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• China cannot support Russia and hope to woo Europe away from the US
• US sanctions China-based network over links to North Korea space and missile programmes
• China names and shames agents offering unauthorised access to ChatGPT on the mainland
• China’s Middle East peace drive faces ‘big challenges’ after brokering Palestinian deal
• Chinese firms urged to brace for tech-for-market swap with inevitable overseas expansion
• Britain can deliver on its domestic goals by working with China
• Chinese archaeologists unearth 3,400-year-old jade workshop at Sanxingdui ruins
• Hong Kong to tap into mainland China’s spending power with shopping festivals
• China’s nudges ‘high quality’ firms to seek overseas debt funding
• China woman to abort unborn boy with ‘aggression’ genes after random online ‘advice’
• China targets childhood obesity with urgent new guidelines on food and exercise
• China’s critical third-stage rocket engine passes test for crewed moon mission
• Luxury brands in China take hit on low consumer confidence as economy slows
• Philippines to forge new defence ties with Singapore amid China tensions
• Elderly Chinese students fill empty kindergartens in Shanxi province as birth rate falls
• China KOL goes from amputee despair to delight thanks to cutting-edge robotic hand
• China’s third plenum shows it is ‘not in the mood’ to slow down on nuclear arms
• Ukraine urges China to play ‘constructive’ role in security following Putin-Kim pact
• Chinese-born scientist in US tells of ‘fear and desperation’ from Trump-era convictions
• China, Hong Kong pools of ultra-rich shrink and Asia’s wealth engine cools, Altrata says
• In China for China: German firms buck trend, bring best tech and products to compete
• China may take ‘tough measures’ in Sabina Shoal stand-off with Philippines, analysts say
• ‘200 Alice Guos’: fugitive Philippine mayor’s case stokes fears of Chinese infiltration
• Spice of life, China ‘cancer’ man relieved to find chilli from hotpot caused 2-year cough
• US should fund ways to help Chinese get around ‘Great Firewall’, lawmakers hear
• How China can respond to new headache of Russia-North Korea treaty
• US climate envoy to go to China as talks progress on greenhouse gas cuts
• Whether Harris or Trump, the prospect of a direct China-US conflict is unlikely: expert

China cannot support Russia and hope to woo Europe away from the US

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271443/china-cannot-support-russia-and-hope-woo-europe-away-us?utm_source=rss_feed

It is no secret Beijing would like very much to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe in May – especially his meetings with Nato-sceptic leaders in Hungary and Serbia – suggests he thinks this is a real possibility.

But if China is to have a serious chance, it needs to understand why Europe as a whole – particularly Nato members – have remained so closely aligned with the United States for so long. Above all, Beijing needs to abandon any notion that these European governments are Washington’s “vassals”, that they would trade America for China if they would just somehow realise how much better off they would be.

European governments have allied with the US because they see it as being in their interests. They value the US for providing protection against a hostile Russia. This is something Europeans cannot do as credibly and effectively on their own. Russia’s war against Ukraine and its activities in Africa have only heightened European fear of Moscow.

If China truly wishes to decouple Europe from the US, it will have to persuade Europeans that it can provide better protection against Russia than Washington can.

That is clearly a tall order. But if China could rein in hostile Russian behaviour towards Europe, Europeans would highly value their relationship with China.

China could, for example, call for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, the withdrawal of all Russian forces from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory and the end of all Chinese trade with Russia until these steps are completed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, of course, would be utterly livid at any such announcement. If China halted all trade with Russia, Moscow’s war effort would be much harder. And if Russia became isolated from China as well as the West, Putin’s effort to fund his war via foreign trade would be far more difficult.

Without China’s demand, the price Moscow could get for its petroleum might drop even further than it has under Western sanctions. And without China’s provision of dual-use items, necessary components for its weapons would dry up. Moscow might hope to still receive arms from Iran and North Korea, but even these two might not be willing to continue in the face of Chinese opposition.

By contrast, Ukraine, the rest of Europe and even the US would be delighted just by the announcement of a Chinese call for an end to Putin’s war effort and a Russian force withdrawal, leave alone Russia heeding it.

Moscow’s compliance would not by itself bring about an end to the Nato alliance. But if Russia’s aggressive behaviour came to an end, then over time Europeans would return to their proclivity for spending less on defence. Most importantly, Europeans might come to see good relations with China as being more important to containing Russia than good relations with the US, especially a US potentially led by a Donald Trump who questions the US’ commitment to Nato.

There is, of course, no guarantee that a halt to Chinese trade with Russia would eventually lead to Europe being more oriented towards China than the US. And Beijing would be loath to turn against Moscow, its oft-declared strategic partner.

It should be noted, though, that Putin has no hesitation in cozying up to states like India and Vietnam which cooperate in the security realm with the US. Putin has never been shy about pursuing Russian great power interests when he sees them as being different from China’s. There is no reason, then, for China not to pursue its great power interests when they differ from Russia’s.

There is no doubt China has become a great power. But what kind of great power does its leadership want China to be? Is it an insecure, defensive great power that sticks with what anti-Western partners it now has, such as Russia, whose behaviour frightens Europeans and others into increased reliance on the US? Or is it a more self-confident one prepared to sacrifice the interests of its problematic allies to gain even more allies or at least weaken their alliances with the US?

As an American concerned about continued US influence in the world, I would prefer that China remain supportive of Putin since this leads Europe to fear Beijing as Moscow’s ally, and so remain loyal to Washington. But is this in China’s best interests?

US sanctions China-based network over links to North Korea space and missile programmes

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3271768/us-sanctions-china-based-network-over-links-north-korea-space-and-missile-programmes?utm_source=rss_feed

The United States unveiled sanctions on Wednesday against a network of half a dozen people and five firms in China it accuses of supporting North Korea’s ballistic missile and space programmes.

The network is alleged to have helped North Korea with procuring items for its ballistic missile programmes, which the US Treasury Department said were being operated in “flagrant violation” of UN Security Council resolutions.

North Korea’s continued development of its ballistic missile technologies “is both irresponsible and destabilising for both the region and the international community”, Treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence Brian Nelson said in a statement.

“The United States remains committed to using our tools to enforce these international sanctions, including disrupting the illicit procurement networks that provide key inputs for these technologies,” he added.

The US Treasury said North Korea’s space and ballistic missile programmes made use of an “extensive network” of overseas agents to procure the foreign-sourced materials needed, which included personnel at its diplomatic missions and trade offices, “as well as third-country nationals”.

It also makes use of foreign firms to purchase the items it needs, the Treasury added.

Among those sanctioned by the Treasury on Wednesday was Shi Qianpei, a Chinese national, whom the department accused of working with a previously designated individual based in Beijing to procure metal sheets used in the production of North Korean missiles.

Other individuals sanctioned include Chen Tianxin, Shi Qianpei’s business partner and wife, and two of his employees, all of whom helped with the procurement efforts, the Treasury said.

China names and shames agents offering unauthorised access to ChatGPT on the mainland

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3271751/china-names-and-shames-agents-offering-unauthorised-access-chatgpt-mainland?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s internet watchdog has named and shamed certain agents who were caught offering local access to ChatGPT, as US provider OpenAI blocked use of its artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) and other local authorities have meted out punishments to several website operators during the first half of this year for offering unauthorised access to generative AI (GenAI) services, such as ChatGPT, on the mainland.

The CAC’s action shows its resolve to enforce domestic AI rules rolled out in August last year, which mandates all AI services to be screened and registered by authorities before being made available to the public. Certain developers and enterprises, however, have used virtual private networks to get around these rules and access unregistered GenAI services.

The results of that crackdown come weeks after OpenAI started blocking access to its application programming interface from July 9 in “unsupported countries and territories”. Along with the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau, OpenAI’s ban covers US-sanctioned states such as Iran, North Korea and Russia.

Nanchuan District Rongcheng Network Technology Studio, which operates more than 10 websites in the country, was named by the CAC’s branch in the southwestern city of Chongqing for providing ChatGPT services “without going through a safety assessment”, the regulator said in a statement on Monday.

The CAC branch in Chongqing summoned representatives of the studio and ordered them to immediately disable access to ChatGPT.

The operators of Yizigpt.com, an AI writing platform, gaming site Kukupao.com.cn and Lvshifuwuwang – a legal services provider that is difficult to find online – were caught for failing to censor content that contained illegal information generated from undisclosed GenAI services, according to the CAC.

The regulator said those operators were slapped with “administrative punishment”, a term used for non-criminal violations, which can lead to fines, the shutdown of a business or detention of persons behind an offence.

Authorities in other mainland cities have also punished websites for inappropriate use of AI. The police in Changsha, capital of central Hunan province, detained a man surnamed Xu for three days after he was caught with an AI-generated fake reward notice for wanted suspects.

The CAC branch in Leiyang, another city in Hunan, caught a man surnamed Zheng who generated fake information via AI and posted it on a local website. Both Zheng and the website operator were slapped with administrative punishment.

Beijing has kept a cautious stance on GenAI since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

While the mainland aims to become a world leader in AI, it also wants to make sure that GenAI service providers “adhere to core socialist values” and do not generate any content that “incites subversion of state power and the overthrow of the socialist system, endangers national security and interests”, according to the GenAI regulation that took effect last year.

There have been 117 GenAI products registered with the CAC. In January, a total of 14 large language models – the technology underpinning GenAI services like ChatGPT – and enterprise applications were given the green light by authorities for commercial use. Those approvals came after an initial number of GenAI services were allowed for release to the public last August.

China’s Middle East peace drive faces ‘big challenges’ after brokering Palestinian deal

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3271752/chinas-middle-east-peace-drive-faces-big-challenges-after-brokering-palestinian-deal?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s success in bringing together rival Palestinian factions is only a first step, according to diplomatic observers who warned it faces a bigger challenge in making the deal stick and getting Israel on board.

“The declaration is a great breakthrough, but it will not be easy to advance it,” said Ma Xiaolin, an international relations specialist at Zhejiang International Studies University.

“The first step is to push for a ceasefire, but Israel has not changed its position on Hamas and has rejected Hamas involvement in the post-war governance of Gaza, and this will be the biggest challenge,” he said. “Maybe the next step for China is to send a special envoy to persuade Israel.”

Beijing has not released the full details of the deal between Fatah, Hamas and 12 smaller Palestinian factions. But the outlines of the agreement would see a Palestinian unity government being formed to oversee Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem with elections to be held as soon as possible.

Although this implies acceptance of a two-state solution, both the United States and Israel have both rejected any role for Hamas.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted on X, formerly Twitter, “this won’t happen because Hamas’s rule will be crushed”.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Mathew Miller said the Palestinian Authority should be the one “governing a unified Gaza and West Bank”.

The US is continuing to push for a ceasefire agreement that would see Hamas freeing all remaining hostages seized last October, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expected to visit the White House on Thursday.

The deal signed in Beijing is the latest attempt to bring rival Palestinian factions together, but none have been able to stick.

A 2017 reconciliation deal signed by Hamas and Fatah in Cairo in 2017 under pressure from Arab states would have led to the creation of a unity government in Gaza, but it collapsed over a disagreement about who would control the borders.

To make matters worse, the following year the then Palestinian Authority prime minister Rami Hamdallah blamed Hamas for an assassination attempt against him during a visit to Gaza.

News portal Middle East Monitor reported that the Beijing agreement incorporated other previous deals, including the 2011 National Accord Agreement signed in Cairo and the 2022 Algeria Declaration, to be implemented “with the help of Egypt, Algeria, China and Russia”.

