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• Why the Tumen River border could test relations between China, Russia and North Korea
• Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hints at broader trade action against China
• China’s new ‘giant panda college’ to welcome first students in autumn
• Nato vs China: ‘blame-shifters’ take aim at a ‘decisive enabler’ on Russia’s war in Ukraine
• Could China’s ‘intelligent’ 6G experiment signal the way to next-generation technology?
• Job hunting China graduate turns into walking advert in bid to land work
• Guinea-Bissau and China announce strategic partnership during state visit
• Tanks for the memories: China youth let off steam with Russia war game holidays
• Finland’s once-brisk China ties rattled as Russia sanctions fracture travel, trade links
• Trouble brews for China coffee chain after jobseeker rejected for being ‘timid, weak’
• China and Russia hold drills as Japan and Nato raise alarms over Ukraine
• China critics pan AI ‘rejuvenation’ of Jackie Chan in new film ‘A Legend’
• How much does Japan need Chinese imports? And which appliance trade surprisingly sizzles?
• China looms large as Philippines-Japan defence pact heads for Senate showdown
• As crises hit plagued Niger-Benin oil pipeline, it may be up to China to end the deadlock
• Tormented China husband tracks wife with drone, discovers tryst with boss in remote hut
• China bans clinical research in germline genome editing as ‘irresponsible’
• Joe Biden’s age in perspective – at 81, China’s oldest imperial ruler gave up the throne
• South China Sea: Marcos has resisted drastic moves so far, but for how long?
• From the sky to the sea: how China and US are racing to win the game of drones

Why the Tumen River border could test relations between China, Russia and North Korea

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270345/why-tumen-river-border-could-test-relations-between-china-russia-and-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed

China has been trying to persuade Russia and North Korea to open a stretch of the Tumen River to Chinese cargo shipping for decades, a step that would provide direct access to the sea from the landlocked northeastern province of Jilin.

Although its hopes may have been raised by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments following his recent visits to Beijing and Pyongyang the issue could still test the strength of the three-way relations.

Despite their close ties with Beijing, both Russia and North Korea still have reservations about allowing Chinese shipping – especially its navy – access to a key waterway while some analysts believe Beijing may be wary about getting too close to the pair for fear of further harming its relations with the West.

In a joint statement issued after Putin’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing in May, the pair agreed to hold a “constructive dialogue” with North Korea about letting Chinese ships sail through the lower Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, or East Sea.

The three countries were expected to talk about this “soon”, Nikkei Asia reported last month, citing unnamed sources.

The river forms part of North Korea’s border with both of its neighbours, but a 17km (10½-mile) stretch along the Russian border is largely unnavigable for freight vessels because of a Soviet-era railway bridge linking the two sides.

During Putin’s recent visit to North Korea the two countries signed an agreement to build a new cross-border road bridge – a move some observers believe might lead to the demolition of the old bridge, making the route more accessible for shipping.

However, others doubt that Pyongyang and Moscow would want to open the route to Chinese shipping – especially warships.

Li Lifan, an specialist in Russian and Central Asian studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that after years of talks it would “be a strategic win and a dream come true” for China to open up the river.

“China can shorten the freight voyage to Japan and Europe and reduce costs through the sea outlet on the Tumen River.

“Russia in return will be able to fully develop its Far East region with China’s help, with Chinese investments pouring in to stimulate local economic growth,” Li said, adding that it would help Moscow counter the impact of Western sanctions.

Both Russia and North Korea have historically been reluctant to see China gaining more influence in that region, where historical grievances fester about it being forced to cede territory to Russia in the 19th century when the Tsarist empire took advantage of China’s weakness to secure what is now the port of Vladivostok.

Li said Putin appeared to have changed his mind by agreeing to work with China to develop the Tumen link to the sea, and if Beijing was willing to pay for the new bridge “I don’t see why Pyongyang and Moscow would refuse such an offer”.

“When a new bridge is built, it is fairly likely, and preferable from China’s perspective, to have the old bridge demolished, which would clear the main obstacle for the navigation of big cargo ships,” Li added.

Stephen Nagy, a professor at International Christian University in Tokyo, said: “Opening the Tumen River to shipping does provide China more diversity in terms of export routes, the ability to project power into the Sea of Japan, and potential access to the Arctic, an area that is seen as important for shipping, resources and competition.”

But both Moscow and Pyongyang “may find it distasteful to have Chinese naval vessels navigating through their waters”, according to Nagy.

“Remember, both North Korea and Russia are conscious and anxious about China’s long-term intentions for the Far East, anxieties that flare when Chinese counterparts make faux pas about how the territories now part of Russia and North Korea used to be Chinese,” he said.

Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said it was too early to say Moscow and Pyongyang would agree to Beijing’s demands for an outlet to the Sea of Japan.

“As far as I understand, there are no plans or agreements to demolish the existing cross-border railway bridge between Russia and North Korea.

“The agreement signed in Pyongyang during Putin’s recent visit calls for the construction of another vehicle bridge. So there will be two Russian-North Korean bridges on the lower riches of the Tumen River instead of one,” he said.

“I don’t think Russia and North Korea have an interest in allowing Chinese cargo … into the Sea of Japan. For one thing, if China gets direct access to the Sea of Japan, it would threaten the business of Russian and North Korean ports on the Sea of Japan, such as Vladivostok, Nakhodka and [Rason – a North Korean port formerly known as Rajin-Sonbong].”

Instead, Moscow might allow Beijing to use the Tumen for tourist and pleasure cruises, but “freight shipping, and especially naval navigation, on the lower reaches of the Tumen seems a rather unlikely prospect at the moment,” he said.

However, Lukin went to say that “nothing is impossible. At some point, Russia, North Korea and China might agree to the conditions to open up full-scale navigation on the Tumen. But this is not the cards right now.”

Natasha Kuhrt, a senior lecturer in international peace and security at King’s College London, said Russia was concerned about giving Chinese warships access to the Sea of Japan.

“It would be a massive undertaking to make the river navigable in fact, because it is too shallow at the moment and the cost of regular dredging would be huge. Of course it would be beneficial for China and at the moment it has to pay North Korea for use of the Rajin port,” she said.

She also said: “I don’t think China would want to be locked into any kind of alliance with Pyongyang. China doesn’t ‘do alliances’ in any case. Beijing doesn’t have control over the regime there.”

Nagy agreed, saying: “I do not see steps towards an alliance. China does not want to get involved in Putin’s reckless war [in Ukraine] or with the unpredictable Kim Jong-un regime.”

Pang Zhongying, a professor of international affairs at Sichuan University, argued Beijing may not have much to gain from its deepening alignment with its two neighbours.

“Given the complexity in the China-Russia-North Korea triangle, what Putin did is probably just another hollow promise because it’s highly unlikely that China would be allowed to have an outlet to the Sea of Japan,” he said.

“In fact, even if the lower Tumen River opens for shipping, China may still need permission from Russia and North Korea to use it.”

He said China was at a crossroads and would have to choose between the West and Russia as it looked to fix its own economic problems, but picking Moscow and Pyongyang would not solve these problems “and would not bode well for its international image in the midst of the Ukraine war”.

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Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hints at broader trade action against China

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3270377/canadas-finance-minister-chrystia-freeland-hints-broader-trade-action-against-china?utm_source=rss_feed

Canada’s finance minister said she will hold talks next week with business and labour groups about erecting trade barriers against Chinese-made vehicles – and suggested the government may even go beyond cars.

The government last month announced a public consultation on how to respond to “unfair Chinese trade practices” of electric vehicles. But “the consultation actually could be broader than that,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in an interview on Friday with Bloomberg News.

Canada, which relies heavily on two-way trade with the US, has been closely watching the Biden administration’s moves to impose higher tariffs against Chinese EVs, solar cells, batteries, steel and other products.

Canada has no choice but to view its trading relationships through a national security lens, said Freeland, who’s also the deputy prime minister.

“Geopolitics and geoeconomics is back. That means that Western countries – and very much the US – is putting a premium on secure supply chains and is taking a different attitude towards Chinese overcapacity,” she said. “And that means that Canada plays an even more important role for the United States.”

Freeland, who has Ukrainian heritage, pointed to this week’s statement by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation that China is a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“What Nato said this week about China is significant,” the minister said. “I would sort of urge people to pay attention to that.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is seeking to align itself with Group of Seven allies after the Biden administration unveiled plans to hike tariffs on Chinese goods and the European Union announced new levies as high as 48 per cent on Chinese vehicles. Canada currently imposes about a 6 per cent levy on Chinese vehicles.

Bloomberg News was first to report last month that Canada was preparing the way to potentially increase tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, following the US and EU moves. The public consultation is the first stage of the process.

China, which has denied allegations from Western countries that it is flooding the market with cheap goods, has also said tariffs could undermine trade and economic cooperation between Beijing and Ottawa.

The government is also facing pressures domestically. It has promised billions in subsidies to lure global carmakers such as Volkswagen AG and Stellantis NV to set up electric-vehicle battery production in the province of Ontario to supply North American assembly plants.

The Canadian car industry is also pushing it to put up barriers to Chinese electric vehicles to protect local jobs and wages, arguing Chinese products are cheaper due to weaker labour standards.

“For me, labour is a very important piece of the puzzle there and I think it is high time,” she said. “China is a centrally planned communist economy and China has an intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity.”

Trudeau’s government has fought a number of diplomatic and trade battles with China – its second largest trading partner after the US – most notably when Canada arrested Huawei Technologies executive Meng Wanzhou on a US extradition warrant. China retaliated by detaining two Canadian citizens for nearly three years.

Freeland, however, pulled no punches when talking about China on Friday. There’s a prevailing view that China’s entry to the World Trade Organization more than two decades ago was a mistake, she said.

“I see that Leninist precept in Chinese economic policy – of dominating the commanding heights of the global economy and of acting quite intentionally to undermine and cut out Western competitors,” she said. “I think it’s high time for us to be clear-eyed about that.”

