calculated responses – were on ample display even before his presidency. Weeks before taking office, Trump took a congratulatory call from then- Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the first such contact involving a US president or president-elect since formal US-China relations were normalised in 1979.

China was not amused but remained relatively muted to avoid starting relations off on the wrong foot, analysts said.

This was followed by a relatively warm period, with Trump characterising Chinese President Xi Jinping as “outstanding” and a “very special man” during their two meetings in 2017.

But Trump soon launched the trade war that would define his term, imposing tariffs on some US$380 billion in Chinese imports in 2018 and 2019. This followed claims that China was “ripping off” America and his deal-making would quickly force Beijing to open its markets and end intellectual property theft.

“Trade wars are good, and easy to win,” he said in March 2018 on introducing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium.

When China failed to yield, however, matching his protectionist moves with its own, he pivoted, explaining in August 2019: “I never said China was going to be easy.”

As his 2020 re-election bid intensified, Trump announced a “historic” trade deal with Beijing meant to ensure that China would purchase US$200 billion in additional US exports by the end of 2021.

This did not happen. “The only undisputed ‘historical’ aspect of this agreement was its failure,” the non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics wrote in a 2022 assessment, noting that Chinese purchases of US goods did not reach even 2017 levels. “Was the trade war worth it for US exporters? The answer so far is no.”

As the Covid-19 pandemic spread and his administration drew criticism for mishandling the crisis, Trump blamed China, including racially tinged references to the “China virus” and “kung flu” that fuelled anti-Chinese racism and attacks against Asian-Americans.

Under Trump, the US Justice Department also introduced a China Initiative aimed at prosecuting perceived Chinese spies in American industry and research. The programme was blasted by Asian-American groups as an exercise in racial profiling that destroyed careers, and it was subsequently abandoned by Biden.

As this year’s campaign winds down, the polarising billionaire continues to dominate headlines, after surviving an assassination attempt in July – with a man arrested in September for an alleged second attempt – and facing a string of criminal charges he is expected to try and quash if elected.

He has already been convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a New York state court in May; sentencing is scheduled for November 26.

Trump also faces federal charges in Florida for failing to return classified documents he stored in Mar-a-Lago after leaving office. And he faces both a federal case in Washington and a state case in Georgia for interfering with the 2020 election. All those cases face delays pending resolution of his appeals.

All the while, Trump continues his open admiration for strongmen. In recent weeks, his former chief of staff John Kelly reported that Trump told him Adolph Hitler “did some good things”. And he has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as “tough” and “smart” and Xi as “a brilliant man”.

“He controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist,” he added, saying XI “makes people like Biden look like babies”.