Ma said previous failures were largely due to underrepresentation and the lack of a monitoring system to oversee implementation.

“Only countries such as China and Russia can take care of the Palestinian cause in the framework of the United Nations and counteract the unfair US position against Palestine,” he added.

China has been trying to promote its image as a peace broker after negotiating a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations last year.

But Clemens Chay, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, said that while the Iranians and Saudis had both given clear signals they were willing to engage with each other, “there are inherent differences, which are difficult to overcome” among the rival Palestinian factions.

These include disagreements over whether to commit to non-violent means of securing statehood and how a post-war Palestinian state would be governed.

“I would say that Beijing managed to achieve a kind of lowest denominator from all factors and perhaps also dangling some carrots,” Chay said.

“In other words, some concessions for the parties involved. It’s more symbolic than substantial.”

Looking forward, Chay said it would take a great deal of political capital on Beijing’s part to hold the Palestinian factions to their word – and there was still the additional hurdle of getting Israel to stop fighting and accept whatever national unity government was formed.

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Chinese firms urged to brace for tech-for-market swap with inevitable overseas expansion

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3271735/chinese-firms-urged-brace-tech-market-swap-inevitable-overseas-expansion?utm_source=rss_feed

More Chinese companies would likely partner with overseas firms when they expand abroad, leveraging their technology and supply chains, in exchange for market access, analysts said, despite rising geopolitical risks and hostility.

“When companies go abroad, maybe at some point you need to get used to what foreign companies encounter when they are doing business in China,” said Xu Sitao, chief economist at Deloitte Research.

“There will be some sort of nudging for partnerships by foreign governments, sometimes forced partnerships, what we call ‘market for technology’.

“But that’s OK because that would accelerate the process for turning into a genuine local company, and also help China with communication with abroad.”

Xu Sitao added Chinese firms are already under pressure from other economies to move further downstream to boost economic development and provide more jobs, while more policies will be introduced, for example, in data security.

When foreign enterprises entered China in the 1980s, they often had to exchange their advanced technology for access to the domestic market, particularly in the automotive industry.

The “market for technology” strategy allowed China to obtain superior technologies, helping boost its own technological capabilities and innovation.

But as weakened domestic demand drags down growth prospects, concerns about overcapacity have been rising.

Western countries, led by the United States and the European Union, have been ramping up tariffs and subsidies to protect their domestic enterprises against the perceived threat of Chinese products and companies entering their markets, further intensifying the deglobalisation trend.

In May, the US announced new tariffs on US$18 billion worth of Chinese imports, while the EU’s extra duties on electric vehicles took effect earlier this month.

The EU move has since been mirrored by Turkey, with Canada also weighing similar measures.

“‘Go global or go bust’ has become the consensus in many industries,” said Xu Zijie, a researcher with Anbound, a Beijing-based public policy consultancy.

“The growing number of restrictive laws imposed by Western countries not only hinder their own industrial development, but also exacerbate inflation issues.

“For competitive Chinese companies, the ‘technology for market’ strategy can help them overcome these limitations and expand their global reach.”

More Chinese companies may expand overseas by partnering with local enterprises as going global has become a vital trend for the development of domestic enterprises, as their strengths lie primarily in competitive pricing, robust supply chains and irreplaceable technologies, Xu Zijie added.

“On the other hand, the trend of deglobalisation is expected to persist for a long time,” said Xu Zijie.

“China’s supply chains and technology remain competitive despite global reshuffling, and partnering with local enterprises is a way to mitigate geopolitical risks, but both parties need to explore collaboration methods that benefit both sides while avoiding geopolitical scrutiny and sanctions.”

Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL) has reached an agreement with Ford to help build its battery plant in the US through technology licencing, despite strict restrictions on Chinese new-energy products.

CATL is also collaborating with Tesla to develop faster-charging batteries and supplying equipment to Tesla’s Nevada factory under a similar licencing arrangement.

Chairman Robin Zeng has expressed his optimism about the model, which involves licencing battery manufacturing technology, collecting royalties and providing support services.

Britain can deliver on its domestic goals by working with China

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271692/britain-can-deliver-its-domestic-goals-working-china?utm_source=rss_feed

In a historic election victory, Sir Keir Starmer successfully advocated for an YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard) agenda of growth and development for Britain. It all sounds quite familiar to Chinese ears, except for one missing piece of the puzzle: the country’s foreign policy approach of “Global Britain”, established by former prime minister Theresa May, and its implications for China.

The Labour Party’s campaign understandably focused on domestic issues, such as high energy prices, the country’s flailing National Health Service (NHS), immigration and infrastructure. Meanwhile, “Global Britain” appears to have fallen by the wayside. However, domestic politics and international diplomacy are always intertwined. This is of particular significance for Britain’s multifaceted relationship with China.

Right now, as Britain seeks to ramp up manufacturing capacity China is under domestic and international pressure to wind down. When factoring in China’s experience in building a development-oriented state, it appears that Britain and China are at a point of historic economic complementarity.

British foreign secretary David Lammy has identified climate change, health and artificial intelligence (AI) as areas where China and the UK should work together. Renewable energy is a key area of China’s industrial strength. Any path to net zero by 2050 likely means working with China. To make this work, Chinese firms shouldn’t just sell solar panels to the UK, but also build production plants in Britain.

When it comes to healthcare, the level of cooperation between China and the UK has been consistent across various administrations. So far, much of the cooperation is focused on research between academic institutions. However, as China faces the challenges of its ageing population and the UK seeks to improve the NHS, healthcare provision may be an area for increased cooperation.

Like climate change, the risks associated with AI can only be solved on the global level. China’s involvement in the AI Safety Summit last year might have surprised many, but was welcomed by then British prime minister Rishi Sunak as necessary for global action on AI. Other Western countries have expressed concern about the safety risks of AI. Meanwhile, China would like to see continued and regulated data sharing. As everyone refines their position, AI may be one of the few areas where a global compromise can be reached.

In these and other areas, such as infrastructure, Starmer could always consider cutting China out of the picture, for security reasons or otherwise. But without China, implementation costs might be more expensive than they otherwise would have been, making Starmer’s agenda all the more difficult to achieve.

Part of Starmer’s goal is building a Britain that is more competitive, including against China. Beijing should support this push for its short- and long-term implications. Over the past decade, Britain has seen effectively zero net growth; this means that, should China wish to grow its economic engagement with the UK, someone else would need to lose out.

Should Britain return to a path of consistent growth, its bilateral trade volume with China could increase, even as UK leaders diversify the country’s trade network. This is probably what Chinese diplomats mean when they emphasise “win-win cooperation”.

China should recognise that Britain, as a core member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is aligned with the United States on security matters. Meanwhile, the UK must recognise that the South China Sea should not be a British defence priority. The UK is certainly not a Pacific nation as barely more than 10 per cent of its trade passes through the South China Sea. If the UK diversifies its global trade network, it might be less inclined to see China as a security challenge. This could be an incentive for Beijing to support Britain’s trade goals.

The past few years have shown that any fruitful engagement between China and the West requires an absence of bombastic rhetoric, as well as going beyond symbolic gestures. China, for example, should not make a renewed push for the UK to adopt Huawei’s 5G network. It wouldn’t do any practical good for bilateral relations, but instead lead to increased suspicion from foreign policy analysts and decision-makers. This would ultimately harm ties between China and the UK.

While Britain’s cybersecurity concerns and stance on human rights are quite clear to China, and will probably continue to be a topic of bilateral discussions, it would be better done in private settings.

“Progressive realism”, as advocated by Lammy, means that Britain will push for what it believes is right, but in a results-oriented way. In his victory speech, Starmer said his government will turn away from the era of domestic British politics as “noisy performance”. This should apply to Britain’s foreign policy too. Loud China-bashing won’t achieve any non-political goals, and will probably only lead to China digging in. Consistent and principled engagement with China has a long and proven history of success.

Britain once was a diplomatic powerhouse. Many practices in international dialogue, such as the Chatham House rule, were conceived here. Over the last century, the UK has slowly seen this tradition somewhat wither, as declining global influence and interests takes their toll. So far, British think tanks and research institutions are keeping the flame alive.

A global Britain cannot just be backed by economic and military weight, which aren’t the UK’s strengths anyway. Its greatest strength has long been its soft power and historical ties with countries around the world. The British foreign ministry should support the efforts of think tanks and academic institutions, but also step into the arena itself, carrying the torch from former foreign secretaries Lord Castlereagh, George Canning and Lord Palmerston, and show once more that Britain has a valuable, independent role to play on the global stage.

Chinese archaeologists unearth 3,400-year-old jade workshop at Sanxingdui ruins

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3271722/chinese-archaeologists-unearth-3400-year-old-jade-workshop-sanxingdui-ruins?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese archaeologists have unearthed a jade workshop dating back more than 3,400 years at the Sanxingdui ruins in southwest China, state media said on Tuesday.

“This is the first time a handicraft workshop has been discovered at Sanxingdui. It fills a gap in the archaeological research on Sanxingdui and is of great significance,” said Ran Honglin, director of the Sanxingdui Site Workstation of the Sichuan Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, in an interview with official news agency Xinhua.

The artefacts include raw jade, finished products as well as scraps, fragments and blank pieces of the stone, representing various stages of the production process.

The discovery sheds light on the origin of the raw materials and stone tools used in the early handicraft industry as well as the functional layout of the ancient city of Sanxingdui, Ran said.

Sanxingdui is considered one of the most important archaeological discoveries of the 20th century, providing a glimpse into a little-known culture that flourished more than 3,000 years ago in what is now Sichuan province.

Archaeologists have uncovered a treasure trove of bronze, gold, jade and ivory objects, all related to sacrificial activities, in a series of pits that lay undisturbed until the mid-1980s.

There are more than 17,000 cultural relics that have been unearthed at Sanxingdui [from its six sacrifice pits]. We have only completed cleaning and conservation of more than 4,000 artefacts, so there are still more than 12,000 artefacts to be restored,” said Yu Jian, deputy director of the Sanxingdui Museum.

Yu added that restoration and cleaning of the remaining 12,000-plus relics were expected to be completed in the next six years.

The Sanxingdui ruins are believed to be at the heart of the mysterious Shu kingdom of 4,500 years ago.

However, no written records have been found to explain where these ancient people came from or the significance of the relics they left behind.

Findings from Sanxingdui have distinctive regional characteristics and have been viewed as symbols of the diversity within ancient Chinese civilisation.

“We also found some artefacts indicating cultural exchanges between Sanxingdui and other regions,” said Xu Danyang, deputy director of the Sanxingdui Site Workstation of the Sichuan Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology.

“The findings also illustrate the set of values behind the handicraft industry in Sanxingdui. The technology is closely related to other regions in China and is an important part of Chinese civilisation,” Xu said.

The jade and stone processing site was located near previously unearthed sacrificial pits. It was discovered alongside other new findings, including an aqueduct and city gates that revealed more about the layout of the ancient city.

Xu said the main axis of the ancient city ran from northwest to southeast, showing that the ancient Shu people adapted to the local geography based on the direction of mountains and rivers.

“Such a layout not only facilitated the collection of water for production and living but also facilitated the use of waterways for external communication, reflecting advanced ideas about urban construction,” Xu said.

