Mistral点评

• China’s trade ‘unevenness likely to continue’ as July data offers mixed bag
• China tests drone-based cloud seeding in Xinjiang to bring rain to dry regions
• Former Legco secretary general tipped to take senior job at Chinese University of Hong Kong
• Tim Walz’s personal China history not expected to lead to big shift in US policy
• Tech war: China’s chip imports surge as firms stockpile ahead of fresh US restrictions
• China urges US to ensure Olympic athletes treated fairly at future Games
• China’s consumption drive falls on deaf ears as consumers remain cautious, ask for more
• US first, China second-to-last and US$100,000 between them in diplomatic pay rankings
• China ‘sleepmakers’ for hire as youth of nation seek whimsical story cure for insomnia
• Grassland blazes are biggest source of carbon emissions from wildfires, Chinese study says
• Dubai airport sets passenger record, thanks to Indian travellers, those transiting via China
• 4 Chinese nationals, pilot killed in Nepal chopper crash
• Has China declared a truce in its struggle with private tutoring firms?
• South China Sea: Chinese military holds joint patrol around contested Scarborough Shoal
• Disgraced China kung fu master re-emerges as ‘godfather of nightclubs’ performing ‘lightning’ moves
• China’s Wang Yi calls for international community to unite behind Gaza ceasefire
• Philippines turns to maritime law for legal teeth against China
• Mainland China’s demand for warehouses plunges as Singapore’s surges: Knight Frank
• China warns citizens to leave eastern DR Congo after series of deaths and kidnappings
• Chinese-led study finds uneven melting of polar ice could lead to huge global disruption
• South China Sea: Philippines, Vietnam join forces but Hanoi policy a stumbling block?
• China’s exports miss expectations as trade tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty loom
• China says no to ‘throwing eggs’: poker-style game loved by party officials loses shine
• South China Sea: Sabina Shoal may be new hotspot as Philippines, Beijing spar over sovereignty
• China family feud locks son and parents in struggle to send each other to mental hospital
• US plans more frequent bomber deployments to Australia amid China’s ‘escalatory behaviour’
• South Korea tops China for shipbuilding orders as competition heats up
• Will China’s ‘smart political game’ in the Middle East and Ukraine pay off?
• Stock market sell-off raises concerns for China’s exports amid US recession fears
• US-China fentanyl cooperation deepens as Beijing tightens controls for precursor chemicals
• US-Australia talks focus on China’s ‘coercive behaviour’ and rising Middle East tensions
• Despite China’s diplomatic rise, US still holds key to wars in Ukraine and Gaza
• Donald Trump supporters go after Tim Walz’s China experiences
• ‘Pro-democracy activist’ convicted in US of acting as covert Chinese agent

China’s trade ‘unevenness likely to continue’ as July data offers mixed bag

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3273564/chinas-trade-unevenness-likely-continue-july-data-offers-mixed-bag?utm_source=rss_feed

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China’s exports, a major economic growth engine in the first half of the year, missed expectations and grew by only 7 per cent in July from a year earlier, to US$300.56 billion.

Analysts pointed to the impact of lower prices and some fading of global discretionary demand as the reading fell short of the expected growth of 9.5 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind. The reading was also lower than the 8.6 per cent increase in June.

“Growth in export values slowed last month, but this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes remained near record highs,” said Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics.

“After accounting for changes in export prices, and for seasonality, we estimate that export volumes softened a touch but remained close to record highs.”

More discretionary items, though, showed weakness last month with contractions in exports of furniture, handbags and suitcases, clothing and toys, said analysts at HSBC. However, electronics exports outperformed as laptops, LCD displays and mobile phones recorded pickups in year-on-year terms.

“With leading indicators like the new export orders purchasing managers’ index pointing to further weakness in global demand, combined with [Wednesday’s] miss in exports growth, we remain cautious on the global demand revival outlook,” said the analysts at HSBC.

“Some of the softer momentum in exports is not entirely unexpected, given increased trade tensions and a relative preference for services over goods for global demand.”

China’s imports beat expectations and rose to a three-month high of 7.2 per cent from a year earlier in July, compared with the 2.3 per cent decrease reported in June, with some analysts pointing to a front-loading of orders and increased fiscal policy.

They also said that the lower base for comparison played a role as imports bounced back, and that volumes did increase on a month-on-month basis.

“Imports rose more than expected last month, and we think they will pick up further in the coming months as a step-up in fiscal support should boost import-intensive construction activities,” added Huang at Capital Economics.

Some of the order front-loading, focused on electronics imports, might be due to uncertainty surrounding a possible ramp-up in trade restrictions amid reports that the United States may be looking to unveil new rules around the exports of semiconductor-making equipment, said analysts at HSBC.

“Imports were also partly buoyed by improved domestic demand, which was driven by an accelerated pace of government bond issuance in recent months,” they added. “This led to more domestic demand for key construction commodities.”

But Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said it was “fairly clear” that the electric vehicle sector continued to drive import demand, with copper and car parts seeing positive growth.

China’s technological self-sufficiency and manufacturing upgrade also drove strong demand for hi-tech imports, semiconductors and automatic-data-processing equipment, Song added.

“Overall, the details from import-product categories indicate that this recovery is not being driven by a recovery of household demand, but rather instead reflects the national strategy to drive growth through investing in hi-tech fields and innovation,” Song said.

China’s July trade surplus stood at US$84.65 billion, down from a record US$99.05 billion in June.

“China’s trade recovery appeared to lose some steam in July as exports missed expectations, while imports saw a sharper recovery, leading to a lower trade surplus of US$84.65 billion compared with the record surplus in June,” said analysts at HSBC.

In terms of trade partners, China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) rose by 12.15 per cent in July compared with a year earlier.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia accounted for the bulk of the export strength, according to Song at ING.

Shipments to the US, meanwhile, increased by 8 per cent, representing a third straight month of positive growth.

But exports to Russia decreased in July by 2.81 per cent, year on year, while shipments to the European Union rose by 7.9 per cent.

Analysts at HSBC said exports to emerging markets, including the Asean bloc, continued to be “likely driven in part by some supply-chain shifts”, with shipments to Latin America up by 13.8 per cent compared with a year earlier.

“Exports to developed markets remained weak but saw some marginal improvements over the past month as well, with a smaller contraction of exports to the EU and South Korea, and a slight acceleration of exports to the US,” Song at ING added.

Analysts offered mixed outlooks for China’s trade environment, with HSBC saying an “unevenness” in trade recovery would likely continue.

“While trade has been a welcome tailwind for growth so far this year, we see uncertainty in its ability to continue to drive forward activity,” they said.

“Instead, policymakers are turning more towards domestic demand, with a notable turn towards boosting consumption demand, particularly in services, to help shore up growth this year.”

Capital Economics expects that import volumes will further rise in the coming months.

“Leadership appears more worried about the near-term outlook, compared with a few months ago, and has signalled a step-up in fiscal spending,” Huang added.

“This is likely to boost construction activity, driving up demand for industrial commodities.”

Capital Economics also expects exports to remain strong with the yuan exchange rate “moving in exporters’ favour”.

“We expect exports to stay robust in the coming months. Although the yuan has recently appreciated against the US dollar due to a sharp drop in US-interest-rate expectations, this is unlikely to have a negative impact,” Huang said.

He said the yuan has weakened by 0.8 per cent on a trade-weighted basis over the past week, which should provide further support to exports.

China tests drone-based cloud seeding in Xinjiang to bring rain to dry regions

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3273595/china-tests-drone-based-cloud-seeding-xinjiang-bring-rain-dry-regions?utm_source=rss_feed

China has deployed a long-endurance dual-use drone in a cloud-seeding trial in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the first time the controversial practice has been carried out by an unmanned aerial vehicle in the dry western region.

The trial is being carried out with the TB-A strike and reconnaissance drone, also known as the Twin-tailed Scorpion A.

The unmanned aircraft, typically used to carry ammunition during military operations, has been loaded with silver iodide rods as part of a 45-day cloud-seeding trial that began on Sunday.

The drone is operating in the autonomous region’s easternmost city of Hami, with a focus on the Dongtian mountain area, to test its cloud-seeding capabilities in high-altitude areas, according to Communist Party-owned newspaper Xinjiang Daily.

Hami – known for a variety of sweet melon – is in one of the most water-scarce parts of China and has been hit hard by climate change, with frequent droughts and high temperatures.

The TB-A can carry as many as 24 silver iodide rods and 200 smoke grenades – both rain-inducing agents – and has been equipped with cloud particle detection and wind radar equipment for the trial, according to Xinhua.

The TB-A, developed by the civilian company Sichuan Tengden, is an upgraded version of the TB-001, a combat drone that has been deployed by the People’s Liberation Army for operations around Taiwan and Japan.

In a rare case in April of last year, a TB-001 drone circled Taiwan, with state media pictures showing missiles under its wings.

The same model was also flown in June off the coast of Amami Oshima in Japan’s Kagoshima prefecture – making it the first Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle to operate in the area.

The TB-A has three engines, compared to the two-engine TB-001, and has a higher maximum take off weight of 3,250kg (7,165lbs), higher endurance of 40 hours, and longer range of 8,000km (4,971 miles), according to the company.

While the trial was the first to take place in Xinjiang, it was not the first time for a TB-A to be used to induce rain.

A TB-A drone was sent to seed clouds in the Sichuan basin in the summer of 2022, when China was hit by a severe heatwave and the Yangtze River had dried up in parts.

The southwestern province of Yunnan also began its first cloud-seeding trial in October of last year by using a TB-A to ease droughts caused by decreased summer precipitation.

China is a leader in cloud seeding, a technology that has been controversial because of its unintended consequences, including increased pollution and excessive precipitation. Some scientists have also questioned its effectiveness.

The country launched a programme for “quality development of weather modification” in 2020 and pledged to achieve a developed weather modification system by 2025.

The National Meteorological Centre unveiled a “cloud-seeding disaster relief” action plan last year aimed at promoting the use of drones for weather modification.

China’s Wing Loong 2H, another dual-use long-endurance drone, has also been used for weather modification operations, including in the southern province of Guizhou in March.

Former Legco secretary general tipped to take senior job at Chinese University of Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3273615/former-legco-secretary-general-tipped-take-senior-job-chinese-university-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed

A former secretary general for the local legislature is tipped to serve as a vice-president at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), the Post has learned, after the previous incumbent was sacked by the institution’s governing council last December.

A source from the university’s governing council said a search committee had contacted Kenneth Chen Wei-on, with the body to make a final decision on the appointment.

The former Legislative Council secretary general’s work experience in leading a public body and crisis management experience was considered a match for the requirements of the senior management position at the publicly funded university, the insider said.

Chen, 59, had held the Legco role since 2012 and began his pre-retirement leave last Thursday. He also previously served as the city’s deputy education minister from 2008 to 2012.

“Both roles are from the public bodies rather than commercial companies and require the incumbent to take extra care in terms of procedure and how to spend public money properly,” the insider said.

A CUHK spokeswoman did not confirm Chen was tipped for the role of vice-president, but said the university was currently looking for someone to take on the administrative role.

“The new appointment will be announced after the candidates are finalised in accordance with current procedures,” she said.

The position at the university became vacant last December after the governing council fired Eric Ng Shui-pui with immediate effect. CUHK currently has five other vice-president positions.

CUHK council chairman John Cha Yat-chiu said at the time that the body was no longer confident of Ng’s ability and willingness to support the institution’s work.

Ng previously signed a petition against a proposal by three lawmakers to restructure the council, which was eventually approved and included increasing the number of external members in the body.

During his time as vice-president of the administration and the council’s secretary, he was accused of sending out a meeting agenda without the chairman’s consent.

Ng expressed his “extreme regret” over the council’s decision to sack him and said he was not given an opportunity to respond to the allegations during the university’s investigation.

A month later, university president Rocky Tuan Sung-chi announced he would resign from his role as the head of CUHK, just days after starting a new three-year term.

Tuan also acknowledged Ng’s work in his blog and said he possessed rich experience in the local and UK tertiary education systems, while wishing him every success in the future.

Chen’s past experience also includes serving as a director of the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s racecourse business, before he joined the government in 2008 as a deputy minister.

While serving as Legco’s secretary general in 2019, he faced calls to resign by the opposition camp over accusations he had exceeded the powers of his office by helping the pro-Beijing bloc to oust an opposition lawmaker from their role as chairman of a panel vetting a controversial extradition bill.

The bill was later scrapped after it triggered months-long anti-government demonstrations.

Chen at the time said his decision was based on the legislature’s rule book and conventions.

His academic qualifications include a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Princeton University, a master’s in applied mathematics from Harvard University and another in business administration from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

Tim Walz’s personal China history not expected to lead to big shift in US policy

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273614/tim-walzs-personal-china-history-not-expected-lead-big-shift-us-policy?utm_source=rss_feed

Kamala Harris’s running mate Tim Walz is expected to adopt a tough stance towards Beijing on the campaign trail despite his long history with the country, Chinese observers have said.

However, they said that this reflected the current political climate in the United States, and it was hard to tell whether it would have any effect on policy or lead to better relations if the Democrats win November’s election.

Harris, who has formally secured the Democratic presidential nomination, announced on Tuesday that the Minnesota governor would be her running mate.

She has been closing in on Donald Trump in the polls since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, and the choice was seen primarily as an effort to win over voters in Midwestern swing states and shore up the “blue wall” in the party’s traditional heartlands.

But Walz’s selection has also shone a spotlight on his extensive personal links to China, raising questions about how that might help shape a potential Harris administration’s approach to Beijing.

“We don’t have information as to whether or not either Mr Walz’s views on US policies toward China or his experiences living in China factored in the selection of him as Vice-President Harris’s running mate,” said Zha Daojiong, a professor of international studies at Peking University. “It would be futile to speculate, too.”

He predicted that concerns about Chinese exports and their impact on US domestic industries are likely to feature heavily in the campaign, while the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to be a more immediate foreign policy concern.

However, Zha said the next administration might “continue the course” adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations towards China.

Walz spent around a year teaching in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong in 1989 and 1990 as part of Harvard University’s WorldTeach programme.

He and his wife later spent their honeymoon in China and until 2003 ran an exchange programme that took students to China every summer. He can still converse in Mandarin, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Before becoming governor of Minnesota, he served in Congress between 2007 and 2019 and has been critical of China over issues such as human rights.

