Mistral点评

• 4 Chinese economists and academics advising Beijing on capital, employment and finance
• Chinese legal experts warn detention measure is being abused and call for change
• China is not posing an existential threat to global trade – America is
• How Boeing’s electronic war fighter runs into China’s ‘kill web’ in the South China Sea
• A Chinese civil servant went on safari in Kenya. Now lions are his life
• Jailed China father tears up over academic success of son, captivating social media
• Remains of missing Chinese tourist Yan Ruimin found in Thailand, police say
• South China Sea: what do Filipinos think about the Manila-Beijing row?
• A pro-business third plenum is China’s best retort to US, EU gauntlet
• Trump rally shooting: Chinese online retailers quick off the mark with souvenir T-shirts
• Chinese start-ups with global ambitions poised for success, head of VC fund says
• Barbecued ‘high heels’, ‘grenades’: bizarre China grilled food lures daring epicureans
• China set for third plenum that could prove a ‘defining moment’ of Xi Jinping era
• How the Trump Pennsylvania shooting attempt looked from China
• A BeiDou-like satnav system for the moon? Chinese scientists plot a possible route
• To tell China’s story well, its writers must be free enough to do so
• China’s population crisis demands ‘dynamic monitoring’ of households, more support: adviser
• Chinese tech companies face increased EU compliance costs amid bloc’s new AI rules
• A study in ethics: the Chinese science detectives hard on the trail of academic misconduct

4 Chinese economists and academics advising Beijing on capital, employment and finance

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3270214/4-chinese-economists-and-academics-advising-beijing-capital-employment-and-finance?utm_source=rss_feed

Since the third plenum of China’s 19th Central Committee’s in 2018, economists and academics have offered advice on how Beijing should plan its economic strategies.

And with the tone-setting third plenum of the new Central Committee set to take place next week in Beijing to chart China’s long-term growth path, we look at four of the economists and academics who have in recent years offered insight into capital, employment, social security, financial services, the stability of the financial system and integration of digital technology.

Liu Yuanchun, who is president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, talked about strategies for China to guide its capital toward healthy and compliant development during a lecture attended by top leaders, including President Xi Jinping, in April 2022.

Liu and other officials also discussed that Beijing should allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation, and to provide a favourable market and legal environment for the private sector, according to publications on the official website for members of the Communist Party.

Liu later advocated for Beijing to accelerate the enhancement of its social security system, invest more in equal education and increase income for its middle-class population to avoid the middle-income trap.

In the blog post in May by the Beijing-based Finance 40 Forum think tank, Liu also called on Beijing to achieve breakthroughs in its hukou national household registration system to give equal services to rural workers and allow their children access to education in the city where their parents work, while also promoting the flow of better educational resources to less developed areas.

Liu also suggested that China needed to increase the share of social security spending in its overall fiscal budget, while also increasing unemployment benefits.

Mo Rong, the head of the Chinese Academy of Labour and Social Security governmental think tank to the Politburo, talked about employment issues in a lecture during a study session for the primary decision-making body in May.

He mainly discussed how China should develop so-called new quality productive forces, speed up industrial upgrading and nurture future industries to create jobs.

During this year’s two sessions – China’s annual parliamentary meetings in March – Mo urged Beijing to establish comprehensive standards for the ongoing trend of flexible employment and to improve social security policies.

He also advocated for platform companies and workers to share the responsibility for contributing to social insurance.

Mo urged Beijing to implement lifelong vocational skills training to address the skills gap in the labour market and to carry out targeted information-based skills training and forecasting of future jobs and occupational changes to cultivate an urgently needed workforce.

“We need to enhance our ability to forecast employment trends and develop specialised plans that integrate unemployment insurance with re-employment policies to prevent and mitigate the risk of large-scale unemployment in the country,” he said.

Xie Duo, who is the chairman of Silk Road Fund, a Chinese government guidance fund aimed at fostering increased investment in members of the Belt and Road Initiative, gave a lecture during a Politburo study session in February 2019 where he provided suggestions on how to enhance the capacity of financial services to support the real economy while mitigating financial risks.

The agenda included discussion on the need for financial institutions to deliver more efficient services to the real economy, develop financial products aligned with market demand and increase the number and proportion of small and medium-sized financial institutions within the financial system.

During a speech in October 2020, Xie also urged Beijing to promote offshore investment in the yuan, increase its use in cross-border trade and investment to reduce exchange costs and exchange rate risk, lessen dependence on major international reserve currencies and improve financial system stability.

Computer science academic Lu Jian, who was president of Nanjing University from 2018-2023, joined a Politburo study session in October 2021 and provided suggestions on how China should promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy.

Lu suggested that Beijing should cultivate talent tailored to the digital economy’s demand, emphasising not only the solid foundation of basic disciplines for researchers, but also the development of applied and innovative skills during his lecture at a group study in Jiangsu province in March.

At this year’s two sessions, Lu also urged Beijing to enhance artificial intelligence-related training within the talent schemes, moderately expand the National Centre for Training High-level Talents in Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, and Biology and increase the cultivation of expertise in astronomy and earth sciences alongside the traditional four majors.

“These two scientific subjects provide fundamental and important support for searching for new productivity forces, building a strong aerospace industry for China, and improving people’s living standards,” he said.

Chinese legal experts warn detention measure is being abused and call for change

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3270394/chinese-legal-experts-warn-detention-measure-being-abused-and-call-change?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese legal experts are calling for changes to laws governing a form of detention they say has been abused by authorities, who often use torture to extract information from suspects.

The measure, known as residential surveillance at a designated location (RSDL), was originally intended as a form of mild restriction of personal freedoms for people suspected of less serious violations.

Decades later, it has become the harshest form of detention used in state security cases, including terrorism.

Now legal professionals say the criminal procedure law, which is expected to undergo revisions in the coming years, should be changed to abolish or modify how RSDL is used to avoid abuse, human rights violations and false convictions.

In April, the story of Beijing tech company manager Xing Yanjun went viral. He had died after being taken by the police and subjected to RSDL – under which suspects are confined in a designated location and put under constant surveillance.

Xing’s older brother, author of the viral post on Weibo, wrote that police told the family his brother had hung himself, but they refused to believe it and sought the truth.

Follow-up media reports said police in Hulunbuir in Inner Mongolia autonomous region alleged that Xing’s firm operated a casino, and 14 employees of the firm, including Xing, were detained last November.

However, local prosecutors did not approve the arrest.

But instead of releasing the suspects, the police put 12 of them under RSDL in December, the family said, and they found out about Xing’s death four months later.

This case illustrates the controversy surrounding the measure.

Residential surveillance as a type of detention has been in place since the creation of China’s criminal procedure law in 1979. Under this, a suspect may remain at home, and police officers are sent to monitor them.

The RSDL option was introduced in 1996, when a revision to the criminal procedure law specified that suspects without a residence could be assigned a detention location – often a hotel room or similar spot.

The law was again revised in 2012 to expand the use of RSDL beyond minor violations to include those suspected of “endangering national security, terrorist activities and particularly major bribery crimes”. The rationale was that allowing the suspect to stay at their own residence might hinder the investigation.

The criminal procedure law is expected to undergo another round of modifications. It appeared on the legislative plan of the 14th National People’s Congress Standing Committee in September, and will be submitted for review during the top legislature’s five-year term ending in 2028.

In an online discussion held last month by the Hongfan Institute of Legal and Economic Studies, a private liberal think tank based in Beijing, legal experts argued that RSDL had been abused by authorities.

Even though use of the measure has remained low over the years, it has been controversial since the beginning.

When the measure was designed, it was meant to be weaker than detention at a police station, allowing the suspect more rights and freedoms, Chen Yongsheng, a law professor at Peking University, told the Hongfan forum.

But in reality it was the opposite, and some suspects even asked to be put in police detention rather than be subject to RSDL, he said.

During surveillance, suspects were usually under 24-hour watch – even as they slept or went to the bathroom – and were interrogated nonstop, Chen said.

Unlike police detention or arrest, there was no requirement for RSDL to be recorded or videotaped, and the location was often decided by the police with no supervision, increasing the possibility of torture, said Beijing-based lawyer Zhou Ze.

Chen cited cases of torture disclosed in media reports and legal records in recent years, including a man who was blackmailed by an auxiliary police officer during surveillance, and two people who were beaten and starved.

“Reported cases are only a fraction of what happens in reality, so we have reason to believe that the real situation is more severe,” Chen said.

He said RSDL was unconstitutional, could lead to false convictions, and was a “serious violation of human rights”.

According to the legal experts, residential surveillance is often used interchangeably with another form of detention, known as , used in corruption-related crimes to give graft-fighters even more flexibility in interrogation.

But liuzhi is only used in corruption cases, in which suspects legally have no right to a lawyer and are investigated by supervisory and anti-corruption authorities.

Facilities used for liuzhi usually have strict rules that require registration or videotaping.

However, if supervisory authorities cannot obtain a confession within the three-month liuzhi period, they often transfer suspects to the police for RSDL, according to legal analysts. However, instead of a police officer monitoring suspects, the anti-corruption officers often continue interrogations, they said.