China’s new ‘giant panda college’ to welcome first students in autumn

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3270097/chinas-new-giant-panda-college-welcome-first-students-autumn?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s only higher education institute to offer giant panda studies is set to enrol its first students this autumn, giving them the opportunity to observe the bears closely at nature reserves, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

The “giant panda college” is affiliated with China West Normal University in Sichuan, the southwestern province known for its panda reserves and habitats. The institute was established in September by the provincial forestry and grassland administration.

A total of 50 undergraduate students will study wildlife and nature reserve management at the Giant Panda Institute, which is expected to promote the “academic, professional and systematic development of giant panda conservation”, according to the CCTV report on Wednesday.

The students will gain hands-on experience at the institute and take part in work related to giant panda conservation, breeding and disease prevention in national nature reserves.

They are expected to become professionals in wildlife protection and research after four to seven years of study.

Wei Wei, an instructor at the Giant Panda Institute, told CCTV that the institution’s professors and instructors included 22 experts from the Institute of Zoology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the China Conservation and Research Centre for the Giant Panda.

China has put decades of effort into panda conservation. The total number of wild giant pandas in China has increased from about 1,100 in the 1980s to nearly 1,900 today. The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species has downgraded the giant panda from “endangered” to “vulnerable”.

Beijing frequently sends giant pandas overseas in a soft-power bid to improve ties and win the hearts of people in foreign countries – a practice known as “panda diplomacy”.

The bears are usually loaned to other countries for 10 years as envoys of goodwill and friendship and serve as barometers of relations between China and the host country.

Giant pandas Yun Chuan and Xin Bao arrived at the San Diego Zoo on June 27, making them the first pandas to travel to the United States from China in more than 20 years. They are on loan to the California zoo and are reportedly adjusting to their new home. They are not quite ready to meet visitors yet, zoo officials said this week.

Chinese internet users launched a social media campaign in February of last year calling for the return of Ya Ya, a female panda sent to the Memphis Zoo two decades ago, after she appeared to be thin and missing clumps of fur in photos. Ya Ya returned to China in April 2023 at the end of a 20-year loan agreement between the zoo and the Chinese Association of Zoological Gardens.

A bear named Fubao – the first giant panda born in South Korea – was the centre of another controversy when she was transferred to China in April. A South Korean fan club alleged Fubao was being mistreated in China, leading to feuds between social media users in the two countries.

Earlier this month, Beijing announced plans to give Hong Kong another pair of giant pandas to mark the 27th anniversary of the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty. Four other pandas have been sent to Hong Kong to celebrate the anniversary of the city’s handover. Two have since died, while two others named Ying Ying and Le Le, are at Ocean Park.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu expressed “deepest gratitude” for the gift from the central government, saying the move “fully demonstrates its care and support” for the city.

The two new pandas are expected to contribute to Hong Kong’s tourism earnings, and their names will be chosen through a competition.

Nato vs China: ‘blame-shifters’ take aim at a ‘decisive enabler’ on Russia’s war in Ukraine

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270358/nato-vs-china-blame-shifters-take-aim-decisive-enabler-russias-war-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed

Nato did not hold back on his criticism of China when the military bloc marked its 75th anniversary in Washington this week.

In what Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said was the “strongest message” the alliance had sent to China over its “contributions” to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Nato said China had become a “decisive enabler” of the conflict through its “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base.

“The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and [China] and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order, are a cause for profound concern,” the 32 members said in a joint statement.

It also said China posed systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security, particularly through “sustained malicious cyber and hybrid activities”.

“Authoritarian leaders” in China, Iran, and North Korea “all [support] Russia’s brutal war”, Stoltenberg told attendees at the formal celebrations on Tuesday.

And China’s alleged backing for Russia would “impact [its] interests”, he said.

That message was underscored by US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who warned the named adversaries that “we’re watching carefully … what impact that has on the security of the Indo-Pacific and other parts of the world”.

Among the watchers are Nato’s Indo-Pacific partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, each of whom must balance their security concerns with their strong trade ties with China. Australia, for example, has spent two years trying to repair relations with its largest trade partner, efforts that resulted in a visit by Chinese Premier Li Qiang last month.

Czech President Petr Pavel was just as emphatic, urging fellow members to support Washington “in their competition with China in all areas around the globe”.

China’s “geopolitical hand” could be strengthened by a Russian victory, leading to a “more assertive and aggressive” posture, Pavel said.

Amid the accusations, Beijing has maintained that it has not supplied weapons to Russia and has strictly controlled the export of dual-use equipment that could be repurposed for the conflict.

Before the celebrations got under way, China said Nato’s approach amounted to “vilification” and “blame-shifting”, and said its critics should “get rid of [their] cold war mentality and zero-sum approach”, “stop scaremongering on security and making imaginary enemies” and “stop forming exclusive clubs in the name of collective defence”.

“Nato’s so-called security is more often than not built on others’ insecurity, and what it does puts the world and regions at high security risk,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Tuesday.

“We urge Nato to form the right perception of China … and play a constructive role for global peace, stability and development,” Lin said.

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Could China’s ‘intelligent’ 6G experiment signal the way to next-generation technology?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3270354/could-chinas-intelligent-6g-experiment-signal-way-next-generation-technology?utm_source=rss_feed

A Chinese team has shown the potential for a new approach to boost existing 4G and 5G infrastructure to 6G, the next generation of communications technology, according to state media.

The team from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications said they achieved the goal through “intelligent integration” in an experimental network described by state news agency Xinhua as a world first.

The network also achieved a remarkable tenfold improvement in key communication metrics, including capacity, coverage and efficiency, the report quoted the team as saying.

Sixth-generation wireless technology, or 6G, is expected to revolutionise communication with data transmission speeds up to 50 times faster than 5G.

The International Telecommunication Union, an agency under the United Nations, says 6G could promote the growth of a range of advances, allowing communication to be immersive and connectivity universal.

But with existing communication technology reaching its theoretical bandwidth limit, there are a series of big problems that have to be overcome.

These include the difficulty of increasing capacity, the high cost of coverage, and high energy consumption.

The usual approach to overcoming these constraints is to stack more resources to increase the performance of a communication network. However, this also dramatically increases the complexity of the network.

Unveiling his team’s research at a conference in Beijing on Wednesday, university professor Zhang Ping said that to break new ground in the field, technology had to shift from “stacked innovation” to “disruptive innovation”.

In this case, the innovation was applying the emerging technology of “semantic communication”, an intelligent system that transmits meaning rather than just data. Researchers see potential for the technology to make transmission systems more efficient and cut the cost of information processing.

According to the Xinhua report, the experimental network by the Chinese team showed that semantic communication could achieve 6G transmission abilities on existing 4G infrastructure.

Zhang said the deep integration of communication and intelligence was “an important direction” in the evolution of communication technology.

Artificial intelligence would transform communication, and 6G would also promote the accelerated development of AI, he reportedly said at the conference organised by the China Institute of Communications.

“AI will improve the perception and semantic understanding of communication, while the ubiquitous communication of 6G will in turn extend the reach of artificial intelligence to all corners of all fields,” Zhang was quoted as saying.

“The integration of the two will accelerate the formation of new business forms of the digital economy.”

The race is on around the world to develop the next generation of communications technology.

China is working to commercialise 6G by around 2030, with 6G standards expected to be in place by next year.

In February, the United States and nine other nations set out a set of principles for 6G communication systems, including that they are developed with “trusted technology that is protective of national security”.

Japan plans to establish key technologies around 2025 and begin offering “beyond 5G” communication services by 2030, in partnership with companies like NTT Docomo and Sony.

Job hunting China graduate turns into walking advert in bid to land work

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/article/3270029/job-hunting-china-graduate-turns-walking-advert-bid-land-work?utm_source=rss_feed

A fresh graduate in China has turned himself into a walking advertisement by printing his resume on a T-shirt, delighting online observers.

Song Jiale, 21, recently earned a bachelor’s degree from Wuhan University’s School of Geomatics in Hubei province, central China.

Before starting his postgraduate studies, Song sought an internship but was unsuccessful despite numerous applications.

Taking inspiration from elderly locals in his hometown in Henan province in central China, who often walk around with advertising signs, Song came up with the idea of printing his resume on a T-shirt.

“With so many people on the streets, I am like a walking billboard, bound to be noticed by employers and HR professionals,” Song wrote on Xiaohongshu, China’s Instagram.

On its front, his T-shirt reads, “Class of 2024 looking for work, please see the back.”

On the back is a copy of his CV, which includes his name, university, major degree subject, student activities and internships.

He also cleverly placed a QR code over his photo for easy contact.

It says next to the QR code, “HR people who are impressed, and any fellow graduates looking to network, just scan this!”

“Finding a job is as hard as finding a partner, let’s help each other out,” the message adds.

Sporting his CV T-shirt, Song travelled by train from his hometown back to Hubei.

Although his eye-catching outfit did not land him a job immediately, it did spark a number of conversations with curious fellow passengers.

It also gained him viral attention on mainland social media after a passer-by posted his picture online, attracting about 385,000 views on Douyin.

The attention led to multiple companies reaching out to him.

In the end, Song found an internship with a company in the running apparel industry.

The viral post may have been a key factor in his acceptance.

“As soon as I got to the company for my job interview, a staff member raised her phone and asked: ‘Is this you?’” Song said on Xiaohongshu.

Online observers lauded Song as a talent in social media marketing.

“You should work in the social media field,” one person said.

“I wish he could join our company, don’t you see how good he is at creating viral content? He is a real talent,” said another.

China’s job market has become increasingly challenging.

This year, 11.58 million new university graduates entered the job market, 820,000 more than last year, and the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 soared above 18 per cent.

Guinea-Bissau and China announce strategic partnership during state visit

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270153/guinea-bissau-and-china-announce-strategic-partnership-during-state-visit?utm_source=rss_feed

Guinea-Bissau might not be economically important to China, but that does not mean the small West African nation is not on Beijing’s radar.

During a state visit to China this week, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo met Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the two leaders agreeing to strengthen cooperation on international and multilateral affairs as they officially formed a strategic partnership.

In a joint statement released on Wednesday detailing their talks, the two leaders noted: “All countries, big or small, are equal.”

