• Three German citizens arrested on suspicion of spying for China
• China’s ‘exemplary’ new lunar atlas is first moon surface update since Apollo-era programme
• South China Sea: China and Cambodia vow to move quickly to conclude code of conduct amid tension in disputed waterway
• Chinese state media hit out at US over TikTok ‘sell-or-ban’ bill as owner ByteDance remains silent
• Top Chinese military commander pledges to retaliate against ‘unjust provocation’ over maritime disputes
• Solomon Islands’ pro-China PM fails to secure outright majority in election
• Baidu and Zhipu AI’s large language models top Chinese generative AI rankings, but OpenAI, Anthropic remain ahead in overall performance
• [Uk] Two men charged with spying for China
• In photos: Heavy rains batter Chinese province of Guangdong causing massive floods
• Germany arrests 3 suspected of spying for China
• Hong Kong police arrest 51 people in crackdown on prostitution syndicate bringing in Thailand, mainland Chinese sex workers
• Inspirational domestic inscriptions of deceased man in China trend online, highlight plight of country’s elderly
• Mama’s boys and marital strife are no joke in today’s China
• Chinese scientists close in on laser propulsion for superfast, silent submarines
• Is influx of Chinese students in the Philippines a security threat? Manila starts probe amid ‘sleeper cell’ concerns
• Rescuers in China’s Guangdong race to save residents from flooding after heavy rain pummels province
• [World] Bridge collapses as floods hit China's south
• Tesla’s closest Chinese rival, Li Auto, slashes prices as EV discount war spreads to premium market
• Chinese mother spends savings on tiny flat to escape hectic home, work life twice a week, resonates with many women
• Chinese province of Guangdong braces for historic floods
• Pro-China President Muizzu’s party sweeps Maldives parliamentary elections, preliminary results say
• How can China remedy deflation risks without ditching long-held economic strategy?
• [World] Pro-China party wins Maldives election by landslide
• Hong Kong stocks soar after China’s market regulator pledges support for city’s IPOs, connect scheme
• East Asia joins global military spending surge over China concerns: report
• BNP Paribas hires 30 to build up new China securities unit
• [Business] How Chinese firms are using Mexico as a backdoor to the US
• 600 children raised by China monk, known as ‘Papa Wu’, who helps desperate single mothers, turns temple into loving home
• ‘Reform and opening up are not dead’, but today’s China ‘looks risky’: veteran observer David Lampton

Three German citizens arrested on suspicion of spying for China

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/three-german-citizens-arrested-on-suspicion-of-spying-for-china

Three German citizens, a married couple from Düsseldorf and a man from Bad Homburg, have been arrested on suspicion of spying on behalf of China, prosecutors have said, in the second high-profile alleged espionage case reported in the country in days.

The three are accused of passing on technical military knowhow to Chinese authorities in return for money. The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said it could be “just the tip of the iceberg” of spy rings operating in Germany.

In one case, prosecutors allege, the trio exported a laser bought in Germany to China without the required permissions. Information on machine part technology that could be used in warships was allegedly also sent to China.

The couple, identified as Herwig and Ina F, are believed to have been employed by a company affiliated to a university, and the man, identified as Thomas R, is thought by prosecutors to have acted as a liaison with the couple. All three are thought by prosecutors to have been recruited by the Chinese secret service, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), at some point after 2002 in mainland China and been operational until at least June 2022.

The arrests come just days after the arrest of two German Russians who were allegedly spying on behalf of Russia, scouting out military bases – including US posts used for training Ukrainians in the operation of Abrams tanks – with a view to carrying out explosive attacks on them.

Thomas Haldenwang, the president of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, told a press conference on Monday the trio were “involved in carrying out fictitious transactions to conceal their activities” and that “goods were either not declared or were exported via third countries”.

He said it was believed their motivation was “purely monetary” and, according to prosecutors, the trio were paid in the upper five-figures for relevant information they passed on. Haldenwang said his office believed the alleged spy ring was one of many similar ones operating in Germany.

German media reports said Thomas R spoke fluent Mandarin and was married to a Chinese woman, while the married couple are reported to have lived and worked in an 18-storey apartment building in Düsseldorf where their company was also registered.

The accused were arrested early this morning, and crime investigators were searching their home and workplaces.

Universities have long been seen as a weak point in the German authorities’ attempts to clamp down on Chinese industrial espionage in Germany.

According to media reports, the accused were encouraged to set up research projects that could be useful for a Chinese contract partner, under a so-called “knowledge transfer” agreement.

The project was then financed by the Chinese state via its agencies, prosecutors said, and the contract partner was the same MSS employee that Thomas R was allegedly working for.

The accused were in discussions at the time of their arrests to launch further research projects relating to China’s planned expansion of its maritime combat operations.

Haldenwang said that cases of so-called proliferation were becoming increasingly common, referring to the unauthorised transfer of military material or the technology or relevant knowledge required for its production. He said such incidents were most commonly linked to Iran, North Korea, Russia and China.

He said the case uncovered on Monday was typical of what investigators were repeatedly finding. “Those involved put much energy into concealing their activities, for example by carrying out sham transactions, falsely declaring goods or using intermediaries for exports.”

China’s ‘exemplary’ new lunar atlas is first moon surface update since Apollo-era programme

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3259920/chinas-exemplary-new-lunar-atlas-first-moon-surface-update-apollo-era-programme?utm_source=rss_feed

China has officially unveiled the world’s only high-definition “geologic atlas” of the entire moon, the first major update of such basic lunar data since Nasa’s Apollo-era programme in the 1960s and 70s.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) said the high-definition maps – published in Chinese and English – will provide up-to-date scientific references for future lunar research and exploration.

“Geology research of the moon is still built upon the lunar geologic atlas developed during the Apollo era. As moon research advances, the existing map can no longer meet the needs of future lunar scientific research and exploration,” the top national scientific institution said in a statement on Sunday.

2 major African space institutes join China-led moon project

The new map of Earth’s only natural satellite is provided at a 1:2.5 million scale, compared with the previous scale of 1:5 million, which offered less detail. As well as the geological history of the moon, the map provides information on its 14 types of structures and 17 types of rocks, with labels for 12,341 craters and 81 impact basins.

The CAS said the atlas has been integrated into the digital lunar cloud platform built by Chinese scientists, and will help in selecting landing sites, resource exploration and path planning for China’s future moon exploration.

Co-lead researcher Ouyang Ziyuan, considered the “founding father” of China’s lunar programme, said the maps will also help researchers select a site for a planned lunar station.

“The geological atlas of the moon is of great significance for studying the evolution of the moon, selecting the site for a future lunar research station and utilising lunar resources,” Ouyang was quoted by state news agency Xinhua as saying on Sunday.

“It can also help us better understand the Earth and other planets in the solar system, such as Mars,” he added.