Many have suggested abolishing RSDL. Si Weijiang, a human rights lawyer, noted that the 2012 revision of the criminal procedure law expanded the use of RSDL for terrorism, and suggested the measure should only be used for such cases.

“When modifying the law, residential surveillance at a designated location should be scrapped for common cases, and only kept in cases that concern national security crimes,” he said.

Chen, the law professor, said it would be more practical to make changes to the existing measure rather than abolishing it. He suggested the use of surveillance at a suspect’s residence or arresting the person rather than having authorities assign the location.

If a location must be assigned, then conditions should be improved, he said.

Chen suggested having officers monitor from outside the location, rather than being inside and face-to-face with suspects. He also recommended ensuring food and rest for suspects, videotaping the interrogations, and allowing suspects to live with their families.

China is not posing an existential threat to global trade – America is

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3270347/china-not-posing-existential-threat-global-trade-america?utm_source=rss_feed

In March 2018, US president Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, declaring: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Six years on, the US economy leans precariously towards Smoot-Hawley protection, not under Trump but under President Joe Biden. And as Trump looms Godzilla-like in search of a second presidential term, those crass thoughts on trade are as wrong as ever – but few in the United States seem to care.

It seems that while trade wars and protectionism are bad, they are also politically irresistible, in the US at least. Promises of tax cuts at home, and success in justifying protectionism as an essential part of the battle to contain a demonised China, have diverted voters’ gaze.

Mercifully, and in part because many other countries recognise the powerful contribution that trade has made to growth and prosperity over the past seven decades, mounting US protectionism has so far produced more bark than bite.

And the three-year Covid-19 convulsion, coupled with major wars in Ukraine and Gaza, have been by far the most significant disrupters of international trade, deflecting attention from America’s more hare-brained trade priorities.

Still, there has been a worrying impact. Most clearly, as shown in the work of Global Trade Alert, an independent trade policy monitoring service, the past five years have seen a powerful surge in harmful protectionist measures.

From an average of fewer than 1,000 trade-related measures a year in the decade up to 2019, this surged to a peak of over 2,500 last year – with over two-thirds of these harmfully disrupting trade, and a large proportion emanating from Washington. These have lifted average tariffs, raised trade transaction costs along supply chains, added trade-distorting subsidies and sought import substitution.

As the US has rolled out its national security-justified protectionism against China, so there have been mounting predictions of import-substituting industry policies, a collapse of trade and globalisation, onshoring, “friendshoring” and a restructuring of long-entrenched supply chains around fragmented trade blocs.

Many have pointed to the 8-percentage-point fall in China’s share of US imports since 2017 as evidence of these trends. Yet China’s total exports continue to rise (up 9 per cent in the first quarter), with signs that much of what it used to export to the US is being redirected through countries such as Vietnam and Mexico.

At the World Trade Organization, director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remains calm: “Even in a context of rising protectionist pressures and signs of economic fragmentation, there are governments around the world still taking meaningful steps to liberalise and facilitate trade.”

Since the WTO’s creation about 30 years ago, global trade has risen fivefold to over US$30.4 trillion last year, growing faster than the global gross domestic product. The trade-to-GDP ratio has risen from 20 per cent in 1995 to 31 per cent in 2022, while the WTO’s simple average tariff fell from 13.1 per cent to 8.8 per cent; the percentage of the world population living in extreme poverty also dropped, from 40.1 per cent to 10.6 per cent.

In its most recent global trade alert, UN Trade and Development said trends had turned positive with the goods trade up by around 1 per cent for the first quarter, and the services trade up by 1.5 per cent.

It expects the goods trade in the first half to rise by US$250 billion, and the services trade by about US$100 billion, supported by demand for “energy transition” products like electric vehicles. Trade for the year is expected to rise by 3 per cent to US$32 trillion – hardly the kind of numbers expected if globalisation was starting to crumble.

Yet angst remains, and rightly so, as figures like Trump loom and the US continues to stoke geopolitical fires with China. The International Monetary Fund has warned of increasing signs of fragmentation, noting that trade and investment flows are being directed along geopolitical lines.

One of Trump’s more exotic plans has governments worldwide wringing their hands: he aims to eliminate income tax and replace it with a universal baseline import tariff of 10 per cent, rising to 60 per cent or more for China. One almost expects to hear Trump declare, in an echo of 2018: “High tariffs are good, and an easy swap for taxes.”

Washington’s adults in the room have warned that such a plan would be catastrophic. The Peterson Institute for International Economics led the charge in a paper asking: “Can Trump replace income taxes with tariffs?” Its blunt answer: “No, and trying would be regressive and harm economic growth”.

The arithmetic is simple: income tax revenues amount to around US$2 trillion a year, while imports last year amounted to US$3.1 trillion. Applying Trump’s tariffs could raise around US$225 billion a year – a tiny contribution to the hole left by cutting income tax.

Such a plan “would cost jobs, ignite inflation, increase federal deficits and cause a recession”, said the Peterson Institute. It would antagonise allies and trade partners and provoke retaliatory trade wars. It would damage global economic welfare, undermine national security and destabilise the global financial system.

Many in Washington talk of China as a uniquely existential treat to the global economy. But to watch the US election campaign unfold is to wonder if the real challenges sit elsewhere. So far, the threats to the global trading system have been more bark than bite. But will it still be so after November?

How Boeing’s electronic war fighter runs into China’s ‘kill web’ in the South China Sea

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3270175/how-boeings-electronic-war-fighter-runs-chinas-kill-web-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed

In December 2023, William Coulter, the commander of US Electronic Attack Squadron 136 (VAQ-136) deployed in the South China Sea on the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, was given the axe by the US Navy “due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command”.

A month later, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers and sailors on board a Type 055 destroyer were honoured as a “role model of the times” for their actions against a US aircraft carrier fleet.

Chinese media showed footage of two US jets buzzing the Nanchang destroyer, one of them widely believed to be an EA-18G Growler – the same electronic warfare aircraft that was used by Coulter’s squadron.

Now, for the first time, scientists with the PLA Navy have revealed the tactics and technology used by Chinese warships against the Growler aircraft, giving a glimpse into the invisible battle that is unfolding in the South China Sea between two of the world’s biggest military powers.

In a peer-reviewed paper published last month in the Chinese academic journal Radar & ECM, the scientists said that artificial intelligence (AI) gave the PLA’s radar a critical edge over the Growler.

Manufactured by Boeing, the EA-18G is an electronic warfare aircraft, mostly used for electronic jamming.

Based on the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter platform, it can be loaded with various electronic warfare systems to suppress enemy reconnaissance and communication signals in all frequency bands and in all directions with high power. It can also launch anti-radiation missiles for precise strikes against shipborne radars, making it a core combat force in the US AirSea Battle strategy.

Production of the Growler began 20 years ago and, since 2021, the US military has spent huge sums to upgrade its equipment to adapt to future wars.

But that does not mean it is unbeatable, as shown by the researchers.

“Cognitive intelligent radar has capabilities such as proactive environmental sensing, arbitrary transmit and receive design, intelligent processing, and resource scheduling. It can effectively counter the complex and variable electromagnetic jamming of the EA-18G,” wrote the project team led by Professor Liu Shangfu, a radar expert with the Naval Non-Commissioned Officer School in Bengbu, in southeast China’s Anhui province.

The Chinese navy’s modern warships are equipped with multiple radars with different working principles and many different types of sensors. Scientists and engineers have solved the bottleneck issue in the transmission and processing of massive amounts of heterogeneous data, enabling these devices to work together, significantly reducing the effectiveness of the Growler’s jamming against individual radars.

“System detection is not simply a stacking of multiple detection sensors, nor a loosely connected network, but rather a comprehensive utilisation of the performance characteristics of different sensors based on actual situations, and a rational allocation and scheduling of detection resources from a tactical perspective to enhance the platform’s information control capabilities,” Liu’s team wrote.

Chinese scientists have also made breakthroughs in maintaining high-speed and reliable communication across the entire fleet in complex electromagnetic environments. When an EA-18G launches an attack on a Chinese naval ship, it will immediately be countered by nearby Chinese naval ships.

As the ships share information, a giant “kill web” is then created, with the capability to “flexibly, actively, quickly and intelligently counter the EA-18G, achieving a transformation from ‘single-resource confrontation’ to ‘systematic detection resource confrontation’”, Liu and his colleagues wrote.

With technology on its side, the Chinese navy has reversed its previous cautious style and adopted a more proactive tactic of “attacking as defence, taking multiple measures simultaneously, optimising combinations and joining forces with other elements to counter electronic warfare aircraft”, the scientists added.

China’s official report on the Nanchang confirmed this change of tactic. The ship reportedly broke the traditional formation rank, advancing 100 nautical miles (185 km) ahead and, with the support of rear forces, blocked the US aircraft carrier task force from advancing towards a Chinese exercise zone.

In response, the US military dispatched carrier-based aircraft. Videos released by China showed that the EA-18G might have adopted a combat mode known as jamming-while-accompanying, creating a formation with other warplanes and conducting noise jamming or releasing strong signals of dense, false targets to blind the Nanchang.

However, the radar system on Nanchang continued to operate normally and locked onto the main targets of the US fleet.

A commander on the Nanchang ship told state media that shortly after they opened the protective covers of the vertical launching system, the US planes and ships backed off.