Beijing has traditionally forged strong diplomatic ties with small nations such as Guinea-Bissau, as it develops these political allies – and secures their votes in international forums – to support China’s global ambitions.

Meanwhile, for Guinea-Bissau, China is extremely important, providing finance to build key projects ranging from presidential palaces to roads and stadiums.

Embalo called China his country’s “top priority direction and most important partner in diplomacy” during his visit, as he obtained multimillion-dollar deals from his Chinese counterpart.

Xi granted market access to agricultural products from Guinea-Bissau, such as cashew nuts, and agreed to explore local processing of the nuts. Increased imports of food products from Africa is part of Beijing’s plan to support the continent’s agricultural modernisation – a promise made during last August’s Brics summit in Johannesburg.

With a population of just over 2 million, Guinea-Bissau is one of the least developed African countries that China announced in 2022 would benefit from the waiver of tariffs on 98 per cent of taxable items originating from the country.

“China is willing to continue to provide technical support for Guinea-Bissau to enhance its agricultural production capacity,” the statement said.

Beijing will also fund some of the country’s infrastructure projects as the two heads of state agreed to upgrade the relationship between China and Guinea-Bissau to a strategic partnership – which means the country’s strategic value to China lies in economic and geopolitical perspectives.

China will expand cooperation in mining, infrastructure construction, ocean resources and other fields under its massive overseas investment plan, the Belt and Road Initiative.

Xi also said Chinese companies would be encouraged to invest and cooperate in Guinea-Bissau to help the African nation “better achieve national development”.

This will help it “transform its resource potential into development momentum”, according to a readout released after the talks held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

“China is willing to continue to provide support to Guinea-Bissau’s domestic construction to the best of its ability,” Xi said in the statement.

Beijing will continue to send rice technology experts and medical teams to help Guinea-Bissau ensure food security and develop public health. China has been providing doctors for the country’s hospital in Canchungo in the north of the country and the military hospital in the capital Bissau.

It will also provide government scholarships and training vacancies to help Bissau cultivate talent of all kinds needed for national development. Beijing traditionally provides thousands of scholarships annually to students to study in Chinese universities and welcomes government workers to attend short-term courses in China.

Guinea-Bissau is a key Chinese ally. Beijing’s presence can be seen across the country in the form of projects it has financed and built, such as the country’s government palace, the parliament, the justice building, the national stadium in Bissau and a new fishing port in Bandim.

On Monday, ahead of the state visit to China, Embalo announced China had already pledged to finance a “major conference centre” for Guinea-Bissau’s presidency of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). China will also reconstruct 300km (186 miles) of roads and build a new university campus for 12,000 students, Embalo said.

“Before we get there, China has already announced a donation of US$27.5 million to Guinea-Bissau, which will be earmarked for projects, independently of other projects we already have in the pipeline,” Embalo was quoted as saying by Lusa News Agency, Portugal’s largest media outlet.

Embalo, who will be in China until Saturday, is ruling the country by special decree after dissolving the opposition-dominated parliament in December 2023 following armed clashes that he described as an “attempted coup d’état”. A date for the upcoming parliamentary elections has not yet been set.

China is currently building the country’s only highway linking Osvaldo Vieira International Airport to the town of Safim, a distance of 8.2km (5 miles), with a cost of US$14.7 million.

A new fishing port in Bandim on the outskirts of Bissau was recently completed by China Railway Guangzhou Engineering Group Corporation (CRGEG) for US$26 million.

David Shinn, a China-Africa specialist and professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said from the standpoint of economic relations, Guinea-Bissau is not important to China but its vote in the UN General Assembly and certain specialised international agencies is equal to that of South Africa or Nigeria.

“As a result, China pays attention to small economies such as Guinea-Bissau,” Shinn said.

He said for its part, Guinea-Bissau sought export markets, foreign direct investment, loans and foreign aid from wherever it was available.

“Although China is a modest source, Guinea-Bissau may perceive that potentially it will become more important,” Shinn said.

Sub-Saharan geoeconomic analyst Aly-Khan Satchu said he could not imagine Guinea-Bissau’s president getting a state visit to the White House.

“It’s never going to happen. And therein lies an essential difference in China and US foreign relations,” Satchu said.

He said Xi’s flex in Africa was explained by this visit.

“I think China is seeking to position itself on the African Atlantic coast. Note Equatorial Guinea’s state visit,” Satchu said in reference to a state visit to China in May by Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.

For Guinea-Bissau, “China can be a game-changer”, he said.

“It’s a small economy and China can put in as little as US$1 billion to work and inflect the country’s fortunes,” Satchu said.

After talks, Xi and Embalo witnessed the signing of bilateral cooperation documents on the implementation of global development initiatives, economic development, customs inspection and quarantine, geology and mining.

Tanks for the memories: China youth let off steam with Russia war game holidays

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3270038/tanks-memories-china-youth-let-steam-russia-war-game-holidays?utm_source=rss_feed

Young people in China have found a new way to let off steam – travelling to Russia then donning traditional Chinese outfits to drive tanks and play with guns.

In July, a travel influencer known as Candy on Xiaohongshu posted videos of a trip with friends to a military camp in Moscow during winter.

The group was made up of people in their 20s, dressed in traditional and Qing dynasty ((1644–1911) princess costumes. Some wield rocket launchers while others handle AK-47 rifles.

Several other young women are seen driving tanks across different types of terrain, including trenches and even through snow.

Candy explained that the weapons they used only fired blank cartridges, but still produced flashes and explosions.

She said the reason for wearing traditional Chinese costumes was to blend Chinese aesthetics with Russian military, creating a cultural collision.

The videos quickly went viral, introducing more people to Russia’s military tourism.

Moscow has a number of military experience venues.

A one-day tour typically costs 10,888 yuan (US$1,500) per person. The price includes shooting and tank driving.

Each tourist is accompanied by a Russian military expert who provides instruction and ensures personal safety.

Russia reportedly started developing military tourism in 2016 when the world’s largest tank factory opened its production line to visitors.

The idea has evolved to include a wide range of experiences.

Online sources show that, besides riding tanks and using guns, tourists can also have field rations, and take courses in assembling and disassembling automatic rifles.

For thrill-seekers, there is the opportunity to fly in an L-39 jet trainer, with a skilled pilot performing aerobatic manoeuvres such as loops, rolls, and steep climbs for about 20 minutes. This costs 8,000 yuan (US$1,000) per person.

“After watching Candy’s video, I chose to go to Moscow this summer for my graduation trip. I just stayed there for three days, but the military experience was really fun. When I launched the shells, I shouted loudly, releasing all my unhappiness,” said Yuan, 22, who went to Russia in June.

The trend sparked a heated discussion on mainland social media.

“This is so meaningful for military enthusiasts. I’m planning to go to Russia,” one person said on Xiaohongshu.

“Firing away all the stresses from life and work like bullets. This is something I’ve always wanted to do,” agreed another.

One held a different view: “Weapons are cold and cruel. I think the military may not be suitable as entertainment. There are many other ways to relax.”

Finland’s once-brisk China ties rattled as Russia sanctions fracture travel, trade links

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3270262/finlands-once-brisk-china-ties-rattled-russia-sanctions-fracture-travel-trade-links?utm_source=rss_feed

Finland, once a major transport hub linking China and Europe, has lost much of its allure since severing transit links with Russia over the Ukraine war, the country’s consul general said – an issue compounded by a lack of visa-free access to China for Finns that much of the continent’s population now enjoys.

Before the war, Finland had a unique position among European countries as its flights could zip over Russia to China in 9 hours on certain routes, Consul General Timo Kantola told the Post. This made it a natural choice for tourism and business travel, as flights from China to other parts of northern Europe would often take longer or require transfers.

Flag carrier Finnair’s direct flights to China have fallen in number since the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified in 2022 and Finland joined the European Union’s united front against Moscow, Kantola said. The airline had to divert away from Russian airspace to comply with sanctions, charting new flight paths over Turkey that add about three hours to each leg of China trips, he said.

“It’s clear that closing Russian airspace has been a big change for Finnair, and the airline has had to adapt,” he said.

The central Chinese city of Zhengzhou and Helsinki established four weekly direct flights in 2020, but an older Helsinki-Shanghai route has lost 9 per cent of its scheduled flights since 2019. Routes from Helsinki to six other Chinese cities have stopped, according to data from the Cirium consultancy.

“The advantage of Helsinki was its geographic position and speedy routings through Russian airspace that attracted large volumes of travellers from northern Europe,” said John Grant, a senior analyst with British aviation data firm OAG. Finnair, he said, has “seen a huge fall in demand” due to the resultant extensions of flight times and airfare increases.

At the same time, Finland has not been added to the growing list of countries whose nationals qualify for 15-day visa-free stays in China. That cohort now includes 11 European countries since the first batch of members was announced nine months ago, and Chinese statistics show arrivals from those places have surged this year.

The number of Chinese tourists to Finland, meanwhile, toppled from a late-2019 peak of more than 40,000 per month to last year’s monthly apex of around 12,000, according to the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies.

Finland’s stoppage of train service to or from Russia has “in practice cut off the railway connection from China to Finland”, Kantola added. He said that in the years before the Ukraine war, railway cargo transport “was growing fast”.

Trains from Finland had previously crossed the 1,340km (832-mile) Finland-Russia land border to St. Petersburg, where passengers could travel onwards to China.

“Finland opposes Russia’s actions in Ukraine, consistent with the EU’s common position, hence its avoidance of Russian airspace and decisions to prevent tourism from Russia,” Kantola said.

Overall trade between China and Finland fell to US$2.6 billion in the first five months of this year from US$3.3 billion for the same period in 2023, according to Chinese customs data. China is Finland’s fifth-biggest export market.

In another move affecting China, Finland and Estonia shelved plans this year for an 80km railway tunnel from the Estonian capital Tallinn to Helsinki, Kantola said.

China had expressed interest in the project as a possible addition to its 11-year-old Belt and Road Initiative – a long-term effort to smoothen Eurasian trade links – but Finnish officials fretted about the costs. The tunnel would link Finland to parts of Eastern Europe where China has already improved railway systems.