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Hong Kong to tap into mainland China’s spending power with shopping festivals

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3271739/hong-kong-tap-mainland-chinas-spending-power-shopping-festivals?utm_source=rss_feed

Hong Kong’s leading trade organisations are holding two shopping festivals highlighting local brands in the hopes of sparking a spending spree by taking advantage of Beijing’s new measures to support local tourism.

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council and the Chinese Manufacturers’ Association unveiled their retail fiestas on several mainland Chinese e-commerce platforms, including Xiaohongshu, Douyin, Taobao and JD.com, as well as at the AsiaWorld-Expo near the airport, on Wednesday.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the council’s online fair would capitalise on the city’s “advantage” arising from the vast mainland market and help Hong Kong’s small- and medium-sized businesses reach new customers.

“The Hong Kong Shopping Festival can help different Hong Kong products tap into the mainland market more extensively and make Hong Kong brands shine,” he added.

Stephen Liang, the council’s assistant executive director, said the digital fair, to be held between August 1 and 31, would help local companies familiarise themselves with the mainland’s business culture and marketing channels.

“The mainland market has been developing in leaps and bounds, particularly the thriving e-commerce landscape,” he said.

“Diverse online channels such as live streaming, instant retail and social commerce have become the new normal for many mainland consumers … However, many Hong Kong small- and medium-sized enterprises are unfamiliar with the business culture.”

According to Liang, the campaign will feature six major product categories: apparel and accessories, personal care and cosmetics, home and living, traditional foods, smart gadgets and health supplements.

In addition to promoting the campaign on social media, 20 influencers such as Li Jiaqi will also conduct live-streaming sessions on Douyin, Taobao and JD.com for 60 selected local brands.

Chan earlier said e-shopping accounted for only 8 per cent of total retail sales in Hong Kong last year and had “considerable room for growth”, compared with the mainland’s 28 per cent.

In his policy address last October, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said authorities would set up an interdepartmental task force to help local businesses develop electronic commerce on the mainland.

A dedicated fund was established to help local non-listed companies develop brands, upgrade and restructure their business operations, and promote sales on the mainland. The council’s shopping festival was a suggestion made by the task force.

Beijing last month raised the duty-free shopping allowance for mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong and Macau to 12,000 yuan (HK$12,880 or US$1,650). Under the previous rule, visitors from across the border paid a tax of 13 to 50 per cent to the central government for purchases above a threshold of 5,000 yuan per trip, a measure introduced in 1996.

Beijing has also added eight mainland cities to the scheme allowing solo travel to Hong Kong, taking the total to 59.

China’s nudges ‘high quality’ firms to seek overseas debt funding

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3271716/chinas-nudges-high-quality-firms-seek-overseas-debt-funding?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s “high quality” companies have been encouraged to borrow medium- and long-term debt abroad, amid a contraction in offshore US dollar fundraising for Chinese firms this year following a series of defaults by property developers.

But the companies must comply with several criteria, including compliance with national policies, while their business operations must align with national macroeconomic controls and industrial policies, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Tuesday.

Over the past year, the company’s revenue must rank within the top five in its industry, with debt-to-asset ratio and other financial metrics outperforming the industry average.

The companies must also possess an international credit rating of investment grade, meaning BBB or above, or a domestic credit rating of AAA.

The new measures aim to expand “high-level opening up, improve the convenience of cross-border investment and financing, and effectively utilise foreign debt to support high-quality development”, the NDRC said.

China’s top economic planner launched a public consultation in March, pointing to its intention to relax some of the requirements as long as the firms were deemed to be qualified, which would reduce the amount of time needed to raise funds abroad.

“It will greatly enhance the flexibility of high-quality enterprises’ foreign debt financing, save foreign debt financing costs, and improve foreign debt financing efficiency,” said Beijing-based DeHeng Law Offices in a commentary on its WeChat social media account on Tuesday.

“It will help high-quality enterprises better utilise the two markets and resources at home and abroad, and give full play to the role of foreign debt funds in serving high-quality development.”

Since requirements were eased in 2015, China’s offshore corporate bond issuance climbed to US$129 billion in 2021, from US$25 billion in 2015.

However, issuance has dropped significantly since 2022, following a record volume of defaults, said Chang Li, director at S&P Global Ratings, who pointed to the NDRC responding by tightening debt standards.

“In other words, lower quality issuers will continue to face tightening regulations when issuing offshore debts, while high quality issuers are still able to access offshore markets as they were before,” Li said.

Li added that the move announced by the NDRC on Tuesday does not apply to property developers and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which are still facing tightened regulations

Debt by Chinese real estate companies, financial institutions and LGFVs made up more than half of the US dollar offshore bond market.

High default risks in the property market and debt pressure facing LGFVs, as well as volatility in interest rates in China and the United States, are among the reasons net financing by Chinese companies in the offshore market contracted in the first half of the year, analysts said.

LGFVs are hybrid entities that are both public and corporate and were created to skirt restrictions on local government borrowing.

China, which keeps a tight grip on cross-border capital flow, maintains an annual quota on foreign debt by domestic companies.

As of the end of 2023, China’s total outstanding foreign debt stood at US$2.45 trillion, with medium- to long-term debt accounting for 44 per cent, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

“The pressure of bonds coming to mature is still large, and the scale of net financing remains shrinking,” Dagong Global Credit Rating said last week.

“The net financing amount is negative except for a slight positive in February and March,” adding that net financing had contracted by US$27.68 billion in the first half of the year.

China woman to abort unborn boy with ‘aggression’ genes after random online ‘advice’

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3271570/china-woman-abort-unborn-boy-aggression-genes-after-random-online-advice?utm_source=rss_feed

A woman in China is preparing to abort her baby boy after being told he has a condition which many people mistakenly believe means he will grow up with aggressive and violent tendencies.

Prenatal checks revealed that the unborn child has XYY syndrome, a genetic condition which has been wrongly linked to criminal behaviour.

On July 14, six-month pregnant Jiujiu from Sichuan province, southwestern China, shared her prenatal examination report on Douyin which indicated that her unborn baby was highly likely to have the syndrome.

Also known as Jacob’s syndrome, the condition leaves the child with an extra Y chromosome. XYY syndrome is a genetic condition found exclusively in males.

“Generally speaking, individuals with XYY syndrome might appear more masculine and taller than others,” said Qi Qianrong, an embryologist at the Reproductive Medicine Centre of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University in the central province of Hubei told the Post.

“The condition is not rare, with reported cases being one in 1,000. Many people have chromosomal abnormal conditions, which usually do not affect normal life,” Qi added.

Studies show people with XYY syndrome may exhibit an attention deficit, hyperactivity and impulsive behaviour, but aggression or psychopathy are not common.

However, the vast majority of the 190,000 comments on Jiujiu’s post advocated a termination, with some saying the child would have been “born evil”.

“Children with XYY syndrome have a high tendency to criminal behaviour and often resort to violence,” said one person on Douyin.

“I support the abortion. Having this child is like placing a time bomb around everyone,” said another.

On July 18, Jiujiu decided to terminate the pregnancy after consulting doctors and discussing it with her family.

“Given the uncertainties after birth and my situation as in an ordinary family, I decided to terminate the pregnancy to be responsible to myself and the unborn child,” she said.

“I hope people will not stigmatise XYY syndrome. You should understand the reality of this condition from a doctor. Regardless, losing the child is a painful experience for me,” Jiujiu added.

Her decision reignited public attention on the misunderstandings surrounding XYY syndrome.

“This is a brave and responsible mother. Respect her decision and wish her well,” said one online observer on Douyin.

“I hope people can break the misunderstanding. No one is born a bad person,” said another.

Embryologist Qi said: “People’s understanding of XYY syndrome is one-sided. They exaggerate traits such as violence or criminality. Some criminals have the syndrome, but it doesn’t mean all with the syndrome will be criminals,” Qi said.

She stressed that many children with XYY syndrome that she has treated are no different from normal individuals and should not be discriminated against.

“A person’s character is not solely determined by chromosomes but also by family environment, education and other factors,” Qi added.

China targets childhood obesity with urgent new guidelines on food and exercise

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3271713/china-targets-childhood-obesity-urgent-new-guidelines-food-and-exercise?utm_source=rss_feed

With one-fifth of Chinese aged 6-17 deemed overweight or obese, Beijing is looking to increase physical exercise and improve nutrition to safeguard the health of young people.

On Monday, the Ministry of Education, top public health bodies and the General Administration of Sport rolled out national technical guidelines for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in primary and middle school pupils.

According to the guidelines, urgent intervention is needed to address the “major public health issue” among these children.

The guidelines also said interventions were needed for other common conditions such as myopia and scoliosis, to which poor diet and not enough outdoor activity were contributing factors.

Experts have raised the alarm about the health issue, most recently in May when Shen Hongbing, director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, told an obesity science conference in May that more than 10 per cent of children under 6 are overweight or obese.

To address the problem, schools should provide at least one physical education class a day and ensure enough time for students to move around between classes, according to the guidelines.

They also call for greater awareness of healthy eating habits – including lower salt, oil and added sugar in diets – as well as the use of “scientific interventions” and the hiring of qualified nutritionists at schools.

Schools, supermarkets, restaurants and other food outlets should also use nutrition labels on their products or health tips for students.

To monitor the conditions, the guidelines called for regular health screenings and health records for students, with timely feedback for parents.

Yan Weili, an expert in childhood overweight and obesity from Fudan University, said tackling the issue was difficult.

“Reversing the childhood overweight and obesity trend is not easy, but national-level guidelines can raise public awareness of the existing problem,” Yan said.

According to Yan, the prevention and control measures mentioned in the guidelines were scientific, but there might be issues implementing them, including the need for the children themselves to want to make changes.

“Early detection of overweight and obesity has long been realised, but external influences have a limited effect. The unhealthy lifestyle of these students needs to be changed under their internal motivation,” she said.

In addition, China lacked national guidelines on interventions and research regarding children who were already overweight and obese, Yan said.

Researchers at Peking University and the United Nations Children’s Fund have proposed taxes on sugary drinks to help deal with the health and economic implications of obesity among young people.

“The rapid increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity in China has a significant health and economic impact,” the team said in a paper published by The Lancet Regional Health in December.

They estimate that in addition to reducing life expectancy, the conditions could lead to total economic losses of 218 trillion yuan (US$30 trillion) in China between 2025 and 2092 if there is no intervention.

The research suggested that imposing a 20 per cent tax on sugar-sweetened drinks and restricting marketing of unhealthy foods to children, would produce the best health and economic gains.

In 2020, China set a target to lower the rate of overweight and obesity among juveniles by 70 per cent between 2020 and 2030 from the previous decade.

Research published by The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology in 2021 said measures introduced to reduce the incidence of overweight and obesity at the national level were not effective in curbing the rise in the conditions.

In Hong Kong, the overweight and obesity rate among primary and secondary school students in the 2022-23 school year was nearly 20 per cent, according to officials in January.

Unhealthy body weight among young people is considered an issue around the world.

Globally, more than 390 million children and adolescents aged 5–19 years were overweight and obese in 2022, with the rate rising dramatically from just 8 per cent in 1990 to 20 per cent in 2022, according to the World Health Organization.

“Despite Western countries having recognised and acted on the problem of childhood overweight and obesity earlier than China, the long-term trend of the epidemic is not optimistic and is still on the rise,” Yan said.

China’s critical third-stage rocket engine passes test for crewed moon mission

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3271690/chinas-critical-third-stage-rocket-engine-passes-test-crewed-moon-mission?utm_source=rss_feed

China has successfully tested the third-stage engine of its Long March-10 moon rocket, moving one step closer towards putting Chinese astronauts on the lunar surface before 2030.