The intense contest between Chinese warships and the Growlers started as early as 2018, during the Donald Trump administration, according to Liu’s paper.

The Americans initially had an upper hand, but the game soon changed.

According to the US Congress’ National Defence Strategy Commission in 2022, the US is “losing its advantages in electronic warfare, hindering the nation’s ability to conduct military operations against capable adversaries”.

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A Chinese civil servant went on safari in Kenya. Now lions are his life

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270391/chinese-civil-servant-went-safari-kenya-now-lions-are-his-life?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese wildlife conservationist Zhuo Qiang has lived among lions. He has also taken care of them, and other wild animals, at Kenya’s famed Maasai Mara National Reserve for the past 14 years.

Known locally as Simba – meaning “lion” in Swahili – Zhuo has worked with the local Maasai community to protect wildlife and reduce conflict between humans and animals during his time at the reserve in Narok, a county in southwest Kenya.

And he wants other Chinese to get involved.

“I really hope that there will be more Chinese conservationists coming and settling here. But so far, nobody,” Zhuo said, though he added that there were “more Chinese communities supporting our work”.

Zhuo, 50, could be about to see more interest, after hosting the first China-Kenya Wildlife Conservation Cooperation Forum last month. Hundreds of Chinese citizens and organisations attended the event aimed at showcasing what was being done and exploring ways to provide support.

“We have set up a platform to encourage and inspire Chinese communities living in Kenya as well as Chinese tourists who visit Kenya to join our conservation efforts,” Zhuo told the Nairobi event.

Several Chinese companies – from logistics to real estate – made donations at the forum to support those efforts.

Gao Wei, chairman of the Kenya Overseas Chinese Association, said the group would urge Chinese businesses and citizens in Kenya to support conservation activities.

“We are looking at how we, the Chinese, can do something for society [in Kenya] in the area of conservation,” Gao told the forum.

“Kenya is known for its wildlife, and these treasures attract a lot of interest from across the world. We believe if we can promote better conservation of wildlife in Kenya this will be good for the country.”

Zhuo’s conservation journey in Africa started in 2004, when he first visited the scenic savannah plains of Maasai Mara and saw a pride of lions. It was a life-changing trip.

“When I was eight years old, I watched the TV cartoon the King of the Jungle. After that, I began to dream about becoming a lion – to go to Africa to become a lion, stay with the lions,” Zhuo said.

After seeing the lions in Kenya, Zhuo quit his job of 15 years with the Chongqing government. “I moved to Africa with my backpack,” he said.

At the reserve, he lived with lions for several years in search of the best way for humans and lions to live in harmony.

He realised lions were endangered, their number having dwindled to about 20,000 globally. Kenya had less than 3,000.

“My mission is to inspire Kenyans to save lions and to encourage more Chinese to join me in these conservation efforts,” Zhuo said.

In 2011, he set up the Mara Conservation Fund to source financing to protect lions and other wild animals in Maasai Mara.

A year later, he built a camp at the reserve’s Ol Kinyei Conservancy, which spans about 73 sq km (28 square miles).

It was there that Zhuo pioneered a community-led model for wildlife conservation. The idea is for the Maasai people to drive conservation efforts through anti-poaching initiatives, by reducing conflict between humans and wildlife, and with community welfare projects.

Some 1,200 families are involved in what Zhuo describes as “the first community-based conservancy in Maasai Mara”.

Zhuo said he convinced them to contribute land to establish protected areas for the environment and wildlife. They receive part of the visitor entry fees to the conservancy and sell products they make to tourists.

“We have seen the local community increase their yearly income, family income, from US$500 to US$3,700 per family,” he said.

“Many people came to learn our model and went back to set up more conservancies around Maasai Mara.”

Zhuo has also invited some big names from China to help raise money for conservation activities, including former basketball star Yao Ming, former professional boxer Zou Shiming, Mandopop singer and actor Han Geng and actor and singer Gao Hanyu. Others include actor and pop singer Lu Yi and actor and former Olympic diving champion Tian Liang.

The drive has paid off, with donations of vehicles, motorcycles and other equipment as well as financial support that Zhuo said had helped to build 59 lion-proof enclosures to reduce conflict between the animals and local communities.

“It’s my strong belief that without the active participation of local communities, we cannot achieve any success,” Zhuo said.

Zhuo said the illegal wildlife trade continued to be the main factor affecting conservation efforts but progress had been made, especially after China banned trade in ivory and other wildlife products.

China was for years widely believed to be the world’s largest consumer of elephant ivory but in 2017 imposed a total ban on all ivory trade and processing activities.

He said educating tourists was also important, adding that more Chinese were travelling to Kenya and going on safari in its national parks.

China is the sixth biggest source of tourists in Kenya, and the Kenyan tourism board has been running marketing campaigns to attract more as it seeks to diversify beyond the traditional US and UK markets.

Some 52,000 Chinese travelled to Kenya last year – more than double the number in 2022.

“As the first Chinese wildlife conservationist working in Africa, I believe that we have done very pragmatic work to inspire and encourage Chinese people to realise the critical importance of wildlife conservation,” Zhuo said.

Jailed China father tears up over academic success of son, captivating social media

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3270282/jailed-china-father-tears-over-academic-success-son-captivating-social-media?utm_source=rss_feed

The story of a jailed man in China who cried with joy after finding out that his son had achieved a score of 697 out of 750 in the national university entrance exam has trended on mainland social media.

The man, who is imprisoned in Chaohu, Anhui province, southeastern China, realised the boy had performed well by the amount of money he received from relatives.

The family transferred 69.7 yuan (US$10) to the man at the end of June to signify that his son had scored 697 in the exam.

The excited father shared the good news with prison wardens and they gave him a rare extra telephone call allowance to speak to his son, the mainland news outlet The Paper reported.

“Daddy, I achieved a score of 697. I am going to study at Peking University,” the boy proudly told his father, who cried with joy.

“When I receive the official admission letter, I will come to visit you,” the boy said.

China’s tough gaokao exam requires students to complete test papers in five subjects, such as Chinese, mathematics and English, with each subject having a maximum score of 150.

It is not clear what crime the father had committed but he was jailed for two years. His wife divorced him while he was incarcerated.

In a handwritten letter, the father said he was sorry he could not be there with his son while he was preparing for the crucial exam.

“I am relieved about your good scores. Motivated by your excellent study performance, I will behave well in prison,” he wrote.

“I want to be back home and reunited with you as soon as possible.”

The boy told him: “I, along with my younger brother and younger sister, do not blame you. You just stay well inside the prison. We are waiting at home for your return.”

Their conversation soon gained traction online.

“I am moved to tears. What a sensible boy. He does not blame his father. Instead, he studies hard and is filial to him,” one online observer said on Douyin.

“He is extraordinary. He is an example of constantly striving to become strong,” said another person about the boy.

Others took a different view.

“It’s a pity that such a father will affect his son’s future job prospects. The boy will not be entitled to ‘iron bowl’ jobs, like civil servants and employees at state-owned enterprises,” someone else said.

In China, it is highly possible that job candidates whose parents or spouses have a criminal record will not pass the “political background check” for most positions at government departments and state-owned enterprises.

Remains of missing Chinese tourist Yan Ruimin found in Thailand, police say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3270401/remains-missing-chinese-tourist-yan-ruimin-found-thailand-police-say?utm_source=rss_feed

Thai police said on Saturday they had found the remains of a Chinese woman believed to have been missing for more than 10 days, and that a Chinese male suspect had left the country, according to Thai media reports.

Police are still awaiting the results of a final DNA test, but Thai media quoted police sources as saying the remains were most likely those of Yan Ruimin, a Chinese tourist who is believed to have been kidnapped.

Yan, 38, has been missing for almost two weeks.

Earlier this month, her family received a phone call from an unknown person demanding a ransom of 1 million yuan (US$137,800).

A friend of Yan’s reported to Thai police on Friday that he suspected Yan was in danger because he had not heard from her since June 30, when she told him she planned to go to Phuket two days later.

Thai police have identified Ma Qingyan, a 32-year-old Chinese man, as a suspect in the case, according to Thai media reports.

Thai police started an extensive search on Friday in an area where Yan was thought to have last visited, and on Saturday found a decomposed body buried in a grassy field.

Bangkok-based English-language news site The Nation quoted local police as saying that Yan had travelled to Thailand alone from Malaysia on June 26, while Ma arrived from Singapore four days later and rented a car.

The report said surveillance footage from July 1 showed Yan being picked up by Ma that day and the two holding hands. Thai police assumed the two knew each other.

But that evening, Ma drove alone and stopped at various places, eventually burning a suitcase near a pond, according to The Nation.

Police speculated that the suitcase might belong to the missing woman, The Nation reported.

The report also said that Yan was buried about 1km (0.62 miles) from where the suitcase was burned, and that Ma had stayed there for nearly 40 minutes.

Another report in The Bangkok Post on Saturday said that Yan’s mobile phone signal was last detected near a park some 70km from central Bangkok early on July 3.

The report quoted a Thai police source as saying that Ma left Bangkok for Hong Kong later that day.

But from July 4 to 6, Yan’s WeChat Pay account made several purchases in Macau, although there was no record of her leaving Thailand.