As a member of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, he met the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, and the Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong Chi-fung.

But his connections with China have already seen him targeted by Trump supporters, some of whom have suggested he could be a Communist Party agent.

Diao Daming, a professor specialising in US politics at Renmin University in Beijing, also thought that Walz would adopt a hardline approach during the campaign given the consensus within Washington.

“Whether or not this hard line will become policy if [Walz and Harris] are elected, it’s hard for us to tell,” he said.

Diao said he hoped that Walz’s experience of China would give him a “rational” understanding of the country and that he would push forward positive exchanges if elected.

“But it’s not a certainty,” he said. “Having such China experience does not mean he is necessarily going to be positive or negative towards China.”

Lu Xiang, a US-China relations specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said that it was “too early” to talk about the potential impact of US election candidates’ personal experiences.

“I don’t think their China policy depends on their past experiences, I think it still depends on the American perception of their own economic status,” he said.

Lu argued that China will not be a major topic in the US presidential race. He said the Democrats had not benefited politically from their stances on Ukraine or the Middle East and the Harris-Walz campaign was likely to focus overwhelmingly on domestic issues.

Zhu Junwei, director of the Centre for American Studies at the Beijing-based think tank Grandview Institution, also said it would be hard for Walz to make any difference on China-US relations if elected.

“However, it would be better if such a person, with rich experience in exchanges with China, took office rather than having someone who knows nothing about China,” she said.

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Tech war: China’s chip imports surge as firms stockpile ahead of fresh US restrictions

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3273606/tech-war-chinas-chip-imports-surge-firms-stockpile-ahead-fresh-us-restrictions?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s semiconductor imports continue to expand, according to the country’s latest customs data, amid reports mainland enterprises are rushing to stockpile integrated circuits (ICs) ahead of potential new restrictions on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips by the United States.

In the first seven months of 2024, chip imports totalled 308.1 billion units, worth about US$212 billion, according to data published on Wednesday by the General Administration of Customs. That marked a 14.5 per cent year-on-year jump in volume and 11.5 per cent increase in dollar value.

The surge in IC imports reflects expectations that the US will impose fresh unilateral restrictions on the mainland’s access to HBMs, which a Reuters report on Tuesday described as the impetus for mainland Big Tech firms – including Huawei Technologies and Baidu – to stockpile such chips made by Samsung Electronics.

A recent Bloomberg report said those US measures could be rolled out as soon as next month. HBM chips – typically bundled with artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, such as graphics processing units from Nvidia – are indispensable components for building large language models, the technology underpinning generative AI services such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

That scramble for chips has resulted in mainland China accounting for 30 per cent of Samsung’s HBM revenue in the first half of this year, according to the Reuters report.

China’s total IC imports in 2023 was valued at US$349 billion, down 15.4 per cent from 2022.

Customs data also showed that mainland semiconductor exports from January to July reached 166.6 billion units, up 10.3 per cent from a year earlier. Total value during that period rose 22.5 per cent year on year to US$90 billion.

China’s IC exports reflected strong overseas demand for so-called legacy chips that are widely used in cars, home appliances and various consumer electronics products. In July alone, IC exports reached 27.3 billion units worth US$13.9 billion, according to the customs data.

That increase comes amid a recovery in consumer electronics products, including smartphones. Global smartphone shipments expanded 12 per cent in the June quarter, according to data from market research firm Canalys.

If Washington enacts new semiconductor restrictions, its rules are expected to cover memory chips categorised as HBM2 and more advanced iterations that include HBM3 and HBM3E, as well as the tools required to make these products, according to the Bloomberg report.

China, however, has doubled down on efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in its semiconductor industry by creating the country’s largest-ever chip investment fund, disregarding mounting pressure from US tech sanctions.

The third phase of the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, also known as the “Big Fund”, was established in May with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan (US$48.2 billion).

China urges US to ensure Olympic athletes treated fairly at future Games

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273611/china-urges-us-ensure-olympic-athletes-treated-fairly-future-games?utm_source=rss_feed

China has urged the United States to fulfil its commitments and cease “long-arm jurisdiction” practices to ensure the smooth and safe participation of athletes from all countries when it hosts future Games.

“China supports the US in hosting both the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics and the Salt Lake City 2034 Winter Games,” said Gao Zhidan, head of the nation’s sport administration and chairman of the Chinese Olympic Committee, speaking to his US counterpart Gene Sykes in Paris on Tuesday.

“However, it is essential that the US ensures a safe and smooth competition environment for all athletes, including those from China. This requires a commitment to stopping any ‘long-arm jurisdiction’,” said Gao, according to the official China Sports News.

He emphasised the shared responsibility of both nations to maintain the principles of the Olympic Charter, defend the global anti-doping governance system, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of “clean athletes”, according to the Chinese report.

In response, Sykes congratulated Chinese athletes on their impressive performance at the Olympics and affirmed the role of sports in promoting people-to-people exchanges and mutual understanding between China and the US, the report said.

Sykes was quoted as saying he supported the establishment of “a robust governance system” by the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) and promised to actively promote the resolution of related issues, “creating a favourable environment” for athletes from around the world, including those from China, to train and compete in the US.

The conversation came as a doping scandal involving Chinese swimmers at the Paris Olympics has escalated tensions between the US and China.

Wada has also faced criticism for its handling of positive drug tests.

Before the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, 23 Chinese swimmers tested positive for trimetazidine (TMZ), a heart medication that can boost performance. But these athletes were cleared to compete after Wada accepted the Chinese Anti-Doping Agency’s assertion that they were contaminated through food.

Some of these swimmers have returned to compete in Paris, leading to allegations of a cover-up by Wada and the Chinese authorities.

US Anti-Doping Agency (Usada) chief Travis Tygart has been a vocal critic of the move, accusing Wada of failing to conduct independent investigations and covering up findings related to the cases.

Wada has rejected the accusations as defamatory and continues to assert its commitment to combating doping in sports.

“As we have seen over recent months, Wada has been unfairly caught in the middle of geopolitical tensions between superpowers but has no mandate to participate in that,” the organisation said in a statement on July 30.

Tensions heightened further when US lawmakers threatened to reduce funding to Wada unless it took stronger action against doping violations.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) warned on Wednesday that failure to support Wada’s leadership could jeopardise the Los Angeles and Salt Lake City Games.

The IOC included an amendment in the host city contract for Salt Lake City, which was awarded the 2034 Winter Olympics late last month, stating that the Olympic host agreement could be revoked “if the supreme authority of Wada in anti-doping efforts is not fully respected or if the enforcement of the anti-doping code is obstructed or compromised”.

Back in Paris, some American, British and Australian athletes and coaches have expressed concerns about the integrity of the competition, while Chinese officials have criticised what they perceive as a double standard in how doping allegations are directed against Chinese athletes compared with their American counterparts.

According to World Aquatics, the global governing authority, Chinese swimmers underwent the highest number of anti-doping tests before the Paris Olympics, averaging 21 tests per athlete – nearly four times the number taken by their American counterparts.

Chinese athletes have also expressed concerns about how these tests have impacted their performance during the Paris Games.

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China’s consumption drive falls on deaf ears as consumers remain cautious, ask for more

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3273563/chinas-consumption-drive-falls-deaf-ears-consumers-remain-cautious-ask-more?utm_source=rss_feed

An elusive solution to China’s weak consumption has been weighing on policymakers as Beijing banks on increased spending for future economic growth amid subdued external demand.

Despite a raft of policies and pledges, Chinese consumers, haunted by cloudy economic prospects and reduced income, remain reluctant to spend unless there are obvious benefits.

The State Council released a 20-point directive at the weekend, vowing to increase support for nursing care, consider an extension of visa-free entries for more countries and encourage “low-altitude tourism” to spur spending on services, a sector that is growing faster than goods.

China has also allocated around 300 billion yuan (US$42 billion) worth of ultra-long-term special government bonds to support industrial-equipment upgrades and a consumer goods trade-in programme – a programme analysts argue would play a crucial role in stabilising China’s economy in the second half of the year.

However, consumers who are growing increasingly cautious about spending their hard-earned money, remain unimpressed.

“No measure is good unless it gives me money,” half-jokingly said Beijing-based paralegal Guo Yijia.

Guo had considered the home appliances trade-in programme, but it does not seem to be a great deal, with her old washing machine only worth a small amount on online retailer JD, and her air conditioner installer offering a larger discount.

“For instance, if social welfare, such as benefits that cover medical and maternity insurance, improves, and I can feel like I don’t have concerns, I would be more willing to spend.”

Guo saw her income fall by half after switching careers, and has cut back her expenses in the past years, making coffee at home and buying cheaper clothes online.

Amy Wang, an entrepreneur in the outdoor activities industry based in Shanghai, also said the measures released in dribs and drabs had zero effect on her.

“Only when I am making more money would I be willing to spend more,” she said.

Wang added that her income has been slashed due to the slump in the investment market, forcing her to cut discretionary spending and to start taking public transport.

As people reduce spending, consumer industries have lowered their prices and launched budget-friendly options, such as the “poor man’s meal” – a term that has gained traction online among young adults, as it refers to the cheapest and the most basic menus in restaurants.

China’s 4.7 per cent economic growth in the second quarter has made the annual growth target of around 5 per cent more precarious, with growth levels in retail sales and fixed-asset investments, as well as real estate investment, continuing to disappoint.

And despite the repeated determination vowed by Beijing, including in the Politburo’s midyear economic review that underlined consumption as a focus in expanding domestic demand, business and consumer confidence has remained tenuous.

Beijing-based analyst Joe Zhou said although his income has not been affected by the overwhelming economic downturn, he has become increasingly cautious about spending and has avoided advance consumption due to weakened expectations.

He bought a car a few months ago, but he viewed the purchase as essential as a newlywed.

“The incentives didn’t fall on me,” he said.

US first, China second-to-last and US$100,000 between them in diplomatic pay rankings

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273474/us-first-china-second-last-and-us100000-between-them-diplomatic-pay-rankings?utm_source=rss_feed

American efforts to blunt China’s global influence might be yielding mixed results, but on the issue of compensation, Washington pays its home-based diplomats the best among 16 G20 countries with Beijing placing second to last, a study has found.

The report released on Wednesday by International Intrigue, a media company created by former Australian diplomats, compared salaries of recently promoted mid-level diplomats working at their headquarters, adjusted for purchasing-power parity.

In the grouping of major countries, the US paid its diplomats US$140,000 per year.

Brazil, South Africa, France and Germany rounded out the top five, while China and Indonesia brought up the rear with salaries of US$41,000 and $34,000 respectively. Asian countries, including India, comprised five of the bottom eight analysed.

However, when ranked by how much salaries differed from the local median, India came out on top and the US slipped to third. China still placed near the bottom at 12.

The survey’s specific diplomatic profile was chosen to ensure a common base of comparison and limit variables like the perks that may come with overseas postings, according to Jeremy Dicker, John Fowler and Helen Zhang, the report’s authors.

Their findings reflected interviews with diplomats, employee-union documents as well as open-source material like graduate-recruitment campaigns, online forums and presidential and ministerial decrees.

High inflation in Argentina and Turkey led to their omission from the analysis. Russia was excluded owing to inflation and its geopolitical reputation following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

While people generally did not join their country’s foreign service for the pay, it was a major reason for their departure, the authors said. The potential loss of top talent was concerning in light of the number of active conflicts globally, they added.

As of 2023, there were 59 state-based armed conflicts around the world, the highest number since at least 1975, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme at Sweden’s Uppsala University.

Paul Sharp of the University of Minnesota Duluth, whose research focuses on diplomacy, said changing attitudes towards compensation had made it more relevant to diplomatic recruitment.

“In the past, the opportunity to represent one’s country was seen as more important than money,” Sharp explained. “But then you only got people to serve who didn’t need money – not good in a democratic age.”

“Now the pursuit of money is seen as important, almost honourable, and so competitive salaries are viewed as important by members of the recruitment pool.”

In the US, lucrative alternatives to a diplomatic career abound.

“If you’ve got somebody who’s talented enough to get into the foreign service, they’re also talented enough to get a job with McKinsey or Deloitte or Goldman Sachs, and the salary difference between Goldman Sachs and the State Department is huge,” said Stephen Kelly, a former American diplomat who helped State Department recruit.

Kelly, who retired in 2010 after serving in several G20 countries including Indonesia and Canada, said he had not observed an instance of a colleague leaving the foreign service because of money. But he noted it was costly to replace those who exited.

“It’s very expensive to train diplomats,” Kelly explained. “In the case of the US, usually, by the time you get to be a mid-rank officer, you’ve been training in language, area studies, a lot of money has been invested in you.”

In terms of absolute expenditure on diplomacy, the US also outpaces China. In the 2023 fiscal year, Washington spent about US$61.5 billion in discretionary funding on diplomatic engagement and foreign assistance.

In contrast, Beijing spent 57.031 billion yuan (US$7.99 billion) on diplomacy in 2023, an increase from the previous year but still shy of its pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.

Yet even with its better-paid diplomats and larger budget, the State Department had on average 13 per cent of its positions unfilled, according to Richard Verma, US deputy secretary of state for management and resources, in April.

And at a congressional hearing last week, Senate Foreign Relations committee chairman Ben Cardin, Democrat of Maryland, cited 20 countries in which China had an ambassador and the US did not.

Claus Soong of the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a Berlin-based think tank, said China’s low salary ranking did not necessarily reflect how it prioritised diplomacy nor would it likely deter young talent from entering the foreign service.

“Now, under China’s economic downturn, more people want to get into the government because it’s stable,” said Soong.

Signs have emerged that China is retaining a focus on diplomacy despite its inward-looking policies.

Earlier this year, the Post reported that China’s diplomats abroad got a rare pay rise. In addition, Chinese officials stationed overseas were excluded from a move announced last year to reduce staff numbers by 5 per cent across party and state organisations.

These developments followed a Chinese Communist Party meeting in December on the country’s foreign-policy direction in which President Xi Jinping urged diplomats and cadres to “break new ground”, “rally the overwhelming majority” of the world and maintain a “fighting spirit”.

It remains to be seen how effectively Beijing’s efforts translate into actual influence.

The US is viewed more favourably than not, according to a 2024 survey from the Pew Research Centre, based on the median response from 34 countries.

China, on the other hand, was viewed more unfavourably than not, according to a 35-country median, based on a separate Pew survey from this year.

But when comparing China and the US only across low-income countries, favourability ratings for the two countries were more similar.