The YF-75E engine, which burns liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, was fired on Saturday at a newly completed test rig, according to its developer the state-owned Academy of Aerospace Liquid Propulsion Technology (AALPT).

“The test verified the feasibility of the engine’s long-term operation in space, and came to a full success,” the academy – a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation – said on its WeChat account on Tuesday.

“It means China can now test liquid hydrogen-liquid oxygen engines for thousands of seconds … This will strongly support the implementation of the nation’s manned lunar exploration.”

The test rig was billed as the first of its kind in China and the largest in Asia when it was commissioned in May. Neither the academy nor a report by state broadcaster CCTV at the time mentioned where the facility is located.

According to the CCTV report in May, the test rig can simulate high-altitude vertical-flight conditions, including a vacuum environment with pressure under one kilopascal, over thousands of seconds at a time.

China has been making steady progress towards its goal to put astronauts on the moon, with initial testing on the Long March-10’s propulsion system completed last month.

The three-stage superheavy Long March-10 – comparable to Texas-based SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy – is 92.5 metres (303ft) long, with three times the capacity of China’s most powerful rocket to date, the Long March-5.

The Long March-10 will be able to lift 70 tonnes into low-Earth orbit and 27 tonnes into trans-lunar injection trajectories, according to its developers.

Its first stage is powered by seven YF-100K engines, which burn a combination of kerosene and liquid oxygen. With two boosters, each with their own set of seven YF-100K engines, the rocket will generate a massive 2,678 tonnes of thrust at lift-off.

The rocket’s second stage consists of two YF-100M engines, which also burn kerosene and liquid oxygen, while the third and final stage will be powered by three YF-75E engines.

The Long March-10 rocket will be used in two launches for China’s mission to land astronauts on the moon. One will carry the Mengzhou spacecraft and its crew, while the other will launch the Lanyue landing craft.

The spacecraft will rendezvous and dock before the two astronauts transfer to the moon lander and head for the lunar surface, where they will drive a rover to carry out scientific investigations and collect rock samples.

Mission completed, the crew will return to the Lanyue and leave the moon’s surface to dock with the orbiting Mengzhou for the journey home.

Chinese space officials said in April that they were on track to meet the 2030 deadline, with manufacturing under way of prototype components for the mission, including the lunar landing suits for the astronauts, as well as the space vehicles.

Luxury brands in China take hit on low consumer confidence as economy slows

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3271697/luxury-brands-china-take-hit-low-consumer-confidence-economy-slows?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s slowing growth has begun to weigh on luxury brands such as LVMH and Chow Tai Fook, as consumers in the world’s second-largest economy tighten their belts amid economic uncertainty.

LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group with brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw sales in Asia, excluding Japan, decline by 13 per cent in the first half of the year, according to its earnings report released on Tuesday.

“An unfavourable market environment in China” has also contributed to a 15 per cent decline in the sales of champagne and other wines in the region, excluding Japan, where China is the largest market for such goods.

Local jewellery brand Chow Tai Fook took a severe hit in the second quarter, reporting a 20 per cent slump in retail sales, amid intensifying economic headwinds. Mainland China sales fell 19 per cent. Combined sales in other markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, plummeted 29 per cent, the company said in a filing on Tuesday.

“Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau recorded negative same-store sales growth as macro challenges continued to impact consumers’ spending,” Chow Tai Fook chairman Henry Cheng Kar-shun said in the company filings. The high volatility in gold prices also caused “hiccups” in gold jewellery demand in the three months ended June, he added.

These disappointing sales figures underscore broader concerns about Chinese consumer spending, which has remained weak amid a slowing economy, lower income growth and elevated unemployment levels.

Retail sales rose by a slower-than-expected 2 per cent year on year in June, marking the weakest growth in 18 months. Meanwhile, Chinese households added 9.27 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) in new deposits in the first half of the year, bringing the total figure to a record 147 trillion yuan, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

Beijing has stepped up efforts to stem sliding confidence and battle the slowdown. The central bank on Monday cut its key short-term policy rate and mortgage reference rate, following a treasury bond intervention to shore up the long-end yield amid weakening investor sentiment.

That may not be enough to move the needle, as the rate cut was “more symbolic in nature” and there is limited scope for further efforts that would be large enough to significantly impact China’s growth outlook, analysts at BCA Research said in a note on Tuesday.

Authorities are likely to tread carefully to avoid triggering rapid devaluation of the yuan, which could spark panic in financial markets, undermine consumer and business confidence, and delay economic recovery, although the challenges facing the economy warrant further rate cuts and stimulus, they said.

“There are no quick policy fixes to China’s slow pace of household consumption growth,” economists at Rhodium Group said in a report last week.

“The imbalances in China’s economy have widened for several years, and only a complete restructuring of the economy, the fiscal system, and a government-led redistribution of income will change that pattern,” they said.

Philippines to forge new defence ties with Singapore amid China tensions

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3271714/philippines-forge-new-defence-ties-singapore-amid-china-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines is signing a defence pact with Singapore on Wednesday that will allow their militaries to broaden their engagement, including holding joint exercises to prepare for humanitarian emergencies and other contingencies, Philippine officials said.

Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro will sign the Defense Cooperation Agreement with his counterpart in Singapore, two Philippine officials said on condition of anonymity ahead of the signing. Details of the agreement were not immediately available.

Since territorial hostilities between China and the Philippines surged last year at two hotly disputed shoals in the South China Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s administration has taken steps to forge new security alliances with a number of Asian and Western countries and allowed a US military presence at more Philippine bases under a 2014 defence pact.

In his state of the nation address before the Philippine Congress on Monday, Marcos stressed that the Philippines would not back down in the territorial disputes but stressed his administration would only use peaceful means to resolve any dispute and would build security alliances with friendly countries.

“In the face of challenges to our territorial sovereignty, we will assert our rights and interests in the same fair and pacific way that we have always done,” Marcos said, adding that efforts were continuing “to strengthen our defence posture, both through developing self-reliance and through partnerships with like-minded states.”

Earlier this month, the Philippines and Japan signed a defence pact named the Reciprocal Access Agreement allowing the deployment of their forces in each other’s territory for joint military exercises as both countries face an increasingly assertive China. Japan and the Philippines have separate maritime territorial disputes with China.

The agreement will take effect after it is ratified by the two countries’ legislatures.

The Philippines is holding separate talks with Canada, New Zealand and France on similar defence agreements, the two Philippine officials said.

Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States and their leaders held three-way talks in April at the White House, where President Joe Biden renewed Washington’s “ironclad” commitment to defend them.

Elderly Chinese students fill empty kindergartens in Shanxi province as birth rate falls

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3271646/elderly-chinese-students-fill-empty-kindergartens-shanxi-province-birth-rate-falls?utm_source=rss_feed

Elderly and middle-aged people are filling the empty classrooms of a kindergarten in China’s northern Shanxi province.

Preschools are closing as the country’s falling birth rate has led to fewer pupils.

To stay in business, some establishments have been welcoming older people instead.

China KOL goes from amputee despair to delight thanks to cutting-edge robotic hand

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/china-personalities/article/3271541/china-kol-goes-amputee-despair-delight-thanks-cutting-edge-robotic-hand?utm_source=rss_feed

An influencer in China who went from an avid sportswoman to possibly the first person in China to wear a brain-controlled robot hand has inspired many with her optimism.

Jessica Du Yanjia, 36, was an expert at free-diving and skydiving, who founded her own swimsuit brand and amassed a large fan base that enjoyed the posts about her global adventures.

An accident in December last year brought an abrupt end to her sporting passions.

She had left a grill on in her home while cleaning up after a barbecue, then took a shower and passed out due to excessive carbon monoxide inhalation – with her left hand in hot charcoal.

She woke up hours later and called an ambulance that took her to hospital where a doctor told her that her hand had to be amputated.

Du said she experienced all the “despair, pain, fear, helplessness and even extreme thoughts” that a traumatised person could feel, yet it only took her a week to accept the fact that she had lost her hand forever.

“No matter how anxious or in pain I was, I could not bring it back,” Du said.

Instead, she started to focus on the solution of “how to face my future life and take care of myself”.

In May, Du was fitted with a brain-controlled robotic hand.

The device can perform a normal hand’s common gestures by sensing the movements of the two muscles at the bottom of her palm – the only uninjured part of her left hand.

She said she had been practising the movements since March, and when she tried the hand for the first time the technicians were surprised at how fast she adapted.

Du said the tragedy has helped her appreciate how important love is in her life.

Growing up with divorced parents, she used to jokingly refer to herself as an “orphan”.

As a result, she avoided intimate relationships. But the accident made her realise just how much love she got from her parents and friends.

She gradually started to return to some of her favourite sports, such as yoga and diving, from the beginner’s level.

She was enthusiastic about exploring what she could do with her new hand.

In one video Du posted on Xiaohongshu, she humorously showed what she could squeeze with the robotic fingers, which has a grip strength of 40kg. The best she could do so far was crush a blueberry.

She also gave her robot hand manicures.

After the accident, Du removed all content on her social media accounts, but later returned as “Jessica Du 2.0”.

She said she had “made a gain” from the accident by being able to “experience completely two different lives in just a few decades.”

Du’s optimistic attitude has inspired many people on social media.

“Now you have one beautiful hand and a cool hand,” one person said.

“Your left hand has turned into a wing, taking you to different places,” said another.

“Despite sounding chilled and fun, she must have gone through a lot of physical and mental pain and struggles. She is amazing,” someone else said.

China’s third plenum shows it is ‘not in the mood’ to slow down on nuclear arms

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3271599/chinas-third-plenum-shows-it-not-mood-slow-down-nuclear-arms?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s third plenum shows it is “not in the mood” to restrain its nuclear weapons capability as it learns from Russia’s deterrence strategy in Ukraine, observers said after a key policy meeting of the ruling Communist Party.

However, they also warned about the risks of a nuclear arms race with the United States as Beijing sought “respect” for its core interests, especially Taiwan.

During the party’s third plenum last week, the Central Committee pledged to “speed up the development of strategic deterrence forces”, according to a detailed document of the committee’s decisions released on Sunday. The expression is generally taken to refer to nuclear prowess.

In order to develop a “new framework of [military] services and arms”, China would accelerate its “strategic deterrence forces, develop new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, while … [strengthening] traditional combat forces”, the document said.

Those are among a range of measures, from socioeconomic to military, to be realised by 2029 – when the People’s Republic celebrates its 80th anniversary.

China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal in recent years. In 2021, President Xi Jinping made his first call to “speed up the creation of a high-quality strategic deterrence and joint combat system”.

This was reiterated in Xi’s work report to the 20th party congress a year later, when he again pledged to “establish a strong system of strategic deterrence”.

“The reuse of this language in the decision document of the recent third plenum shows that China continues to prioritise nuclear and non-nuclear strategic capabilities,” said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The fast improvement of both the quality and quantity of China’s nuclear weapon systems will likely continue in the next few years, including nuclear warheads and their delivery systems such as missiles, launch vehicles, silos, and strategic submarines.”

Zhao said a key aim of China’s nuclear build-up – along with its overall military modernisation – was to “reshape US perceptions of the power balance, compelling Washington to accept a risen China and ‘respect’ its core interests”.

“[Hence] China is not in the mood of restraining its nuclear and other military capabilities,” he said.

The Pentagon estimates that China had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads in 2023, from 400 the previous year.