“I don’t think this project is moving, for various reasons,” Kantola said. “In Finland there were hesitations about the idea from the beginning, related to expected high construction costs and low expected returns on investment.”

But China is still making a splash in Finland with sales of low-priced electric vehicles (EVs), Kantola said.

As far as overseas investment, Kantola said, Chinese firms have expressed interest in two Finland-based plants to produce lithium EV batteries.

China-based CNGR Advanced Metals is backing one project, which would operate on the coast of the Gulf of Finland. Though that proposal has sparked domestic concerns about water pollution, he said, those worries are not directed at China, adding officials and citizens from Finland are “open” to Chinese participation in the two plants.

Trouble brews for China coffee chain after jobseeker rejected for being ‘timid, weak’

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3270015/trouble-brews-china-coffee-chain-after-jobseeker-rejected-being-timid-weak?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s leading coffee chain has come under fire for its recruitment policies after a woman claimed she was rejected for “being timid and weak with no experience”.

At the beginning of July, the woman posted on a social media platform that she had applied to work at a branch of Luckin Coffee in Fujian province, southeastern China, the news outlet My Drivers reported.

She was interviewed by a member of human resources staff before meeting the shop’s manager.

The woman was later informed that she had not passed the interview, the report said.

“I am speechless. Why is Luckin so picky?” the woman, who was not identified, asked in her post.

“I told them I am willing to work for a long time and I accept their working hours. I was also proactive during the interview.

“But they think I am not qualified for the job. They said I am too timid, too weak, with zero experience. I am wondering why they made those comments,” she added.

After her post received feedback from the public, she said staff at the coffee shop persistently called her, requesting she delete what she had written on the internet.

She claimed they also phoned her family when she refused to answer their calls.

A customer service hotline worker at the company told the media that the branch is responsible for providing interview details.

It is not clear which branch she posted the allegations about.

Luckin declined to comment on July 10 when approached by the Post.

The controversy received an immediate and huge response on mainland social media.

“How brave does one need to be to make coffee?” one online observer asked.

“Are you choosing a concubine?” another person quipped.

“It’s fine that you do not like this candidate. But it’s not necessary to make such rude comments about her,” said a third.

Not long ago, the company found itself in hot water for alleged age discrimination while hiring.

A shop manager in the southern province of Guangdong told a 26-year-old job applicant that she was not suitable for the job because she was too old.

“We need young and dynamic people. I am afraid there will be a generation gap between you and our customers,” the manager said, according to a viral video.

The quirky and sometimes unacceptable recruitment requirements of companies often make headlines in China.

In 2020, the mainland drinks giant Coconut Palm Group said applicants for its trainee management positions must promise to work there for their entire lives, and even agree to mortgage their homes with the company.

The local authority intervened after the demand was exposed by the media.

China and Russia hold drills as Japan and Nato raise alarms over Ukraine

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3270343/china-and-russia-hold-drills-japan-and-nato-raise-alarms-over-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed

China has announced joint military drills with Russia along its southern coast amid watchful comments from Tokyo on regional tensions and a Ukraine-focused Nato summit, where leaders labelled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of the two-year war.

China’s Defence Ministry said on Friday the “Joint Sea-2024” exercises began in early July in the waters and airspace around Zhanjiang in the southern Guangdong province and would last until the middle of the month.

“The joint exercise aims to demonstrate the resolve and capabilities of the two sides in jointly addressing maritime security threats and preserving global and regional peace and stability”, the ministry said on Friday, adding that it would “further deepen the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for the new era”.

The drills are the first the two countries have held in Zhanjiang, a prefecture-level city on a South China Sea inlet, since the Ukraine war began in February 2022.

The news came a day after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hit out at leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for making “groundless accusations” against China, warning the military alliance to avoid “inciting confrontation” with his country over “different political systems and values”.

The 32 Nato members, while meeting in Washington earlier this week, called on Beijing to “cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort”.

The Chinese embassy in Washington responded, saying that Beijing had not provided weapons and had strictly controlled the export of dual-use articles – a move it said had been internationally applauded.

Meanwhile, in its annual defence white paper, published on Friday, Japan cautioned against a spillover of the Ukraine war into the Indo-Pacific region, “particularly in East Asia”. Observers said it was referring to the dangers of Beijing’s strained relations with Taipei, which has seen air and sea exercises escalate.

“Because of that increase in military activity, we cannot discount the possibility of heightened tensions,” the document stated.

A close neighbour of Taiwan, Japan hosts more than 50,000 American troops, hundreds of US military aircraft, and an aircraft carrier strike group.

Tokyo also labelled China’s military ambitions the “greatest strategic challenge” to the world and identified Russia and North Korea as concerns.

The Chinese ministry also shared on Friday that the People’s Armed Police Force – the country’s paramilitary organisation – and Vietnam’s Mobile Police Force will hold a joint anti-terrorism training, named “Cooperation-2024”, in Nanning in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region from late July to early August.

“This joint training aims to focus on combating terrorist activities and is expected to facilitate the exchange between the two countries on counterterrorism combat and training experience, and foster mutual understanding and trust,” said Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defence.

Bilateral ties between China and Vietnam have experienced hiccups over each other’s actions in the disputed South China Sea, such as in May when Hanoi protested against a Chinese navy hospital ship being sent to the Paracel Islands. The contested islands are known as the Xisha Islands in Chinese and the Hoang Sa Islands in Vietnam.

But that aside, the neighbours have managed largely friendly relations, with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently lauding China as an inspiration for other countries, saying that his country was “pleased to witness China’s strong development and rise”.

“China is among few countries that increasingly takes on the leadership role in addressing regional and global challenges, promoting various cooperation initiatives … and occupying a pivotal position in global production and supply chains,” he said at the 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions in late June.

China critics pan AI ‘rejuvenation’ of Jackie Chan in new film ‘A Legend’

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/china-personalities/article/3270226/china-critics-pan-ai-rejuvenation-jackie-chan-new-film-legend?utm_source=rss_feed

Jackie Chan’s new movie has become mired in controversy for using artificial intelligence face-swapping technology to make the ageing action film icon appear younger.

The use of AI has also prompted concerns about the potential overuse of stunt doubles.

A Legend, which has been touted as a sequel to the 2005 film The Myth, stars Chan and Zhang Yixing. The film premiered in China on July 10.

It tells the story of an archaeology professor, played by Chan, who discovers mysterious antiques which transport him back to the Western Han dynasty (206 BC- 9), where he battles to protect his country and embarks on a romantic journey.

A major selling point and significant technological leap in the film is the use of AI technology to digitally alter Chan’s face, presenting him as the 27-year-old version of himself.

The film’s director, Stanley Tong Kwai-lai hailed the technological advancements.

“AI technology has broken the limitations of traditional special effects, bringing infinite possibilities to filmmaking, it allows actors to relive their youthful days.”

Yu Dong, the film’s producer and CEO of Bona Film Group said the use of AI makes the story more realistic and engaging.

“It is the perfect combination of technology and cinema,” said Yu.

The producer also claimed that A Legend would be the best Jackie Chan film in a decade.

Chan, 70, is a globally recognised Chinese movie icon and a martial arts master. He has a string of accolades, including an honorary Oscar which he won in 2016, under his belt.

However, his recent films have not been met with critical acclaim and recent photos on social media have led some to comment on his age.

The attempt at rejuvenation using AI technology in A Legend has similarly failed to impress.

Some online observers said that the “rejuvenated” Chan looked more like his son, Jaycee Fong Jo-ming, than his younger self.

Many say the technology makes Chan appear unnatural and unable to properly convey emotions, sometimes inadvertently turning serious scenes into comedy.

“Sorry, but this AI is too distracting. When Zhang Yixing dies in the ancient setting, Jackie Chan with the AI face looks like he is smirking. It made the entire movie theatre laugh,” said one commenter.

The film’s heavy reliance on AI has also raised suspicions about the overuse of stunt doubles.

Some people defended Chan by sharing behind-the-scenes footage of him wearing armour and riding a horse, demonstrating his active participation in the movie.

Others, however, provided images of doubles used for distant shots as evidence of his “laziness”.

“An elderly actor using a stunt double for dangerous scenes is acceptable, but if audiences buy tickets expecting to see the 70-year-old Jackie Chan performing stunts, only to be presented with a double with a digitally altered young face, they will feel cheated,” said one critic.

The film’s Chinese distributor declined to comment on the controversy when approached by the Post.

Meanwhile, the production continues to face criticism.

“Not only is there an AI Jackie Chan, but also a plastic surgery-enhanced Zhang Yixing. With the female character choosing Chan over Zhang in the romantic love line the film really illustrates that AI is replacing humans,” said one critic.

While another added: “This is a failed AI movie experiment and proves that AI cannot replace real acting. It lacks any sense of vitality.”

How much does Japan need Chinese imports? And which appliance trade surprisingly sizzles?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3270308/how-much-does-japan-need-chinese-imports-and-which-appliance-trade-surprisingly-sizzles?utm_source=rss_feed

Japan has been relying more on China’s supply chain than the US’, according to a recent trade breakdown by Tokyo that reflects how Japan has not sought to decouple from China, but rather “insulate” itself in certain areas.

Among imported products that Japan relies heavily on, more than two-thirds came from China in 2022 while only an eighth came from the United States, according to a newly released white paper from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

The detailed findings, unveiled on Tuesday, assessed trade data on around 4,300 items imported that year by Japan, the US, Germany and the Group of 7 overall.

Japan depends far more heavily on single countries – often China – for imports of many more types of consumer and industrial products than do Tokyo’s Group of Seven peers, according to the white paper.

The report applied the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration in which a reading above 50 for a given product means that one specific country accounts for more than half of its imports.

Overall, Japan relied heavily on imports for nearly 47 per cent of its 4,300 products surveyed. In particular, Japan imported more than half from China in 1,406 specific items, representing almost 70 per cent of 2,015 items that Japan sourced heavily from overseas in 2022.

In contrast, the US accounted for only 12.5 per cent of the imports on which Japan strongly relied.

And today, that type of trade scenario still persists, explained Stephen Nagy, director of policy studies for the Yokosuka Council of Asia-Pacific Studies in Tokyo.