It is unclear when Yan’s family received the ransom call, but Thai media reported that they had immediately gone to Thailand.

The case has prompted public concern in China, with internet users questioning whether it is safe to travel to Southeast Asia.

Several kidnappings in Thailand and the Philippines this year had already raised alarm.

Late last month, a Chinese national and a Chinese-American reportedly travelling together on a business trip in the Philippines were kidnapped and killed.

China urged the Philippines to find and “severely punish” the killers of the kidnapped Chinese citizen.

Last month, four Philippine police officers were arrested for kidnapping three Chinese and one Malaysian tourist for ransom.

In April, a Chinese student studying in Australia was lured to Thailand by a kidnap gang and rescued by Thai police after a ransom of 8 million yuan was demanded.

South China Sea: what do Filipinos think about the Manila-Beijing row?

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3270369/south-china-sea-what-do-filipinos-think-about-manila-beijing-row?utm_source=rss_feed

Escalating conflict between the Philippines and China amid Manila’s increasingly hardened stance in defending its maritime territorial claims have sparked concerns among Filipinos, but some have mixed views on their leaders’ responses.

A June 17 clash between the Philippine navy and Chinese coastguard, in which one Filipino crewman lost his thumb, marked a pivotal point in already strained ties, according to observers, who also say Beijing’s actions in the disputed waters have grown more aggressive as it employs the breadth of “grey-zone tactics” that fall just short of crossing the threshold for armed conflict.

Filipinos who spoke to This Week in Asia seemed to agree with this assessment. China’s continuous build-up of its military capabilities and its increasingly assertive stance in the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s term for the parts of the South China Sea it claims – point to a worsening scenario, according to Ariane Tancioco, an independent sales and marketing consultant.

“China’s continuous military build-up and aggressive manoeuvres in the West Philippine Sea increase tensions and make diplomatic resolutions more difficult. The Philippines needs to stand firm and seek international support to counter these actions,” he said.

Tancioco said the clash between the Chinese coastguard and Philippine sailors was infuriating, while also expressing hopelessness about the Philippine military’s capabilities.

The skirmish could set a precedent and eventually lead to the death of a Filipino that would be considered an act of war, said Anton Hipolito, a software engineer.

“This will then invoke the mutual defence treaty where the United States would have to step in this conflict and in turn would lead to an actual armed conflict,” he said.

Edgie Ruiz, an executive vice-president of a company that courts investments from Chinese state-owned companies for Philippine infrastructure projects, blamed local media for blowing scenarios such as the June 17 clash out of proportion.

“[Local media] tends to sensationalise things. I met a Taiwanese friend recently and asked him about the tensions there … he said things were normal. When it comes to Filipino media, they always want to appeal to readers’ emotions,” he said.

Yet some Filipinos say the situation remains unchanged despite the increased domestic news coverage.

“I think it’s mostly keeping with the status quo, with more coverage,” said Keisha Constantino, who teaches at a state university and said she didn’t think the issue was really worsening.

“We are still doing business with China,” Ruiz said, adding that he believed the maritime dispute in the South China Sea “was a lost cause”.

An April survey by polling firm WRNumero found that seven in 10 Filipinos, or 66 per cent, believed that tensions in the West Philippine Sea were worsening. Twelve per cent said matters were not getting worse, while 21 per cent were unsure.

Hipolito expressed concern about the increasing incidents involving civilian and military personnel at sea, and the growing presence of Chinese militia vessels in disputed waters, as signs that tensions were worsening.

But Jhong dela Cruz, a nurse in the US who is involved with progressive groups such as Bayan USA and Migrante USA, argued that everything could still be resolved with proper diplomacy.

Tancioco said he found the rising tensions concerning, believing that they threatened regional stability and the livelihoods of Filipino fishermen.

“China’s actions undermine international maritime law, and their unchecked aggression could lead to broader conflicts that might involve other nations,” he said.

Filipinos’ opinions differed on how Philippine leaders and authorities were handling the maritime dispute.

Hipolito supported the Philippine Coast Guard’s continuous transparency with its reports of Chinese activity in the West Philippine Sea, and routine embedding of journalists on resupply missions to “show the world who the bad guys are”.

“We are also practising great restraint not to make the first act of war and being always on the defensive side. I think China is just waiting for us to make the mistake of attacking aggressively first so they can use this as an excuse to escalate further conflict,” he said.

Tancioco urged Philippine leaders to take “stronger, more decisive actions”, such as prioritising strengthening alliances and defence capabilities.

Dela Cruz criticised the country’s leaders for being “very inconsistent and two-faced”.

“[President Ferdinand] Marcos Jnr himself claimed to seek a peaceful resolution and to avoid use of force with China, but then merely weeks later Senator Imee Marcos sought to provoke panic by claiming that 25 sites are under imminent attack, betraying the insincerity of their efforts to seek a diplomatic solution,” he said.

Many expressed concern about the fisherfolk who are at the receiving end of intimidation tactics by Chinese vessels at sea.

“I worry for the fisherfolk who are deprived of their right to livelihood, as well as our national interest and assertion over our territory and the resources the West Philippine Sea islands maintain,” dela Cruz said.

The ramming of Filipino fishing boats and harassment of Filipino fishermen were distressing and “highlight China’s disregard for human life and sovereignty”, Tancioco said.

Opinions on whether a direct war with China was imminent were also mixed.

“Tensions are surely rising in the West Philippine Sea, but I do not believe war is imminent,” dela Cruz said, noting that the US, the Philippines’ treaty ally, “would not be in favour of all-out war” given its own proxy wars in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts.

Dela Cruz added that the Philippines needed to introduce “sweeping political and constitutional changes” for the country to independently produce its own war equipment and resist offers of foreign aid.

Hipolito said he believed the Philippines and China were on the verge of a direct conflict soon, but “I would like to be proven wrong about this”.

Constantino noted that “China isn’t a country that is an aggressor. They use scare tactics for sure, but it’s not likely for them to actually strike”.

Ruiz agreed it was unlikely for China to engage the Philippines in a war “since they are afraid of the US military might”.

While a direct war with China was not inevitable, Tancioco said tensions could escalate into more serious conflicts if not managed properly.

“Diplomatic efforts and strong international alliances are key to preventing such a scenario,” he said.

A pro-business third plenum is China’s best retort to US, EU gauntlet

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3270297/pro-business-third-plenum-chinas-best-retort-us-eu-gauntlet?utm_source=rss_feed

China finds itself at a crossroads – after many years of the government recognising a structural imbalance in the Chinese economy, there does not seem to have been a definitive solution found. China wants to boost its economic development and the third plenum should give us some important clues as to which way it intends to go.

The government’s top priority is social stability and for that, economic growth is key. I believe that bolstering the role of the private sector and creating conditions for entrepreneurship to flourish can be of immense benefit to China’s economic development.

I think we will see a repeat of what Premier Li Qiang said at the 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions by the World Economic Forum in Dalian recently about giving more space to the private sector to innovate, and providing more support for foreign investments in China.

For China to continue its robust and open economic interaction with the rest of the world is in everyone’s interest and hopefully the third plenum’s outcome can show signs of travel in that direction.

Signs of some of the headwinds China faces as it prepares for the third plenum were in evidence at the Dalian forum. There was a noticeable lack of Western engagement and this was unfortunate.

The World Economic Forum is a well-established and influential forum to tackle pressing key global issues and for those who stayed away, it is a missed opportunity. It seemed to me there were fewer international participants in Dalian this time. There were fewer of the usual big corporate executives we usually meet in Davos, Switzerland.

As the European president of a joint Chinese and European business school, I know from experience how vital it is to create a neutral and credible communication channel between China and the outside world. More dialogue is needed in times of tension. China will always play a hugely important role in world affairs, tensions or not, so I hope any reservations about attending in future can be put to one side for the sake of constructive dialogue.

Meanwhile, China’s dispute over electric vehicles (EVs) with Europe has the potential to create more friction, and thus underlines the necessity of maximising people-to-people contact. Negotiations continue between China and the European Union over EV tariffs and these are likely to take several twists and turns before the final outcome. The picture is highly complex because it is closely intertwined with geopolitics.

For example, America’s decision to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese EVs creates a gap in the US market and opens up opportunities for countries with closer relationships, such as Japan, which has the capability and ambitions in the EV sector. Honda is on the verge of opening an EV plant in Canada and this could signal the start of a trend for Japanese and other foreign EV makers to invest in production facilities in North America.

I don’t have any predictions on who might be next to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, but I am concerned that the EV dispute between China and Europe could put the World Trade Organization’s role and relevance under unprecedented scrutiny and pressure unless a satisfactory solution is found.

Due to the complexity of the issue, such an outcome looks challenging to achieve. Cars can be emotional products and this is a political time in Europe and North America. It is too easy for politicians to try to win votes by saying they are protecting manufacturing jobs – the influence of domestic politics cannot be underestimated.

Yet I do not believe this issue is quite so urgent since the number of Chinese EVs sold in Europe and North America is quite small. The impact is likely to be that more Chinese EV companies will decide to produce cars in Europe – and this is already happening with BYD’s factories opening in Hungary. What is happening today is a repetition of the 1980s when the Japanese were challenging the European and US car industry.