Regardless, experts and former diplomats contend there is no substitute for investment in diplomacy, especially for middle management.

“Professional diplomats set up the high-profile stuff and keep channels open when governments don’t want to be seen as talking for policy and political reasons,” said Sharp.

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China ‘sleepmakers’ for hire as youth of nation seek whimsical story cure for insomnia

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3273517/china-sleepmakers-hire-youth-nation-seek-whimsical-story-cure-insomnia?utm_source=rss_feed

Sleep-deprived China has witnessed the emergence of a unique profession that charges insomniacs for assistance in falling asleep.

So-called sleepmakers try to induce slumber with soothing conversations and emotional support before bedtime.

They cater to young adults struggling with the demanding “996” culture – working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week – marriage stress, and other life pressures.

Part-time sleepmaker, Taozi, who has a stable job with a modest salary, turned to the practice to supplement her income after experiencing the benefits of the services herself.

She told Guangzhou Daily that she used sleep services to manage the anxiety triggered by seeing her peers in her hometown marry and start families.

“Discussing personal problems that are difficult to share with friends and family with a stranger might be the best way to clear out emotional garbage. Once this emotional garbage is taken care of, people tend to sleep better,” Taozi said.

After becoming a sleepmaker, Taozi joined a group chat where she could accept orders during her free time, sharing profits with the platform.

“Sleepmakers are categorised into levels on the platform, such as gold and chief, with higher tiers earning more. A chief sleepmaker can earn up to 260 yuan (US$36) an hour, while a full-time sleepmaker can earn up to 30,000 yuan (US$4,200) a month, plus tips,” Taozi added.

Most of Taozi’s clients are young adults born in the 1990s and 2000s.

They seek a listening ear and emotional support to navigate life’s challenges.

Her service comes to an end when the client falls asleep.

Taozi said that she struggles with her sleep because the hours are, obviously, sleep related.

Sleepmakers operate on and offline.

One online practitioner known as “Sevenseven7”, who boasts over 2.6 million followers on Douyin, is known for her imaginative bedtime stories.

In one of her most popular videos titled, “Little Pig Boiling Medicine”, which attracted 480,000 likes, she tells a whimsical tale of a little pig who falls ill and visits a doctor.

“There was a cute little pig that suddenly fell ill and went to see a doctor. The doctor prescribed some medicine and told the pig to boil it for 1,000 seconds, but the pig fell asleep while boiling it.

“When the pig wakes up, it discovers that 1,001 seconds have passed. In a panic, the pig shouted, ‘The medicine is burned!’ Yao shui jiao le in Mandarin, which sounds like ‘It’s time to sleep’.”

This play on words has drawn interest from her audience, who have dubbed her videos “modern new drugs”.

“Hearing sweet stories makes me a sweet boy,” one online observer said.

Grassland blazes are biggest source of carbon emissions from wildfires, Chinese study says

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3273533/grassland-blazes-are-biggest-source-carbon-emissions-wildfires-chinese-study-says?utm_source=rss_feed

Grassland fires contribute more to global carbon emissions than any other type of wildfire or agricultural burning, new research by Chinese scientists has concluded.

They are the largest source of emissions from open biomass burning – the burning of organic matter in forests, shrub lands, grasslands, peatlands and farmland – according to the team from the Aerospace Information Research Institute, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The researchers developed a global daily inventory of emissions from open biomass burning using satellite data.

“OBB [open biomass burning] releases significant amounts of trace gases, particulate matter, and greenhouse gases, which are major atmospheric pollutants and have profound impacts on the global carbon cycle, climate, and air quality,” according to the paper published in Earth System Science Data last week.

The researchers pointed out that these fires are hard to monitor because of their sporadic and unpredictable nature, but said: “Accurately estimating these emissions is crucial for devising effective environmental policies.”

It also warned that some parts of the world, such as the Amazon rainforest, Australian bush and parts of the United States, have seen a notable increase in large-scale fires in recent years.

According to the paper, the annual average carbon dioxide emissions caused by open biomass burning between 2020 and 2022 was estimated to be 8,841.45 teragrams – a unit of measurement that equates to a trillion grams.

A comparison of different fires found that savannah grassland burning contributed the largest proportion of the annual total carbon emissions, accounting for 47 per cent with 1,209 teragrams a year. This was followed by woody savannah/ shrubs, which contributed 33 per cent, and tropical forest fires making up 12 per cent.

Sub-equatorial Africa, which is home to extensive savannah grasslands, produced the most carbon emissions from open biomass burning out of 14 geographical regions into which the world was divided in the study.

It produced an average of 847 teragrams a year during the period from 2020 to 2022, the researchers said.

According to CO2 Emissions in 2022, a report from the International Energy Agency, global energy-related CO2 emissions reached over 36,000 teragrams.

The researchers said their conclusions were based on data about wildfires collected by the Chinese Fengyun-3D satellite, which uses infrared sensors and can collect higher-resolution images than some satellites used by Nasa.

“The global fire monitoring product of FY-3D employs optimised automatic identification algorithms for fire spots, leading to improved fire point detection accuracy, ” a report from China Science Daily said.

“This work helps to clarify the global carbon cycle mechanisms … and help formulate global, national and hotspot regional carbon compensation and mitigation policies, enhancing the international influence of China’s data.”

The relationship between climate change and wildfires is complex as the emissions from wildfires are not one of the main sources of greenhouse gases, but increasing numbers of forest and grassland fires are a symptom of rising global temperatures.

Wildfires become more likely as average temperatures rise and last year a report by the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service warned that these fires needed constant monitoring to reduce the impact on air quality and public health.

..

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Dubai airport sets passenger record, thanks to Indian travellers, those transiting via China

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3273605/dubai-airport-sets-passenger-record-thanks-indian-travellers-those-transiting-china?utm_source=rss_feed

Dubai International Airport saw a record 44.9 million travellers pass through its terminals in the first half of this year, putting the world’s busiest airport for international travel back on track to beat its all-time record, as aviation booms after the coronavirus pandemic.

The results released on Wednesday follow a record-breaking annual profit for the long-haul carrier Emirates that calls the airport – known as DXB – its home. The results come as Dubai plans to move operations to a nearly US$35 billion new airfield in the next decade.

Meanwhile, a real-estate boom and its highest-ever tourism numbers have made the city state in the United Arab Emirates not just a layover, but also a destination for even more travellers.

“Before the pandemic, 60 per cent of people coming through the airport were actually transiting to other cities and countries. We’ve now got 60 per cent coming to the city and 40 per cent in transit,” Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said. “That is obviously very good because it means that traffic to the city is very dynamic and buoyant,” he added.

The airport had 89.1 million passengers in 2018, its busiest-ever year before the pandemic. Sixty-six million passengers passed through in 2022 and 86.9 million passengers in 2023.

“We are headed for a forecast number for the balance of the year of 91.8 million passengers, which is again another record for us,” Griffiths added.

DXB has long served as a barometer for the aviation industry worldwide and the wider economic health of Dubai. The UAE and the airline rebounded quickly from the pandemic by pushing forward with tourism, even as some countries more slowly came out of their pandemic crouch.

Travellers from India passed through DXB terminals in the largest numbers through the first half of the year, followed by Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.

Passengers transiting from China notably surged to about one million, an 80 per cent increase over the same period last year, yet levels remain below those seen before the pandemic.

That has seen whiplash at an airport briefly shut during the pandemic to one now straining from the traffic. In April, Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced plans to move DXB’s operations to Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) at Dubai World Central, an airfield in the city’s southern reaches whose development had been delayed by the repercussions of the sheikhdom’s 2009 economic crisis.

The goal of expanding Al Maktoum International “really is to try and get the airport there capable of supporting something like 260 million passengers when fully developed. Now, clearly at DXB, we are limited on the land space that we’ve got available,” Griffiths said. “We probably have another 5 to 10 years [of] growth left at DXB, but beyond that, we will need growth at DWC phase two.”

Plans call for a curving, white terminal reminiscent of the traditional Bedouin tents of the Arabian Peninsula. The airport will include five parallel runways and 400 aircraft gates, officials say. The airport now has just two runways, like Dubai International Airport.

Al Maktoum International Airport, some 45 kilometres (28 miles) away from DXB, opened in 2010 with one terminal. It served as a car park for Emirates’ double-decker Airbus A380s and other aircraft during the pandemic. But since then, it has slowly returned to life with cargo and private flights. It also hosts the biennial Dubai Air Show and has a vast, empty desert in which to expand.

The announcement by Sheikh Mohammed noted Dubai’s plans to expand further south. Already, its nearby Expo 2020 site has been offering homes for buyers.

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4 Chinese nationals, pilot killed in Nepal chopper crash

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3273607/4-chinese-nationals-pilot-killed-nepal-chopper-crash?utm_source=rss_feed

A helicopter crashed in central Nepal on Wednesday, killing all five people aboard, including the pilot and four Chinese tourists.

Nepal has a woeful track record on aviation safety, and the Himalayan republic has seen a spate of deadly light plane and helicopter crashes over the decades.

The Air Dynasty chopper was heading to Syabrubesi, a starting point for many trekking routes popular with tourists, from the capital Kathmandu.

It lost contact about three minutes after taking off, a press release from the Civil Aviation Authority said, and crashed in Nuwakot district, north of the capital.

Another helicopter was dispatched immediately to the accident site for rescue, it said.

“All five people aboard, including the pilot, are dead,” police spokesman Dan Bahadur Karki said.

Nuwakot district officer Ram Krishna Adhikari said five dead bodies have been retrieved from the accident site.

“It has crashed in a jungle area on the slope of a hill. We do not know the cause yet or how it happened,” he said from the crash site.

Adhikari said that police and army personnel were dispatched after locals had alerted him about the crash and a fire at the site.

Nepal’s air industry has boomed in recent years, carrying goods and people between hard-to-reach areas, as well as foreign trekkers and climbers.

But it has been plagued by poor safety due to insufficient training and maintenance, issues compounded by mountainous Nepal’s treacherous geography.

The Himalayan republic has some of the world’s most remote and tricky runways, flanked by snow-capped peaks with approaches that pose a challenge even for accomplished pilots.

The European Union has banned all Nepali carriers from its airspace over safety concerns.

Wednesday’s incident comes two weeks after a plane crash in Kathmandu killed all 18 aboard except the pilot.

Six people, including five members of a Mexican family, were killed when a helicopter crashed soon after take-off in the Everest region in 2023.

Nepal’s tourism minister Rabindra Adhikari was among seven killed in a helicopter crash in 2019.

The country’s last major incident involving a commercial flight was in January 2023 when a Yeti Airlines service crashed while landing at Pokhara, killing all 72 aboard.

That was Nepal’s deadliest since 1992 when all 167 people aboard a Pakistan International Airlines plane were killed when it crashed on approach to Kathmandu airport.

A Thai Airways aircraft crashed near the same airport earlier that year, killing 113 people.

Has China declared a truce in its struggle with private tutoring firms?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3273573/has-china-declared-truce-its-struggle-private-tutoring-firms?utm_source=rss_feed

If, for whatever reason, a person found themselves at the right place – an almost empty commercial building in central Shanghai – and at the right time, they could make out a sound quite unsuited to the premises. With the dinner hour close at hand, the unmistakable noise of children’s laughter would be emanating through the otherwise barren halls, as a gaggle of youngsters waited to be taken home.

Though no conspicuous signage or advertising could be found designating it such, this was the scene following a recent class day at a private educational facility – the sort of institution thought only a few years ago to be an endangered species, gasping its last as it walked the long, hard road to extinction.

But such bleak imagery would be lost on Song, the school’s receptionist, as she fielded calls from parents eager to find open slots for their children. “Summer classes are full. But you can take a look at our autumn curriculum.”

Three years have passed since the Chinese government enacted its “double reduction” policy, which mandated cutbacks in students’ homework burden and banned for-profit extracurricular tutoring on weekends and holidays. In that time, a market for these services emerged under the regulatory radar – and looks to be expanding further this summer, as demand from parents has remained high and the policy environment has softened.

A recent directive by the State Council, China’s cabinet, on promoting the services industry offered even more hope. It included a section encouraging spending on education and training, the first piece of supportive rhetoric from a central government document since the sweeping clampdown was launched in the summer of 2021.

The directive – issued on Saturday as part of Beijing’s efforts to bolster the country’s economy – covered educational services for all age groups and stressed that support would only be offered to non-profit classes on non-compulsory subjects for primary and middle school students, a functional reiteration of language found in the 2021 order. But to many parents and institutions, it sent a signal.

Asked about the possibility of another sudden shutdown, a teacher surnamed Ding from a tutoring organisation in Shanghai was unfazed. “We don’t worry about it at all now. We can take care of everything.”

Her organisation has maintained a high headcount and has a job opening for a Chinese teacher during the busy summer season, she said. Many families take advantage of the break to allow their children to get a leg up on their classmates, sending pupils to tutoring to do assignments given for the holiday and get an early start on material meant to be taught in the new term.

While the tutoring clampdown was intended to equalise educational opportunities and ease parental stress over child-rearing – two phenomena cited by many in China as reasons they have hesitated to have children – the latest directive was rolled out as authorities struggle to prop up economic growth amid a shaky post-pandemic recovery.

The 2021 ban precipitated an immediate and near-total collapse of a flourishing industry, leading many prominent education and tutoring companies to downsize and most smaller players to fold completely.

Following Saturday’s directive, the share prices of two leading Chinese education companies listed in New York – TAL Education Group and New Oriental – saw drastic upswings, with the latter surging by over 13 per cent on Tuesday.

Chu Zhaohui, a senior researcher at the China National Academy of Educational Sciences, said he believed the recent move is bringing a subtle change to China’s education market, even with its careful wording.

“We’ve seen that off-campus training of primary and middle school students has been heating up significantly in recent months,” he said. “So, to a certain extent, the release of the State Council document will exert an influence on how people understand official attitudes.

“People may mistakenly believe that regulation on extracurricular training institutions has been relaxed, which may lead to more supply from businesses and more participation by parents.”

A staff member at another Shanghai-based tutoring organisation said he felt local authorities are increasingly turning a blind eye.

“There’s no need to worry about abrupt closures now, although we don’t promote our business publicly any more – we only do it via phone calls and recommendations by old customers,” said Zhang, who asked to be identified only by his surname.

“Even in the hardest times, when many of our competitors stopped operations, we didn’t cease services, because we have maintained a good relationship with the government.”