China-Japan economic ties remain “highly complementary”, he said, adding that Japan’s reliance on Chinese goods is expected to continue.

“Both countries are in a situation where they need each other, and I don’t see a push toward decoupling,” Nagy said, adding that a weak yen makes Japan all the more attractive to Chinese exporters.

Japan does not advocate decoupling the way Western countries have done, but the Japanese aim to “insulate the sensitive parts of their relationship” from China, Nagy noted. However, Japan will limit Chinese access to chips and dual-use technology used for both civilian and military purposes, Nagy said.

In 2022, Tokyo passed the Economic Security Promotion Act to develop more resilient supply chains while promoting infrastructure security and the use of critical technologies.

Additionally, Japan has expanded fiscal support to companies to incentivise the reshoring and diversification of business operations from China, especially in strategically crucial industries such as semiconductors.

However, Japan, China and South Korea agreed to resume negotiations on a trilateral free-trade agreement at a summit in May 2024.

Rumi Aoyama, director of the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies at Waseda University, said the agreement was a “clear signal” from the leaders of the three major powers in the region that economic relations are vital and must continue.

“In a region where the trend towards economic integration is continuing, political leaders show a strong intention to stabilise economic relations, and economic-security policy does not aim at full decoupling,” Aoyama said in a blog post on June 27 on the Australia-based East Asia Forum that focuses on analyses of Asian economics and public policies.

As the second-largest exporting country of China, Japan’s exports fell to US$157.49 billion in 2023 from 2022’s US$171.98 billion, according to Chinese customs data.

Last year, Japan was China’s top buyer of air conditioners and rare earth minerals, the second-largest importer of Chinese smartphones, and the fourth-biggest importing country of Chinese laptops and organic chemicals, according to customs data.

In the category for “portable equipment under 10kg”, which largely includes laptops, the value of China’s exports to Japan fell last year by 0.5 per cent to US$4.22 billion from US$4.67 billion in 2022, the data showed.

China exported more than 40 per cent of its rare earths to Japan last year, by value, and the value of exports to Japan plunged by 24.66 per cent to US$218.66 million in 2023 from US$209.2 million in 2022.

Nearly 13 per cent of China’s air conditioners were sold to Japan last year, and their export value accounted for 12.75 per cent of China’s total air conditioner exports.

Additional reporting by Ralph Jennings

China looms large as Philippines-Japan defence pact heads for Senate showdown

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3270293/china-looms-large-philippines-japan-defence-pact-heads-senate-showdown?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines is poised to approve a landmark defence pact with Japan, but the timing remains uncertain as Tokyo lobbies for swift passage and Manila’s Senate vows to meticulously scrutinise the deal.

On July 8, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), enabling the two nations to jointly train troops and provide mutual aid during natural disasters. However, the full text of the RAA remains shrouded in secrecy, known only to the presidential palace and the agreement’s signatories.

That veil of confidentiality is unlikely to lift until the Philippine Senate formally reviews the pact on July 22 when it reconvenes. Historically, the upper house has been slow to approve foreign treaties, and the influential head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Imee Marcos – the president’s own sister – has vowed to scrutinise “every word” of the document in the “national interest”.

But her interpretation of that interest could clash with President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s push for a swift approval.

Senator Marcos has openly questioned the strategic merits of her brother’s decision last year to grant the US military expanded access to Philippine bases, arguing that it does not serve the country’s interests. She has challenged the locations of these new sites facing Taiwan, bluntly asking at the time: “What’s our fight with Taiwan?”

Just a week before the Manila-Tokyo pact was signed, Marcos stoked further alarm on social media, claiming she had seen evidence of a Chinese “hypersonic missile” plan targeting 25 sites in the Philippines – an assertion promptly denied by Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The senator insinuated that the increased US military presence would only provoke China’s wrath.

While she has yet to directly criticise the new defence agreement with Japan, she has made clear the Senate Foreign Relations Committee she chairs will subject “every line and every word” of the treaty to intense scrutiny to ensure it aligns with the national interest. However, she has also said the Philippines should welcome “stronger security ties with our neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Under Senate rules, the pact must be referred to the committee, undergo three readings and secure approval through a two-thirds vote – or at least 16 senators. With elections looming in May next year, lawmakers have only until early February to ratify the treaty if Japanese forces are to participate in the annual Balikatan military exercises scheduled for next year.

The Senate has a reputation for glacial progress on such international agreements: the Philippines-Australia visiting forces pact, for instance, languished for two years before its final ratification in 2012. And this new Manila-Tokyo defence deal is poised to face the most rigorous scrutiny of any treaty in recent memory.

Further complicating matters, six other international agreements remain pending in the Senate, placing additional demands on lawmakers’ limited bandwidth.

But with polls less than a year away, Senator Marcos – who is up for re-election herself – may ultimately need to weigh the political calculations of approving the treaty against the objections she has already raised.

Recent private surveys indicate most Filipino voters favour expanded regional military cooperation.

The Japanese government is not leaving anything to chance, however – proactively engaging with Philippine lawmakers to facilitate the treaty’s passage.

Just a day after the RAA’s signing, Kamikawa paid a “courtesy call” to Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero.

According to the Japanese embassy’s account of the visit, Kamikawa “expressed her desire to further strengthen security and maritime cooperation, including through the RAA” as well as cooperation in economic security, infrastructure development, and cultural exchange.

In response, Escudero assured Kamikawa that he would “make every effort to ensure … the early ratification of the RAA by the Senate”, the embassy’s press release said.

He later told reporters the agreement would help “strengthen and firm up our position on the issue with China on the West Philippine Sea” – the Philippines’ name for areas of the South China Sea it claims. Escudero also acknowledged that many of his fellow senators support the RAA.

However, the Senate president was quick to temper expectations, emphasising that the chamber would still “scrutinise it like other treaties” before considering granting its approval.

Antonio Carpio, a retired Supreme Court associate justice, believes that Senator Marcos will ultimately not oppose the agreement.

If she were to stall the process, he said other senators could convene as a “committee of the whole” to hasten the ratification – a method used during the Covid-19 pandemic to expedite legislative business.

Adding to the growing momentum, the Senate’s No 2 official Jinggoy Ejercito Estrada has stated that the RAA’s ratification will be “among the priority agenda” when the chamber reconvenes for its third regular session later this month.

Estrada’s half-brother, Senator Joseph Victor Ejercito, as well as Senators Nancy Binay, Grace Poe, and Juan Miguel Zubiri, have all issued similar statements backing the agreement.

Binay, in particular, emphasised the RAA’s importance, saying she fully supports its ratification as it would “represent our commitment to peace and security in the region.”

“The RAA’s value to national security underscores how increased maritime security cooperation safeguards Philippine economic interests,” she said.

Even senators allied with former President Rodrigo Duterte, such as Christopher “Bong” Go and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, have indicated they would vote in favour of the RAA, with Go telling Philippine Star newspaper that if the agreement is “good for the people, we will support it”.

The Japanese government appears to have laid the groundwork for this broad-based support through its strategic engagement. Last year, then-Senate President Zubiri led a delegation of 11 senators, including Imee Marcos, on an “official parliamentary visit” to Tokyo, where they met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

This visit came shortly after President Marcos’ own state visit to Japan and the Senate’s approval of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, which includes both China and Japan.

A similarly close military alliance with Japan is unlikely to be replicated elsewhere in Southeast Asia, according to a Malaysian expert, as not all Asean member states share the same level of threat assessment in regards to China.

“The kind of pact that is being signed between the Philippines and Japan is unlikely to be replicated across the region,” Ngeow Chow Bing, associate professor and director of the University of Malaya’s Institute of China Studies, told This Week in Asia on Wednesday.

“Japan and the Philippines share a heightened sense of threat [from China], but not all countries have the same level of assessment, and this kind of defence pact will be seen as unnecessary for these countries.”

However, Ngeow acknowledged that the pact could still have broader regional implications.

“Japan could certainly augment the US military power in the region, and given its proximity, it could play a robust role in providing constant surveillance and collecting intelligence,” he said.

Another expert, John Bradford of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Maritime Security Programme, explained the underlying factors that made both Tokyo and Manila receptive to forging a defence pact.

“In both Japan and the Philippines, a strong political consensus has emerged where Chinese power is seen as a direct threat to national security,” he wrote in a commentary last month for the RSIS’ Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.

“In both cases, this consensus only developed after deep debates and the observed failure of policies designed to accommodate Chinese power and avoid confrontation.”

Bradford noted that the Philippines and Japan, along with Taiwan, are part of what is known in US defence circles as the “first island chain”, a string of land features that prevents easy access from the Asian mainland into the open Pacific – a geostrategic reality that China now seems intent on controlling.

As crises hit plagued Niger-Benin oil pipeline, it may be up to China to end the deadlock

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270060/crises-hit-plagued-niger-benin-oil-pipeline-it-may-be-china-end-deadlock?utm_source=rss_feed

With the taps turned off on a Chinese-funded oil pipeline from Niger to Benin, China has found itself in the middle of negotiations to solve the internal crises that are plaguing relations between the two West African nations.

China pumped billions of dollars into the building of the 2,000km (1,243-mile) Niger-Benin oil pipeline, running from the Agadem oilfield to Benin’s Atlantic coast. China was betting on the export of the oil to recoup that money – as well as a US$400 million loan that China advanced to Niger in April that was to be repaid through oil shipments.

But the expectations of 90,000 barrels of crude oil gushing through the pipeline every day were quickly scuppered when Benin blocked the loading of oil into ships in early May over a border dispute with Niger.

China has been leading negotiations under the Benin-Niger inter-state steering committee, with Chinese diplomats and officials from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) meeting government officials in the two West African countries in a bid to resolve the dispute.

Now two former Beninese presidents have also joined the mediation, something which observers have said China will support as it tries to remedy the situation currently threatening its oil investments.

The former leaders, Thomas Boni Yayi and Nicephore Soglo, joined the talks in late June when they visited Niger capital Niamey and had a three-hour meeting with General Abdourahamane Tiani, president of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), the military junta that took power in July last year after leading a coup.