It would be timely for China’s third plenum to put out positive signs ahead of the US presidential election later this year, which could see Donald Trump return to the White House. Many describe the former president as an unpredictable character and in the event of his election victory, the US-China relationship is likely to suffer.

I fear that anti-China rhetoric during the election campaign will reach a crescendo in the coming months, creating friction. But this would be well anticipated by all sides so the impact is likely to be kept within reasonable limits. Elsewhere, as we can see, Europe is preparing for a possible Trump victory on several fronts.

The relative continuity that a victory for Joe Biden would bring is likely to be the preferred outcome for most European businesses and governments, as well as, one would imagine, much of the business world in general.

Trump rally shooting: Chinese online retailers quick off the mark with souvenir T-shirts

https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3270397/trump-rally-shooting-chinese-online-retailers-quick-mark-souvenir-t-shirts?utm_source=rss_feed

They reacted almost as quickly as US President Joe Biden responded to the dramatic shooting of his election rival Donald Trump.

Former president Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at around 6.15pm local time on Saturday in the US state of Pennsylvania. Associated Press released the iconic photo of a fist-waving Trump at 6.31pm.

Biden’s first public comment on the shooting came at around 8pm, by which time Chinese manufacturers were already primed to churn out T-shirts emblazoned with an image of a defiant Trump.

The first batch went on sale on Taobao, a popular Chinese e-commerce platform, at 8.40pm – before most governments around the world had scrambled together a response.

That is China’s speed.

Li Jinwei, a 25-year-old Taobao seller, had her T-shirts on her online shelves by breakfast time in China.

“We put the T-shirts on Taobao as soon as we saw the news about the shooting, though we hadn’t even printed them, and within three hours we saw more than 2,000 orders from both China and the US,” she said.

Taobao is owned by Alibaba, which also owns the South China Morning Post.

Li’s factory is based in the northern province of Hebei, and to create new products, she simply downloads an image and presses print, with the factory taking an average of one minute to finish a T-shirt.

“For this year’s US presidential election, we only made souvenirs of Trump, as he has a higher chance of winning the election, and he is popular among Chinese netizens,” Li said.

Demand for “election- and rally-themed” custom T-shirts is quite strong in the US market, according to Guangdongbased Allen Yao, co-founder of Xinflying Digital Printing Production.

Earlier this year, Yao opened a fully automated factory in California, with a daily production capacity of around 3,000 T-shirts, a total that is expected to increase to 8,000 by next month.

“The T-shirts are imported from Vietnam and stored in US warehouses, and the production speed is very fast,” Yao said.

A digital printing machine could print 27 square metres (290 sq ft), or about eight election-related T-shirts, in an hour and these could be immediately put on the shelves for sale in California, he added.

“Demand is so strong, and we just can’t produce enough.”

The company plans to open a new factory on the US east coast next year, increasing daily production capacity to 30,000 items.

Data from DHgate, a Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform focusing on the US market, shows that since January, the transaction volume of election-related souvenirs had grown by more than 40 per cent every month, with month-on-month growth rate in March exceeding 110 per cent.

The total transaction value of US election souvenirs in the first quarter was up more than 90 per cent in the same period last year, Shanghai-based media outlet Yicai reported in May, citing data from DHgate.

For other manufacturers, the prospect of a Trump win goes beyond T-shirts and souvenirs – Chinese exporters are starting to front-load shipments for fear of further tariff increases.

This was partly reflected in data for June exports, which rose 8.6 per cent year on year in US dollar terms, while producer price index and new export orders slumped during the same period.

Chinese home goods exporter Sam Xiao said his company in Texas had asked its China headquarters to immediately order and ship products to fill their warehouses before the end of the year.

“Many exporters are discussing the need to ship goods before the election to cope with potential cascading changes ahead, like possible tariff hikes and skyrocketing shipping costs,” he said.

Gao Zhendong, a Beijing-based supply chain specialist helping Chinese firms to invest globally, said the increase in exports would not be great because the Chinese supply chain had already made adjustments over the past six to seven years, and the Biden administration had largely continued the tariff policies of the Trump years.

But a Trump win would affect supply chains.

“Most exporters feel that this unexpected event has significantly increased Trump’s chances of winning,” Gao said.

“If Trump wins, tariffs on the ‘new three’ products [photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries and new energy vehicles], iron and aluminium products will be significantly raised.

“Furthermore, it also implies that related supply chains in Vietnam and Mexico could be negatively impacted, as Trump has consistently criticised Vietnam and Mexico as ‘re-export havens’ for Chinese production.”

Chinese imports, however, were unlikely to drop further, Gao added.

“The volume of trade between China and the United States has significantly decreased in recent years and has stabilised. There is limited room to reduce Chinese imports further because any attempt by the US government to decrease Chinese imports further will be constrained by US inflationary pressures.”

Chinese start-ups with global ambitions poised for success, head of VC fund says

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3270043/chinese-start-ups-global-ambitions-poised-success-head-vc-fund-says?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese start-ups with global ambitions still make attractive investment targets, according to the founder of Shanghai-based venture capital firm 01VC, which is gearing up to invest between US$2 million and US$3 million in each of up to 10 companies in the next two years.

Despite challenges ranging from an economic slowdown to a protracted property slump, China’s economy still grew 5.2 per cent last year, while accounting for 30 per cent of global manufacturing, making its companies well-positioned for global expansion, Ian Goh, founding partner at 01VC, said in an interview.

“The trend of Chinese companies going abroad is becoming more and more apparent in recent years,” he said. “Onshoring, where Chinese companies build their factories in places like Vietnam or Mexico, bringing their automation technology and selling their products in those countries, is creating a great opportunity for investors like us.”

Focusing on robotics, consumer electronics, and business-to-business products and platforms, the VC firm is looking to invest in around 10 companies over the next two years out of a US$65 million fund that it closed at the end of 2023, he said, adding that 01VC’s average ticket size is US$2 million to US$3 million.

The low valuations of Chinese companies, coupled with a shift towards caution among global investors, are creating a “buyer’s market” for fund managers, Goh said.

“Globally, venture capital has raised too much money over the last few years,” he said. “But now, there is no more capital investing for the sake of growth, ignoring fundamentals, and this creates a great opportunity for us to buy and invest.”

Traditionally a backer of early stage, pre-revenue companies, 01VC increasingly finds itself investing in companies that are generating solid cash flow, as valuations in China have fallen to one to two times sales, from five to eight times previously. The firm now invests in rounds ranging from pre-A to Series B, Goh said.

“This is the environment that we’re living in,” he said. “You have to be brave to be a contrarian, and we’re being a contrarian because we are still deploying money.”

01VC manages four US-dollar funds and one yuan-denominated fund, totalling US$300 million in assets under management, Goh said, adding that the firm is in the planning stages of another yuan fund.

The dollar funds are primarily backed by institutional investors, including family offices, funds of funds and foundations in Asia and the US, he said.

A notable company in 01VC’s portfolio is Hong Kong-based logistics company Lalamove, which announced plans last March to list on the city’s stock exchange. This followed its confidential filing in the US two years earlier to raise at least US$1 billion through a public share sale.

Tymo, a start-up specialising in beauty electronics and fashion retail, and Hezhong Enterprise Cloud, a firm focused on cloud computing and database solutions, are among 01VC’s most recent investments, according to Crunchbase.

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Barbecued ‘high heels’, ‘grenades’: bizarre China grilled food lures daring epicureans

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3270179/barbecued-high-heels-grenades-bizarre-china-grilled-food-lures-daring-epicureans?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s love affair with barbecued food has reached new levels of creativity.

In a culinary leap, the popular cuisine has extended beyond traditional meat skewers to include offbeat offerings such as watermelon, cacti, ice cubes and eggplants shaped like high-heeled shoes.

A recent video posted on Xiaohongshu by a food blogger called Jinkesi, which has had more than 18,000 likes, shows the quirky food being made in a restaurant in Chengdu, Sichuan province in southwestern China.

The video starts with cacti as big as shoe soles, which have had the sharp spines removed, being grilled as a sprinkling of chilli powder and cumin is added to soften them.

Another food not usually associated with barbecues that appears in the video is watermelon.

Long strips of the fruit on skewers are neatly placed on the grill. They quickly turn a deep red after being seasoned, and are then ready to serve.

The innovations are just the beginning of China’s quirky barbecue trend.

On Douyin, videos under the hashtag “everything can be grilled” have amassed nearly 3 billion views, with the most popular one featuring grilled ice pops that attracted 2 million likes.

In another video, the frozen desserts on sticks are unwrapped, placed on the grill and brushed with a spicy sauce, then dipped in black sesame seeds and hundreds and thousands of rainbow sprinkles.

Confused netizens wondered why the ice pops do not melt on the fire and are asking: “So should this dish be eaten hot or cold?”

The trend has also inspired numerous individuals to create their own unique barbecue dishes that resemble everyday objects such as boots, toys and even military weapons.

For instance, eggplants are carved into high heels, roasted sausages are made into Peppa Pig and green peppers are sculpted into grenade shapes.

People online have embraced the bonkers barbecues, with many describing them as mind-blowing.

“The world has finally become more bizarre than I imagined. When I lose my mind, I’ll try these foods too,” said one online observer.