Turkey applies for China-Russia space programme to build base on the moon

Ouyang started the lunar mapping project in 2012 along with fellow geologist Liu Jianzhong from the CAS Institute of Geochemistry in Guiyang.

China has sent multiple Chang’e mission orbiters, landers and rovers to the moon, collecting data that has contributed to building the map since the country launched its lunar exploration programme in 2004.

While the map is compiled mainly using data from Chinese lunar missions, the scientists also referenced previous data and research from outside China.

The researchers are from several CAS institutes, Jilin University, Shandong University, China University of Geosciences in Beijing and the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.

Liu told the official Science and Technology Daily that the map is an “exemplary” achievement in the field of lunar science.

“It provides information and scientific references for the formulation of scientific goals and implementation of the lunar exploration project.”

“It also represents China’s contribution to the study of the origin and evolution of the moon and the solar system,” he said.

South China Sea: China and Cambodia vow to move quickly to conclude code of conduct amid tension in disputed waterway

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3259931/south-china-sea-china-and-cambodia-vow-move-quickly-conclude-code-conduct-amid-tension-disputed?utm_source=rss_feed

China and Cambodia pledged on Monday to speed up finalising the long-awaited South China Sea code of conduct when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Beijing’s loyal partner.

During a meeting with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol, Wang said both Beijing and Phnom Penh had agreed to protect “hard-earned regional peace” under multiple frameworks, such as the China-Asean (Association of Southeast Asian nations) and Lancang-Mekong cooperations.

Plans for a code of conduct in the region can be traced back to the early 2000s but only reached the third reading late last year.

On Sunday, Wang told Cambodian Foreign Minister Chenda Sophea Sok the two countries should extend cooperation in various fields and create “a favourable external environment” for that cooperation, according to the Chinese foreign ministry’s readout.

Echoing Wang’s remarks, Chenda Sophea Sok said Phnom Penh expected to see more economic projects in Cambodia under the Beijing-led Belt and Road Initiative, and it “opposes troublemaking in the region by extraterritorial forces”, the readout said.

Wang highlighted cooperation in six fields – politics, production capacity, agriculture, energy, security and humanities – and said Beijing and Phnom Penh should “push high-quality development of China-Asean relations”.

Wang’s three-day trip also includes meetings with Prime Minister Hun Manet, former prime minister Hun Sen and King Norodom Sihamoni.

Before his stop in Cambodia, Wang visited Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, which is an Asean observer state, highlighting China’s emphasis on relationships with Asean countries amid tensions in the South China Sea.

This month, foreign ministers in Vietnam and Laos visited Beijing.

Beijing’s relations with the Philippines have deteriorated as the Asean member has drawn closer to Washington amid the South China Sea disputes.

Wang’s high-profile visit to Cambodia came only six months after Chinese President Xi Jinping met Hun Manet in Beijing as he inherited the country’s leadership from his father, Hun Sen, and after Wang met Chenda Sophea Sok in Beijing in December.

On the issue of cybercrime in the region, Wang emphasised the need for continuous crackdowns on “cyberscams and human trafficking”.

China’s relations with Cambodia remain among the closest of the Asean countries. The two have no territorial disputes and Phnom Penh largely depends on China’s trade and investment.

China is Cambodia’s biggest trading partner, with US$11.6 billion in trade between the two countries last year, according to Cambodia’s customs.

Cambodia’s largest lender supplies loans to finance the building of airports, roads and other infrastructure projects. Beijing owns 37 per cent of Phnom Penh’s US$10 billion in foreign loans, according to the latest figure by Cambodia’s Public Debt Statistical Bulletin.

In 2021, China’s direct investment in Cambodia was US$470 million, bringing its total investment to nearly US$7 billion, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce – more than a quarter of the country’s GDP that year. The investments have mainly focused on energy and the power grid, and communications under the belt and road programme.

However, some major projects have drawn scepticism, mainly from the United States. Beijing has been helping Cambodia upgrade its Ream Naval Base on the Gulf of Thailand following Phnom Penh’s dismantling of a US-built facility at the same base in 2020.

Washington raised concerns the base could be used as an overseas outpost by the Chinese military, a proposition denied by Cambodia’s defence ministry last year.

According to satellite image analysis by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, two Chinese corvettes have had a “consistent presence” at the China-funded base in southern Cambodia since December 3.

Washington also paid attention to a Beijing-led mega-construction in Cambodia, the Funan Techo Canal project that connects Phnom Penh to the Gulf of Thailand coastal area.

The plan has raised concern from both the US and Vietnam, with both stressing the need for transparency around the US$1.7 billion project.

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Chinese state media hit out at US over TikTok ‘sell-or-ban’ bill as owner ByteDance remains silent

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3259926/chinese-state-media-hit-out-us-over-tiktok-sell-or-ban-bill-owner-bytedance-remains-silent?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese state media outlets have spoken out against a new bill passed by the US House of Representatives that would force a divestment of TikTok, while the app’s parent company ByteDance and the Chinese government have remained silent.

The US House of Representatives on Saturday fast tracked legislation requiring ByteDance to divest its ownership of the hit short video app within 12 months by linking it to an aid package for Ukraine and Israel. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill in the coming days, and US President Joe Biden said he would sign it into law.

The latest developments have increased the odds of a forced sale of TikTok, even though the company has told US employees it will fight the law in court.

TikTok owner denies report of profit surge, gets Instagram rival ready

TikTok “will move to the courts for a legal challenge” when the bill is signed, said Michael Beckerman, TikTok’s head of policy in the Americas, in an internal memo on Saturday seen by the South China Morning Post.

The Chinese response has been relatively measured. ByteDance did not immediately reply to a request for comment on Monday.

The Post reported earlier that Beijing-based ByteDance decided to delegate the political lobbying and legal battle to the TikTok team under its Singaporean CEO Chew Shou Zi.

In a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, TikTok reiterated its opposition to the House vote, criticising lawmakers for “using the cover of important foreign and humanitarian assistance” to push forward what would effectively be a ban that would “trample the free speech rights” of its 170 million American users and 7 million businesses.

The Chinese government has not commented on the latest bill, but Chinese state media have voiced opposition.

In an article on Sunday night, CGTN, the English-language channel of state-run CCTV, said the request for ByteDance to divest TikTok over security concerns was a sign of the US falling into “Sinophobia”.

Another CGTN opinion piece, penned by special commentator David Gosset, the founder of the China-Europe-America Global Initiative, argued that the bill’s passage in the House of Representatives “exposes weaknesses and a lack of confidence” about China in Washington, and questioned if US lawmakers will go after other Chinese-backed ventures like fashion retailer Shein.

“It becomes apparent that whenever a non-American entity poses a threat to US dominance in a particular sector, the government tends to intervene, politicise the issue, and rewrite the rules of engagement,” Gosset wrote.