Chen Zhiwen, an education researcher and member of the Chinese Society of Educational Development Strategy, said the market’s reaction was a result of misinterpretation, as there was “absolutely no change” in restrictions on after-school tutoring for compulsory subjects.

“But the fact that such misinterpretations have occurred again and again over the past years shows a social sentiment that people need such services,” he said. “We should figure out ways to resolve such demand instead of simply saying no to it.”

He added that in the 2021 directive, there was a line requiring schools to do more to meet students’ needs as they pursued an improved academic performance, but most schools have actually done less, leading parents to turn to commercial outfits.

After the extent of grey-market tutoring became better known in the wake of the 2021 crackdown, the Ministry of Education set an ambitious deadline in an order issued in December 2022. “By June 2024,” it said, “secret training and operations disguised under different names should be completely cleared.”

That did not happen. Wang Qian, the mother of a 10-year-old girl in Zhejiang province, said things have moved in the opposite direction, if anything.

“It never truly ceased. In the beginning, it shifted in form or went online, but now it seems to have made a complete comeback,” she said.

“Even if parents do not actively seek after-school tutoring, teachers might subtly encourage us to arrange it if our kids’ performance lags, because classroom results often affect their evaluations.”

South China Sea: Chinese military holds joint patrol around contested Scarborough Shoal

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3273522/south-china-sea-chinese-military-hold-joint-patrol-around-contested-scarborough-shoal?utm_source=rss_feed

The Chinese military conducted a joint sea and air patrol around Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday, amid continuing tensions in the South China Sea.

The Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army said it had organised a joint patrol in the waters and airspace near the shoal on Wednesday, “aiming to test the theatre troops’ capacities in reconnaissance, early warning, rapid mobility and joint strikes”.

“All military activities that disrupt the situation in the South China Sea, create hotspots and undermine regional peace and stability, are well under control,” it said in its social media, Sina Weibo.

Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island in China and Panatag Shoal in the Philippines, is claimed by both Beijing and Manila and has been effectively controlled by China since an intense stand-off in 2012. It is about 220km (120 nautical miles) west of the Philippine island of Luzon.

Tensions have escalated in recent years between Beijing and Manila on the disputed waters in the South China Sea, mainly centred on Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal.

The patrol came as Manila held its first joint military drill with the US, Canada and Australia on the same day, after a first joint exercise between the Philippines and Japan last week.

The PLA conducted a patrol in the South China Sea in April when the Philippines, Japan, Australia and the US held joint military drills.

More to follow …

Disgraced China kung fu master re-emerges as ‘godfather of nightclubs’ performing ‘lightning’ moves

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3273382/disgraced-china-kung-fu-master-re-emerges-godfather-nightclubs?utm_source=rss_feed

A disgraced kung fu master in China has made a comeback in nightclubs, performing his infamous self-created martial arts moves.

Ma Baoguo, 72, has been seen by online observers who said he had transformed himself into a “godfather of nightclubs”, appearing at venues in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other cities across the country.

From Henan province in central China, the birthplace of Chinese kung fu, Ma claims to be a tai chi master who created his own martial arts school and philosophy.

In the nightclubs, Ma wears white attire and performs his signature moves, the Lightning Five Whips, swinging his arms to the music, twisting and bouncing, and ends with a bow to the audience.

He performs on stage with women assistants.

Each show lasts more than 30 minutes and commands a fee ranging from 100,000 to 200,000 yuan (US$28,000) per show, according to Tencent News.

Ma turned to live-streaming on short video platforms last year to sell clothes. He claims his team can earn 420,000 yuan (US$58,000) for each live-stream.

Online sources show that Ma once ran a martial arts school in the UK and hired an MMA retired fighter to stage fake matches, highlighting his supposed kung fu skills.

In May 2020, the self-proclaimed kung fu master became a laughing stock after he was knocked down three times in 30 seconds in one bout.

Internet users in China have created videos inserting Ma into famous action films or altering images to cast him in films such as The Godfather, where he replaced the lead character played by legendary Hollywood actor Marlon Brando.

On Bilibili, a YouTube-like video sharing platform, spoof videos of Ma have attracted about 150 million views.

Later, Ma wrote on Weibo: “The information online is chaotic. I hope everyone can discern things clearly. I have returned to a peaceful life, away from the disputes of the martial arts world.”

In November 2020, China’s official media criticised Ma as a “swindler”, calling him a “fake kung fu master”.

Weibo disbanded his fan group on the platform.

Ma then stopped posting content online and gradually faded from public view.

However, his return in a different guise has sparked much discussion on mainland social media.

“It seems Ma has grasped the secret to gaining traffic, being an object of ridicule is one way to stay famous,” one online observer wrote on Xiaohongshu.

“This is ridiculous. How can someone who tarnishes martial arts reappear and make big money?” said another.

Another observer took a different view: “He has not broken any laws. He earns money with his own skills and brings happiness to others. There’s no need to criticise him.”

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China’s Wang Yi calls for international community to unite behind Gaza ceasefire

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273518/chinas-wang-yi-calls-international-community-unite-behind-gaza-ceasefire?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called on countries to form a “joint force” to resolve the escalating conflict in the Middle East, telling his counterparts in Jordan and Egypt that Beijing stood “firm” with Arab nations.

In a call with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on Tuesday, Wang stressed that a “full and permanent” ceasefire in Gaza was key to avoiding a deterioration in the regional situation.

He added that the “international community should make a more consistent voice … and form a joint force”, according to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry.

Wang said that China is willing to maintain communication and coordination with Jordan – seen as a key player in the Middle East – to push for a resumption of ceasefire negotiations.

“China will continue to stand firm with Arab countries, support all efforts that are conducive to achieving a permanent and full ceasefire in Gaza, avoid further escalation of conflicts and confrontations, and promote the easing of the situation in the Middle East as soon as possible.”

According to the readout, Safadi noted China’s “objective and fair position” on the Israel-Palestine issue and said that Jordan “expects and believes that China will play a more important role in promoting a ceasefire and stopping the war”.

Safadi, who is also Jordan’s deputy prime minister, urged countries to take immediate action to prevent an escalation of the conflict and “ultimately achieve the independence of Palestine as a sovereign state through the two-state solution”.

Wang and Safadi’s call came shortly after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, which Tehran has blamed on Israel and vowed to attack in retaliation.

According to the readout, Safadi told the top Chinese diplomat that the assassination has further heightened tensions in the region, and described the situation as “very dangerous”.

Wang reiterated Beijing’s official condemnation of the assassination, pointing out that the attack had undermined the negotiation process that was under way for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Speaking to his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty in a separate call on Tuesday, Wang said the assassination had pushed the regional situation to “a more dangerous height”.

Wang said China “resolutely opposes and strongly condemns [acts] that violate the basic principles of the UN Charter, infringe on Iran’s sovereignty and dignity, severely undermine efforts to promote peace, and make a ceasefire in Gaza increasingly unattainable”.

“China will strengthen solidarity with Arab countries and work with all parties to avoid further escalation and deterioration of the situation,” he said, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.

Abdelatty said Egypt appreciated China’s “important role” in promoting peace in the Middle East.

Earlier this week in a call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Abdelatty urged the US to pressure Israel to “cease its brinkmanship and engage seriously in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza”.

Since the start of the war in Gaza last October, China has stepped up its efforts to play a larger role in Middle East diplomacy, most recently brokering a pact to end division between rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas.

Wang said the agreement, signed last month, was an “important, historic moment in the Palestinian cause”, while a foreign ministry statement called it a first step to promoting a “comprehensive, durable and sustainable ceasefire” in Gaza.

China’s approach to the Middle East crisis has largely focused on its push for a two-state solution while calling for a ceasefire. Israel has taken issue with Beijing’s lack of condemnation for the Hamas attack in October that triggered the war.

Philippines turns to maritime law for legal teeth against China

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3273541/philippines-turns-maritime-law-legal-teeth-against-china?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines is a step closer to enacting a maritime law to give the 2016 ruling by The Hague arbitration tribunal more legal teeth and assert its sovereignty over two Chinese-built military atolls and other disputed areas within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The Maritime Zones Act – approved by Congress and awaiting President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s signature – is touted by proponents as embodying Manila’s firm stance against Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The legislation will also cast a spotlight on two militarised atolls occupied by China, Hughes Reef and Mischief Reef, which Beijing calls dongmen jiao and meiji jiao, respectively.

Observers say the proposed law “enforces” for the first time the 2016 arbitral ruling and embeds the term West Philippine Sea, coined by the administration of the late President Benigno Aquino III.

When Congress approved the latest version on July 17, maritime law expert Jay Batongbacal described it as a “foundational law”, setting out in clear terms “the Philippines’ adherence to Unclos [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea]”.

While the draft law has made no mention of China, its main sponsor, Senator Francis Tolentino, who guided its passage through Congress, told colleagues on November 28 last year: “May I just also remind my dear colleagues of the many incidents of aggression from our Chinese counterparts that we have experienced recently in the West Philippine Sea.

“It is time we take a stand against this bullying. With the passage of this Maritime Zones Act, we are taking a firm stand.”

Two weeks before Tolentino’s comments, the Chinese coastguard had chased, surrounded and blasted with powerful water cannons at a Philippine coastguard ship and other vessels resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded warship serving as a military outpost for Manila on the Second Thomas Shoal.

When the Philippine Senate approved the law on February 28 this year with all senators voting “yes”, China filed a diplomatic protest against its passage.

“China firmly opposes it and has lodged solemn démarches to the Philippines,” its Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Mao Ning said during her March 5 daily briefing.

Xinhua state news agency quoted Mao as saying the proposed law was an attempt to enforce the “illegal” 2016 arbitral award, in which The Hague dismissed Beijing’s claims to the South China Sea.

“Under the pretext of implementing Unclos, the Philippines has advanced the legislation of the ‘Maritime Zones Act’ in an attempt to put a legal veneer on its illegal claims and actions in the South China Sea,” she said.

In response to China’s assertions, Tolentino held a press conference on March 6, arguing: “China has no right to veto this. China cannot stop this law.”

The latest version of the legislation, sent to the president for approval, defines the Philippines’ maritime zones and entitlements within each area.

Based on a copy obtained by This Week in Asia, it divides the waters in and around the Philippine archipelago and 7,641 islands – the second largest archipelago in the world after Indonesia – into “maritime zones”.

For instance, in the zone called “territorial sea”, which extends up to 12 nautical miles from the baselines and includes the airspace above and the seabed and subsoil below, Manila exercises sovereignty but recognises the right of foreign vessels to undertake “innocent passage”.

Beyond this territorial sea up to 24 nautical miles from the baseline is another maritime zone called the “contiguous zone” where Unclos allows Manila to exercise control to “prevent infringement of its customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws”.

The belt of water, up to 200 nautical miles from the baselines, is the country’s EEZ where it can exploit the seabed and subsoil, name underwater features, conduct scientific research and construct artificial islands.

In an older version, the proposed measure asserted that “all artificial islands constructed within the Philippine EEZ shall belong to the Philippine government”.

In the version sent for the president’s signature, the phrase has been removed and replaced with a line that states: “Pursuant to Articles 56 and 60 of the Unclos, the Philippines has the exclusive right to construct and to authorise and regulate the construction, operation, and use of artificial islands, installations and structures, and has exclusive right and jurisdiction over such artificial islands, installations and structures.”

Retired Supreme Court senior associate justice Antonio Carpio told This Week in Asia on Tuesday that this section “merely restates international law as a warning to violators – that illegally built structures cannot acquire legal status despite the passage of time and can be confiscated or removed any time by the legal authority that has jurisdiction over the area”.

Batongbacal, also the head of the University of the Philippines-Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said upon its approval, the law would empower the South China Sea arbitration award, “which clearly established our entitlements in the maritime zones under Unclos”.

He added: “With that act, we are also laying the groundwork for improving our law enforcement within these maritime zones.”

During the floor debates, which took place from November 2023 to February, Senator Koko Pimentel wanted to remove all mention of the arbitral victory. But Tolentino stood his ground, saying it was important to include it because “the ruling granted the Philippines a full 200 nautical mile EEZ measured from the baselines of Palawan”.

Its inclusion in the Maritime Zones Act “would clarify the boundaries of the Philippines’ EEZ, ensuring the protection of Filipino fishermen within internationally recognised boundaries”, according to Tolentino. It would “counter China’s argument that the ruling lacks an enforcement mechanism” and serve as a diplomatic tool to counter Beijing’s criticism that Manila lacked a maritime zones law, Tolentino said.

Also, “mentioning the ruling in the bill would underscore China’s unlawful occupation of such artificial islands, enabling the Philippines to maintain sovereign rights and maritime dominion, even in the absence of possession,” he added, referring to the Fiery Cross Reef, Johnson Reef, Cuarteron Reef, which lie inside the Philippine EEZ and have been occupied by Beijing.

Under the proposed law, violators could face “penal sanctions” or a fine of between US$600,000 and US$1 million.

When Senator Robin Padilla inquired why Sabah was not mentioned in the proposed measure, Tolentino replied that “the claim on Sabah involves territorial issues while the proposed measure is anchored literally on UNCLOS, which does not settle territorial or sovereign disputes between states, but specifically deals with archipelagic waters.”

He said a separate legislation was needed to address Manila’s claim on Sabah but the proposed maritime law did not invalidate the claim.

Mainland China’s demand for warehouses plunges as Singapore’s surges: Knight Frank

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3273556/mainland-chinas-demand-warehouses-plunges-singapores-surges-knight-frank?utm_source=rss_feed

Rents for industrial spaces across much of Asia-Pacific continued on an upwards trajectory in the first half of 2024, but mainland China saw a sharp plunge as the sluggish economy weighed on demand, according to a report by Knight Frank.

Southeast Asia saw the biggest rent increases, with Singapore the best-performing city, the property consultancy said on Wednesday. Rents for logistics properties in the Lion City increased by 10.8 per cent year on year in the first half, riding on the back of strong factory activity.

Logistics rents held steady or increased in most of the 17 cities Knight Frank tracks, but slumped in mainland China as weak consumption and exports reduced demand for warehouses.

“While exports have been a positive spot for the Chinese mainland, they have to be considered against the macroeconomic backdrop,” said Christine Li, Knight Frank’s head of research for Asia-Pacific. “Consumption and investment have been weak, and the broad economic slowdown has weighed on the demand for logistics warehousing space in Shanghai and Beijing.”