While China’s stockpile is expanding rapidly – the Pentagon predicts its warhead numbers to exceed 1,000 by 2030 – it still lags far behind the US and Russia.

Russia has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. According to the US-based Arms Control Association, Russia has more than 4,300 warheads in stockpile to the US’ more than 3,700, while for deployed warheads, the numbers are over 1,500 and over 1,400, respectively.

Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor, said it was “crucial” for China to increase the number of nuclear warheads and weapons, since it had “significantly fewer” than the US and Russia, and it also needed to improve the “quality” of its nuclear arsenal to catch up with them.

China would prioritise the development of “a triad of strategic nuclear forces”, Song said, referring to ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and air-launched weapons.

Hong Kong-based military analyst Liang Guoliang said that, besides warheads and missiles, China would work to build quieter, larger, and more autonomous nuclear strategic submarines, which offer higher speed and better living space for crew.

Beijing would also double down on developing long-range strategic bombers and nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to help boost its “strategic deterrence forces”, Liang said.

“I am not sure whether [China’s] hypersonic missiles can carry nuclear warheads at the moment, but I believe this will be a direction of development,” he said.

Song said the conflict in Ukraine had “demonstrated to the international community that the US refrained from intervening due to fears of Russia’s nuclear arsenal”.

According to Song, the takeaway was that “despite the US’ intention to intervene [in Taiwan], once China possesses potent nuclear weapons capable of striking the continental US in retaliation, it will inevitably restrain itself”.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, and has repeatedly held up the issue as a “red line” in its ties with Washington.

The US, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is legally bound to supply it with weapons.

Moscow, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons if Washington and its Nato allies send troops to Ukraine or threaten Russia’s territorial integrity.

Its latest warnings have included tactical nuclear weapon drills near the Ukraine border and in occupied areas, after what it labelled as “provocative” remarks by Western officials.

“The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the global nuclear order in several ways and has certainly cast a shadow on the progress of nuclear disarmament,” said Amrita Jash, an assistant professor at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education in India.

“The most pressing question has been: if Ukraine had nuclear weapons, would it still have been attacked?” she said.

Lyle Goldstein, the director of Asia Engagement at US think tank Defence Priorities, said while the US-China military rivalry and Beijing’s major nuclear weapons build-up began at least a decade ago, “the Ukraine war and the rather acute tensions surrounding the Taiwan issue at present likely do impact these calculations”.

However, there were “some encouraging signs”, he said, in that many Chinese experts saw the “serious consideration of Russian use of nuclear weapons in this war [as] appalling, risky, and strategically dubious”.

China continues to maintain a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy but according to Goldstein, its approach to strategic deterrence – historically different to the West’s – is gradually shifting.

He identified the change in Beijing’s attitude from a “minimal but efficient second-strike deterrent” to accepting that large, diverse arsenals were “normal” and that the possibility of limited nuclear war could not be ruled out.

To prevent US-China nuclear rivalry or even a nuclear conflict, “the simple answer is that we must all act urgently to reach a near-term compromise solution on the difficult Taiwan issue”.

According to Goldstein, the self-ruled island is the “only issue that could spark a nuclear war between the two superpowers”.

“The only way to avoid that outcome [of nuclear conflict], and the closely related problem of an incredibly expensive and wasteful rivalry … is to embark on a set of specific compromises involving Washington, Taipei and Beijing. This is difficult, but quite achievable.”

Last week, China called off arms control and non-proliferation talks with the US over its latest arms sales to Taiwan. The dialogue had only resumed last year after years of bilateral tensions.

According to Zhao, the move from Beijing “underscores its continued entanglement of arms control and non-proliferation issues with other high-level issues in the bilateral relationship”.

Ukraine urges China to play ‘constructive’ role in security following Putin-Kim pact

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3271611/ukraine-urges-china-play-constructive-role-security-following-putin-kim-pact?utm_source=rss_feed

Ukraine hopes China will play a constructive role in regional and global security following the recent signing of a treaty by Russia and North Korea that includes mutual help in the event of an attack on either country.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told This Week In Asia that the Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement threatened to disrupt the security balance in the region. Kuleba is in China on Tuesday for a four-day visit following an invitation by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

This is Kuleba’s first visit to China since the war began and talks would focus on how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and on a possible Chinese role in reaching a settlement.

“The signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and the Russian Federation, which enables Russia to provide high-precision weapons, transfer advanced military technologies and provide other support to North Korea, disrupts the security balance … creates additional risks to regional and global security,” Kuleba said last week in an email interview with This Week In Asia.

“We also hope that the People’s Republic of China will play a constructive role in overcoming the challenges to regional and global security that are growing as Russia and North Korea expand their military cooperation,” Kuleba said.

China has said it is neutral in the war between Ukraine and Russia. However, Beijing has faced disapproval from some countries – particularly from the United States and its allies – for not condemning the invasion of Ukraine and providing economic support to Russia amid international sanctions against Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the mutual defence agreement with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un during his visit to Pyongyang last month. Kim has offered his “full support” to Russia on the Ukraine conflict and hailed ties between Pyongyang and Moscow as an “alliance”.

In response to the treaty signing, the US warned Pyongyang last month against joining Russian troops in Ukraine, with Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder saying North Korean troops would become “cannon fodder” on the battlefield.

Kuleba said there had been no confirmed sightings of North Korean troops on Ukrainian soil so far.

“As of now, we have no confirmed information that the DPRK has taken any practical steps in this regard. But we keep monitoring the situation together with our partners,” Kuleba added.

Nonetheless, North Korea has supplied at least “2.6 million artillery shells and up to 60 ballistic missiles” that were used by Russia in bombing Ukraine, according to Kuleba.

“Although in general the quality of North Korean weapons is quite low with a high failure rate, they still give Russian troops some artillery advantage on the battlefield. That is indeed a matter of concern to us,” Kuleba said.

With more death and destruction inflicted by Russian troops in Ukraine, North Korea might feel emboldened to challenge the stability of the Korean peninsula and across Asia, Kuleba said.

“We must confront these threats together and treat them as one global challenge. Each piece of support for Ukraine today is an investment in the stability of Asia,” he added.

Several media reports say North Korea could send a large number of engineering and construction troops to help Russia carry out “reconstruction” works in the occupied cities in Ukraine following the treaty signing.

Citing a South Korean government official, TV Chosun reported that North Korean engineering troops would be involved in the heavily bombed Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

In an interview with Espreso TV in June, Ukrainian Major Yehor Checherynda said tunnels were built extensively during the Korean war, where engineering personnel dug barracks and control centres of up to a depth of 100 metres, making them impenetrable to US air raids.

“Unfortunately, the [North] Koreans have experience in this area and Ukrainian Defence Forces must take this into account to prevent such operations on Ukrainian territory,” Checherynda was quoted as saying.

Kuleba said Russia had been recruiting mercenaries from many countries in an attempt to break through the front lines and advance deeper into Ukraine’s territory.

Citing Ukrainian data, Kuleba said Russia had used recruits from Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Uganda, India, Nepal and Cuba.

Many of the mercenaries were “tricked” into fighting the Russian army, as attested by their testimonies after they were captured as prisoners of war by Ukrainian forces, he added.

“I take this opportunity to warn all people in various countries to never trust Russian offers. Russia does not value human life at all. They will promise some things, but you may end up wounded or killed on Ukrainian soil. Do not become Russia’s cannon fodder,” Kuleba said.

The foreign minister also addressed the US presidential race, saying bipartisan support for Ukraine had been retained n the third consecutive year of the Russian invasion.

Kuleba’s comments were made before US President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday. Biden has expressed support for Vice-President Kamala Harris to be chosen as the Democrat candidate against the former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump in the November election.

“We are convinced that it is in the strategic interest of the United States to support Ukraine and enable Ukrainians to defeat Russian aggression and terror,” Kuleba said.

“It is solely upon the American people to decide who will be the next president of the United States. We maintain communication with both parties and we know that both US presidential candidates are perfectly aware of the choice of Americans to support Ukraine.”

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Chinese-born scientist in US tells of ‘fear and desperation’ from Trump-era convictions

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3271653/chinese-born-scientist-us-tells-fear-and-desperation-trump-era-convictions?utm_source=rss_feed

Vindicated Chinese-born scientist Franklin Tao stood in a US House of Representatives building on Tuesday, speaking publicly for the first time after being arrested in 2019 on charges of hiding involvement with a Chinese university.

“It has been 1,786 days. Each of those days was lived with fear and desperation,” he said of the period from his arrest to a US appeal court tossing out his conviction on July 11.

Tao was one of about two dozen academics who were charged as part of the US Justice Department’s “China Initiative”, which launched in 2018 during former president Donald Trump’s administration and aimed to counter suspected Chinese economic espionage and research theft.

Speaking at an event co-hosted by the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus and United Chinese Americans, the 52-year-old chemical engineer said his immediate hope was to return to the University of Kansas, where he was a tenured associate professor before the school fired him after he was convicted of four counts in 2022.

Later that year, a district judge overturned three of the counts, all related to wire fraud, citing a lack of evidence that he received money or property for work with Fuzhou University, Fujian province, in southeastern China.

Then, earlier this month, an appeal court in Denver threw out the final count about making a false statement. The court said Tao’s failure to inform his university about his affiliation with the Chinese university did not have any material effect on any pending federal funding decisions.

Tao had initially gone to trial in 2022, facing eight counts of wire fraud and making false statements.

According to court documents, Tao’s case began as an espionage investigation when a visiting scholar at the University of Kansas sent the FBI an anonymous tip and impersonated others to make additional allegations. The FBI found no evidence of espionage but discovered that Tao had potentially accepted a second full-time appointment at Fuzhou University and hid it from Kansas.

Prosecutors said that information was relevant to the decisions of federal agencies funding his research, the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation.

Tao said on Tuesday that his victory was bittersweet. “I have lost almost everything. My academic career … has been destroyed.”

“And this fight was extremely expensive,” he added, noting that his legal fees added up to US$2.3 million.

Tao’s lawyer, Peter Zeidenberg, said on Tuesday he represented dozens of individuals like Tao who “were caught up and charged in multiple felonies for civil paperwork errors in their grant applications”.

“They’re not stealing money. They’re not diverting money. They’re not sharing secrets with anyone who isn’t allowed,” he said.

The Justice Department under President Joe Biden ended the China Initiative in 2022 following several failed prosecutions and criticism that it stifled research and fuelled bias against Asians, although the department said it would continue pursuing cases over national security threats posed by China.

In recent months, lawmakers and advocacy groups have pushed back against efforts to bring back the initiative, including one in a House Republican funding bill that was ultimately removed.

Judy Chu, California Democrat and chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, said on Tuesday that she and her team were “constantly on [their] watch” for such efforts.

Chu highlighted ongoing efforts, including individual bills such as Florida Senator Rick Scott’s “Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act”, and attempts to attach the initiative to a large piece of legislation that would have a higher chance of passing.

Scrutiny of ethnic Chinese scientists has created a chilling effect. A study conducted from December 2021 to March 2022 by researchers from Harvard, Princeton and MIT found that among 1,229 US-based Chinese scientists, about 61 per cent had considered relocating.

The same study found that 1,415 US-based Chinese scientists had switched their affiliation from US to Chinese institutions in 2021, an almost 22 per cent jump from 2020, and more than three times the number compared to 2011.

The study also noted that between 2011 and 2020, applications for National Science Foundation grants from Asian-American scientists dropped 28 per cent compared with the overall decline of 17 per cent.