Any path that leads to a resolution of the current stalemate would be welcomed by China, according to Seidik Abba, president of the International Centre for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel (CIRES).

“Niger and Benin need each other. And China has a big interest in such an agreement between Niger and Benin,” Abba said.

China is playing a key role in the negotiations, according to Abba. In fact, the only time there has been a temporary reprieve to the oil block was in May, when China intervened and held talks with Beninese President Patrice Talon, who temporarily allowed the export of a million barrels of oil from Benin’s Seme-Kpodji port to Marseille, France.

“This was facilitated by China, which served as a go-between, convincing Benin to allow the export of oil via its port,” Abba said.

“China … has tried to convince Niger and Benin to reach an agreement because China has huge interests in both countries.”

He added that the stakes for all parties are high. “If Benin and Niger lose money, China will too.”

Chinese oil giant CNPC has invested US$4.6 billion in Niger’s petroleum industry, and its subsidiary PetroChina owns two-thirds of the country’s Agadem oilfield. It also bankrolled and built the Niger-Benin pipeline to move oil from Agadem to Benin’s Atlantic Seme-Kpodji port.

Niger currently has a domestic refining capacity of 20,000 barrels per day for local use while the pipeline was to export 90,000 barrels daily – which would have gone a long way to helping rebuild its economy after it took a hit following last July’s military coup.

It was this coup, which toppled then-president Mohamed Bazoum and saw Tiani seize power, that led to the troubles between Benin and Niger.

As a result of the coup, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) imposed sanctions on Niger. Benin and some other West African countries also closed their borders with Niger.

Under the leadership of the military junta, Niger then cut military ties with France and the US, forcing troops from the two countries to leave. This restricted any financing options open to Niger from Western countries, as the African nation instead strengthened its ties with Russia and China.

In February, Ecowas lifted the sanctions, and Benin reopened its border with Niger on March 1. But the military junta in Niger refused to reopen its side of the border, accusing the Benin government of hosting French troops which they said posed a threat to Niger after the country cut military ties with France.

But that is not the end of Niger’s problems. The oil-rich, landlocked country is also facing internal security challenges caused by rebel group Patriotic Liberation Front. Last month, it claimed responsibility for damaging part of the pipeline – and threatened further attacks unless Niger cancels its US$400 million deal with China.

Tensions between Niger and Benin also escalated recently when Benin sentenced three Nigeriens to 18 months in prison for allegedly gaining unauthorised entry into the port of Seme.

Niger said the three were employees of CNPC subsidiary WAPCO, who had gone to Benin to oversee the loading of oil.

Outraged, Niger turned off the taps to its pipeline and warned that it was considering re-routing its oil exports through Chad.

It is a move that analysts said would be impossible to implement since China is unlikely to pump more money into a new pipeline.

A route through its eastern neighbour had been one of the early ideas for the pipeline, with Niger planning to run it through Chad, to then join up with the Chad-Cameroon pipeline, which runs to the port of Kribi. Another option had been to run the pipeline to Nigeria’s coast.

“If you want to build a new pipeline, you have to get investment. I am not sure China is ready to build this kind of project [through Chad]. If you look at the pipeline between Agadem and Seme, it was built with mostly investment from China while Niger only made a small investment,” Abba said.

Plus, China has not yet recouped its investment from the Benin pipeline.

“I am not sure that China will build another pipeline before recouping its investment from the other.”

The only solution, Abba said, is for Niger and Benin to agree to reopen the oil route to Seme – the only option that has China’s support.

Such an agreement could take many months to reach, according to Francesco Sassi, a research fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at consultancy Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche (RIE). He said the arrest of the Nigerien nationals working for China’s CNPC would also complicate matters.

“While I consider it very unlikely that Chinese investments would just flow to an alternative, very risky pipeline project, such as the one transiting through Chad and Cameroon, the event highlights the problematic configuration of China’s energy diplomacy in Africa,” Sassi said.

Disputes between producer and transit countries could interfere with both the economic and financial objectives of Beijing in the region, he said, but they could also hinder the political goals China wants to achieve in Africa.

“To solve the dispute and recover the oil investments in Niger, Beijing will need to showcase its ability to navigate through the troubled waters of West African politics, raising the stakes for China’s involvement in African politics,” Sassi said.

The obvious solution is an understanding between Niger and Benin to resolve their differences and resume operation of the pipeline for the benefit of both countries and China, according to David Shinn, a China-Africa specialist and professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.

But, Shinn said, such an agreement would not end attempts to sabotage the pipeline by supporters of deposed Nigerien president Bazoum, who remains under house arrest by Niger’s military government.

“China needs to devote its energy to resolving the issues between Niger and Benin and then help find a solution to end rebel attacks on the pipeline,” Shinn said.

Meanwhile, the building of another pipeline through Chad and Cameroon is probably not realistic, he said.

“It would be expensive, take many months to build, and be subject to attacks by Boko Haram where it passes through parts of Chad. Who would be willing to finance such a risky venture?” Shinn said.

“Looking to the future, China should be more selective where it invests, although the Niger-Benin conflict was not predictable.”

Mark Bohlund, a senior credit research analyst at REDD Intelligence, said the likelihood is very low that China will be prepared to finance any link with the Chad-Cameroon pipeline.

“It is already heavily invested in the Benin pipeline,” Bohlund said.

Tormented China husband tracks wife with drone, discovers tryst with boss in remote hut

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3269748/tormented-china-husband-tracks-wife-drone-discovers-tryst-boss-remote-hut?utm_source=rss_feed

A suspicious husband in China who used a drone to discover that his wife was having a secret affair has trended on mainland social media.

The 33-year-old, surnamed Jing, embarked on the hi-tech surveillance mission after his wife became “cold” towards him last year.

Sometimes she intentionally ignored him, said Jing who lives in Shiyan in central Hubei province, the news outlet Net Ease reported.

A number of unusual events in his wife’s life, such as changes in her position at work and the number of times she said she was going to visit her parents, heightened Jing’s concerns.

Tormented with suspicion, Jing decided to employ a drone to track his wife’s movements.

The surveillance footage revealed that the wife, surnamed Wu, got into a car which took her to a remote mountain.

There, she was seen walking hand in hand with another man and disappearing into a dilapidated mud house.

Twenty minutes later, they walked out of the building and drove to the factory where Wu works.

Jing says the evidence he gathered from the drone will be used to secure a divorce.

“Her other man is her boss. The wife of the boss also works in the same factory so it is inconvenient for them to have an affair there, so my wife was forced to meet him in the wild,” Jing was quoted as saying.

The disloyal wife’s lies being exposed by a drone has sparked much interest on mainland social media.

“It was a good idea to buy a drone. Without this tool, Jing would have never known he was being betrayed. That’s the magical function of technology,” one person quipped on Weibo.

Another online observer said: “In this era of hi-tech, any lie will be debunked. So couples should stick to the principle of loyalty.”

Unusual cases involving the use of drones generate a lot of interest online in China.

In April 2022 when Shanghai was put under a strict Covid-19 lockdown, a man sent drone deliveries with daily essentials like fish and vegetables to his neighbour who lived in a high-rise building.

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China bans clinical research in germline genome editing as ‘irresponsible’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3270285/china-bans-clinical-research-germline-genome-editing-irresponsible?utm_source=rss_feed

All clinical research involving germline genome editing has been banned by China under a newly released ethics guideline.

Germline gene engineering relates to altering the DNA in sperm, eggs or early embryos to introduce changes that can be inherited.

“Any clinical research involving germline genome editing is irresponsible and not permitted,” according to the Ethical Guideline for Human Genome Editing Research, released earlier this week by China’s science and technology ministry.

The guideline marks the latest effort from China to tighten ethics reviews and regulations after bioscientist He Jiankui shocked the world in 2018 with the announcement that he had created twin gene-edited babies to make them less vulnerable to HIV/Aids.

“Only when benefits, risks and alternative options are fully understood and weighed, when issues of safety and efficacy are addressed, broad social consensus is reached and rigorous evaluation is conducted, could clinical research be considered with strict supervision in place,” the guideline adds.

It also strictly prohibits the use of genome editing research on germ cells, fertilised eggs, or human embryos for reproductive purposes.

“The potential detrimental impacts and risks of germline genome editing are still unpredictable,” Zhai Xiaomei, a member of the National Science and Technology Ethics Committee, was quoted as saying by the Science and Technology Daily.

Though it is necessary to carry out basic and preclinical research to understand human embryonic development and relevant diseases, ethics mattered as well, Zhai said.

Even if gene editing is performed on early human embryos or germ cells, the modified cells are banned from being used for reproduction, according to Zhai.

He’s case, involving the world’s first gene-edited babies, triggered huge criticism in China and beyond. He was released from prison in April 2022 after serving a three-year sentence for illegal medical practices.

The incident pushed China to tighten regulations relating to genome editing research, and set up the national ethics committee for science and technology in 2019.

In 2022, the committee issued the country’s first comprehensive guideline on boosting ethical governance in science and technology, including risk monitoring and punishment of violations.

China has since also issued a national regulation for ethics reviews of life sciences and medical research involving humans.

Britain, Canada, Australia, several Western European countries and South Korea have laws banning research into human genome editing technology for reproductive purposes.

The United States does not ban such research but prohibits researchers from using federal funds for related experiments.

“Human genome editing research involves changes to human genetic material and risks are difficult to predict. It not only matters to the dignity and well-being of individual humans but may also trigger a series of ethical, legal, and social issues and lead to a significant and far-reaching impact on human society,” the guideline says.

It also calls for extra attention to be paid to risks of accidental changes in germ cells during clinical research involving genome editing of somatic cells – that is, any cell of a body except reproductive cells. It is also necessary to evaluate the risks of heritable mutation, the guideline adds.

Joe Biden’s age in perspective – at 81, China’s oldest imperial ruler gave up the throne

https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/family-relationships/article/3270103/joe-bidens-age-perspective-81-chinas-oldest-imperial-ruler-gave-throne?utm_source=rss_feed

The debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, televised live on June 27, was hard to watch but, like the car crash that it was, you just could not look away.