The latest backlash against TikTok began in March when the House passed a “sell-or-ban” bill. Over the weekend, lawmakers in the House passed a foreign aid package that contained the TikTok proposal, but the new legislation extended the deadline for a sale to roughly a year – subject to a presidential waiver.

China Daily reported that the bill is likely to be signed into law, and would deal a heavy blow to Sino-US relations. Chen Weihua, China Daily’s EU bureau chief, endorsed Elon Musk’s comment on X, where the Tesla chief executive accused the bill of “being contrary to freedom of speech and expression”. Chen said that Musk “speaks truth to power”, adding that “not many would dare to say that in McCarthyist America today”, referring to the political repression of alleged communists in the US in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

Separately, TikTok spokesman Alex Haurek denied a Bloomberg report on Sunday that the company was preparing to remove Erich Andersen, its US-based general counsel whose job it was to convince Washington of the app’s safety. The TikTok spokesman told Bloomberg the information was “100 per cent false”.

Hu Xijin, former chief editor of Global Times, a nationalist tabloid affiliated with the People’s Daily newspaper, wrote that the passage of the TikTok bill was not all bad. The new bill, which extended the deadline until after the US election, “will ease the controversy surrounding TikTok during the election”, Hu noted.

Top Chinese military commander pledges to retaliate against ‘unjust provocation’ over maritime disputes

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3259942/top-chinese-military-commander-pledges-retaliate-against-unjust-provocation-over-maritime-disputes?utm_source=rss_feed

A top commander from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has pledged to take “firm countermeasures” against “unjust provocation” over maritime disputes amid elevated tensions in the South China Sea.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the 19th Western Pacific Naval Symposium in the port city of Qingdao, General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, called for abandoning the “cold war mentality” and bridging differences through dialogue.

“China has been committed to resolving maritime disputes peacefully through friendly consultation with countries directly concerned, but it will safeguard its legitimate rights in the face of deliberate violation of its sovereignty and it will take firm countermeasures against unreasonable provocations,” Zhang was quoted as saying by state news agency Xinhua.

Will China hold back during the US-Philippine Balikatan military drills?

“We will not stir up trouble but will never be afraid of trouble, and the Chinese military will resolutely defend the unity of the country and national interests,” he added.

The forum took place against a backdrop of intensified clashes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, where they have overlapping territorial disputes. Tensions are also running high in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.

The regional event, held in China for the second time since it was established in 1988, was attended by naval personnel from 29 countries. However, no navy representatives from the Philippines, which is a member state, were at this year’s forum.

Liang Wei, a senior officer with China’s Naval Research Academy, said that all member countries and observer states had been invited, adding it was not clear why the Philippines did not attend the four-day event, according to state media.

Representatives from the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, the UK, Cambodia, Chile, India, Indonesia and Pakistan were among those at the event.

Beijing may get ‘up-close’ with US-Philippine drills amid South China Sea row

This week’s event, themed “Oceans with a Shared Future”, is the 19th edition of the biennial meeting, and comes amid rising concerns over maritime safety risks and challenges in the region. China last hosted the forum in 2014.

Zhang said that China’s armed forces had been “continuously deepening exchanges with other countries’ navies” and “actively taking part in international cooperation on maritime security”.

China will also “engage in international military cooperation in a more active and open manner”, he said.

Chinese-developed ‘smart’ water cannon set to turn the tide in South China Sea

Talks between the US and Chinese navy chiefs were expected following the resumption of military-to-military communication between the two countries. The commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Stephen Koehler, is leading the American delegation to the event.

Also on Monday, the US and the Philippines started their largest-ever annual Balikatan “shoulder to shoulder” drills in the South China Sea. For the first time, the French navy is also taking part in the exercises, which will run until May 10, and also include Australia’s navy.

This year’s forum coincides with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the PLA Navy, which is holding public commemorative events until Wednesday. The events are being staged in major naval ports including Qingdao, Dalian, Yantai, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Zhanjiang, Haikou and Sanya.

Solomon Islands’ pro-China PM fails to secure outright majority in election

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3259947/solomon-islands-pro-china-pm-fails-secure-outright-majority-election?utm_source=rss_feed

The incumbent prime minister of Solomon Islands was set to fall short of an outright election majority on Monday, forcing the pro-Beijing Pacific leader to woo an unwieldy mix of potential coalition partners.

Manasseh Sogavare’s Our Party has won 12 seats with six contests still in play, according to provisional results reported by the public broadcaster – well short of a majority in the 50-seat parliament.

Coalition negotiations will be closely watched from afar, with major consequences for Beijing’s push into the South Pacific.

Sogavare signed a security pact with Beijing in 2022, and has overseen the rapid expansion of Chinese interests across the archipelago.

His two main rival parties – sitting on 12 seats between them – have both expressed a desire to wind back China’s influence if they form a government.

The balance of seats are held by an unpredictable collection of independents and minor parties.

Locals have a home-grown term – “grasshopper” – for the undeclared politicians who bounce around coalition talks trying to shop their vote.

Election time can be a tense affair in Solomon Islands, given the post-vote rioting that has plagued the country in the past.

Police quelled a small outbreak of violence between two villages on the island of Malaita over the weekend, sparked by an election result.

A band of men damaged a “water source, church building, and dwelling houses” in a neighbouring village after votes did not go their way, police said.

In the coming days, politicians with common interests will start to coalesce into “camps” based in Honiara’s casinos and hotels – seeking to form a ruling majority.

Only once the dust has settled from this process, which could take days or even weeks, will a prime minister emerge.

Baidu and Zhipu AI’s large language models top Chinese generative AI rankings, but OpenAI, Anthropic remain ahead in overall performance

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3259904/baidu-and-zhipu-ais-large-language-models-top-chinese-generative-ai-rankings-openai-anthropic-remain?utm_source=rss_feed

Baidu’s Ernie Bot 4.0 and start-up Zhipu AI’s GLM-4 rank top among Chinese large language models (LLMs), but their foreign rivals still lead in overall capabilities, according to a new test by Tsinghua University in Beijing.

The SuperBench assessment report examined 14 representative LLMs – the technology underpinning generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots – and found that overseas models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Anthropic’s Claude-3, came out on top in multiple capabilities, including semantic comprehension, coding abilities and alignment with human commands.

Researchers found “obvious gaps” in the code-writing and operative abilities in the real-world environment between domestic and first-class foreign models.

The report aims to “provide objective and scientific evaluation criteria” to examine a growing number of LLMs that have emerged recently, according to a WeChat post published by Tsinghua’s Basic Model Research Centre, which conducted the assessment with the state-backed Zhongguancun Laboratory.

Chinese tech giants and start-ups have been racing to improve their LLMs since OpenAI, a US start-up backed by Microsoft, launched a series of innovative tools powered by generative AI, including ChatGPT and text-to-video service Sora.