Rents for logistics spaces plunged 15 per cent year on year in the first six months in Shanghai and 8.6 per cent in Beijing as tenants chose to surrender existing leases and downsize.

China’s exports reached a 21-month high by value in June, which supported some demand for logistics spaces, but not enough.

China’s exports missed market expectations in July, according to customs data released on Wednesday. Analysts predict that growth is likely to decline in the next few months amid softer overseas demand.

“Vacancies in both [Shanghai and Beijing] have surged to over 20 per cent, compelling landlords to cut rents and shorten leases to compete for tenants,” the report said.

Meanwhile, 17 million square metres of new logistics supply is set to flood the market in Shanghai and Beijing in coming months. Knight Frank expects rents to continue falling as vacancies rise in both cities over the next year.

China’s soft demand dragged on overall Asia-Pacific rental growth. Rents for industrial spaces grew by an average of 2.4 per cent year on year in the first half, a sharp deceleration from 6.2 per cent growth a year ago.

“It remains clear that logistics occupier markets are on the whole transitioning to a more neutral state from one favouring landlords,” Li said.

Vietnam’s southern economic region and Manila rounded off the top three locations in Asia-Pacific, with year-on-year rents for industrial space gaining 9.9 per cent and 9.1 per cent, respectively, in the first half, driven by infrastructure development and growth in online retail.

Hong Kong ranked seventh, with first-half industrial rents rising 3.3 per cent from a year ago.

In Singapore, the purchasing manager’s index has risen for 11 straight months through July.

“International manufacturers continue to see the island as a potential manufacturing location to expand operations,” the report said.

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China warns citizens to leave eastern DR Congo after series of deaths and kidnappings

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273493/china-warns-citizens-leave-eastern-dr-congo-after-series-deaths-and-kidnappings?utm_source=rss_feed

China has warned its citizens against visiting eastern DR Congo after a series of kidnappings and killings.

Scores of armed groups are fighting for control of mineral resources and land in the area, creating what the Chinese embassy describes as a “severe” security situation.

It said it had repeatedly warned its citizens from going to four provinces in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo it considers “dangerous” – Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu and Haut Uélé – and other high-risk areas.

The embassy asked its citizens and companies in the affected areas to “immediately stop operations and evacuate as soon as possible.”

Chinese citizens have also been caught up in a recent crackdown on illegal mining in gold-rich South Kivu.

The authorities there are carrying out a large-scale audit of foreign-funded mining companies in the province and punishing illegal activities and “some Chinese citizens who were operating illegally in the local area have been arrested”, the embassy said on Sunday.

It added that it had requested the authorities to “enforce the law in a civilised manner and protect the personal safety and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens”.

Companies from China are paying a high cost for their investment in the region, which has been plagued by violence and instability for the past three decades, with a series of recent kidnappings of Chinese and Congolese workers.

In late July, the embassy said “there are still uncertainties and instability” following an attempted coup in May that was put down by the army and the security situation was continuing to deteriorate.

“Violent conflicts, armed robbery, kidnapping and other incidents occur from time to time. The security risks faced by Chinese citizens in Congo are still high,” the embassy said.

In July, an armed attack on a private Chinese gold mining company in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo “left several Chinese nationals dead or missing”.

Local officials said the attack killed six Chinese nationals and at least two Congolese soldiers. The attack was reportedly carried out by Codeco (the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo), a loose association of militia groups mainly from the ethnic Lendu farming community.

Codeco is one of the many militias fighting for influence and rich resources in Eastern Congo, including the M23 rebel group, which Kinshasa claims is backed by Rwanda – a claim Kigali has denied.

Kivu and the neighbouring province of Ituri are home to a massive amount of minerals, including gold, tin, tungsten, coltan and tantalum.

Some Chinese enterprises continue to operate in the area, reportedly partnering with local licence holders by providing funding and equipment for gold mining.

Last month, Jean-Jacques Purusi, the governor of South Kivu, suspended all mining activities until further notice because of “the disorder caused by mining operators.”

He said the move was intended to “restore order to mining throughout the province and to preserve not only human lives, but also the traceability of mineral production in these sites.”

The embassy in Kinshasa warned Chinese companies and citizens in Congo that if they engage in mining activities, they must register with the authorities and seek a licence.

In 2021, Beijing ordered six companies in South Kivu to cease operating and leave the country, after the DRC government suspended their operations over illegal mining and environmental destruction.

The DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, a critical component used in lithium-ion batteries for electric cars and ­mobile phones, as well as Africa’s top copper producer.

Early this year, Sinohydro Corporation and China Railway Group agreed to invest up to US$7 billion in infrastructure as part of a revised agreement on the Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture following last year’s visit by President Félix Tshisekedi to China.

Chinese-led study finds uneven melting of polar ice could lead to huge global disruption

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3273516/chinese-led-study-finds-uneven-melting-polar-ice-could-lead-huge-global-disruption?utm_source=rss_feed

Uneven melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets could cause large-scale global disruption “in the near future”, according to research into a major climate transition event that occurred around a million years ago.

Ice sheets and sea ice are now melting faster in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, which could trigger another climate event, an international team of scientists wrote in a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Science on August 1.

“With the accelerated, asynchronous melting of modern bipolar ice sheets, enhanced perturbations within the climate system could be anticipated in the near future,” the researchers affiliated with institutes in China, Germany, Australia, the United States and Britain wrote.

The research, led by geologists and climate scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Earth Environment, indicates that how the bipolar ice sheets formed – and how they are melting now – could have even wider climatic implications.

The 28 researchers found that asynchronous expansion of the polar ice sheets – which saw growth in the Antarctic triggering rapid growth in the Arctic – was the likely cause of a transitional event that occurred between 700,000 and 1.2 million years ago.

This event, called the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, changed the length of the world’s glacial cycle – or periods between “ice ages” – from around 41,000 to 100,000 years.

By examining historical climate and ice sheet records, the researchers found that 1.25 to 2 million years ago, growth of the Antarctic ice sheet and southern sea ice triggered cooling in the northern high latitudes, and caused more moisture to be transported to the northern hemisphere.

This led to rapid growth of the northern ice sheet, which in turn could have caused the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, changing the length of time the Earth cycles between its warmer and colder eras.

The Earth entered an interglacial – or warmer – period around 11,700 years ago, marking the end of our last large glacial period.

The team said there were different hypotheses about why this transition occurred, such as a decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide or changes in ocean circulation, but the proposed mechanisms lacked compelling evidence.

Until now, the potential impact of the bipolar ice sheets developing at different times has not been explored as a driver.

Using model simulations of sea surface temperature, prevailing winds and other variables, the researchers could reconstruct changes in hemispheric ice volume and track their development.

Their reconstruction showed that increases in southern ice volume preceded those in the north, and that growth in Antarctic ice sheets were potentially an “important precursor to, or even a direct trigger of, [the Mid-Pleistocene transition].”

“Our results highlight intricate dynamic linkages among Earth’s polar ice sheets with consequential global effects,” the team wrote.

“The proxy-model comparison suggests that asynchronous development of hemispheric ice sheets is indispensable for understanding global climate change.”

The melting ice sheets mean disappearing polar animal habitats, the threat of coastal cities disappearing because of rising sea levels, fears of the emergence of long frozen pathogens and even changes to the Earth’s rotational speed.

However, the disappearance of Arctic ice has sparked discussion about potential effects on shipping – including easier navigation, lower carbon emissions and decreasing reliance on Russia’s northern routes.

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South China Sea: Philippines, Vietnam join forces but Hanoi policy a stumbling block?

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3273499/south-china-sea-philippines-vietnam-join-forces-hanoi-policy-stumbling-block?utm_source=rss_feed

Hanoi and Manila are set to hold their first joint maritime drills as part of a four-day goodwill visit by the Vietnam Coast Guard, seen as the latest in a series of steps between the Southeast Asian neighbours to peacefully settle their maritime disputes amid Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Observers say, however, that in the event of any escalation of tensions with China, joint action between the Philippines and Vietnam remains unlikely as Hanoi’s defence policy prohibits it from forming alliances to oppose another nation.

The exercise on August 9 was not directed at China, Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Armand Balilo earlier told reporters, calling the operation “a good template to de-escalate” the situation in the disputed waterway.

“This shows that even rival claimants can have an opportunity to nurture a relationship.”

Colonel Hoang Quoc Dat, head of the Vietnamese Coast Guard delegation, said their visit was meant to strengthen both countries’ “cooperative relationship for mutual benefit”.

Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, an academic at National Cheng Kung University, told This Week in Asia that Vietnam valued and sought to enhance its strategic partnership with the Philippines in a more effective and practical manner, adding that both Asean countries had the most disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.

“This situation brings the Philippines and Vietnam closer together, despite their own disputes in the South China Sea,” Tran said.

Manila and Hanoi have overlapping claims over their extended continental shelf in the South China Sea. Hanoi followed suit with its own filing before the UN in July, while Manila had done so in June. The Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs has said it is ready to discuss these claims with Vietnam.

Last month, defence officials from both countries met to “reaffirm their commitment to enhancing bilateral defence cooperation” and emphasised “joint efforts to strengthen Asean’s solidarity and centrality in the regional security structure”, according to the Philippine Department of National Defence.

Tran said Vietnam and the Philippines shared many similarities and strategic interests beyond maritime issues – Vietnam remains the largest rice exporter to the Philippines, accounting for 85 per cent of the country’s imports.

“Non-traditional security issues are also a concern in their bilateral relationship, as Vietnam is a major rice exporter to the Philippines, ensuring food security for the Philippines amid global fluctuations. Moreover, the two countries actively promote the resolution of the South China Sea issue through international law at Asean meetings, aiming to strengthen Asean’s unity and central role,” she said.

Yet observers say both countries’ approaches differ significantly in countering Beijing’s heightened activities in the South China Sea.

“Vietnam adopts a more measured approach, while the Philippines is more assertive, especially since Marcos Jnr became president, relying heavily on its alliance with the United States,” Tran said, adding that Vietnam’s “four nos” policy ensured the country maintained “neutrality” and avoided the “loud protests characteristic of the Philippines”.

Hanoi’s policy bars the country from creating military alliances, siding with one country against another, creating military bases and using Vietnamese territory to oppose other countries, or threatening to use force in international relations.

The principles were listed in Vietnam’s Defence White Paper in 2019.

Tran added that Vietnam’s actions against China, including the filing of its own extended continental shelf claim before the UN, could be seen as a strategic move.

“Within the context of the Vietnamese government’s current approach to the South China Sea, this can be interpreted as Vietnam asserting its sovereignty in a legal manner, consistent with international law. This approach conveys Vietnam’s message to China and the international community, thereby enhancing Vietnam’s legal standing.”

At a forum in July, former Philippine Supreme Court associate justice Antonio Carpio proposed that the Philippines invite Vietnam to file a joint arbitration case against China for refusing to allow Filipino and Vietnamese fishermen to fish in the lagoon of Scarborough Shoal, which are traditional fishing grounds for both countries.

Yet Tran said any joint legal action between Hanoi and Manila was unlikely to happen, pointing again to Vietnam’s “four nos” policy.

Aaron Jed Rabena, a professorial lecturer at the University of the Philippines’ Asian Centre, said the Philippines’ deepened ties with Vietnam could still work to its strategic advantage despite differing tactics against China.

“Vietnam puts a premium on hedging by having a diversified set of partners. The Philippines is a country Vietnam can work with to pressure China and symbolically show that it has many cards it could use,” Rabena said.

Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, said reconciliation between both countries was more likely, as Hanoi and Manila “can set examples as champions of international law, military resistance to Beijing’s grand strategy on using a hostile coastguard, and [set a] consistent tone of narrative that China is not the lone owner of the South China Sea”.

China’s exports miss expectations as trade tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty loom

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3273495/chinas-exports-miss-expectations-trade-tariffs-geopolitical-uncertainty-loom?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s exports rose but fell below market expectations in July, and analysts predict growth would likely decline in the second half of the year due to the relatively higher base effect and the implementation of tariffs by the United States and European Union.

Exports in July grew by 7 per cent from a year earlier to US$300.56 billion, according to customs data released on Wednesday.

The reading fell short of the expected growth of 9.5 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and was lower than the 8.6 per cent increase in June.

The growth is also attributed to the low baseline from the same period last year, when China’s exports plummeted to their lowest level since February 2020 after falling by 14.5 per cent.

Imports, meanwhile, rose by 7.2 per cent from a year earlier, compared to the 2.3 per cent decrease reported in June.

Elsewhere, China’s July trade surplus stood at US$84.65 billion, compared with US$99.05 billion in June.

More to follow …

China says no to ‘throwing eggs’: poker-style game loved by party officials loses shine

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3273437/china-says-no-throwing-eggs-poker-style-game-loved-party-officials-loses-shine?utm_source=rss_feed

State employees in China are being advised against playing , a new poker-like card game highly popular among Communist Party officials, on fears that it may spread a “negative atmosphere” at work, the Post has learned.

Guandan – literally “throwing eggs” in Chinese – had taken public sector workers by storm after being officially endorsed by party bureaucrats, and once seemed poised to become a new national sport.

However, the game has fallen out of favour in recent weeks over concerns that it may fuel a passive attitude to work, according to a handful of contacts at government and state-owned enterprises who spoke to the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorised to speak to media.

“Now it is discouraged within the party system due to the negative trends and atmosphere associated with the game that are starting to emerge,” said an official whose superiors have nudged staff away from playing the game in recent weeks.

Senior managers want to “quickly stop the unhealthy trend and control the excess of the game before things get worse, as it would affect work performance and spread a negative atmosphere”, the official said.

In a commentary published on its official WeChat social media platform on Monday, Beijing Youth Daily urged cadres to be wary of the game as it could “foster a sense of decline or lethargy”.

The paper – which is the mouthpiece of the party’s youth league – said the game had increasingly become “a new obsession” for some officials and “a new tactic” for businesses, a reference presumably to currying favour with officials.

Addiction to guandan warranted attention and the game was “a new variant of the lying-flat culture”, the article warned, referring to the trend of youth preferring to reject social pressure to overwork or overachieve.

It went on to say that guandan was corrupting the conduct of some officials, leading to complacency and a lack of diligence, and had also become a social necessity while creating a barrier for those who did not play, “where if you don’t know how to play … you can’t integrate into the group”.