“With few convictions and multiple dismissals, the China Initiative has tragically damaged the lives and careers of too many innocent Americans and has actually hurt the nation’s ability to lead in global scientific research and innovation,” said the Committee of 100, a non-partisan organisation of prominent Chinese-Americans.

A GoFundMe account has been set up to help defray Tao’s legal fees.

China, Hong Kong pools of ultra-rich shrink and Asia’s wealth engine cools, Altrata says

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3271654/china-hong-kong-pools-ultra-rich-shrink-and-asias-wealth-engine-cools-altrata-says?utm_source=rss_feed

The number of ultra-wealthy, defined as individuals with a net worth of more than US$30 million, in China fell for the second straight year in 2023 as a sluggish economy and a deepening real-estate downturn took their toll, with Hong Kong following a similar trend, according to a report by a New York-headquartered consultancy.

Altrata’s World Ultra Wealth Report 2024 also forecast that Asia’s run of creating more affluent individuals is running out of steam, but in the long-term it could overtake Europe as the region with the second-largest population of the wealthy set.

China now has 46,060 ultra wealthy individuals whose total wealth amounted to US$5.20 trillion, down from 2022’s tally of 47,190, with a cumulative wealth of US$5.3 trillion.

Hong Kong, with 12,546 ultra high net worth (UNHW) individuals, also recorded a slight dip in its population of wealthy citizens. Its population of wealthy people declined by 0.4 per cent to 12,545, with a total wealth of US$1.48 trillion, Altrata said.

The consultancy said Hong Kong showed a marked contrast to the gains in all the other leading ultra wealth cities, but said that it will remain a regional powerhouse owing to its unrivalled status as a nexus for financial flows between China and the global economy.

“The growth potential of the semi-autonomous territory has been weakened,” Altrata said. “The political clampdown in recent years and the heightened control by the mainland Chinese government has tempered investor sentiment and talent inflows among the super-rich, with wealth portfolios constrained by relatively weak returns from China-related assets.”

The report’s latest finding was largely similar to a January report by Hurun that stated that the US added 109 billionaires among its population, bringing its elite set to total to 800, while in China, there were 155 fewer billionaires, but remained the country with the highest number of such individuals with 814.

The Altrata report showed the super-rich in the US, whose numbers grew to 147,950 from 121,465 in 2022, had amassed a wealth pool of US$17.15 trillion in 2023, a rise of 28 per cent over the previous year.

“The top-ranked wealth centre of New York registered a 14 per cent rise in UHNW numbers, with asset portfolios in the world’s largest financial hub bolstered by the strong rebound in US and global equities, robust consumer spending and the overall resilience of the US economy,” the report said.

That wealth pile was driven by “tech-led capital market gains and a stand-out economic performance among its developed-market peers, overshadowing slight currency weakness and heightened political instability,” Altrata said.

Three of the world’s most valuable companies are all US-based tech firms, led by Microsoft, followed by Nvidia and then Apple – whose respective market capitalisations had already breached the US$3 trillion mark. Two more US-based firms rounded out the world’s five most valuable companies – Google and Amazon.

The study also noted that with Asia’s significant wealth expansion from 2000 to 2020, the region’s share of the global UHNW class is forecast to rise to 27 per cent in 2028, a 1 per cent increment from its 2023 share. The region will be home to the second-largest wealthy cohort following North America’s 39 per cent share. Europe will be relegated to third place, accounting for 24.8 per cent.

However, the report said Asia’s wealth creation catch-up process has “largely played out”.

“Asian growth is settling at a level below its pre-pandemic trend, although the broad outlook for wealth creation remains positive,” it said.

Overall, the world’s wealthy set increased by 7.6 per cent to a record 426,330 individuals in 2023. This exclusive group’s population is now more than 20 per cent larger than it was five years ago and their total net worth jumped 7.1 per cent to US$49.2 trillion.

In China for China: German firms buck trend, bring best tech and products to compete

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3271559/china-china-german-firms-buck-trend-bring-best-tech-and-products-compete?utm_source=rss_feed

With China long established as the world’s factory, the United States has led a push to divert manufacturing and supply chains away from the world’s second-largest economy. In this three-part series, we look at whether the widely termed “China plus one” strategy is working for global manufacturers. You can .

While a growing number of multinationals de-risk from China amid its changing economic landscape and persistent geological tensions with the West, a global leader in gear motors enlarges its investment in the country.

German industrial motion giant SEW-Eurodrive is facilitating a new investment plan in eastern China’s Suzhou city after starting construction in February on its third manufacturing base in the country, in the southern province of Guangdong.

“We are full of confidence in the prospects of our China business, as always,” said Zhao Gang, general manager of the German firm’s Suzhou operations.

Amid escalating trade frictions between China and the European Union, and against the backdrop of a broad decoupling trend, the family-run multinational is among a number of European firms – particularly advanced German manufacturers – that remain committed to China.

The country’s huge market size, coupled with a raft of charm offensives, have persuaded them to stay and increase their investment, but they are increasingly adopting an “in China for China” strategy to cope with fiercer competition from local companies and in the face of rising global supply-chain risks, according to executives of some of those firms.

Zhao spoke highly of China’s investment environment and said local governments were “very supportive” of foreign businesses, while growth potential in the massive market was a big reason behind his company’s optimism.

The firm has seven other assembly factories in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea and Australia, but combined sales in those places account for less than 20 per cent of what is generated by its China operations, he noted.

Joining SEW’s expanding China presence is German lens maker Zeiss, a global front runner in optics and optoelectronics.

The multinational launched a new manufacturing base in Suzhou on July 8 – its third China operation after Shanghai and Guangzhou, according to the Suzhou Daily newspaper.

This marks Zeiss’ “further deepening of localisation in China and upgrading of capabilities in local research and development and manufacturing”, the report said.

Last year, German businesses’ direct investment in China increased by 4.3 per cent to a record-high 11.9 billion euros (US$13 billion) despite their government’s calls to reduce exposure in the country, Reuters reported in February, quoting a study by the German Economic Institute (IW) based on official Bundesbank data.

The total investment in China by German firms in the last three years was equivalent to that they had made in the previous six years, the private economic research institute was quoted as saying.

This is against the backdrop of waning enthusiasm among European companies in recent years amid the region’s struggle to strike a balance between de-risking from China and cooperating with it.

EU investments as a proportion of China’s overall foreign direct investment (FDI) fell from 7.5 per cent in 2018 to 5.3 per cent in 2022, according to an annual FDI statistical bulletin released by the Ministry of Commerce.

Price pressure due to intense competition amid a rise of local companies is a concern most widely shared by German firms in China, according to a business confidence survey released last month by the German Chamber of Commerce in China (AHK Greater China).

In response to the issue, SEW’s Zhao said that his company “has brought the most advanced technology and products to China” and would continue to win the Chinese market with that.

The company’s sales to third-party purchasers in China cleared 10 billion yuan (US$1.4 billion) in 2021 and saw “steady growth” in the years since, he added.

According to the AHK survey, a slim majority of the companies operating in China – about 53 per cent – planned to increase their investment in the coming two years, though this marked a drop from 61 per cent when asked the same question last year.

That included Phoenix Contact China – another Germany-headquartered global leader in the industrial automation sector.

The firm is scheduled to start building a new logistics centre in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, in the first half of next year to mainly serve its local clients, according to its vice-president, Jiang Shimin.

Purchasing and manufacturing locally to serve the local market has become an important strategy for the company, he said.

“We’ve been increasing our purchases from local suppliers, and that proportion has been rising each year,” he said.

The Chinese government’s efforts in attracting foreign investment since China’s borders reopened in early 2023, including widening market access and loosening visa policies, have also paid off to some extent, according to Benoit Ikhelif, deputy general manager of Danish logistics company DSV’s China operations in Nanjing.

Though the three pandemic years were “not easy”, “we’re still here and still focus on China”, he said.

And a leading contributor to that is that the company has “very good communication with authorities here. They are very flexible, and they came to Sweden” after the pandemic, he noted.

Wooing back foreign investors has been a major economic theme for Beijing in the past year as it strives to keep gross domestic production (GDP) growth at around 5 per cent amid weak investor and consumer confidence.

Emphasising its openness to foreign companies, the Chinese government has pledged to ensure 100 per cent access to the manufacturing sector and to remove more restrictions in the service sector.

At a July 1 meeting on how to further lure foreign investment, Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng acknowledged that China’s attractiveness to foreign businesses was its large market, and he urged officials to turn that into “a tangible advantage in attracting investment”.

China attracted 498.9 billion yuan worth of FDI in the first half of this year, down more than 29 per cent from the same period in 2023, according to commerce ministry data.

However, over the same period, the number of newly registered foreign companies saw a 14 per cent rise from a year prior, according to the recently released figures.

Chen Fengying, a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations think tank in Beijing, said that despite recent trade frictions over China’s new-energy products, there was still room for economic collaboration between the EU and China.

Unlike the United States, which is becoming “more nationalist and closed”, Europe is still open, she said.

“Europe is no longer on an equal footing with the US in the world order it faces today. Putting aside ideology, the conflict with us is not as great as the US,” she said.

However, de-risking remains a trend among European firms, she noted, adding that new arrivals of foreign investments are mostly small in scale and backed by overseas Chinese.

Foreign firms operating in China have flagged a series of challenges to their continued operations there. These often-cited hurdles include an uncertain regulatory environment, an unfair playing field when competing with domestic companies, and geopolitical turmoil between China and its Western trade partners.

In contrast with the position of optimistic German manufacturers, there was a sharp overall rise in European firms experiencing a “decoupling” between their headquarters and China operations over the past two years, triggering “a slowdown in existing operations and a reduced ability to capitalise on new projects or investment plans” in China, according to a report released by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China in May.

And behind the decoupling trend, it said, was a declining number of Europeans employed by their China operations. And this factor is said to have contributed to a loss of mutual understanding and trust.

China may take ‘tough measures’ in Sabina Shoal stand-off with Philippines, analysts say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3271577/china-may-take-tough-measures-sabina-shoal-stand-philippines-analysts-say?utm_source=rss_feed

Beijing is likely to retaliate forcefully if Manila refuses to budge on the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, observers have warned.

The atoll, part of the contested Spratly Islands, threatens to become a new flashpoint between the two sides.

In April, the Philippines accused of China of trying to build an artificial island there and sent the coastguard ship BRP Teresa Magbanua to the area.

It has since accused Beijing of trying to “intimidate” its forces, including by deploying its largest coastguard vessel, nicknamed “the monster” this month.

Beijing rejected these accusations, saying Manila was “vilifying” China and trying to “mislead the international community” and it has repeatedly said its actions in the area are lawful.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media has accused Philippine coastguard vessels of trying to deliver “suspected” building materials including cement to the ship, an accusation Manila denied.

Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor, said China would take “tough measures” if Manila “insisted on its provocations”.

“China’s current restraint does not mean we are weak,” said Song, urging Manila to not make any “strategic misjudgments”.

“If China takes action, it will never lose,” he warned.

Wu Shicun, founder of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told media earlier this month that Beijing could “take the initiative” and tow the Philippine vessel away.

China has built a string of artificial islands and islands in parts of the South China Sea it controls, but Wu insisted there was no plan to do that at Sabina Shoal.

He said Beijing wanted to avoid a repeat of what happened at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines grounded the BRP Sierra Madre, a second world war landing craft, in 1999.