Around 200 LLMs have been introduced in China, where OpenAI’s services are officially unavailable, according to government figures.

The Tsinghua report echoes a recent comment by Alibaba Group Holding co-founder and chairman Joe Tsai, who said China is about two years behind US companies in the global AI race, citing how OpenAI has leapfrogged the rest of the tech industry in AI innovation. Alibaba is the owner of the South China Morning Post.

Revisions to existing US export controls, which took effect earlier this month, have made it harder for the mainland to access advanced AI processors and semiconductor-manufacturing equipment.

Despite the challenges faced by Chinese LLM developers, Tsinghua’s report showed that Ernie Bot 4.0, the latest version of the generative AI chatbot launched by web search giant Baidu, and GLM-4 from Zhipu AI, a start-up founded by a Tsinghua graduate, have gradually narrowed their respective gaps with the world’s best models in overall performances.

One area where China’s LLMs performed better is Chinese text-language tasks, the test found. Start-up Moonshot AI’s Kimi chatbot, Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen 2.1, GLM-4 and Ernie Bot 4.0 ranked in the top four in that category, although GPT-4 still came first in Chinese text-language reasoning.

Moonshot AI and Zhipu AI, along with Baichuan and MiniMax, are locally known as the “four new AI tigers” of China for being some of the country’s most promising generative AI start-ups.

Established in 2019, Zhipu AI has raised 2.5 billion yuan (US$347 million) since last year, according to its founder, from backers that include state-affiliated investors, venture capitalists and Big Tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent Holdings and Meituan.

Moonshot AI, also based in Beijing, raised US$1 billion in a funding round in February, according to multiple Chinese media reports.

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[Uk] Two men charged with spying for China

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68874822

In photos: Heavy rains batter Chinese province of Guangdong causing massive floods

https://www.washingtonpost.com/photography/interactive/2024/photos-heavy-rains-batter-chinese-province-guangdong-causing-massive-floods/2024-04-22T10:19:53.371Z

Heavy rains continued to batter southern China on Monday, forcing tens of thousands of people from their homes as rescuers raced to evacuate those trapped by flooding and locate at least 11 missing residents.

The historic levels of rain across Guangdong province have come earlier than the region’s usual flood season, between May and June, prompting concerns about the effects of climate change on the country.

Germany arrests 3 suspected of spying for China

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3259924/germany-arrests-three-suspected-spying-china?utm_source=rss_feed

Investigators on Monday arrested three German nationals in western Germany on suspicion of spying for China, prosecutors said, accusing them of gathering information on technology that could be used for military purposes.

The trio, named as Herwig F., Ina F. and Thomas R. “are strongly suspected of having worked for a Chinese secret service” at some point before June 2022, the prosecutors said in a statement.

The suspects were arrested in Düsseldorf and Bad Homburg in western Germany and their homes and workplaces were also searched.

Thomas R. is suspected of working as an agent for an employee of the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS), obtaining information in Germany on technologies that could be used for military purposes.

He is said to have established contact with Herwig F. and his wife Ina F., who run a company in Düsseldorf, to access such technologies and make contacts in the German scientific and research community.

The company signed an agreement with a German university to provide “knowledge transfer”, the prosecutors said.

The first phase of the project was to prepare a study for a Chinese “contractual partner” on state-of-the-art machine parts used in powerful ship engines, they said.

The contractual partner was the MSS employee that Thomas R. was working for and the project was financed by Chinese state agencies, they said.

At the time of their arrest, the suspects were also allegedly in further negotiations about research projects that could be useful for the expansion of China’s maritime combat capabilities.

The trio is also accused of purchasing a special laser from Germany on behalf of the MSS and exporting it to China without authorisation.

The arrests came a week after Chancellor Olaf Scholz travelled to China to press Beijing on its support for Russia’s wartime economy and to raise issues of intellectual property theft and fair market access.

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said the government was monitoring what she called a significant threat posed by Chinese espionage in business, industry and science.

“We look very closely at these risks and threats and have clearly warned and raised awareness about them so that protective measures are increased everywhere,” she said in a statement.

In this case, the issue of German innovative technologies that can be used for military purposes was “particularly sensitive”, she added.

Last week, Germany arrested two Russian-German nationals on suspicion of spying for Russia. They were said to have plotted sabotage attacks aimed at undermining Germany’s military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Hong Kong police arrest 51 people in crackdown on prostitution syndicate bringing in Thailand, mainland Chinese sex workers

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3259908/hong-kong-police-arrest-51-people-crackdown-prostitution-syndicate-bringing-thailand-mainland?utm_source=rss_feed

Hong Kong police have arrested 51 people in a crackdown on a prostitution syndicate that brought in sex workers from mainland China and Thailand to work in Yau Ma Tei.

Inspector Lai Tsz-yan said on Monday that suspects arrested in a series of raids over the past two weeks included three Hong Kong locals, eight Thai women and 40 mainland Chinese residents who hold two-way exit permits. They are aged between 21 and 66.

The force has charged 19 of the 51 arrested with managing a vice establishment, soliciting for an immoral purpose or breach of condition of stay.

Thirty suspects were handed over to immigration officers while the remaining two were still under custody.

Police and the Immigration Department launched the arrest operation code-named “Cannonshot” from April 8 to 21, with a focus on Temple Street, after the force found street prostitution remained active within the Yau Ma Tei district.

Undercover police discovered the activities after they were solicited on the street by syndicate members who ran the brothels.

The investigation revealed that the syndicate hired women from mainland China and Thailand who worked out of designated subdivided flats, while charging the sex workers a commission of up to 60 per cent for each service.

21 arrested as Hong Kong police bust prostitution syndicate in Kwun Tong

“Members of the syndicate also provided the prostitutes with supplies, including condoms, lubricants and disposable towels,” Lai, from the Yau Tsim District Special Duties Squad, said.

A large quantity of condoms, mouthwash and lubricants were also confiscated at the suspected vice establishments.

“The police noticed that the syndicate usually choose Tong Lau buildings as their venues, as those old tenement buildings often had low security and the presence of front and back entrances that facilitated an easy escape,” Lai said.

She added the syndicate also installed a large number of closed-circuit television cameras outside the premises.

“This allows them to keep an eye on the surrounding areas and better prevent law enforcement authorities from carrying out their operations,” she said.

7 deny charges over plot to kill Hong Kong police officers in 2019

Lai reiterated that street prostitution activities, especially the organised ones, had a negative impact on the quality of life of nearby residents and were a key target of police enforcement.

In Hong Kong, working as a prostitute is legal, but it is against the law to solicit clients, run a brothel of two or more people, live off the earnings of a sex worker, and control a woman for vice.