“The saying ‘those who sit at the card table have an easier time getting promoted’ has become a widely accepted norm,” the commentary said, adding that the game “damages the image of party members and officials, causing a negative social impact”.

It is a sharp reversal in image for a game once held up as an intellectual pursuit, something not designed for gambling.

It was seen as so-called safe and correct entertainment for officials, especially after sports like golf and tennis were targeted in the signature anti-corruption drive President Xi Jinping launched more than a decade ago.

Tennis and golf were seen as expensive sports for the wealthy, and officials with a liking for them perceived to have “lifestyle” issues that invited a crackdown.

During China’s annual legislative gathering in March, a member of the country’s top political advisory body even proposed designating guandan as the game’s official English name, to help it better spread around the world.

“[Guandan] will also be loved by people from all over the world in the future. This is also our cultural confidence in [the game],” Qiu Huakang, who is also vice-mayor of Huaian – a city in Jiangsu province where guandan originated – told the Southern Metropolis Daily.

The game also earned a nod from the country’s top sports administrator, which organised the first nationwide tournament last year. The final round, featuring more than 80 players from 11 cities, ended in January.

South China Sea: Sabina Shoal may be new hotspot as Philippines, Beijing spar over sovereignty

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3273452/south-china-sea-sabina-shoal-may-be-new-hotspot-philippines-beijing-spar-over-sovereignty?utm_source=rss_feed

A recent move by the Philippines to indefinitely deploy a coastguard vessel to the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea has raised tensions further in the disputed waterway, with Manila and Beijing both accusing the other of illegally occupying the maritime feature.

Analysts say the shoal, known as Xianbin Jiao in China and Escoda Shoal in the Philippines, could become the next flashpoint in the territorial conflict given its strategic value to both sides.

Manila on Monday rejected a claim by a China Coast Guard spokesperson that the presence of the BRP Teresa Magbanua, a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship stationed at the shoal, violated Beijing’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. The Chinese side also claimed the vessel had been “illegally stranded” on the shoal.

Jay Tarriela, PCG spokesman for the West Philippine Sea, denied the accusation, saying the BRP Magbanua had been “intentionally deployed to maintain our presence and ensure the protection of this area of the West Philippine Sea”, referring to the part of the South China Sea that lies within the country’s exclusive economic zone.

“Given our sovereign rights in these waters, the Philippine coastguard can remain there for as long as necessary,” Tarriela added.

Manila has had the BRP Teresa Magbanua deployed to the shoal – a low-tide elevation feature that is part of the Spratly Islands, located 75 nautical miles (139km) from the island province of Palawan – since April to monitor and prevent alleged illegal activities by Chinese vessels.

In May, the Philippines claimed China could be undertaking land reclamation activities near the shoal after crushed corals were found in the area.

Over the weekend, the BRP Teresa Magbanua was used to provided Philippine fishermen with fuel subsidies, while Chinese research vessel the Ke Xue San Hao, the China Coast Guard’s largest vessel nicknamed “the Monster”, and 12 Chinese maritime militia were spotted patrolling the area.

Jose Antonio Custodio, a defence analyst and fellow at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers, told This Week in Asia on Tuesday Sabina Shoal could be the next potential flashpoint in the South China Sea conflict.

“The Chinese are trying to inch forward. The Philippines is also trying to protect its line of communication and sovereignty there. The shoal is ideal for forward operating areas … Similar to what the Chinese have done in Mischief Reef, it will allow for the projection of power or the protection of communication lines,” Custodio said.

Mischief Reef, known as Panganiban Reef in the Philippines, has been developed and transformed by China into an artificial island with military installations, including runways and missile systems.

Security analyst Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, noted that Sabina Shoal is close to Second Thomas Shoal – another disputed maritime feature that has been the site of numerous conflicts between both sides – and a good place for rest and replenishment for small boats.

The Philippine and China recently said they had reached a deal to de-escalate tensions at Second Thomas Shoal by agreeing to terms under which the Philippines could conduct rotation and resupply (RORE) missions to their outpost there.

Previously, Beijing would attempt to disrupt these missions, which led to numerous clashes. An incident on June 17 left several members of the Philippine navy injured, including one who lost a thumb.

Espeña said maintaining a presence at Sabina Shoal would give China more power to enforce its terms over RORE missions.

“This is something that the Philippines must counter, given the critical value of a symmetric enforcement of the RORE. If not, the Philippines might be in a bad position in the long term,” Espeña told This Week in Asia.

He also noted that Sabina would serve as a good forward operating base for the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command.

Sherwin Ona, an associate professor of political science at De La Salle University in Manila, said it was not difficult to imagine that Sabina Shoal would become a flashpoint since it was the “scene of an environmental crime”, given the accusations that China had destroyed coral for illegal land reclamation activities.

“The current situation shows that the Philippines needs bigger ships that can stay in an area for longer periods. This underscores the need for the PCG to invest in floating platforms,” he said.

Ray Powell, a maritime security analyst at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, said Beijing had stationed its ships at Sabina Shoal for years, but the Philippines’ recent investigation revealing apparent preliminary reclamation activity forced Manila to deploy the BRP Teresa Magbanua to monitor and contest China’s attempt to lay claim to this feature.

“This unexpected move has clearly aggravated Beijing, which has responded by sending in larger militia as well as coastguard vessels, including the 12,000-ton ‘Monster’ ship, which remains there now,” Powell told This Week in Asia.

Manila and Beijing have been locked in an increasingly contentious territorial row in the South China Sea in recent months. A tribunal in The Hague ruled in 2016 that Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea through its so-called nine-dash line had no legal basis and recognised Manila’s sovereign rights in the waterway. China, however, has refused to accept the ruling and continues to assert claims over maritime features such as the Sabina Shoal.

China family feud locks son and parents in struggle to send each other to mental hospital

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3273339/china-family-feud-locks-son-and-parents-struggle-send-each-other-mental-hospital?utm_source=rss_feed

The plight of a 24-year-old man in China who was detained against his will in a psychiatric hospital by his parents who have poor mental health, has gripped the nation and highlighted irregularities in psychiatric institutions.

Mo Nan, not his real name, said he had been arguing with his parents since he was a secondary school student, leading them to conclude he was mentally ill, according to a report in the Huashang News.

They took him for treatment at a psychiatric hospital in Zibo, Shandong province, eastern China where doctors prescribed medication.

Mo was admitted to a mainland university in 2017, where he studied well and was praised by teachers for helping others.

However, his parents were adamant he was mentally ill after he argued with them, and they asked doctors to increase his medication.

According to the son, his parents decided he was displaying “abnormal behaviour” if he played mobile games, slept late or disagreed with them.

When he did not want to talk to them, they accused him of being “in down spirits”, yet when he became emotional, they said he was “too excited”.

“My only shortcoming is that I obeyed their orders. Even after I went to study at university, I still followed their instructions and swallowed the drugs they gave me,” Mo said, adding: “I resisted too late.”

He became obese and said his memory had deteriorated due to the long-term consumption of psychiatric drugs.

On July 28, 2021, Mo said he was “cajoled” by his parents into attending Zibo Mental Health Centre.

He said he was not examined, just told by a nurse that he would be hospitalised for three months.

“I was held down on a bed by medical staff and a rope was used to bind me. I was given an injection and an electric shock. My head was so painful it felt as though it would explode,” he said.

Mo said he later found out, from reading his medical documents, that his parents had exaggerated his mental health problems, which led doctors to reach the conclusion that he was seriously ill.

When he was discharged from hospital after 83 days, he tried to persuade his parents to check their own mental health with psychiatric doctors, hoping they would lose the right to supervise him when they were found to be unwell.

Last year, both parents were diagnosed with schizophrenia at Shandong Provincial Mental Health Centre.

However, the diagnosis from Beijing Anding Hospital, a leading psychiatric institution in China, showed they had depression and anxiety, but their situation did not constitute serious psychogenia, doctors concluded.

The report did not say if Mo’s parents were hospitalised.

China’s Mental Health Law stipulates that hospital admission should be voluntary.

However, if a patient is found to have serious mental disorders and has hurt himself or others, the hospital can confine him after obtaining permission from his family.

Cases of people incorrectly hospitalised at psychiatric institutions frequently make headlines in China.

Last month, there was a public outcry when it was revealed that a 34-year-old woman had been confined to a psychiatric hospital in southeastern Fujian province for more than 10 years, despite recovering, because her family refused to sign her release document.

US plans more frequent bomber deployments to Australia amid China’s ‘escalatory behaviour’

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/07/us-plans-more-frequent-bomber-deployments-to-australia-amid-chinas-escalatory-behaviour

The US says it plans “more frequent” deployments of bomber aircraft to Australia amid concerns over China’s “dangerous and escalatory behaviour” in the region.

The announcement after annual talks on Wednesday builds on a long-term trend of increased rotations of American forces to Australia, along with moves to upgrade Australian military bases and pre-position US army equipment in Australia.

Pushing back at criticism that this only increases tensions with Beijing and makes Australia a bigger target, the Australian government said the presence of American forces “provides an enormous opportunity to work with our neighbours”.

Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, and the defence minister, Richard Marles, travelled to the US for annual talks with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin.

While China is always a significant topic on the agenda, the Australian and US representatives also used the meeting to share their fears of escalation in the Middle East and to ramp up their calls for a Gaza ceasefire.

“The ceasefire has been urgent for months. It’s never been more urgent than it is now,” Wong said at the beginning of the meeting in Annapolis, Maryland, on Tuesday local time (Wednesday Australian time).

Blinken later told reporters that the US had been in constant contact with partners across the region and had “heard a clear consensus [that] no one should escalate this conflict”. He said this message had been communicated “directly” to Iran and Israel.

The Australian government describes the US as its “closest ally and principal security partner”. The yearly talks between the two allies are known as the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations, or Ausmin.

The two sides have frequently used the talks to expand rotational visits by US forces to Australia, known as “force posture initiatives”.

These include US marines deploying to Darwin under a plan first put in place by the Gillard government and Obama administration.

Austin told reporters the two countries agreed to “continue deepening our force posture cooperation”.

“We’re also increasing the presence of rotational US forces in Australia,” Austin said.

“All this will mean more maritime patrol aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft operating from bases across northern Australia. It will also mean more frequent rotational bomber deployments.”

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Marles said the latest meeting had “built on the last two in seeing a deepening of American force posture in Australia”.

“American force posture now in Australia involves every domain, land, sea, air, cyber and space – so we are seeing US Army watercraft, for example, engaging in Australia,” Marles said.

“The presence of American force posture in our nation provides an enormous opportunity to work with our neighbours in the region.”

Marles said he and Wong had spoken with Australia’s neighbours and had heard “genuine appreciation for the contribution that America is making to the stability and the peace of the Indo-Pacific region by its presence in Australia”.

He said this had allowed Australia and the US to conduct “a much greater range of activities and operations and exercises with our partners” including Japan and the Philippines.

Wednesday’s agenda included taking stock of “substantial progress” on the plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the Aukus security pact.

South Korea tops China for shipbuilding orders as competition heats up

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3273414/south-korea-tops-china-shipbuilding-orders-competition-heats?utm_source=rss_feed

Shipyards in South Korea netted a second win over their Chinese peers this year last month, a move believed to reflect Seoul’s devotion to defend a pillar industry amid increasing competition between the two nations.

South Korean shipwrights took 40 per cent of global intake for ship orders last month, which totalled 2.37 million compensated gross tonnage, BusinessKorea reported on Monday, citing British analytics firm Clarksons Research.

China dropped to second with a 24 per cent of orders, with South Korea firms having also surpassed their Chinese counterparts in February.

Chinese firms, though, received 30 orders, compared to 18 for South Korean manufacturers.

China also consolidated its lead with new orders of 25.54 million compensated gross tonnage in the first seven months of the year, representing a market share of 63 per cent, compared to South Korea’s 8.11 million compensated gross tonnage, or 23 per cent.

Clarksons did not reply to a request for information on Tuesday, but it said previously that China overtook South Korea in 2021 as the world’s top receiver of global shipbuilding orders in terms of annual volume.

But analysts said South Korea’s move in July could reflect shifts in the way China and South Korea view shipbuilding.

China is channelling subsidies into new industries, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at French investment bank Natixis, with hi-tech hardware and electric vehicles government priorities for economic development.

Beijing hatched its third state-backed fund, worth 344 billion yuan (US$48.2 billion), this year to support the domestic semiconductor industry.

South Korea has also added funds for its shipbuilding sector after Seoul announced plans in 2022 for US$2 billion in projects intended to support its shipping industry as global freight rates fell.

It also offered more funding, including a US$19 billion package of incentives earlier this year, to foster its flagship semiconductor industry.

“South Korea’s shipbuilders are known for quality and price competitiveness, backed by a national political economy determined to reduce over-reliance on semiconductor exports,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

South Korean companies, defending a historic reputation for high-value ships, have stepped up their quest for new global orders as Chinese peers begin building several liquefied natural gas vessels and their country’s largest-ever cruise liner.

China would still compete with South Korea for ship orders as a way to vie with West-leaning allies, such as Seoul, on technological advances and control over supply chains, added Garcia.

“They care for a very important reason,” she said. “For China, South Korea is a tipping point in terms of tech cooperation with the US.”

Beijing pumped hundreds of billions of US dollars into shipping and shipbuilding in the 2000s, the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank said in May.

The China State Shipbuilding Corporation of Shanghai ranks as the world’s biggest shipbuilder.

Chinese officials are, though, intent on beating the US in hi-tech hardware and renewable energy, said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia.

Shipping probably matters more than shipbuilding among officials in Beijing, Chin added.

“They do care, but in terms of the pecking order, it’s not as important as building a new port, say in Africa,” he said.

But South Korea’s surge in shipbuilding market share in July might reflect just “a couple of big orders”, or a seasonal adjustment, rather than long-term dominance over Chinese shipbuilders, added Chin.

Will China’s ‘smart political game’ in the Middle East and Ukraine pay off?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273358/will-chinas-smart-political-game-middle-east-and-ukraine-pay?utm_source=rss_feed

China is ramping up mediation efforts in the Middle East and on Ukraine, as it tries to capitalise on American missteps and cast itself as an alternative peace broker.

Last month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for the first time since the start of Russia’s invasion, while the leaders of 14 Palestinian factions – including rivals Hamas and Fatah – signed a unity declaration in Beijing.