It was the first of two scheduled debates between the two presumptive nominees for the United States presidential election, to be held in November 2024.

Presidential debates have had a long tradition in the US, dating back to the mid-19th century, long before the advent of radio and television, but are they the best way for voters to gauge a candidate’s suitability for presidential office?

A debate that is conducted within a short, limited period of time precludes considered deliberation of policy issues, which are necessarily complex and multifaceted. Instead, participants often trade in sound bites and barbs (of which there were plenty on June 27), hoping to impress voters with their ability to think on their feet and their eloquence (both of which were in short supply).

However, viewers and commentators were not so much concerned with the debate’s lack of substance as they were with Biden’s apparent dotage.

At 81 and 78 respectively, both Biden and Trump are long in the tooth, but Biden’s somnolent performance in the debate, subsequently blamed on a cold or jet lag, raised the question of whether he is too old for the job.

There have been calls for Biden to step aside to allow another candidate from the Democratic Party to contest the election.

Despite their desire for longevity, expressed in all manner of felicitous decorations and declarations, the majority of Chinese monarchs were not long-lived. Call it an occupational hazard, but fewer than 10 of the hundreds of rulers in China’s past lived beyond the age of 75.

The oldest person to ascend the imperial throne was in fact a woman. Empress Wu Zetian, China’s sole empress regnant, formally assumed the imperial title at the age of 67 during the Tang dynasty.

Although she had already been the de facto ruler for three decades, first as empress to her indisposed husband Emperor Gaozong, and then as empress dowager to her two sons, Emperors Zhongzong and Ruizong (both of whom she deposed), she dropped all pretences in the year 690, and proclaimed herself “emperor” (huangdi) of a new dynasty.

Empress Wu’s 30-year de facto rule (660–690) and subsequent 15-year reign (690–705) as “female emperor” have, on the whole, been given a positive assessment by historians past and present.

They praised good aspects of her governance, such as her recruitment of officials with real talent instead of those with prominent family backgrounds, her implementation of sound policies that resulted in economic stability and development, and her promotion of education among the people.

She had her detractors, however, who criticised her capricious nature and censured her for her supposed impropriety in having a few male consorts in her old age. But the same critics are silent on polygamous male emperors, some of whom had hundreds of women at their disposal at any one time.

Empress Wu reigned for 15 years until the year 705, when she fell gravely ill at the age of 81 – Biden’s age now. Taking advantage of her illness, a few senior government officials staged a coup. They surrounded her bedchamber with 500 soldiers, and forced her to abdicate in favour of her son Emperor Zhongzong, which she did.

She was treated decently after her abdication. Given the title “emperor emeritus” (tai shang huang) by her son, she continued living with full imperial honours in the palace. She died peacefully at the end of that same year, and was buried with her late husband, Emperor Gaozong.

Empress Wu was one of China’s longest-lived monarchs, in addition to being the oldest person to become one. Whoever wins the US presidential election in November will become the oldest person to be inaugurated as US president – assuming the US has not descended into civil war by January 2025.

South China Sea: Marcos has resisted drastic moves so far, but for how long?

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3269978/south-china-sea-marcos-has-resisted-drastic-moves-so-far-how-long?utm_source=rss_feed

Soon after his landslide victory in 2022, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr vowed not to allow “a single millimetre” of the nation’s coastal rights to be “trampled upon”. Crucially, he invoked the “very important” 2016 Hague ruling which rejected the bulk of China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea.

“We will use it to continue to assert our territorial rights. It is not a claim. It is already our territorial right,” he said, emphasising the final and binding nature of the tribunal award. China, which refused to participate in the international court’s proceedings, has flatly rejected the decision as “just a piece of waste paper”.

Guided by realpolitik, Marcos Jnr has made clear the Philippines “cannot go to war” over the South China Sea and will “talk to China consistently with a firm voice” – a position that has guided his foreign policy over the past two years. But nearly a decade after the arbitration award and with increasing – and increasingly violent – clashes in the disputed waters, there is growing pressure for him to adopt more radical measures.

Some strategists have pushed for Manila to open a second arbitration case against China while others suggest a full alignment with the United States and other Western powers in a brewing cold war against China. By all indications, however, Marcos is determined to pursue a middle course, combining military deterrence and diplomatic engagement to protect the interests of the Philippines.

But a symphony of misunderstandings haunts bilateral relations. On Beijing’s part, Manila’s leadership has been duplicitous and/or aiding a US-led containment strategy in Asia. Accordingly, the Philippine decision to file an arbitration case against China while welcoming an expanded American military presence on its soil in the early 2010s are seen as part of a greater Washington-led geopolitical plot.

Chinese authorities have also accused the Marcos administration of betraying prior agreements, including an alleged promise not to fortify Philippine military facilities in disputed areas such as the Second Thomas Shoal.

From the Philippines’ perspective, its actions are driven by two primary considerations: domestic public opinion and the need to establish some deterrence capability against a far more powerful neighbour. Surveys over the past decade show most Filipinos prefer a tough and uncompromising stance on the South China Sea, a position shared by the bulk of the Philippines’ American-trained defence establishment.

Moreover, the Philippines’ historical reliance on America is a function of its underdeveloped defensive capabilities. Against China and its massive navy, the asymmetry is particularly dire. China’s coastguard boasts humongous vessels, notably the “monster” cutter 5901, which is over five times as large as the Philippine coastguard’s flagship vessel, BRP Teresa Magbanua.

The escalating tensions have exposed cracks in Manila’s South China Sea strategy. Fearing a Chinese takeover of Second Thomas Shoal, hardliners are pushing for drastic measures beyond the “transparency initiative”, which largely focuses on proactive diplomacy and exposing China’s intimidation tactics. Some experts are pushing for the construction of a “concrete facility”, such as a lighthouse, over the shoal, and the deployment of larger and faster boats for resupply missions to the Philippine military.

Meanwhile, former chief justice Antonio Carpio, one of the architects of the 2016 arbitration case, has called for additional arbitration cases – zeroing in on the environmental impact of China’s reclamation and fishing activities within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Should China reject any adverse arbitral ruling, the former magistrate has advocated for seizure of overseas Chinese assets as compensation.

But Marcos has shied away from a new round of legal warfare against China, recognising that such move may cause more harm than good by potentially provoking an armed confrontation. So far, he has only been dangling potential arbitration as a bargaining chip.

There are growing calls in the Philippines to grant the US maximal access to Philippine facilities under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) to deter China. Some Filipino strategists have even called for more direct involvement on the Taiwan question by jointly preparing for – if not actively deterring – any potential contingencies.

But Marcos has sought to calibrate the American military presence in the Philippines as leverage in dealing with China.

It explains why he has repeatedly pushed back against any suggestion that EDCA bases in northern Philippines will be used for America’s Taiwan-related operations. His strategically ambiguous stance is meant to enhance his country’s strategic space, to allow it to play the two superpowers against each other on the Taiwan issue.

If anything, the Marcos administration is intent on maintaining a broad degree of independence in its foreign policy by avoiding an overreliance on America. Military chief General Romeo Brawner recently made clear the Philippines turned down America’s offer of help in the resupply and patrol operations in the disputed waters.

Instead, the Philippines is seeking to develop a broad network of security partnerships with like-minded powers. Accordingly, it has stepped up its defence spending and strategic cooperation with key defence equipment suppliers such as India and South Korea. The Philippines has also signed a reciprocal access agreement with Japan to facilitate joint military drills and weapons transfers, while pursuing similar pacts with France, New Zealand and a number of other Indo-Pacific nations.

The ultimate aim of the Marcos administration is to steer clear of US-China rivalry while acquiring sufficient strategic capital and defence capabilities to more effectively negotiate a mutually acceptable modus vivendi in the South China Sea. But if maritime tensions continue to exacerbate, the ever-cautious Filipino president might be forced to consider more drastic measures to uphold his country’s core interests.

From the sky to the sea: how China and US are racing to win the game of drones

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3270242/sky-sea-how-china-and-us-are-racing-win-game-drones?utm_source=rss_feed

The rise of military drones has transformed modern warfare in conflict zones like Ukraine and Gaza, a development that has not gone unnoticed by the US – the world’s most powerful military – and its second-placed rival China.

Both countries have been eyeing the technology, its most effective strategic uses, and the implications of artificial intelligence, to determine what it could mean for any confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Over the past two years, China has been heavily and comprehensively investing in drones, making faster, smarter and more adaptable devices for its navy, army and air force at a rate that has caught the attention of military observers.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other forms of drone technology are increasingly complementing crewed assets in People’s Liberation Army operations, making the PLA the only military to be competing tactically on a similar level with US forces.

In May, the Paris-based Naval News reported that a “mystery ship” spotted in satellite imagery of a dockyard near Shanghai appeared to be designed specifically to host fixed-wing UAVs. If correct, this could be the world’s first drone-dedicated naval carrier.

More details are known about the Type 076, an amphibious assault carrier which is under construction at the Shanghai-based Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, and appears to be another global first – a combined platform for drones and helicopters.

Last month, Naval News reported that new satellite images showed that the Type 076 is likely to be equipped with an electromagnetic catapult launcher, in line with China’s third and most advanced aircraft carrier the Fujian.

Pictures of the vessel uploaded to social media by enthusiasts in recent months have also featured helicopter and drone mock-ups, suggesting that the Type 076 is destined to carry a combined fleet of fixed-wing drones and helicopters, the article said.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said that while large deck carriers like the Fujian focused on air superiority, the Type 076 could focus on drone operations.

The construction of the Type 076 shows that China “clearly recognises the importance of autonomous systems in supporting combined arms operations”, Davis said.

“Drones, if produced in high numbers and at low unit cost, allow the PLA to exploit ‘mass’ in combat operations … [and] add a new flexibility to sea-based carrier operations.”

The risks of escalating conflicts in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait have been on the rise, with both Beijing and Washington exerting their influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

There are concerns that the US could be drawn into tensions between Beijing and Manila over competing claims in the South China Sea, which have included encounters between Chinese coastguard vessels and the Philippine navy in recent months.

The PLA has also been stepping up military pressure in recent years around Taiwan, which Beijing views as part of its territory to be reunited by force, if necessary.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan. However, Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo and is also the island’s main supplier of arms.