Another person said: “The roasted cacti have plenty of water and are super delicious.”

“How about grilling a plane, a tank, or even a submarine? Can you grill a gas cylinder?” somebody playfully asked.

According to Hongcan, a data portal focusing on food and drinks, more than 330,000 barbecue restaurants are vying for customers across China.

There is an unrivalled passion for barbecue in China and the country even has a social trend devoted to it in Zibo, a city in the eastern province of Shandong, which has been dubbed “China’s new outdoor barbecue capital”.

Unlike the traditional northeastern barbecues or the latest quirky creations, barbecues in Zibo are distinctive for their unique serving style – grilled meat wrapped in local spring onions inside flatbread.

Bloomberg Businessweek reported that in March last year about 4.8 million tourists visited Zibo specifically for its barbecue food.

China set for third plenum that could prove a ‘defining moment’ of Xi Jinping era

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3270383/china-set-third-plenum-could-prove-defining-moment-xi-jinping-era?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s ruling Communist Party will begin a key meeting on Monday that may determine the country’s course for the next decade.

The event could be the most important “defining moment” of President Xi Jinping’s rule since a similar gathering in 2013 that set out his vision for reforming the country, according to one political researcher from Tsinghua University.

He said the watershed third plenum would be used by the party elite to review achievements under Xi’s leadership and lay down plans to hit goals set for 2035, “which will lay the groundwork for the president’s grand legacy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049”.

The main focus of the meeting of more than 370 full and alternate members of the party’s Central Committee is expected to be deciding the best strategy for coping with the economic challenges facing the country.

The event, formally known as the third plenum of the 20th Central Committee, is also likely to offer more details about the road map for reaching a series of interim industrial and technological goals to be reached by 2035 and the target of becoming a technology superpower with a world-class military by 2049.

The event is expected to close on Thursday with a brief communique summarising the key decisions. According to precedent, this should then be followed within days by a full party document outlining the decisions made.

However, observers warned that these documents would only set out the general policy direction – often overlaid with party jargon – and a fuller picture would only emerge once specific policy details and the country’s next five-year plan are unveiled in the coming months.

The event comes at a time when Beijing is trying to assure both foreign business and the domestic private sector about the country’s economic prospects – a challenge some of the most significant third plenums have tried to address in the past.

Beijing also faces other major domestic challenges including a demographic crisis, sluggish growth and mounting debts among local governments as well as increasing pressure from the West following the recent Nato summit that denounced Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Apart from economic policy, observers will also be watching to see how the plenum handles the cases of three Central Committee members facing corruption inquiries – former defence minister Li Shangfu, former agriculture minister Tang Renjian and former rocket force chief Li Yuchao – as well as alternate member Li Shisong, a former deputy governor of Yunnan.

There will also be keen interest in any clues about the fate of Qin Gang, who was abruptly dismissed as foreign minister last year, and a possible announcement that Li Shangfu’s successor Dong Jun has been given a place on the Central Military Commission.

State news agency Xinhua has been setting the tone for the gathering with a series of articles praising the achievements of the past decade followed by another series on the “inspirational” lessons to be drawn from Xi’s rule in the past decade.

Meanwhile, the security apparatus has been urged to “make every effort to safeguard national security and social stability” in the build-up, with Chen Wenqing, the party’s most senior security official, stressing that the event coincides with this year’s 75th anniversary of the founding the People’s Republic of China.

Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, said Xi would use the plenum to advance his existing agenda focused on party control, technological self-reliance, financial de-risking, social welfare, and supply-side industrial policy.

“But the political challenges of economic pessimism could lead to some very modest ‘positive surprises’. The most intriguing new signals ahead of the plenum suggest the possibility of more pro-business policies in hi-tech domains, although Xi does not want to unleash entrepreneurs and markets but rather harness them to develop technology and boost manufacturing,” he said.

“Positive but not transformational signals that appear likely include increasing central borrowing to support local public services, allowing localities to raise and retain more revenue, cracking down on local protectionism, relaxing the household registration system, reducing the negative list for foreign investment, and reforms to data markets, rural land rights, and SOE [state-owned enterprises] governance.”

A political analyst based in mainland China, who requested anonymity, said the event would provide the blueprint for the next five-year plan, which will run from 2026 to 2030.

“If you find the party language [in the documents published after the plenum] too difficult to understand, just wait for the next government work report in March and the next five-year plan, major important policies will be there. You should wait until then to decide if there is anything to celebrate,” he said.

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How the Trump Pennsylvania shooting attempt looked from China

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3270385/how-trump-shooting-attempt-looked-china?utm_source=rss_feed

The apparent assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump swiftly became the top trending topic on Chinese social media, drawing comparisons with other political figures killed by gunmen.

Within hours of the shooting at the campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the topics “#Trump was shot” and “#Trump says a bullet pierced his right ear” were among the most searched on microblogging service Weibo.

The tone of the comments ranged from neutral to gloating, with various commenters saying the presumptive Republican Party nominee “failed to meet Shinzo Abe”, a reference to the former Japanese prime minister who was assassinated in 2022.

Others drew parallels with the 1963 death of US president John F. Kennedy and marvelled at Trump’s luck.

“A simple turn of his head during the speech saved him, otherwise it could have been fatal,” a commenter said.

The incident prompted some internet users to highlight the wide access to firearms in the United States and the frequent number of gun crimes.

“America is a mess, shootings happen every day. The assassination is a result of the proliferation of guns.”

Others suggested that the shooting was staged and that “after the bullet pierced his ear, he still showed his head and raised his arms to cheer”.

“Trump will make full use of this shooting and further improve his support rate,” another said.

The US Secret Service said in a statement that the suspected shooter “fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside the rally” before being “neutralised” by agents, Agence France-Presse reported.

It said Trump was “safe and being evaluated” while confirming the death of a spectator. Two others were critically wounded.

The identity of the assailant has not been confirmed.

Tabloid newspaper The New York Post said initially that the shooter was “identified as a Chinese man” before reporting that the gunman was “identified only as a white male”.

The Chinese foreign ministry has not commented on the incident.

A BeiDou-like satnav system for the moon? Chinese scientists plot a possible route

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3270195/satnav-system-moon-chinese-scientists-plot-possible-route?utm_source=rss_feed

The moon could soon have its own satellite navigation system, according to a proposal by Chinese scientists.

The team from the Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering proposed the construction of 21 satellites around the moon which would provide real-time, high-precision navigation to support China’s lunar ambitions.

The satellites will be deployed in four types of orbits over three phases, featuring a sustainable and cost-effective design, according to a paper published last month in the journal, Chinese Space Science and Technology.

While the paper did not specify a construction timeline, China aims to put astronauts on the moon by 2030 and to build a research base at the lunar south pole with international partners around 2035.

“A satellite constellation in near-lunar space can provide real-time, high-precision navigation and positioning for lunar surface movement, landing and take-off, and support high-frequency human exploration of the moon in the long run,” wrote the team led by Peng Jing, deputy chief designer of China’s Chang’e-5 mission.

“Our study presented a road map to assemble such a constellation step by step, expanding its coverage from the lunar south pole region to the entire moon.”

On Earth, global navigation satellite systems such as the United States’ GPS and China’s BeiDou are in wide use, making it easier to find locations and plan routes.

Such systems usually comprise 20 to 35 satellites and have an accuracy of a few metres. Each satellite beams off radio signals, allowing the user to determine their location and time using a combination of signals from at least four satellites.

In the study, Peng and his team assessed three major factors of a lunar navigation system: the “quadruple coverage” of having signals from at least four satellites at any given time, the navigation precision, and the construction and maintenance costs.

They found that during the first phase of construction, just placing two satellites in a highly elliptical, extremely stable orbit would guarantee full-time communication between Earth and the moon’s south pole region, with minimal use of fuel for station-keeping once they reach orbit.

In the second phase, by adding nine satellites and two orbit types, the constellation could provide full-time navigation for the lunar south pole region and support around-the-clock communication between Earth and any place on the moon.

In the final phase, placing a total of 21 satellites in four types of orbits, the complete constellation could give relatively accurate positioning for any place on the lunar surface for more than 70 per cent of the time.

The team planned to optimise the parameters of each orbit type and develop a more systematic design for the lunar navigation constellation, the researchers wrote.

China has developed and deployed two communications relay satellites, Queqiao-1 and Queqiao-2, in near-lunar space to support its historic missions to explore the far side of the moon in recent years.

The US, Europe and Japan have also announced plans to develop moon-based navigation constellations.

One such plan is Japan’s Lunar Navigation Satellite System, proposed in 2022. It will consist of eight satellites circling the moon in highly elliptical orbits, providing communication, positioning and navigation services for the lunar south pole region.

To tell China’s story well, its writers must be free enough to do so

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3270095/tell-chinas-story-well-its-writers-must-be-free-enough-do-so?utm_source=rss_feed

Last October, I had the honour and pleasure of participating in the Frankfurt Book Fair, since my memoir, “Socialism Is Great!”: A Worker’s Memoir of the New China, had just come out in Germany. As I wandered from one Chinese publisher’s exhibition stand to another, images of President Xi Jinping’s smiling face followed me.