State media hailed both events as efforts by Beijing to “address the deficit in global peace”. Observers say that while China wants to play a central role in conflict resolution it is clear-eyed about the limits of its influence.

Beijing is seeking to contrast its approach with Washington’s entanglement in regional conflicts and to present itself as a facilitator of peace – part of a soft power push to counter criticism from the West.

Zhiqun Zhu, an international relations professor at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, said it was understandable that Beijing was pushing back.

“This new wave of active diplomacy is consistent with China’s attempt to project itself as a peacemaker in a turbulent world,” Zhu said. “Western governments and media have routinely portrayed China as an aggressive power, and China wants to demonstrate that it is a responsible and peaceful great power.”

He said China’s latest peacemaking efforts were a bid to counter what it sees as a hostile and unfair Western narrative.

“Whether one likes it or not, China is an important piece of the puzzle if we want to settle disputes in the Middle East, between Russia and Ukraine, and elsewhere,” he said.

The agreement reached by Palestinian factions on July 23 – dubbed the Beijing Declaration – was aimed at forming an “interim national unity government” once Israel’s war on Gaza ends.

The Chinese foreign ministry said it was the first time the 14 factions had gathered in Beijing for reconciliation talks, which demonstrated “China’s sincere efforts to support the rights of the Palestinian people, end the division and unify the Palestinian position”.

Israel and the US rejected the Beijing-brokered agreement, which called for the creation of a Palestinian state based on borders before the 1967 Mideast war but gave few details on how or when the joint government would be formed.

“This is not a deal. It’s a declaration about a broad and repeated set of principles that, in reality, don’t mean anything yet. China was able to pull this off precisely because of the value-free nature of this declaration,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, associate fellow at Chatham House and head of the China Studies Unit at the Emirates Policy Centre, a think tank in Abu Dhabi.

Aboudouh said Beijing’s involvement in the pact was “strategic and long-term” – as it had been in the deal China brokered last year between rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.

He said the Palestinian factions also understood that Beijing wanted to build an image of being a responsible major power and they wanted to grant it a diplomatic win.

“But this is not all that China wants – in the long term, China wants to reserve a seat at the table of any peace negotiations,” he said. “Understanding its limited influence over Israel, it wants to come into the room as a virtual representative of Palestinian interests since it sees the US as the defender of Israeli interests.”

China, a staunch supporter of the Palestinians since the 1950s, has traditionally been cautious about getting drawn into the Middle East quagmire of conflict like the US.

Beijing has become increasingly pro-Palestinian since the Gaza war began in October, while Washington’s support for Israel has drawn criticism as the civilian death toll mounts.

Unlike Washington – which has no official ties with Tehran and designates Hamas as a terrorist group – Beijing maintains relatively balanced ties with regional stakeholders, including Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since a brief war with Fatah in 2007.

But observers are sceptical about the Beijing pact – which both Hamas and Fatah said was just an initial step – citing previous failed attempts to end the enmity between rival factions, and Western opposition to any future role for Hamas.

“Ideally, China, the US and other powers should work together to help resolve all these major disputes. Unfortunately, due to growing US-China rivalry and distrust, great power cooperation is very rare nowadays,” Zhu said. “The Palestine agreement reached in Beijing may be hard to implement without cooperation from the US and its allies.”

Sourabh Gupta, a senior policy specialist with the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said Beijing’s recognition of Hamas’ role in the Palestinian cause was a message for the US and Israel.

“One key outcome of the Fatah-Hamas meeting has been to point out to Washington and Jerusalem implicitly that Hamas is here to stay as an actor in Palestine’s politics, and Western capitals don’t get to choose the constituents and complexion of the Palestinian liberation movement,” he said.

A day after he witnessed the Palestinian agreement being signed in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba in Guangzhou. Observers said Kuleba’s four-day trip came at a critical juncture for both China and Ukraine, after President Volodymyr Zelensky questioned Beijing’s self-proclaimed neutrality in the war.

Wang pledged to promote “healthy and stable development” of bilateral ties and to continue expanding grain imports from Kyiv.

He repeated China’s commitment to promoting a “political settlement” of the Ukraine crisis and claimed its joint peace proposal with Brazil – which would include Russia at the negotiating table – had “extensive support”.

Kuleba said he was convinced that “a just peace in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests, and China’s role as a global force for peace is important”, according to Ukraine’s foreign ministry.

Aboudouh of Chatham House said Kuleba’s visit to China was a risk-mitigating mission.

“Ukraine knows that China is the only non-Western power that can throw a spanner in the works of President Zelensky’s peace vision, and it wants to build a consensus with China over the main principles of the peace settlement,” he said.

Zhu from Bucknell University noted that Kuleba was in China as concerns are growing in Ukraine that Donald Trump could be re-elected in November.

“It’s very clear to Ukraine that if Trump returns as the US president, US support for Ukraine will significantly diminish,” he said. “It makes sense for Ukraine to reach out to China if Washington’s support is not guaranteed any more.”

Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, also said Beijing was likely to wait until after the US presidential election before making any big moves on Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

“Beijing would score a diplomatic coup if it could broker an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, but it would struggle to bring either Zelensky or [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin to come to the negotiating table unless they were already convinced there was no other option,” he said.

Thomas said China wanted to be seen as an international peacemaker but was cautious about risking its diplomatic capital to advance negotiations if they did not have a high likelihood of success.

“Without a much higher willingness to take risks in the name of peace, Beijing is unlikely to be a peace broker in the same way the United States has been in recent decades,” he said.

“China’s efforts to play a more prominent role in global governance would be greatly aided if the United States were to become more inward focused or even withdraw from some of these institutions. Beijing is eager to position itself as an alternative to Washington.”

Gupta said China was playing “a smart political game” on both Ukraine and Palestine.

“It is providing ‘global public goods’ in the international security arena, without overpromising outcomes that it is not in a position to deliver,” he said.

Gupta said Beijing was aware of the limits of its own principles-based approach, its “limited skin in the game”, as well as the limits in its agency to force outcomes.

With no realistic military path to liberating territories on the ground and with Trump’s possible return, Kyiv might want Beijing to use its influence to bring Moscow to the table, according to Gupta.

He said China’s aim was to present itself as the “purveyor of a different form of ‘major power’ diplomacy” – in contrast to the US.

“It desires to be part of the solution to global hotspot challenges; not be a disrupter that is part of the problem,” he said.

“The larger purpose of China’s ‘major power’ diplomacy is to grease its own rise without inviting countervailing geopolitical pushback, at a time when the incumbent powers have accused China of aiming to reshape the international order at the expense of others.”

He noted that Beijing had sent special envoy Li Hui to Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia to “build up conditions to resume peace talks” – countries that, like China, have not imposed US-led sanctions on Russia.

“The message of this new type of ‘major power’ diplomacy is directed primarily to the Global South, where it can expect a more sympathetic hearing,” Gupta said.

Aboudouh also said China had no choice but to deepen its relations with the Global South, as engagement with the West becomes more challenging.

“China will also have to deal with scepticism around its real intentions, including explaining its vision for the global order and reconciling its rhetoric around principles such as ‘non-interference’ with its actions,” he said. “Despite all these challenges, I see some success in China’s strategy to discredit the US-led Western world’s credibility since the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.”

Suisheng Zhao, director of the Centre for China-US Cooperation at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, saw both the Palestinian pact and Kubela’s China visit as symbolic rather than having concrete results.

He said Beijing’s pro-Palestinian approach and tacit support for Russia – which was more strategically important to China than Ukraine – would undermine its efforts to promote itself as a neutral peacemaker.

“While an alignment with Russia may empower China against the US, China is also concerned that it could get entrapped in Russia’s proxy war against the US-led West, threatening its strategic interests,” Zhao said. “However, China has yet to find a new balance when struggling between empowerment and entrapment over its handling of ties with Russia.”

Stock market sell-off raises concerns for China’s exports amid US recession fears

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3273423/stock-market-sell-raises-concerns-chinas-exports-amid-us-recession-fears?utm_source=rss_feed

Warning signs are flickering for China’s economy – of which the export sector has been a major growth engine in the first half of the year – after concerns about a recession in the United States triggered a massive global stock market sell-off at the start of this week.

A spate of global macro events – weak job data in the US, rising tensions in the Middle East, unsustainable valuations of artificial intelligence-driven tech stocks and policy tightening by the Bank of Japan – wiped out more than US$6 trillion from stocks worldwide on Monday, with leading US equity benchmarks suffering their worst days in two years.

While some of the worst-hit markets regained ground on Tuesday, with the key index in Japan rebounding over 10 per cent, it is viewed as too early to reach a conclusion on whether the turmoil has passed, or if it is a real prelude to a recession, said analysts.

“For now, we still regard it as a market fluctuation,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered Bank.

“But if it really signals a US recession, it means the global economy would also be dragged down, so China’s external demand would slow down.”

Economists at Goldman Sachs on Sunday raised the probability of a US recession in 2025 from 15 per cent to 25 per cent.

And while China’s domestic demand has yet to show clear signs of a rebound, Beijing is likely to unveil more stimulus – in the real estate sector or through more active fiscal spending – to maintain growth if the export sector suffers, added Ding.

China is set to release its July export figures on Wednesday, with the surveyed forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind for shipments to increase by 9.5 per cent year on year following 8.6 per cent growth in June.

Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said the US economy remains relatively resilient despite weakening job growth and consumption, while China’s exports this year still have a relatively benign outlook.

“Much of the recent upswing in Chinese trade growth has been tied to inventory restocking, rather than headline growth statistics,” Marro said, adding that the direct relationship between US headline growth and Asian trade performance has been “a bit wonky” since the coronavirus pandemic.

“It’s likely that Chinese export shipments will slow over the coming months.

“However, that’ll be linked to the end of export front-loading activities tied to both the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the US tariffs scheduled for mid-August, rather than signalling an outright collapse in US demand.”

In July, China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which covers more small exporters compared to the official figures, plunged to 49.8 from 51.8 a month earlier, pointing to cooling external demand.

Marro added that bigger policy-related risks are looming in 2025, given the high likelihood that Donald Trump could return as US president.

The Republican candidate has threatened to remove China’s permanent normal trade relations with the US, and also impose a blanket tariff across all US imports.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, said the US does not have a high risk of recession as the US Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates even earlier than expected in September.

But she added the direct impact of a potential recession in the US on China’s trade might not be as big as it used to be.

“The US is by now no longer the largest export market for China. Europe is much bigger now because of years of protectionism from the US side,” she said.

US-China fentanyl cooperation deepens as Beijing tightens controls for precursor chemicals

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3273471/us-china-fentanyl-cooperation-deepens-beijing-tightens-controls-precursor-chemicals?utm_source=rss_feed

Beijing is tightening its regulation and control of three chemicals used to produce fentanyl, Washington said on Tuesday, signalling closer bilateral cooperation in America’s push to stem a nationwide crisis.

A US National Security Council spokesman hailed China’s decision subjecting key precursor chemicals to the potent synthetic opioid to greater control as “a valuable step forward”.

China’s Ministry of Public Security on Monday stated that three substances would be managed under the regulation for chemical auxiliary substances that may be used to produce drugs starting on September 1.

The substances named in the ministry’s announcement were fentanyl precursors known as 4-AP, 1-Boc-4-AP and norfentanyl.

Almost 75,000 people died from fentanyl overdoses last year, making it a leading cause of death for Americans younger than 45. The US has called China a “primary source” of ingredients used in producing fentanyl, but Beijing has long denied any involvement.

According to the applicable Chinese regulation, those who produce such precursors should report their production and sales details including the type and quantity of chemicals as well as major sales flows to local authorities within 30 days of operation.

The regulation requires enterprises to apply for permits for transporting such chemicals outside their local county and exporting them.

Individuals are also prohibited from buying such precursors. Entities that intend to do so must register with local authorities both the types and quantities of chemicals they plan to obtain, according to the Chinese regulation.

Fentanyl has long been a flashpoint in US-China relations, with American lawmakers from both major political parties criticising the mainland’s role as a primary source for the precursors that produce fentanyl trafficked into the states.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has been engaging Beijing to tackle the issue and seeing headway in the past year.

In November, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their summit in California agreed to work together on narcotics control. In January, the leaders launched a US-China counternarcotics working-group mechanism.

Delegations from the two countries met last week in Washington in the first senior-level meeting of the working group. They agreed to further strengthen dialogue and promote “in-depth” drug control.

The officials discussed “ways to increase law enforcement cooperation, disrupt the illicit financing of transnational criminal organisations and accelerate the scheduling of precursor chemicals”, according to a White House announcement on Tuesday.

US-Australia talks focus on China’s ‘coercive behaviour’ and rising Middle East tensions

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3273472/us-australia-talks-focus-chinas-coercive-behaviour-and-rising-middle-east-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed

The United States and Australia kicked off high-level talks on Tuesday that will focus on China’s “coercive behaviour”, as well as the Aukus nuclear submarine project and mounting tensions in the Middle East, officials said.

The annual Australia-US Ausmin talks, taking place in Annapolis, Maryland, include the top defence and diplomatic officials from both nations.

“We’re working together today to tackle shared security challenges, from coercive behaviour by the PRC [People’s Republic of China], to Russia’s war of choice against Ukraine, to the turmoil in the Middle East,” US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said.

“And I know that [this] year’s Ausmin will deliver results for both of our peoples.”

The US and China are at odds on a range of issues. These include US support for Taiwan, as well as Chinese military activity in the South China Sea, over most of which mainland China claims control including the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where US ally the Philippines has maritime claims.

Austin spoke in the wake of a rocket strike on Monday in Iraq that wounded seven US staff, as the Middle East braced for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week’s killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles held meetings in Washington on Monday, a day before the Ausmin talks.

Marles highlighted the expanding role of a US Marine rotational force in northern Australia and defence industry cooperation.

“We’re seeing America’s force posture in Australia grow really significantly, Aukus is part of that, but it’s not the only part of that,” Marles said in talks with Austin, according to a statement.

Under the Aukus programme, Washington will sell three nuclear-powered submarines to Australia in the next decade, and with a US election looming, Australia’s Wong said in Washington there was bipartisan US political support for the programme.

US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy, told ABC Television that China and climate change – priorities for the Pacific Islands, where the US and Australia are competing with China for security ties – would be discussed.

“Obviously with China being such an important … trading partner and competitor for both of us, that is obviously one of the main topics,” she said.