Inspirational domestic inscriptions of deceased man in China trend online, highlight plight of country’s elderly

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/social-welfare/article/3258477/inspirational-domestic-inscriptions-deceased-man-china-trend-online-highlight-plight-countrys?utm_source=rss_feed

An array of poignant inscriptions revealing the thoughts and feelings of a recently deceased 78-year-old man which were written on walls and furniture around his home have turned the spotlight on the plight of China’s rapidly ageing population.

The “house of thoughts” was captured at the man’s funeral, and posted on by a photographer on a Xiaohongshu account @Caishanhai on April 7.

The discovery has move many people on mainland social media.

All around his rural home in central China’s Shanxi province, Zhang Fuqing wrote everything that occurred to him, from daily routines to his family history and his curiosity about the universe.

Among them, on a brick wall, was this: “Insecticide should be sprayed on the apricot trees every year when the flowers fall. The larger the fruit the sweeter it is.”

In another, Zhang reflected on a piece of news he had heard in 2023: “Kashgar in Xinjiang will become one of the world’s biggest logistic centres by 2026. Will Zhang Fuqing, 77, have the chance to see it?”

“August 7, 2023, 7 o’clock. Fuqing, blood sugar 9.0, weight 80kg. Zhongxiu, blood sugar 13.8,” wrote in another about himself and his wife.

Another message read: “Every March and July, find young people in the village to help Fuqing and Zhongxiu scan their faces with mobile phones, to claim our pensions.”

The old man’s musings did not stop at the mundane, they even ventured into the cosmos.

“How big is the universe? The sun’s surface temperature is 6,000 degrees Celsius, its centre is 15,000,000 degrees Celsius. It takes 1.3 million earths to fill the sun’s volume, and the mass of the sun is 330,000 times that of earth. It takes 48 moons to fill Earth’s volume. There are 200 billion stars in the galaxy.”

Zhang’s neatly written notes topped Xiaohongshu’s trending list on April 7, and attracted many to comment about the beauty of life, and the unseen issues that elderly people face.

“I’m so moved. These bricks are the long-lasting legacy of a man who has lived vividly in this world,” said one online observer.

“Through his notes I see the life of the older generations. For all their life they worked hard in a small courtyard, day and night, spring to autumn. They only have themselves to talk to, and never expected anyone else to answer their questions,” said another.

“I cried when I saw Fuqing’s writing about the face scanning. I saw my parents in his words,” said a third.

China has one of the world’s most rapidly ageing populations.

The country was home to 280 million people aged above 60 by the end of 2022, 19,8 per cent of its total population and the nation faces a staggering challenge to meet their needs.

---

Mama’s boys and marital strife are no joke in today’s China

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/22/china-short-dramas-censorship/2024-04-19T02:50:17.116Z

Tales about evil mothers-in-law have landed China’s wildly popular ultrashort dramas in trouble with official censors.

Bossy matriarchs who baby their adult sons are a staple of the latest entertainment craze among Gen Z in the country. They harangue daughters-in-law, the heroines of the shows, for subpar cooking and high electricity bills.

Sometimes, it gets weird. In one series, the older woman even helps her son shower and brush his teeth. Wronged and disgusted, the young wife plots revenge. In a dramatic finale, she reveals her mother-in-law’s bullying to her husband — or she dumps him and strikes out alone.

Over-the-top dramas about family bust-ups like these helped turn bite-sized soaps into a $5 billion industry for Chinese streaming giants. Now, Beijing is cracking down on the format’s allegedly “inappropriate” plots about marital strife for fear they will hurt the government’s campaign encouraging families to stay together and have more children.

Rising official concern about the corrupting influence of micro-dramas will probably slow the meteoric rise of the industry in China, experts say, and may accelerate studios’ efforts to go global.

After two years in which production companies have sprung up across the country to take advantage of an emerging trend — sometimes relying on ChatGPT to churn out scripts — the industry has reached a turning point, said Huang Zhongjun, a scholar at Zhejiang Normal University who has studied micro-dramas.

For Huang, the format has proven harmful to society in part because viewers are fed unrealistic plots that “vilify people and amplify conflicts” within families. Young people, who spend more time with their screens than real people, are becoming “emotionally deficient” and “unwilling to get married or have children,” he added.

Censors this month called out mother-in-law dramas for straying from “mainstream values” approved by the Chinese Communist Party. State media have since reported that the National Radio and Television Administration is conducting a nationwide review and will remove unapproved titles by June 1.

Since 2020, Chinese streaming giants and television studios have bet big on dramas that unfold in minutes overtaking slow-burn television among young viewers. In the format’s widespread appeal they also see an opportunity for to dominate global markets, much as ByteDance-owned TikTok did for short videos.

Writers and creators, many already attuned to the “invisible hand” of censorship, are beginning to jump to international production teams, said Oscar Zhou, a media studies lecturer at the University of Kent who is researching the industry.

“Conventional family values is something the government cares about a lot,” Zhou said. “They are trying to use short dramas to promote their own ideological agenda.”

That agenda involves more marriages and many more children as the country faces a demographic crisis that is fast becoming existential.

Since China’s population began to shrink in 2022, officials have stepped up controls on “unhealthy” portrayals of love and marriage in popular culture. At the same time, they have dialed up propaganda to encourage young couples to settle down and get busy having children.

But that effort to spread “positive energy” around marriage and childbearing has repeatedly clashed with the shifting ideals of young Chinese — particularly women — who are tired of government lectures about filial piety and familial responsibility.

The battle over lifestyle choices often plays out in popular culture, leaving officials scrambling to take control of content targeting young audiences using new mediums.

Ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations in February, young people, souring on the annual pilgrimage home for the holiday, flocked to an online game that mimicked “nosy aunts” asking prying questions about your love life. It was a hit — until it was taken down.

A brief window of relative freedom for ultrashort dramas is now closing, too.

The industry’s early days were a freewheeling bonanza of content, as big tech firms poured investment into cheesy and schmaltzy shows in a bid to lure subscribers. Streaming platforms would churn out dramas at such a pace that even China’s well-practiced censors struggled to keep up.

Now, the country’s streaming giants will need to voluntarily censor themselves if they want to keep a slice of the $5 billion industry, analysts said.

After censors warned that the plots of series like “My Husband is a Mama’s Boy” were too “exaggerated” and negative, major Chinese short video platforms like Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, promised to self-police content.

Bilibili, a rival service, announced it had taken down hundreds of shows that “deviated from the mainstream societal values.”

The crackdown is just the latest example of China’s censorship machine evolving to ensure new forms of popular culture remain on Communist Party message.

In addition to licensing requirements brought in last year, the National Television and Radio Administration is developing new systems to streamline the review process so authorities can more easily classify and approve — or reject — content, Chinese state media reported.

Officials also frame the new measures as a way of preventing Big Tech from putting profit above the social good — an obsession of the Chinese leadership that has fueled sweeping regulatory crackdown on industries such as online tutoring, ride hailing and digital payments in recent years.