Quite a few publishers were promoting his political thoughts, with books such as .

Almost exactly 11 years ago, during his first year of administration, Xi spoke of the need to “tell China’s story well”, his strategy for better external communications and to project a more favourable image of the nation. It has since been at the heart of Beijing’s push for soft power and a bigger voice in international discourse.

Xi called for the portrayal of a “true, three-dimensional and complete China”. The aim was to make sure the world heard China’s voice over Western narratives, which tend to be negative. I fully support this notion; of course Chinese people deserve to have their voices heard.

Traditionally, Western readers preferred to read about foreign countries through their own authors, whom they felt they could relate to. Books such as A Merry Dance Around the World by British author Eric Newby and by Austrian explorer Heinrich Harrer were popular.

These days, however, people have become more interested in books by local authors, who possess insight into their societies that outsiders lack. The immense success of books such as and reflects that desire.

Indeed, I have benefited from this shifting trend. The hardback of my memoir about my experience of working at a missile factory in Nanjing was first published by a large independent publisher in New York in 2008, and soon picked up by Random House. It has now been published in 11 countries.

When my publisher Nora Frisch of Drachenhaus Verlag was introduced to my book, she said she was thrilled. “There are plenty of earnest books about China, but there are not enough books telling human stories. As China is rising, people in the West are interested in such stories.”

Western readers and publishers, the independent ones in particular, are hungry for compelling China stories. But they are not readily available at major book fairs such as the Frankfurt Book Fair and London Book Fair.

Chinese publishers, essentially all state-owned and effectively the government’s publishing wing, produce diverse and decent books, but what gets promoted in the international market are usually titles about Xi’s political thoughts, the stunning success of China’s poverty alleviation and the fast-growing economy. Little wonder none of it has made it onto an international bestselling list.

Sales of translated fiction have been on the rise, slowly but steadily, with Japan and South Korea enjoying much success. China has also achieved some success. Works by renowned authors such as Mo Yan, Yan Lianke and Yu Hua, have been translated. Mo won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2012. Unfortunately, there are still not nearly enough Chinese novels introduced abroad.

Although fiction is seen as less of a priority compared to the “politically correct” books, the Chinese authorities do try to promote it. There are generous grants from the government and major publishers to fund translation projects, but mainstream publishers in the West are often suspicious of books approved by the Chinese government.

What have been filling the gap are books by Chinese-born authors living in the West and writing in English or European languages. Successful examples include Yiyun Li, Ha Jin, Jung Chang and Guo Xiaolu. Such writers boast insightful knowledge of China, a good understanding of the Western market and equally importantly, are free from the shackles of censorship.

After 11 years, the “tell China’s story well” campaign has not gone down well. Despite the millions of dollars spent on cultivating soft power, China’s image in the world has not improved at all. Americans’ view of China has remained largely negative, according to the Pew Research Centre’s survey. This is a reflection of not just China’s conduct but also its communication failures.

China has not produced enough titles that both explain China and genuinely appeal to Western readers. The problem lies with the authorities’ overly strict control. They should step back a little, allowing novels that do not portray China in glowing terms to reach the international market.

Like books, films are vigorously censored. In 2022, I watched, in floods of tears, a wonderful Chinese film called about an unlikely love story between a disabled woman and her husband, a poor man in the village. The film was pulled in China, apparently because it presented a less-than-flattering image of rural life.

I think it is exactly the sort of film the government should promote. Sure, the couple is poor, but that’s just reality. Both characters are loving, hardworking and resilient. Unless you had a heart of stone, you would root for them.

As the relationship between China and the West cools, a fear of China has grown. I believe some of the fear is generated by ignorance. Seen through novels and films, especially moving ones like Return to Dust, Chinese people are portrayed as fellow humans with dreams and struggles. With increased empathy, there will be less fear among the Western audience.

China does have many great writers. Let their voices be heard at home as well as abroad; let a hundred flowers bloom.

China’s population crisis demands ‘dynamic monitoring’ of households, more support: adviser

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3270269/chinas-population-crisis-demands-dynamic-monitoring-households-more-support-adviser?utm_source=rss_feed

To keep better apprised of population and household changes and trends across China during its dim demographic crisis, Beijing has been urged to establish a vast data-monitoring system and brace for population declines becoming the norm.

“China’s population and family statistics system and dynamic monitoring mechanisms should be improved, with increased financial and personnel support,” said He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Centre, a think tank affiliated with the National Health Commission.

“The goal is to establish a uniquely Chinese population-and-family-statistics system, and a dynamic monitoring system, during the ‘15th five-year plan’ period from 2026-30,” the policy adviser added.

The suggestions are intended to research the mechanisms behind population and family changes; to support demographic decision-making and family services; and to actively address the effects of low fertility and ageing, He wrote in an article published in the June issue of the commission’s Population and Health magazine.

The proposals came amid persistent concerns regarding China’s demographic crisis – a shrinking population is rapidly ageing as births plunge and many young adults are increasingly reluctant to start a family.

Economists have called China’s demographic dilemma one of the major obstacles to the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy.

Last year, the country’s population dropped for the second year in a row, down to 1.4097 billion after a 2.08-million-person decline. Only 9.02 million births were reported in 2023 – the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1949.

But even with demographers expecting a brief rebound in newborn numbers over the next couple of years – owing to end-of-pandemic effects, a raft of pronatalist policies being implemented, and this being the auspicious Year of the Dragon in China’s zodiac – the longer-term outlook expects births to continue declining.

The demographers point to fewer women of childbearing age and a significantly more averse attitude toward marriage and children among young adults.

While the number of Chinese households is expected to increase to 550 million by 2035, up from 494 million in 2020, the average family size could drop to 2.3 people from 2.62 people, according to the China Population and Development Research Centre.

Meanwhile, He said that China’s demographic statistics and public policies do not fully illustrate or address the lack of support and attention given to households.

“China should consider families as the fundamental unit of public policy – strengthen family values, consolidate family functions, and establish a unique family-public-policy system with Chinese characteristics,” He said, adding that some goals include stabilising fertility expectations and enhancing the ability of families to spend more money.

She also said research institutions should be encouraged to jointly establish a national population and family big data laboratory for statistical analysis and policy simulation to enhance decision-making support, while also incorporating artificial intelligence-driven population models into national research and development plans to promote innovative research methods.

Chinese tech companies face increased EU compliance costs amid bloc’s new AI rules

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3270374/chinese-tech-companies-face-increased-eu-compliance-costs-amid-blocs-new-ai-rules?utm_source=rss_feed

The world’s first comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI) rules, which will come into effect throughout the European Union (EU) on August 1, is projected to raise the costs of assessment and compliance for Chinese tech enterprises doing business in the bloc’s 27 member states, according to industry experts.

The Artificial Intelligence Act, which was approved by the EU Council in May after it was passed into law by the European Parliament in March, aims to protect fundamental rights, democracy, the rule of law and environmental sustainability from so-called high-risk AI, while boosting innovation and establishing Europe as a leader in the technology.

Some Chinese AI firms already expect to spend more time and money to comply with the EU’s new rules, while faced with the spectre of overregulation potentially hindering innovation.

Hong Kong-based Dayta AI, which provides retail analytics software around the world, expects the EU regulation’s “compliance and assessment requirements [to] increase R&D [research and development] and testing costs” for the firm by around 20 per cent to 40 per cent, company co-founder and chief executive Patrick Tu said. He pointed out that the higher spending will cover “additional documentation, audits, and [certain] technological measures”.

The new EU rules’ passage and implementation reflects the global race to draw up AI guardrails amid the boom in generative AI (GenAI) services since OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022. GenAI refers to algorithms that can be used to create new content – including audio, code, images, text, simulations and videos – in response to short prompts.

“The EU’s institutions may give people an impression of overregulating,” said Tanguy Van Overstraeten, a partner at Linklaters and head of the law firm’s technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) group in Brussels, Belgium. “What the EU is trying to do with the AI Act is to create an environment of trust.”

The AI Act establishes obligations for the technology based on its potential risks and level of impact. The regulation consists of 12 main titles that cover prohibited practices, high-risk systems and transparency obligations to governance, post-market monitoring, information sharing and market surveillance.

The regulation will also require member states to establish so-called regulatory sandboxes and real-world testing at the national level. The rules, however, do not apply to AI systems or AI models, including their outputs, which are specifically developed and put into service for the sole purpose of scientific research and development.

If companies “want to test [an AI application] in real life, they can benefit from the so-called sandbox that can last up to 12 months, during which they can test the system within certain boundaries”, Linklaters’ Van Overstraeten said.

Non-compliance to the rules’ prohibition of certain AI practices shall be subject to administrative fines of up to 35 million euros (US$38 million) or up to 7 per cent of the offending firm’s total worldwide annual turnover for the preceding financial year, whichever is higher.

Dayta AI’s Tu said the EU’s mandates surrounding “the quality, relevance, and representativeness of training data will require us to be even more diligent in selecting our data sources”.

“Such focus on data quality will ultimately enhance the performance and fairness of our solution,” he added.

Tu said the AI Act provides “a comprehensive, user rights-focused approach” that “imposes strict limitations on personal data usage”. By comparison, the “rules in China and Hong Kong seem to focus more on enabling technological progress and aligning with the government’s strategic priorities”, he said.