“We are also talking about what we can do together to fight climate change, [and] to help the Pacific Islands to build critical infrastructure to connect them,” she added.

As part of cooperating on environmental and resource issues, Australia will spend A$200 million (US$130 million) to upgrade ground station facilities in its remote central desert to process data from Nasa’s Landsat Next satellite.

Landsat Next is an earth observation programme the US space agency says will provide early warnings on the onset of fires or ice melting. The programme is scheduled to be launched in 2030.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the satellite data would also be used to target resource exploration in Australia, as the two nations develop a supply chain for critical minerals.

The US and its allies are seeking to reduce China’s market dominance in rare earths and critical minerals used in electric vehicles and defence technology.

Despite China’s diplomatic rise, US still holds key to wars in Ukraine and Gaza

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3273370/despite-chinas-diplomatic-rise-us-still-holds-key-wars-ukraine-and-gaza?utm_source=rss_feed

Widely seen as an economic powerhouse, China is also emerging as a facilitator of peace. However, for better or worse, it is the actions of the United States that will ultimately determine the trajectory of the ongoing global conflicts.

The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the retaliation against Hezbollah in Beirut risk expanding the Gaza conflict into a wider regional war. Nonetheless, Israel remains undeterred. In July, during his address to a joint session of Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a robust defence of his country’s actions.

In the same week in Beijing, China helped broker an agreement between Hamas, Fatah and 12 other Palestinian factions. A major aspect of the agreement was that it included a reaffirmation of a two-state solution, which recognises the state of Israel. This development follows China helping to bring about the resumption of diplomatic relations between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran last year.

China’s increased role as a mediator is important for stability in the Middle East. By fostering unity, Beijing’s efforts could help the region overcome internal conflicts and enhance its capacity to work for the common good.

China is not a direct party to any Middle East conflicts, but it is far from disinterested. With its substantial economic footprint in the region, a stable Middle East aligns with China’s strategic and economic interests.

In May, Beijing hosted the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum, focusing on deepening economic collaboration across various sectors, including energy and technological innovation, finance and trade. Saudi Arabia, eager to diversify its economy away from fossil fuels, has a willing partner in China for its transition to a greener economy.

Underpinning China’s engagement in the Middle East is President Xi Jinping’s Global Development Initiative, which aims to transform the world through economic cooperation. Through initiatives and organisations such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Brics grouping and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China aims to reshape the current global economic order.

Complementing that is the Global Security Initiative, which Beijing insists is not intended to challenge existing security frameworks such as the US-Saudi defence treaty or Nato. Although China has established a military base in Djibouti, Beijing maintains that its purpose is solely to protect China’s economic interests in the region.

China envisions itself as a global power primarily through its economic influence, aiming to create what it sees as a fairer world system. In the context of today’s conflicts, Beijing views economic development as the essential foundation for achieving sustainable peace and security.

In the West, China’s growing economic sway is perceived as a threat. The US is waging a trade war aimed at containing China’s rise. In the Middle East, the US-Saudi defence pact could affect China’s cooperation with the kingdom. The ongoing US-China tech war, for example, is likely to have an effect on China-Saudi collaboration in sensitive sectors such as artificial intelligence.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the US approach to China has taken on a military dimension, exemplified by security alliances such as the Aukus grouping with Australia and the United Kingdom. Additionally, Nato is considering pivoting to the East, seeking strategic partnerships with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to uphold the Western-led rules-based international order. Meanwhile, the transatlantic alliance faces a persistent crisis closer to home: the unresolved war in Ukraine.

Leading up to a peace summit in June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lobbied for China to attend the meeting in Switzerland. Beijing refused, citing Russia’s absence as the reason. Instead, China and Brazil jointly announced in May an alternative six-point plan to promote a political solution to the Ukraine crisis.

The Switzerland peace summit did not garner the support it sought. India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa were among the countries that declined to sign the final communique, with the two former countries citing Russia’s absence and the latter Israel’s presence.

In July, Zelensky proposed a second peace summit in November, hinting that Russia could be invited to participate. It is notable that he scheduled the meeting before a potential change of leadership in the US. It appears Kyiv is concerned that the outcome of the US election could adversely affect the Ukraine crisis. This concern highlights the stark contrast between the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

The US election is unlikely to alter the trajectory of the Gaza war. Netanyahu is expected to persist with a military approach. In contrast, former US president Donald Trump’s re-election could lead to Zelensky and Ukraine being forced into a negotiated settlement with Russia.

Zelensky appears to be Trump-proofing his options. In mid-July, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou, urging China to play a constructive role in the peace process. For his part, Wang reiterated Beijing’s support for a political solution to Russia’s invasion.

China is emerging as a transformative economic power. Through the Global Development Initiative, China is not only fostering economic growth but laying the economic groundwork for lasting global peace and stability. Countries mired in conflict can turn to China for peace facilitation, and for many of those countries the path to peace appears to be through Beijing.

However, the immediate resolution of ongoing conflicts lies elsewhere. The contrasting fates of Zelensky and Netanyahu suggest that it is Washington, not Beijing, that will ultimately shape the trajectory of the crises in Ukraine and Gaza. Despite Beijing’s increased diplomatic presence, it is the US that will ultimately determine if and when the wars in Europe and the Middle East come to an end.

Donald Trump supporters go after Tim Walz’s China experiences

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3273485/donald-trump-supporters-go-after-tim-walzs-china-experiences?utm_source=rss_feed

In the first hours after US Vice-President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic candidate for president, announced on Tuesday that her running mate would be Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, supporters of Republican nominee Donald Trump scrambled to find the harshest criticisms they could about the pick.

What did they home in on? From anonymous online posters to former Trump officials to hard-right news outlets, they went with Walz’s extensive personal history in China.

Numerous social media posts, including those from accounts followed by members of Trump’s inner circle, with some suggesting he could be a Communist Party agent.

“Communist China is very happy with @GovTimWalz as Kamala’s VP pick. No one is more pro-China than Marxist Walz,” Richard Grenell, a former acting director of National Intelligence in the previous Trump administration, posted on X, the social platform owned by Trump supporter Elon Musk.

Gabriel Noronha, who served as an adviser to the Iran Action Group in Trump’s State Department, shared a quote purportedly by Walz in 2019 that called for “expanding military-military contacts” for a “solid, lasting partnership” with China.

A post on X by an account named Leskov Brandonovic said that “Tim Walz, who went ‘teaching’ in China, in 1989 of all years, and also has business there, opposed trade war against China. Why am I not surprised?”

The post included a 2019 statement from Walz that tariffs on Chinese imports were hurting American farmers.

The account has only 5,612 followers, but they include Donald Trump Jnr and Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary.

A report by The New York Post, long a supporter of Trump, carrying the headline “Tim Walz has fawned over Communist China”, soon rocketed across X.

After earning a degree in social science education in 1989, Walz, a Nebraska native, spent about a year teaching high school in China through Harvard University’s WorldTeach programme. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, he still can speak in Mandarin.

In an 2019 interview with the Washington-based news outlet The Hill, Walz said that “China was coming, and that’s the reason that I went”.

After returning home, Walz met his wife, the former Gwen Whipple, while both were teaching at the same high school in Nebraska.

When they married in 1994, they set up a company called Educational Travel Adventures, which, according to the National Governors Association website, offered “a summer trip to China for their students and traveled there nearly every summer through 2003”.

Additionally, when Walz was a US Representative from Minnesota from 2007 to 2019, he became a member of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and met with the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan political and spiritual leader in exile.

In a 2018 post on Twitter, Walz, now 60, described the encounter as a “life-changing lunch”,” highlighting the discussion’s focus on “humility, patience, and compassion.” In 2018, he was elected governor of Minnesota, then re-elected in 2022.

The campaign against Walz unfolds in the midst of an election where any connection to China has been used as a weapon against opponents.

Just last week, Trump supporters launched a similar social media attack on Senator Mark Kelly, the Arizona Democrat also being considered for the vice-presidential slot. They targeted a nine-year-old video of Kelly promoting franchises for American vitamin supplement company Shaklee in China.

Isaac Stone Fish, chief executive of Strategy Risks, a research company that analyses corporate exposure to China, described such China connections as “double-edged sword” in US politics.

“On the one hand, voters and officials connect with people who have expertise on a supremely important issue like China.

“On the other hand, those with ties to Beijing – especially present ones – may open themselves up to attack by the opposing political party”, he said.

“For a long time, US policy and norms actively encouraged greater connection with China, and with the Communist Party of China,” Fish noted.

“Just like today there is a bipartisan consensus to reduce U S exposure on China, there was a bipartisan consensus for much of the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s to increase US exposure to China,” he added.

According to Denis Simon, the former executive vice-chancellor of Duke Kunshan University in China, Walz’s experience in China should be considered an “asset”.

He accumulated precisely the type of upfront on-the-ground experience needed to develop skills as a diplomat, negotiator and collaborative partner,” he said, emphasizing that Walz “did not go to China because he was a Maoist or CCP sympathizer”.

“He went as part of the type of people-to-people diplomacy that can help build both trust and understanding”, Simon said. Walz’s experience could help the US government “understand Chinese thinking, behavior, and intentions”.

Even in the current fraught state of US-China relations, Nicholas Burns, the American ambassador to Beijing, said that Washington sought greater student exchanges.

“We need young Americans to have an experience of China,” Burns told a Brookings Institution audience in December. “For an American leadership in the future that is cut off from China, that hasn’t had an experience there, that doesn’t speak Mandarin – that’s not in the national interest.”

Jeffrey Sachs a Columbia University economist and author of A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism, said that “Americans are subjected to utter nonsense about China, all promoted by foreign policy” and Walz’s “first-hand experience should help him to cut through the nonsense”.

“There are absolutely no deep reasons for the US and China to be in conflict, especially when cooperation of the two countries could help to solve so many global problems. Trump and Biden both got China terribly wrong.

“I am hoping that Harris and Waltz will do better,” he added.

‘Pro-democracy activist’ convicted in US of acting as covert Chinese agent

https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3273484/pro-democracy-activist-convicted-us-acting-covert-chinese-agent?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese-American academic was convicted in the United States on Tuesday on charges of using his reputation as a pro-democracy activist to gather information on dissidents and feed it to China’s government.

A federal jury in New York delivered the verdict in the case of Wang Shujun, a naturalised US citizen who helped found a pro-democracy group in the city.

Prosecutors said that at the behest of China’s main intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security, Wang lived a double life for more than a decade. He held himself out as a critic of the Chinese government so that he could build rapport with people who actually opposed it, then betrayed their trust by telling Beijing what they said and planned, prosecutors said.

“The indictment could have been the plot of a spy novel, but the evidence is shockingly real that the defendant was a secret agent for the Chinese government,” Brooklyn-based US lawyer Breon Peace said in a statement after the verdict.

Wang had pleaded not guilty. His lawyers cast him as someone who was forthcoming with US authorities about activities he saw as innocuous, and they disputed that his communications were truly under Chinese officials’ direction or control.

“The jury felt they were and that was enough to convict him, even though there was no evidence that what he did caused any harm, was of any benefit to the Chinese government or that Professor Wang is anything other than a patriotic American who has devoted his life to fighting the authoritarian regime in China,” Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma said after the verdict.

Wang, 75, was convicted of charges including conspiring to act as a foreign agent without notifying the attorney general. The charges carry the potential for up to 25 years in prison, though sentencing guidelines for any given case can vary depending on a defendant’s history and other factors. Wang’s sentencing is set for January 9.

Meanwhile, four Chinese officials who were charged alongside Wang remain at large. They are among dozens of people whom US prosecutors have pursued to fight what Washington views as “transnational repression”, or deploying government operatives to harass, threaten and silence critics living abroad. The Chinese embassy in Washington disputes that the country engages in the practice, saying it does not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs, abides by international law and respects foreign nations’ judicial sovereignty.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy, said in a statement on Tuesday that he was unaware of the specifics of the Wang case but that China opposes the United States’ “slander”, “political manipulation” and “malicious fabrication of the so-called ‘transnational suppression’ narrative and its blatant prosecution of officials from relevant Chinese departments”.

Wang arrived in New York in 1994 to teach after doing so at a Chinese university. He later became a US citizen.

He helped found the Queens-based Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang Memorial Foundation, named for two Chinese Communist Party leaders who were sympathetic to calls for reform in the 1980s. A message was sent to the foundation seeking comment on Wang’s case.

Prosecutors say that underneath a veneer of advocating for change in China, Wang acted as a covert pipeline for information that Beijing wanted on Hong Kong democracy protestors, advocates for Taiwanese independence, Uyghur and Tibetan activists and others in the US and elsewhere.

Wang composed emails - styled as “diaries” - that recounted conversations, meetings and plans of various critics of the Chinese government.

One message was about events commemorating the 1989 protests and bloody crackdown in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, prosecutors said. Other emails talked about people planning demonstrations during various visits that Chinese President Xi Jinping made to the US.

Instead of sending the emails and creating a digital trail, Wang saved them as drafts that Chinese intelligence officers could read by logging in with a shared password, prosecutors said.

In other, encrypted messages, Wang relayed details of coming pro-democracy events and plans to meet a prominent Hong Kong dissident while the latter was in the US, according to an indictment.

During a series of Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) interviews between 2017 and 2021, Wang initially said he had no contacts with the Ministry of State Security, but he later acknowledged on videotape that the intelligence agency asked him to gather information on democracy advocates and that he sometimes did, FBI agents testified.

But, they said, he claimed he did not provide anything really valuable, just information already in the public domain.

Wang’s lawyers portrayed him as a gregarious academic with nothing to hide.

“In general, fair to say he was very open and talkative with you, right?” defence lawyer Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma asked an undercover agent who approached Wang in 2021 under the guise of being affiliated with the Chinese security ministry.

“He was,” said the agent, who testified under a pseudonym. He recorded his conversation with Wang at the latter’s house in Connecticut.

“Did he seem a little lonely?” Margulis-Ohnuma asked a bit later. The agent said he did not recall.

Wang told agents his “diaries” were advertisements for the foundation’s meetings or write-ups that he was publishing in newspapers, according to testimony. He also suggested to the undercover agent that publishing them would be a way to deflect any suspicion from US authorities.

Another agent, Garrett Igo, told jurors that when Wang found out in 2019 that investigators would search his phone for any contacts in the Chinese government, he paused for a minute.

“And then he said: ‘Do anything. I don’t care,’” Igo said.