One state television supervision official lamented that too much profiteering was stopping short dramas from progressing from “substandard” to true art.

“Our judgment is that short dramas are currently merely products going through rapid growth but remain a way off becoming premium works,” the official told state-run Shanghai Securities News, blaming “the widespread pursuit of commercial profit.”

Chinese scientists close in on laser propulsion for superfast, silent submarines

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3259875/chinese-scientists-close-laser-propulsion-superfast-silent-submarines?utm_source=rss_feed

Scientists developing China’s next-generation nuclear submarine technology say they have found a way to significantly improve the efficiency of the laser propellers that could one day drive the underwater vessels.

The researchers said the new technology can produce nearly 70,000 newtons of thrust – almost the force of a commercial jet engine – using 2 megawatts of laser power emitted through the submarine’s coating of optical fibres, each thinner than a human hair – an efficiency previously thought impossible to achieve.

The laser pulses not only generate thrust but also vaporise seawater, creating bubbles all over the submarine’s surface in a phenomenon known as “supercavitation” which can significantly reduce water resistance.

Theoretically, the development could allow a submarine to travel faster than the speed of sound without producing the mechanical noise vibration that usually gives away its location, according to the researchers.

This science fiction-like technology – called “underwater fibre laser-induced plasma detonation wave propulsion” – could have “broad application prospects in areas such as stealth propulsion for submarines”, they said.

The project team is led by Ge Yang, associate professor with the school of mechanical and electronic engineering at Harbin Engineering University in Heilongjiang province, where China’s first submarine was developed.

The leap in technological progress of the PLA Navy’s weaponry and equipment in recent years is closely related to this vast institution, based in northeastern China’s heavy industrial manufacturing centre.

The US government has imposed severe sanctions and blockades on the university’s more than 30,000 students and scientists.

According to a peer-reviewed paper by Ge’s team, published in the Chinese academic journal Acta Optica Sinica last month, the technology pulses a large number of high-powered laser beams around the submarine from various angles.

“This method can also be applied to underwater weapons, causing a supercavitation phenomenon, thereby significantly increasing the underwater range of projectiles, underwater missiles, or torpedoes,” Ge and his colleagues said.

US military ban locks two Chinese universities out of popular software

The possibility of underwater laser propulsion was first proposed by Japanese scientists 20 years ago. The idea is to use lasers to generate plasma in water and then use the detonation wave formed by plasma expansion for propulsion.

Little progress was made as the scientists found it impossible to generate a driving force in a specific direction, because of the way the detonation wave spreads from a single point in all directions.

A number of countries, including China, funded extensive follow-up research, with one promising approach involving loading the force of the detonation wave on to tiny spherical particles made of metal or other materials.

When these particles, known as working media, leave at high speed in a specific direction, they exert an opposite force on the submarine, according to Newton’s law.

However, until now, all efforts have resulted in very low efficiency, with 1 watt of laser power generating only one millionth of a newton of thrust, which has no practical application value.

China creates electric power in its western deserts equal to half that in US

Ge and his team said they have solved the problem, designing a laser engine that improves the efficiency of converting lasers into thrust by three to four orders of magnitude.

Contrary to the general view of the global research community that adding constraining devices would cause significant energy loss, the Chinese scientists added a device similar to a gun barrel to the ends of the fibres.

According to the paper, the researchers solved the problem of energy loss by adjusting the shape and internal structure of the barrel, smoothing the barrel-fibre interface into a U-shape.

They also used a pair of barrels to bombard the working medium particles and added carefully designed protruding structures inside the barrel to reduce the interaction and internal friction between shock waves, the paper said.

Some of the technologies behind the breakthrough originated in the aerospace defence field, where China has developed advanced plasma electric propulsion engines as part of its significant investment in hypersonic weapons research.

According to the paper, this field of research, involving the physical mechanisms of detonation shock waves and propulsion media, provided valuable insights for the design and manufacture of underwater laser propellers.

While a nuclear reactor on a submarine generates more than 150 megawatts of thermal power – enough for the laser propulsion system – there are still many challenges to overcome before the technology can be applied to nuclear submarines, the team said.

These include heat dissipation of the optical fibres, durability in high-power and high-salinity environments, as well as matching optical fibre emission windows with the submarine’s surface anechoic tiles.

The technology would also require significant changes to submarine steering and surfacing control methods, according to the paper.

The researchers said that despite these challenges, this disruptive technology aligns with the current global shift from mechanical transmission to pure electric propulsion in the new industrial revolution.

In addition to potential military applications, underwater laser propulsion could also be applied to improve the efficiency of civilian ships and achieve “green shipping”, Ge’s team said.

Is influx of Chinese students in the Philippines a security threat? Manila starts probe amid ‘sleeper cell’ concerns

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3259896/influx-chinese-students-philippines-security-threat-manila-starts-probe-amid-sleeper-cell-concerns?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines has sent intelligence officers to investigate potential national security threats in the province of Cagayan following a controversial surge in Chinese nationals that lawmakers have warned could be spies.

Jonathan Malaya, assistant director general of the National Security Council, said a team had been dispatched to investigate the situation in the capital of Cagayan, which is located on northern tip of Luzon island facing Taiwan, where about 4,600 Chinese nationals have been recorded to be living and reportedly enrolled in private universities.

“Our intelligence units have been assigned to take a look at the situation there. Is this a case of a national security threat, or is this just a case of people wanting to study in the Philippines?” Malaya said on Saturday.

Government officials had expressed concern about the surge of Chinese nationals enrolled in private universities in Tuguegarao, with congressman Robert Ace Barbers describing it as a “creeping invasion”.

There are three new sites in the region under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a pact with the United States which allows for large-scale joint military exercises. The Philippines on Monday began its annual Balikatan military drills with the US, with more than 16,000 personnel taking part. The exercises, which will also take place near EDCA sites, run until May 8.

On Sunday, Barbers questioned the motives of the Chinese students in enrolling in Cagayan, saying they could be spies or members of sleeper cells sent to gather intelligence.

“Why are they all there in Cagayan close to the EDCA site? Why are there so many enrolling there? Isn’t it that if you want to pursue a master’s degree, you would go to a big university overseas?” Barbers said. “Is there really that much interest to get a master’s degree from the Philippines?”

The lawmaker also cited a raid last week when police captured a 24-year-old Chinese, Haiqiang Su, and two others. High-powered firearms, including a tactical helmet with “CHINA” markings and a Chinese flag, were recovered from the suspects inside a residential subdivision in Taguig City in Metro Manila.

“There’s a possibility that some of them are spies or sleeper cells,” Barbers said.

Last month, representatives Joseph Lara of Cagayan’s third district and Faustino Dy V of Isabela’s sixth district filed a resolution dated March 20 about “an alarming increase” in the number of Chinese citizens, saying they posed a risk to the Philippines’ national security and economy.