While the US is committed to the island’s defence, Washington has traditionally maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether it would come to Taiwan’s military help in the event of an attack from the mainland.

Harry Boneham, a senior analyst at global military intelligence company Janes, said the design of the Type 076 could dilute Taipei’s defence capacity in the event of a conflict, by launching larger drones from a wider range of locations.

“It is possible that … this would drive Taiwan to spread its air defence assets to counter a threat which can be launched from any direction, rather than concentrate them solely on the mainland-facing western side of the island,” he said.

On Thursday, an article in the Chinese military’s official newspaper PLA Daily said that unmanned systems are becoming “the main battlefield” between modern forces – with a focus on the platform’s autonomy, detection and strike capabilities.

The authors, from a People’s Liberation Army war research institute, outlined a military strategy that features distinct roles for drones of varying sophistication and size.

Large platforms will reduce manpower in the forces of the future, mid-sized platforms will transition between coordinating manned-unmanned systems to fully unmanned operations, while swarms of small drones will become an “indispensable” weapon, they said.

Another group of analysts from the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences recently laid out the lessons China has learned from the world’s “first full-scale drone war” in Ukraine, which “initially revealed the outline of future war forms”, they wrote.

In an article for the Central Party School’s weekly newspaper Study Times, the analysts said the war had shown a “rapid proliferation of lower-cost precision strike capabilities” and “new scale advantages that may emerge at disproportionately lower costs and in unforeseen ways”.

They also stressed the importance of forward-looking, independent innovation in arms development so that China can “get rid of weapons, equipment development control imposed by others”.

Military commentator and former PLA instructor Song Zhongping said Ukraine’s swarm tactics – which aim to saturate Russia’s air defences and limit its strike and interception abilities – were an “important lesson” for China.

Song noted that China’s drone strategy stresses comprehensive applications of the technology in all of its military branches. Besides UAVs, unmanned marine surface drones and underwater devices are also going to have “transformative changes”, he said.

While Chinese naval analysts have focused on the use of small, cheap, single-function expendable drones operating in swarms of bee or fishlike formations, the US would need to rely on more capable, longer range devices, according to a US think tank.

A report released in June by the Centre for a New American Security said the US would find it “difficult to usefully employ smaller drones” as the larger air or sea vehicles required to transport them could be attacked by PLA forces.

Nevertheless, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo last month introduced the concept of unleashing a “hellscape” of unmanned systems in the Taiwan Strait to counter any PLA operation against the island.

According to Paparo, the US plan is to launch thousands of unmanned systems – from surface vessels and submarines to aerial drones – against PLA forces as soon as they begin to cross the strait, buying time for the US and its allies to respond.

But for Singapore-based defence analyst Collin Koh, while the Paparo plan is a “denial strategy”, both Beijing and Washington will also need to employ “control strategies” in any future conflict.

“Denial means you deny a domain to the enemy, but you may not be able to use it. But control means you deny, and you can use a domain yourself,” said Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“So in that sense, we’re looking at how best you can ensure your drones can be fielded in large numbers at the same time with the requisite reach and sustainability out in the field,” he added.

Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University in the US, said Beijing has “a huge geographical advantage” that plays into every aspect of a hypothetical war in the region.

“I do believe it would affect drones – that is, China could employ probably 100 times or more drones into the battle,” he said.

“They can have a very complex deployment scheme that they’re not dependent on any single kind of logistic stream or basing area, [so] they can really spread their forces out and employ them from different factors … in huge numbers.”

As the world’s largest drone manufacturer, China would also be able to produce “huge quantities of high-quality drones” and have “an innovation advantage on AI, an ability to move innovative weapons forward more quickly”, Goldstein said.

For Koh, the cost equation will be a “prevalent issue” in both countries’ future drone strategies.

“Clearly the Chinese will keep harping on their cost advantages. They are able to field things at cheaper costs – whether they’re effective or not is another question – but at least in theory, [they can] field equipment much [more rapidly] at a lower cost,” he said.

“For the US, they are clearly behind that cost curve. So that is going to factor in quite prominently in any future conflict.”

China has been rapidly developing unmanned military platforms since the 2000s but doubled down on the technology as its significance became apparent in the unfolding war in Ukraine.

That has included the addition of autonomous features to its unmanned combat forces using artificial intelligence, a path flagged by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his report to the 20th party congress in 2022.

In the report, a five-year directional policy document, Xi said the development of “unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities” would be accelerated and the proportion of the PLA’s “new-domain forces” increased.

Chinese analysts argue that intelligent drones that do not rely on remote human control could respond more quickly and carry out risky infiltration operations and surprise attacks.

They are pushing for better power systems and data communication networks, as well as planning and control systems that would be able to run clusters of drones using AI capabilities.

A PLA Daily article last year touted the “emerging ability” of small and micro drones to spread “deep into enemy territory” through airdrops or artillery fire where they could “autonomously approach the intended target or directly attack it”.

Autonomous systems could also enhance coordination with crewed systems in swarm operations, automatically adapting to changes in plans and maintaining manoeuvre and combat formations, the article said.

The intelligent drones could also be deployed in regular manned-unmanned coordinated operations to “grasp the battlefield situation and expand early warning detection range” and “accurately direct and guide firepower”, it added.

China is also testing new concept designs for its next-generation stealth fighters which incorporate drones.

Little is known about the designs, but last month Chinese scientists reported a successful test flight for a jet that incorporates detachable segments on its wings that metamorphose into two “flying wing” drones propelled by electric ducted fans.

Recent years have also seen a range of upgrades to Chinese medium- and large-sized drones, as well as the roll-out of advanced UAVs, like the WZ-8 and stealthy combat GJ-11.

At the upper end of the scale, China’s FL-2 stealth transport drone – developed by Zhongtian Yinkong Technology – combines flying wing and conventional wing designs, as revealed when the vehicle was unveiled on state television in May.

According to Chinese military magazine Ordnance Industry Science Technology, the FL-2 has a maximum take-off weight of 22,000kg (48,500lbs) and can carry precision-guided weapons and surveillance equipment, as well as large numbers of swarming drones.

The FL-2 is also capable of coordinating with conventional aircraft to act as a wingman during combat and conducting “autonomous attack missions” based on preset strategies in the system, it said.

The unmanned Z-6B – based on a 1960s Chinese helicopter – can handle vertical take-off and landing, making it suitable for large naval platforms and was on display at one of Europe’s biggest defence shows in Paris last month.

Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation think tank, noted that the Z-6B “is a multi-role platform capable of surveillance, targeting support, and anti-submarine warfare, among other missions”.

China is also exploring underwater drone technology, unveiling an ultra-strong carbon fibre hull in June for the large-scale production of high-performance deep-sea submersibles.

There have also been breakthroughs in extra-large unmanned submersible vehicles, according to a Naval News report on satellite imagery of the Sanya naval base in the southern island province of Hainan.

Naval News said the satellite images showed that China has built at least two of the greater-sized underwater drones, in different sizes and designs.

China has made no announcements so far about extra-large unmanned underwater vehicle programmes, which are likely to have longer ranges than their mid-sized counterparts and could be more suitable for transport and offensive roles.

While China is essentially working on drones in “all areas”, it is marine unmanned surface vessels (USVs) that could be the “beautiful compromise for a Taiwan scenario”, according to Goldstein, the US strategist.

“They have a longer range and greater speed than underwater vessels,” he said, adding that China will have learned from Ukraine’s drone and counter-drone strategies in the Black Sea, where cheap, small USVs were used to attack naval facilities and warships.

But he added that China had already been “very interested” in the potential uses for USVs as long as five years ago and has probably achieved a lead over the US and Taiwanese forces.

In February, China unveiled its next-generation Thunderer A2000 combat USV that can reach a top speed of 35 knots and features an 8-cell vertical launching system that can accommodate short and medium-range surface-to-air missiles.

And in 2022, it launched the world’s first autonomous seaborne civilian drone carrier, the that can accommodate dozens of unmanned vehicles, including drones, unmanned ships and submersibles.

According to a Science and Technology Daily report at the time, the range of equipment is intended to form an observation network for marine monitoring programmes, including disaster prevention and mitigation.

While Chinese sources have insisted that the research vessel is for civilian purposes, its arrival at a dock in the Dalian naval base used to service PLA Navy vessels has raised concerns that it may become a military intelligence tool.

The Zhu Hai Yun also made an appearance in the Taiwan Strait late last year when it sailed around the island and crossed into Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone.

Despite China’s apparent advantages in the race to develop drone warfare capabilities, Goldstein pointed out that US strength lies in its operational experience with the technology, dating back to the war in Vietnam.

“The United States is sort of the pioneer of this warfare. We have used it successfully and, to some extent, in Iraq and Afghanistan drones were a huge element. So that’s a real advantage for the United States,” he said.

“It’s one thing to talk about drones and build drones. It’s another to employ them in combat.”

Despite China’s dominance in commercial drone production, the US also has an advantage in building military drones, according to Raymond Kuo, director of the Rand Corporation’s Taiwan Initiative.

“The latter require more sophisticated technology and protection against jamming and electronic interference. But of course, sheer mass has a power of its own, depending on the mission,” he said.

“Forward deployed, counter-drone capabilities will be essential to neutralising China’s numerical advantage and allowing US and Taiwanese forces to focus on the main thrust of a PLA attack in the case of an invasion.”

Observers also expect drones to be increasingly used during peacetime. Heath, from the Rand Corporation, said that Beijing could use drones “to test Taiwan’s resolve and carry out surveillance and reconnaissance”.

“Taiwan might be able to use drones to help respond to PLA aircraft incursions across the centre line as a way to reduce maintenance costs on manned aircraft. Exercises and training on both sides is likely to include more drones both on the water and in the air,” he said.

But Koh, the Singapore-based defence analyst, foresees potential “additional complications” when the PLA’s Type 076 drone carrier begins operations.

He predicts that the vessel is likely to “take all the peacetime role of conducting or supporting drone operations around Taiwan”. The more sustained level of drone operations will create air defence complications for the island, he said.