The reef has seen a string of clashes between the two sides this year, including an incident last month when, according to Manila, a Chinese coastguard vessel rammed a resupply ship, injuring eight sailors, including one who lost his thumb.

While China and the Philippines reached an agreement on Monday to defuse tensions in the area, within hours of it being struck they had started to dispute some key elements of the deal.

Wu said the Philippines had promised to remove the BRP Sierra Madre from the Second Thomas Shoal – a pledge Manila denies making – adding: “It’s been 25 years and now the crisis at the Second Thomas Shoal is even greater.”

According to Song, the growing capabilities of China’s coastguard and the presence of a military base on nearby Mischief Reef, mean “if the Philippines wants to repeat the same old tricks, it will be impossible to do so. It’s not 1999, the Philippines can no longer succeed.”

Although the United States has criticised China’s actions, and says it remains committed to its ally, Song said it would be a “complete miscalculation” on Manila’s part to trust Washington and it would become a “pawn for the US to maintain its global hegemony”.

Song said: “We will not bully any country in the South China Sea, but we will not show mercy when safeguarding China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea.”

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, described the current situation at Sabina Shoal as a “stalemate”.

He said China would find it easier to maintain its presence and warned there was a risk of escalation if it tried to “actively interdict” Philippine attempts to supply the BRP Teresa Magbanua or start building facilities.

Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila, said: “There are high chances that Sabina Shoal can become a harbinger of more misunderstandings and armed attacks if trust is not further built between the two parties.”

He said the deployment of Chinese vessels to the region “showed the mistrust of Beijing” towards Manila.

But he said the Philippines was “no longer intimidated” by the Chinese coastguard and was prepared to counter Beijing’s “grey-zone tactics” – or methods of coercion that fell short of warfare.

“There is more reason for the Philippines now to be confident as more countries would like to forge defence agreements with its armed forces,” he said, citing a recent agreement to conduct joint exercises with Japan.

Koh suggested that Manila might already be looking at new responses to Chinese interventions, pointing to recent reports that the Philippines was considering conducting rotation and resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal with foreign partners.

“If the Chinese exhibit signs of trying to undermine the Philippine presence in Sabina Shoal, we should assume that Manila might consider similar approaches to counter Beijing’s moves,” he said.

Additional reporting by Laura Zhou

‘200 Alice Guos’: fugitive Philippine mayor’s case stokes fears of Chinese infiltration

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3271596/200-alice-guos-fugitive-philippine-mayors-case-stokes-fears-chinese-infiltration?utm_source=rss_feed

They could be neighbours, local officials, even elected leaders – but in reality, they may be foreign spies or criminals masquerading as Filipinos, hidden in plain sight.

That’s the disturbing warning from Philippine officials and analysts as the government moves to implement a full ban on offshore gaming operators, an industry that has become a magnet for Chinese nationals engaged in a litany of illicit activities.

The case of Alice Guo, a fugitive mayor accused of being a Chinese spy, highlights the depth of this systemic vulnerability. “The idea that fake Filipinos can run for office, buy properties and firearms is disturbing, especially now that we are witnessing malign influence activities in the Philippines,” said Sherwin Ona, a visiting fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taiwan.

The alarm only grew louder on Monday when President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr announced a ban on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (Pogos) during his state of the nation address, condemning the industry’s ties to “financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, even murder”.

With Guo still at large and the authorities uncovering hundreds of falsified birth certificates belonging to Chinese nationals, officials warn this could be scratching the surface – a troubling glimpse into how foreign actors have exploited the country’s legal and administrative vulnerabilities to burrow deep within Filipino society.

Guo, the fugitive mayor of Bamban in Tarlac province, has repeatedly ignored subpoenas to testify before the Senate. Her known assets have been frozen and the Supreme Court has issued a warrant for her arrest – though authorities do not know her current whereabouts.

Guo’s troubles began in May, when she was linked to a raided Pogo compound in her hometown of Bamban, Tarlac. The investigation quickly zeroed-in on the murky details of Guo’s own background, including the puzzling fact that she only obtained a birth certificate at the age of 17.

Despite her insistence that she is a true-blue Filipino, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) has found troubling evidence to the contrary. Fingerprint analysis revealed Guo’s true identity to be Guo Hua Ping, a Chinese national who entered the country as a teenager in 2003 on a Chinese passport.

And Guo’s case appears to be just the tip of the iceberg. Last week, the NBI announced the discovery of nearly 1,200 falsified birth certificates, mostly belonging to Chinese nationals, registered in the town of Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur since 2016 – a staggering increase from their initial finding of around 200 fraudulent certificates in the same area.

After that initial finding, Senator Sherwin Gatchalian said it could represent up to “200 Alice Guos, which is very concerning”. Sources within the Chinese community told him that a falsified birth certificate, passport, and driving licence could all be bought for 300,000 Philippine pesos (US$5,500), he said.

Guo’s case and the fake birth certificates found in Davao del Sur “require a much deeper scrutiny by investigators”, security analyst Ona said.

“I also believe that this could be part of an elaborate scheme with criminal and possibly malign influence intent,” Ona said.

He argued that foreign actors were taking advantage of the Philippines’ vulnerabilities and loopholes in its civil and administrative practices, adding that it was “hard to tell” how many cases like Guo’s exist.

“This has been going on for quite some time. The onus is now on our regulatory and security agencies to do the backtracking and expose these cases,” he said.

“Aside from the usual investigation measures, I believe that these events require a deeper examination of the administrative processes.”

The decentralised, manual, and outdated nature of the country’s administrative practices “have been there for decades”, Ona said – allowing a thriving shadow industry of forged identity documents to proliferate.

The Department of Foreign Affairs, Philippine Statistics Authority and other agencies needed to share more data, Ona said.

“I think that our inability to integrate our systems and to accurately monitor these cases are our weaknesses. This is further exacerbated by corruption due to these gaps,” he said.

This fragmented approach, with different agencies managing disparate processes, has left the door wide open for organised criminal syndicates and potentially malign foreign actors to exploit the Philippines’ vulnerabilities.

Ona said that cases such as Guo’s posed an “ominous threat to public safety and even national security”.

Department of National Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said that the Philippines needed to be “on guard against” the influx of students, businessmen, and even tourists amid rumours that some are state agents deployed by China.

“Naming somebody as a sleeper agent or an agent of a foreign power demands a modicum of evidence,” he said in a television interview on Sunday. “What we have here is evidence very clearly of syndicated cybercrimes and other heinous crimes like human trafficking perpetrated by non-Filipinos and allowed to operate in our environment.”

Curbing crimes carried out through Pogos was “heavily on the domestic agenda of a lot of government agencies”, Teodoro said, as these cases “[weakened] our political and economic fabric.”

The defence secretary urged Philippine lawmakers to update the country’s espionage law, which criminalises obtaining or disclosing information and materials concerning national defence, to be applicable not only in times of war and to include matters of cybersecurity and electronic information sharing.

“A lot of new offences like cybercrimes and other ways of sharing information should be included in the law. Mere face-to-face confrontations are not the way things are done. [The addition of] electronic exchanges of information, and other innovative and disruptive ways of doing harm to the Philippines are necessary,” Teodoro said.

Spice of life, China ‘cancer’ man relieved to find chilli from hotpot caused 2-year cough

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3271533/spice-life-china-cancer-man-relieved-find-chilli-hotpot-caused-2-year-cough?utm_source=rss_feed

A man in China who had been coughing for more than two years and feared he had lung cancer was relieved to discover that the cause was a chilli pepper he had choked on during a hotpot meal.

The 54-year-old, surnamed Xu, from Zhejiang province in eastern China, had been taking over-the-counter medication for a persistent cough but saw no improvement.

In late June, concerned about his condition, he sought professional help at the Thoracic Surgery Department at Zhejiang Hospital.

A scan revealed a 1cm mass in his lung and led to fears of pneumonia or a malignant tumour.

A pre-surgery examination confirmed a growth in his right lung, heightening his lung cancer concerns.

Anxious and braced for the worst, Xu was taken into the operating room for surgery on July 3.

Luo Jing, a thoracic surgeon at Zhejiang Hospital, explained that the operation was initially intended to obtain a lung tissue sample to determine the nature of the mass.

However, doctors were surprised to find a foreign object, which turned out to be the tip of a chilli pepper.

Xu recalled an incident two years before when he had choked and coughed severely while eating hotpot, possibly inhaling a chilli.

Zhu Xinhai, Director of the Thoracic Surgery Department at Zhejiang Hospital, said the chilli pepper could have travelled into his lung through his airway.

The foreign object caused an enlarged lymph in his right lung, and was “hidden” under the tissue, making it difficult to detect with normal examination methods.

Ye Jian, Director of the Respiratory Medicine Department at the hospital, said they often find foreign objects inside patients, such as animal bones, earrings and even dentures.

Xu’s case shocked and entertained many people on social media.

“It’s really impressive that he was able to endure the coughing for two years before going to hospital. He’s truly a master,” said one person.

“This man must be thrilled to learn he does not have cancer. This is truly the best outcome a patient could hope for,” another said.

US should fund ways to help Chinese get around ‘Great Firewall’, lawmakers hear

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3271618/us-should-fund-ways-help-chinese-get-around-great-firewall-lawmakers-hear?utm_source=rss_feed

Washington needs to fund censorship circumvention tools for Chinese people while also helping them come to the US to study, a bipartisan panel of lawmakers was told on Tuesday.

Testifying before the House select committee on China, Xiao Qiang, founder of the UC Berkeley-based China Digital Times, a bilingual media organisation, advocated for congressional funding to develop new circumvention technologies and decentralised artificial intelligence tools to help Chinese people overcome Beijing’s “Great Firewall”.

The Great Firewall of China refers to the country’s online censorship system that blocks certain foreign websites and slows down internet traffic as it crosses the border. It’s why mainland Chinese users can’t access Facebook and YouTube or publications including The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and the South China Morning Post.

“The [Chinese Communist Party] is providing the world with a blueprint for establishing a digital totalitarian state and presenting a real threat to world peace,” Xiao said.

While the US government already funds the provision of traditional circumvention tools like virtual private networks (VPNs) in mainland China, witnesses say such tools are not enough, arguing that Beijing has stepped up criminalisation and imposed other disincentives to prevent people from accessing these tools.

“The CCP is not simply building an ever greater firewall. It has undertaken a much more ambitious project, erecting multiple layers of self-reinforcing technical and social controls,” said Nat Kretchun, a senior vice-president at the Open Technology Fund, a non-profit financed by the United States Agency for Global Media.

“The era in which we could reasonably assume that most Chinese citizens could and would naturally seek out uncensored content is unfortunately over,” Kretchun said.

As a result, Kretchun advocated for supporting internet developers in creating innovative circumvention methods tailored to specific use cases, online behaviours and risk profiles.

Echoing his fellow witnesses, Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pushed for an “ambitious moon shot project on internet freedom” that would cut across US agencies, government affiliates and the private sector.

“US internet freedom efforts receive less than 1 per cent of the resources that China likely devotes to information control,” Cooper said, highlighting what he framed as deleterious effects of Chinese government controls to Americans and US-China relations.

But, witnesses said, efforts to break down barriers between China and the outside world don’t have to be solely targeted to spaces within China. Another effective way, they said, is to bring Chinese students into the US.

It’s a point that Democratic Representatives Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois and Seth Moulton of Massachusetts also highlighted on Tuesday.

“Some of the most sophisticated circumvention users in China are those who have spent significant time overseas,” Kretchun said.