But Maila Ting Que, the mayor of Tuguegarao, slammed the accusation, saying the scrutiny on the Chinese students in her city was unfair.

“This is very unfair to all the institutions who worked so hard for the credibility they have now,” she told ABS-CBN news on Sunday.

“We’re very, very disappointed by what has come out. We’ve been fighting so hard to promote educational tourism. Now it’s being eroded, it is being questioned. There is a cloud hanging over us. It’s very painful.”

Ting Que said local officials and residents were upset by insinuations that foreign students were coming to Tuguegarao due to its proximity to EDCA sites, and not for the quality of education on offer.

“We are the regional government centre as well as a centre for educational excellence … We have a 100 per cent passing rate in boarding exams,” she said.

According to Ting Que, the local government has reached out to the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency, which has said “there are no findings” that these students pose threats.

“We denounce what happened in the West Philippine Sea … But let us also remain calm and be very careful of our pronouncements on social media,” she said. “Don’t sensationalise it. Don’t start warmongering or fearmongering because it’s not doing us any good.”

The West Philippine Sea is the name that Manila designates to parts of the South China Sea that are within its exclusive economic zone.

Speaking to This Week in Asia, Rommel Banlaoi, director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, said the issue was based on mere suspicion.

“The influx of Chinese students in Cagayan, in particular, and the whole Philippines, is just small compared with neighbouring Southeast Asian countries, especially in Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia,” Banlaoi said.

The number of Chinese students in Thailand, also a US security ally, reached 20,000 in 2022, according to Banlaoi.

“But the influx is raising concern because of growing Sinophobia in the Philippines caused by the government’s excessive pro-US dealing with China in the West Philippine Sea,” he said.

Philippine universities defend Chinese students on Taiwan-facing province

Social activist Teresita Ang See said the perception of Chinese students as spies stemmed from the “deliberate fanning of Sinophobia and racism by politicians and media”.

“Politicians, opinion makers, our military, and police scramble to ride on the issue without checking the facts,” Ang See said at a forum on Saturday in Quezon City.

“We are allowing ourselves to be drawn into a proxy war between China and the United States. We do not see the Americans giving diplomacy a chance to calm turbulent waters and give room for dialogue and peaceful engagement.”

Ang See said neighbouring countries took measures to entice Chinese tourists and Chinese students who wished to improve their English to better qualify for higher studies outside China.

“We, on the other hand, discourage them from coming by exhibiting blatant racism and racial profiling,” she said.

Chester Cabalza, founding president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, said a similar influx of Chinese students had been noted in Subic, an area “fronting the West Philippine Sea”.

“These are key strategic locations in Luzon,” he said. “So you see the importance of this region. That’s the reason why all of a sudden we are wondering why these Chinese students are entering.”

Cabalza urged higher education institutions in Cagayan to be “more stringent” and transparent in their admission process and adopt the policies of international universities.

Rescuers in China’s Guangdong race to save residents from flooding after heavy rain pummels province

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3259880/rescuers-chinas-guangdong-race-save-residents-flooding-after-heavy-rain-pummels-province?utm_source=rss_feed

Helicopters and rubber boats were deployed as rescuers raced against time to save residents from flooding in south China’s Guangdong province following heavy rainfall.

In the city of Shaoguan in the north of the province, where large areas are flooded and landslides have been reported, rescuers were sent to relocate trapped residents and transport food and other materials, according to Guangzhou-based news site dayoo.com, owned by the Guanghzou Daily.

Over 300 emergency personnel were deployed on Saturday to rescue trapped residents in six villages in the town of Jiangwan. At least six people in the villages were injured, according to online news site The Paper.

Mobile phone and internet services were restored in the town on Sunday after the landslide disrupted telecoms cables.

Another hard-hit city was Qingyuan, where water levels in some areas reached the first floor of buildings on Sunday morning and flooded homes and shops. As of 4pm on Sunday, more than 60,000 residents had been transferred from affected areas, according to Xinhua.

The most seriously affected areas are located along the Bei River, a southern tributary of the Pearl River, which flows from Shaoguan to the Pearl River Delta.

Shaoguan on Monday downgraded the city’s flood emergency response warning to level three in a four-tier alert system in which level one is the most severe.

China issues ‘once in a century’ flood warning for Guangdong’s Bei River zone

The city of Huizhou and provincial capital Guangzhou have also been hit particularly hard, prompting flood alerts and rainstorm warnings for four days in a row. Level two disaster warning alerts remain in place in some localities in the cities.

Over a dozen cities and districts in the southwestern part of the province recorded over 100mm (3.9 inches) of rainfall in the 24 hours from 8am on Sunday.

Provincial authorities warned that water levels in the Bei River were expected to hit “once in a century” levels after another flood earlier this month. They later downgraded the warning, saying water would reach “once in 50 years” levels. As of Monday, they had yet to confirm the level of flooding.

Provincial party secretary Huang Kunming and governor Wang Weizhong on Sunday visited Shaoguan city and held meetings with regional emergency management offices, regional newspaper Nanfang Daily reported.

They also visited the city’s Mengzhou dam along the Bei River and a primary school in Longgui town where residents have been staying since flooding hit their homes.

[World] Bridge collapses as floods hit China's south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68872299The country’s south has been battered by heavy rainfall, with tens of thousands of people evacuated.

Tesla’s closest Chinese rival, Li Auto, slashes prices as EV discount war spreads to premium market

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3259873/teslas-closest-chinese-rival-li-auto-slashes-prices-ev-discount-war-spreads-premium-market?utm_source=rss_feed

Li Auto, Tesla’s nearest rival in mainland China, reduced the price of all its vehicles by up to 5.7 per cent, just a day after the US carmaker offered discounts to local customers amid an escalating discount war.

The Beijing-based company announced on Monday morning that it would cut prices by between 18,000 yuan (US$2,485) and 30,000 yuan as a way of “focusing on customer value”. It said it is determined to keep improving its offerings for Chinese families such as its large vehicles fitted with household appliances.

On Monday, it cut the price of its Li Mega multipurpose minivan by 30,000 yuan, or 5.4 per cent, to 529,800 yuan. Launched in March this year, the fully-electric minivan described by its maker as being essentially a “mobile home” is designed to cater to the travel demands of wealthy families and is fitted with a refrigerator and a sofa.

The Li L7 Max sport-utility vehicle saw the steepest discount in percentage terms, with a price drop of 20,000 yuan, or 5.7 per cent, to 329,800 yuan.

“It is a fresh sign that the electric vehicle (EV) price war has spread to the premium segment now that Tesla and Li Auto, the two leaders, have joined the price competition,” said Eric Han, a senior manager at Suolei, an advisory firm in Shanghai. “Their pricing strategies are detrimental to small and unprofitable rivals whose profit margins will be squeezed further.”