On August 15 last year, Beijing implemented new GenAI regulations. It stipulates that GenAI service providers must “adhere to core socialist values” and not generate any content that “incites subversion of state power and the overthrow of the socialist system, endangers national security and interests, damages the image of the country, incites secession from the country, undermines national unity and social stability, promotes terrorism, extremism, national hatred and ethnic discrimination, violence, obscenity and pornography”.

More generally, AI models and chatbots should not generate “false and harmful information”.

“Chinese regulations require companies and products to observe socialist values and ensure that their AI outputs are not perceived as harmful to political and social stability,” said Linklaters’ Shanghai partner Alex Roberts, who also heads the firm’s China TMT group. “For multinational corporations that have not grown up with these concepts, this can cause confusion among compliance officers.”

He added that China’s regulation so far only focuses on GenAI, and “is seen as more of a state or government-led rule book”, while the EU’s AI Act “focuses on the rights of users”.

Still, Roberts described the main principles of the EU and China’s AI regulations as “very similar”. That refers to being “transparent with customers, protecting data, being accountable to the stakeholders, and providing instructions and guidance on the product”.

Beijing has also been pushing to enact a comprehensive AI law. The State Council, China’s cabinet, listed that initiative in its annual legislation plans for 2023 and 2024. A draft law, however, has not yet been proposed.

Other jurisdictions in Asia have also been working on AI regulations. South Korea, for example, last year drafted its “Act on Promotion of AI Industry and Framework for Establishing Trustworthy AI”. This proposed regulation is still under review.

“We’re now seeing some governments in the [Asia-Pacific] region taking large chunks from the EU’s regulation on data and AI, as they work on their own AI legislation,” Linklaters’ Roberts said. “Businesses can certainly consider lobbying their local government stakeholders to achieve more harmony and consistency in cross-market rules.”

A study in ethics: the Chinese science detectives hard on the trail of academic misconduct

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3268242/study-ethics-chinese-science-detectives-hard-trail-academic-misconduct?utm_source=rss_feed

Wu Guangheng had some good news: Wiley, a US academic publishing company, was launching an investigation into one of its journals after it had been flagged by Wu’s team over suspected misconduct.

It was a small win for Wu, founder and president of the 5GH Foundation. His organisation – a non-profit agency based in Guangdong province – describes itself as providing services “such as consultancy and funding management in the field of science and technology”. But one of its other roles is exposing the wrongdoings of China’s academic journals.

In the past, this kind of academic detective job was mainly done in the West. Now, with funding from the Chinese government, new players such as Wu have stepped into the role, investigating not only Chinese researchers, but also those from other countries suspected of wrongdoing.

Just last month, the team received a tip-off via their social media account to look into Professor M. Santosh, a geologist at the school of earth sciences and resources at the China University of Geosciences, Beijing (CUGB).

Wu said Santosh’s high productivity attracted their attention because usually a scientist, even one with a large team, could only publish about 10 papers a year, while Santosh had already published more than 60 papers since the start of 2024.

This was not the first time someone had raised concerns about Santosh, and Wu and his colleagues decided to dig into it.

They finally established that since 2020, more than 65 per cent of Santosh’s publications in four journals – all run by Chinese research institutions – involved an “author-editor conflict”.

According to their definition, such a conflict exists when the reviewer or editor of a paper has had a relatively large number of collaborative relationships with the author, such as co-authorship, in the previous three years.

What was more, in three of his published articles, Santosh was found to be the handling editor of his own paper, a behaviour that directly contradicts the fairness requirement of academic publishing conventions.

The South China Morning Post tried to contact Santosh and CUGB for a response, but did not receive a reply.

Such government-funded science detectives, like Wu, are on the rise amid China’s push to grow its own domestic academic journals and move away from the Western-dominated science publishing sphere.

Over the past two decades, China has become the world’s biggest producer of scientific knowledge, but while it has nearly 5,000 journals, only a handful have international impact.

In 2019, the government launched China’s Journal Excellence Action Plan, a five-year initiative aimed at creating a portfolio of 400 world-class journals owned by Chinese institutions to lure high-level research back to the country. This year is the final year of the plan.

“In recent years, Beijing has wanted to create some high-quality scientific journals, and many universities are being funded to do so, but there are still many challenges,” Wu said.

The 5GH Foundation’s efforts are part of this ambitious plan. He said that although there were official watchdog bodies in place to evaluate these journals, the authorities were gradually realising the need for independent third parties.

Funded mainly by the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Wu’s team is granted a relatively large degree of freedom in deciding their research projects and investigation methods, but they report their achievements and progress to the funders every year.

In this latest investigation into Santosh, they started by listing all of his published papers since 2020, collating those that met the author-editor conflict definition. After analysing more than 200 articles, four journals in particular caught their attention.

“As these four journals disclose who is responsible for editing the papers they publish, we can get the information, and another factor is that Santosh has published many articles in these journals,” he said.

Wu said these journals had become influential publications in geoscience, with their impact rising rapidly in recent years.

Wu said that since the number of papers published in top journals was an important evaluation indicator for research institutions in China, encouraging its researchers to publish more articles in these self-owned journals gave the university an advantage in evaluations. As a result, the universities in charge of these journals had incentives to tolerate some unethical behaviour, Wu noted.

Geoscience Frontiers is one journal that Wu and his team are paying particular attention to. According to the team’s research, Santosh has published 39 papers in the journal so far this year, of which 37 are suspected of misconduct, accounting for 95 per cent of his papers.

Geoscience Frontiers is operated by both CUGB and Peking University, which publishes research articles and reviews in interdisciplinary areas of earth and planetary sciences, and where Santosh serves as editorial adviser.

The journal refused to respond to requests for comment on the allegation.

Academic whistle-blowers have long been an important part of the scientific community.

In China, for example, the mainland’s self-appointed “science cop” Fang Shimin, better known by his pen name Fang Zhouzi, is both famous and controversial for his campaign against pseudoscience and science fraud in China.

Fang was particularly active in the media over a decade ago, accompanying the rapid rise of scientific research, economic development and the internet boom in China, but his actions have been criticised for lacking the transparency that would allow proper investigations.

Today, Elisabeth Bik, a microbiologist from the Netherlands who moved to the United States nearly two decades ago, has become one of the world’s most influential science detectives as a super-spotter of photo manipulation in scientific publications.

Bik worked at Stanford University for 15 years, and since 2019 has been a full-time science sleuth. The integrity consultant has reported problems in more than 7,000 scientific papers and her work has led to more than 1,000 retractions and another 1,000 corrections.

In an interview in 2023, she said the chances of getting caught breaking the rules in science were not particularly high.

“The rewards are high, but the chances of punishment are low,” she said.

In the United States, a Silicon Valley investor pledged US$1 million in February to help pay the legal fees of scientists sued for flagging fraudulent research, thereby ensuring that the threat of costly legal action will not silence critics.

Meanwhile in China, as government support and encouragement has seen the number of academic journals rise rapidly in recent years, Wu said it was widely acknowledged that there were a range of problems and loopholes.

But, he said, few were willing to delve deeper into the issues.

“Authorities such as the NSFC, which have poured money in setting up and running scientific journals, want to review the quality of these journals, and thus they need independent institutions to help with the assessment,” he said.

Before moving to his present role at the end of 2022, Wu was a materials scientist at a top university in southern China.

He said that at the time, his team was working on developing materials technology – and they gradually realised that some of the tools they were using, including big data and artificial intelligence, could be used to detect possible misconduct in papers.

Unlike detectives such as Bik, who focus more on plagiarism or fraud by academics, Wu’s team is more interested in improper or illegal practices at the journal level, because they believe this is a niche area that has received less attention both domestically and internationally.

Author-editor conflicts fall into this niche, and their present investigation is not the first time they have uncovered such conflicts.

In May, they published an article alleging that Wang Aijie, a professor with dual appointments at the Harbin Institute of Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, had acted as a handling editor for her own papers in the journal Environmental Research, where she is on the editorial board.

By making some of their investigations public on their website and social media accounts, Wu said they could attract public attention, help gather more leads or put pressure on the scientists and research institutions involved.

After publishing the article about Santosh’s alleged breach of academic fairness on June 12, they received many comments from researchers, with some providing extra information about more potential ethical problems.

While following these new leads, Wu’s team have already reported their findings to the publishers of the journals involved as well as agencies such as the Science Citation Index (SCI), an indexing database covering more than 9,200 journals.

“The scientific community should have more social watchdog organisations like yours to keep researchers on their toes,” one reader commented under their article.

When they have finished their Santosh investigation, Wu said, they would get stuck in again, with the next target a group of journals in the environmental field.

The management of scientific journals in China had come a long way, though, a researcher at CUGB stressed.

The researcher, a colleague of Santosh’s who asked not to be named, said the ethical requirements for publishing papers were becoming more comprehensive, with more restrictions on citing references, for instance.

According to a report by state news agency Xinhua in January, the construction of China’s world-class journals has “achieved significant results” since the implementation of the Journal Excellence Action Plan in 2019.

It said that the number of domestic journals whose influence had entered the top 5 per cent of international rankings in their disciplines has increased more than fivefold.