Cooper said student exchanges were an “asymmetric advantage” for the United States.

While China hosted over 1,000 US students in the past academic year, according to one estimate, the US played host to about 290,000 Chinese students from 2022 to 2023.

Witnesses also urged the US government to support the development of more “objective” content for dissemination to Chinese users; impose outbound investment restrictions and sanctions on Chinese technology companies conducting censorship and surveillance; and push tech companies to be more forthcoming with their involvement in China, such as by disclosing all payments they receive from Chinese entities.

Calls for the Chinese government to get rid of its information controls have been bipartisan. In an op-ed in Newsweek on Monday, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan and chair of the House select committee on China, said Chinese President Xi Jinping should take down the Great Firewall to “give the Chinese people unfettered access to the truth”.

How China can respond to new headache of Russia-North Korea treaty

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271411/how-china-can-respond-new-headache-russia-north-korea-treaty?utm_source=rss_feed

North Korea and Russia’s signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on June 19 garnered significant global attention. The agreement could enable Russia to supply North Korea with precision weapons and missile technology. This poses severe risks to China’s national security and regional stability, and Beijing must respond decisively yet cautiously to protect its interests without undermining them.

To understand the treaty’s implications for China, it is crucial to examine the scope of cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Despite reports that portray the treaty as a defensive pact guaranteeing automatic intervention in case of a war, the treaty imposes significant restrictions on both nations’ actions under international law, especially on North Korea.

Article 4 of the treaty states that if one party is at war because of external aggression, the other must “provide military and other assistance” in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and the laws of North Korea and Russia. This clause means military aid must comply with both the UN Charter and national laws, giving both countries considerable discretion on intervention.

However, the treaty invoking Article 51 is critical. The article mandates reporting self-defence measures to the UN Security Council, which retains the authority to maintain or restore international peace and security.

This provision imposes two conditions: immediate reporting of self-defence actions to the Security Council and ensuring such actions do not impede the council’s authority to maintain peace. For North Korea, which is already under UN sanctions for nuclear weapons development, this means any self-defence involving nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles could be deemed illegal.

Therefore, Article 4 of the North Korea-Russia treaty significantly limits both countries’ wartime conduct, particularly North Korea’s. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely included this clause to maintain flexibility in dealing with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime.

The primary goal of the treaty seems to be showing solidarity against the West, allowing both sides operational room in the geopolitical landscape without forming an official defence pact. This is evident as previous treaties between North Korea and the Soviet Union or China and North Korea do not have similar conditions in them.

Despite the restrictive nature of the treaty, potential Russian military aid to North Korea poses significant threats to Chinese national security. China has traditionally used economic leverage to moderate North Korean and Russian behaviour, with varying success. The new treaty jeopardises this balance in several ways.

First, Russian assistance in military technology directly threatens regional stability and China’s security interests. The treaty mentions cooperation in various scientific and technological fields, many of which could have military applications. This would increase risks to China’s national defence and border security.

The treaty could also lead to the perception that North Korea prioritises its relationship with Russia over ties with China. Reduced Chinese influence over a neighbouring country with nuclear capabilities and minimal internal restrictions could worsen China’s security. South Korea’s proximity to China adds complexity as strengthened North Korea-Russia ties could destabilise the Korean peninsula.

To safeguard its interests, China must distance itself from the North Korea-Russia alliance and negotiate with Russia to prevent the transfer of nuclear missile and advanced military technology to North Korea. This will protect China’s security and uphold UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has emphasised the importance of adhering to these sanctions, stating that any country with a bilateral relationship with North Korea must comply with them.

China should also clarify Russia and North Korea’s commitment to implementing elements of May’s Sino-Russian joint statement, which includes granting Chinese fishing vessels access to the Sea of Japan via the Tumen River. This access is vital for China’s fishing industry and maritime security. Ensuring it would symbolise a broader commitment to cooperation and respect for international agreements.

Careful diplomacy is required to secure this access. China must emphasise the economic and mutual benefits of honouring the Sino-Russian joint statement, including the provisions on fishing access. Framing the issue within the context of broader bilateral cooperation will strengthen China’s negotiating position.

Maintaining access to the Sea of Japan would serve as a stabilising factor in the region, demonstrating China’s ability to uphold international agreements and work collaboratively with its neighbours. This can help mitigate tensions and foster a more cooperative regional environment.

China’s relationship with Russia is multifaceted, characterised by both cooperation and competition. While both share an interest in counterbalancing Western influence, their strategic objectives do not always align. The Russia-North Korea treaty exemplifies this tension.

Russia’s increasing military cooperation with North Korea complicates China’s efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Russia and a united front on key global issues. China must navigate this delicate situation by leveraging diplomatic channels to dissuade Russia from destabilising actions and using economic incentives to influence Russia’s actions. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on trade with China, providing Beijing with leverage.

Another strategic move China should consider is strengthening relations with South Korea, a democratic ally of the West with its own security concerns regarding North Korea. Establishing a closer relationship with South Korea via economic partnerships and joint initiatives to foster mutual trust and cooperation could provide China with valuable leverage in regional diplomacy.

In conclusion, the Russia-North Korea treaty poses significant challenges to China’s national security and regional stability. Beijing’s strategic response should involve diplomatic negotiations, strengthening ties with South Korea and firm measures to protect its interests and uphold international law. By navigating these complex dynamics, China can safeguard its interests and maintain its influence in East Asia.

US climate envoy to go to China as talks progress on greenhouse gas cuts

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3271621/us-climate-envoy-go-china-talks-progress-greenhouse-gas-cuts?utm_source=rss_feed

The top US climate diplomat said on Tuesday that he would travel to China later this year to continue talks on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Envoys from both nations – the two leading greenhouse gas-emitting countries – have been focusing on potent pollutants that are not carbon dioxide, including industrial nitrous oxide, John Podesta, US President Joe Biden’s senior adviser for international climate policy, said.

“It is not often that we find ourselves with an affordable and relatively straightforward way to eliminate emissions equivalent to tens of billions of cars on the road,” Podesta said. “Cutting industrial nitrous oxide pollution is that opportunity.

“So I think we need to seize it together.”

Nitrous oxide (N2O), commonly known as laughing gas, is a greenhouse gas with 300 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. Its industrial uses are varied, and emissions come from fossil fuel use to fertilisers to semiconductor manufacturing.

It stays in the atmosphere for more than a century and depletes the ozone layer. Scientists consider it the third most important greenhouse gas, after carbon dioxide and methane.

Its emissions from human activities have grown 30 per cent over the past four decades, exceeding some of the worst scenarios scientists had projected, a 2020 study found; the study cited growing emissions in the emerging economies of Brazil, China and India.

The United States and China account for about 80 per cent of global industrial nitrous oxide emissions – two-thirds of which comes from China, Podesta said.

Announcing new actions to slash “super pollutants”, the White House said on Tuesday that American companies had devised ways to cut overall industrial nitrous oxide emissions across the country by early 2025, halving US emissions from 2020 levels.

It cited Ascend Performance Materials, a Texas firm that is the largest US producer of adipic acid, a raw material of nylon which creates N2O as a by-product. The White House said the company had installed “an additional thermal reduction unit that has virtually eliminated N2O emissions” at a facility in Florida.

Podesta said that the administration encouraged more, similar private-sector domestic commitments while keeping up international engagements, and noted that the US Environmental Protection Agency determined that about 80 per cent of industrial N2O abatement is available for less than US$20 a tonne.

The cost-effectiveness “is why cutting nitrous oxide pollution and other super pollutants is a core component of US engagement with China on climate”, he said, adding that carbon markets might hold promise for cutting N2O emissions in both countries.

Climate change has played a key role in the US-China relationship, providing an area for progress while other diplomatic fronts have faced increased tensions. In May, Podesta met with Liu Zhenmin, Beijing’s special envoy for climate change, in Washington to discuss actions on methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

The two countries also agreed to host a second summit on methane and non-CO2 greenhouse gases at the UN Climate Change Conference in Azerbaijan in November.

Rick Duke, the State Department’s deputy special envoy for climate, said that both countries “call on the world to join” the summit they are preparing.

“It is still early days,” he said, but the goal was to “solve practical problems and cut emissions quickly” in both countries.

In November, China and the US pledged to renew climate cooperation. They included methane in their respective 2035 emission-reduction plans – the first time China has made such a pledge – and agreed to work together to control non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.

“When China stepped up to make that commitment that they will address non-CO2 in their 2035 target,” Duke said, “that was akin to putting a Russia-sized economy into the Paris Agreement in one go – [an] immensely consequential step.”

Whether Harris or Trump, the prospect of a direct China-US conflict is unlikely: expert

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3271606/whether-harris-or-trump-prospect-direct-china-us-conflict-unlikely-expert?utm_source=rss_feed

The US and China are unlikely to have a direct conflict regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the American presidential election, according to a top political scientist on bilateral relations.

But both will take a hard line on Beijing in the race, he said.

Li Cheng, founding director of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said that despite the broad bitterness in America against China, a war with China would not unite the United States, and blaming Beijing too much could backfire in the campaign.

Li, a former head of the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Centre, also said many US political figures were not as tough on China as they professed to be in public.

“My view is that the Chinese should not take too seriously what they say in the campaign. What they say and what they do will be different,” Li said in an interview with the Post on Monday.

The race for the White House has taken some dramatic turns in the past fortnight.

After President Joe Biden withdrew on the weekend, Vice-President Harris tweeted on Tuesday that she has secured enough delegates to earn the Democratic Party’s nomination.

Donald Trump formally accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination last week, and within 48 hours of an assassination attempt on him, picked 39-year-old J.D. Vance, a senator from Ohio, as his running mate.

But Li said the candidates had one thing in common.

“No matter Trump, Harris or someone else in the future … they will all be tough on China in the current US political environment,” he said.

Washington’s strategic competition with Beijing is generally expected to remain unchanged after the election in November, given the apparent bipartisan consensus in the US on China’s potential as a threat.

Still, Li said, there were “a lot of differences” within the parties and between the Republicans and Democrats on the best strategy for dealing with China.

He said it was important to not conflate efforts to identify an enemy with a determination to fight an enemy.

American voters were unlikely to welcome the idea of going to war with China nor would they buy attempts to attribute all of the US’ problems to the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

“Sometimes Donald Trump praising China actually resonates very well. They just think we are doing so poorly and blaming China for everything just shows your incompetence,” he said.

“Americans are not so dumb, they know that the narrative sometimes is too biased.

“Will a war with China unite the United States? No. Treating China as an enemy will unite the United States? Maybe, but the chance of failure is much higher.”

China-related issues seem to be less of a priority in this election campaign than in previous years.

Still, in his speech accepting the Republican vice-presidential nomination last week, Vance took aim at China being accepted to the World Trade Organisation, saying it was time to “stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of American citizens”.

A few days earlier, he said the focus of American foreign policy would be China and characterised the country as “the biggest threat” to the US.

“I was surprised that he made so many remarks on some policies, including China policy, which obviously is different from Trump,” Li said, referring to the former US president’s willingness to let Chinese carmakers build vehicles in the US.

“J.D. Vance should be careful. There’s only [a] one-man show for the Republican Party. It cannot be two men. This is Donald Trump’s character,” he said. “J.D. Vance should learn from [Mike] Pence to be quiet.”

Still, Li warned against concluding from Vance’s comment that he and his team hated China.

“These people are very sophisticated, intellectual, they are not anti-China,” he said. “Do not take [things at] face value.”