On Sunday, Tesla lowered prices of its Shanghai-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by more than 5 per cent, a move that came hot on the heels of price cuts it made in the US, its biggest market, on Friday.

Tesla is the front runner in China’s premium EV segment, handing more than 600,000 cars to mainland buyers last year, an increase of 37 per cent from 2022.

Last year, Li Auto delivered 376,030 vehicles to mainland Chinese motorists, a jump of 182 per cent over 2022. It trails only Tesla in the premium segment.

Both companies suffered a setback in the first quarter of 2024 as weak sentiment across the entire market dented deliveries.

Tesla’s mainland sales between January and March dropped 3.6 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2023 to 132,420 units.

Li Auto delivered 80,400 units, down 39 per cent from the previous quarter when it sold a record 131,805 vehicles to its domestic customers.

Across the mainland, electric car sales slumped 31 per cent quarter on quarter to 1.76 million units in the three months ending March 31, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

BYD, the world’s bestselling electric-car maker, fired the first salvo in a price war in February, slashing the prices of some budget models to lure young and low-income Chinese drivers.

On February 18, the Shenzhen-based company backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, launched a new version of its plug-in hybrid, the Qin Plus DM-i, with prices starting at 79,800 yuan, 20 per cent below the previous edition.

It has since slashed the prices of nearly all of its cars by 5 to 20 per cent.

Cui Dongshu, general ­secretary of the CPCA, said in February most carmakers were likely to continue offering discounts to retain their market share.

Chinese mother spends savings on tiny flat to escape hectic home, work life twice a week, resonates with many women

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3258488/chinese-mother-spends-savings-tiny-flat-escape-hectic-home-work-life-twice-week-resonates-many-women?utm_source=rss_feed

A mother in China who paid 500,000 yuan (US$69,000) for a 25-square-metre flat as a sanctuary for herself, has attracted empathy on mainland social media.

Gong Yan, in her early 30s, from the city of Changzhou in Jiangsu province, eastern China, is a married mother of one son.

She spent her savings on the little home where she enjoys being alone two days a week, Toutiao News reported.

Gong, who runs a finance company, got the idea of owning her own place during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 when she shared a 130-square-metre flat with her husband, son, and parents-in-law.

During that challenging time, as she catered to the needs of others in the multiple roles of wife, mother and daughter-in-law, it made her think about what she wanted for herself.

She made the decision to create a personal space by spending her savings on a tiny flat in 2021.

“On the day I picked up the key, I sat on a stool in the flat, ordered a takeaway and looked out of the window. I felt very happy,” Gong said.

Although it is only 25 square metres, the flat is equipped with a bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, and storage space that Gong was satisfied with. Later she spent 200,000 yuan (US$28,000) renovating it.

Photos in the report show that the interior is decorated in warm shades of brown, and the main open-plan area is divided into small spaces for work, reading, and leisure.

Gong also enjoys practising yoga and having tea with friends in the flat.

“This is completely my own home. I can just be myself,” she said.

Taking one or two days a week away from her busy work and family life to be in her own space is now part of her routine and has been good for Gong’s mental health.

“In my married life, I can still occasionally enjoy carefree solitude,” she said.

Her decision was supported by her family. Her husband and son, who do not have a key, are welcome by invitation only.

She says spending time alone has given her more energy for her family and work.

“I really like my life now because I’m happy, I can deliver to others,” Gong said.

Inspired by Gong, one of her female friends, who is planning to marry, is also thinking about buying a flat for herself.

The story has resonated with many people on mainland social media.

“It’s a fantastic idea,” one online observer said.

“That is also my plan,” said another.

The problems working women face in China include drastic changes to the socioeconomic environment, financial insecurity, and health issues.

The stresses and strains have resulted in falling marriage and childbirth rates in China.

In October 2021, an official survey showed that 44 per cent of 3,000 unmarried people between 18 and 26 years old who did not want to get married were women, compared with 19 per cent of men.

In September 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that showed mothers in China gave birth to 10.62 million babies in 2021, an 11.5 per cent fall from 2020.

The country’s seventh national census showed that its 2020 fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman – below the replacement level of 2.1 required for a stable population.

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Chinese province of Guangdong braces for historic floods

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/22/china-guangdong-rain-floods/2024-04-22T02:18:17.637Z

Southern China was bracing for historic floods Monday that could wreak havoc across Guangdong, a province that is home to more than 127 million people and is the country’s economic powerhouse.

A key manufacturing and commercial region, Guangdong was pummeled by heavy rain over the weekend, triggering landslides that buried buildings and floods covering cities. Provincial authorities issued 148 rainstorm alerts on Sunday and said the Bei River was expected to reach levels not seen in 50 years.

More than 85,000 people have been evacuated from their homes, authorities said. At least 1.16 million households lost power due to the storms, and more than 1,000 schools were closed on Monday. At least four weather stations in the region on Sunday reported record precipitation for the month of April.

A cross-country race had to be cut short Sunday as runners were temporarily trapped in the woods with floodwaters reaching as high as their waists before being rescued.

Pro-China President Muizzu’s party sweeps Maldives parliamentary elections, preliminary results say

https://apnews.com/article/maldives-election-india-china-muizzu-b14d47c13175e2bd3ec85fafeec2ddd3A woman casts her vote at a polling station in Male, India, Sunday, April 21, 2024. Maldivians are voting in parliamentary elections, in a ballot crucial for President Mohamed Muizzu, whose policies are keenly watched by India and China as they vie for influence in the archipelago nation. (AP Photo/Mohamed Sharuhaan)

2024-04-22T03:37:41Z

MALE, Maldives (AP) — Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu’s political party has swept parliamentary elections in a strong endorsement of his pro-China foreign policy, according to preliminary results reported Monday by local media.

The People’s National Congress won 70 out of 93 seats in Sunday’s vote, and along with three seats secured by its allies has taken absolute control of Parliament, according to the preliminary results.

The Maldivian Democratic Party, led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is seen as pro-India, held 65 seats in the previous Parliament but won only 15 seats, the news site Mihaaru.com reported.

Official results are expected later Monday.

The election was closely watched by regional powers India and China, which are competing for influence in the archipelago nation, which has a strategic location in the Indian Ocean.

Muizzu’s election as president last year sharpened the rivalry between India and China as he took a pro-China stand and acted to remove Indian troops stationed on one of Maldives’ islets.

Sunday’s election was easier than expected for Muizzu, who had been expected to face a tough fight because some of his allies had fallen out and more parties entered the race.

Six political parties and independent groups fielded 368 candidates for the 93 seats in Parliament. The number of seats is six more than in the previous Parliament following adjustments for population growth.

Muizzu ran for president on a campaign theme of “India out,” accusing his predecessor of compromising national sovereignty by giving India too much influence.

At least 75 Indian military personnel were stationed in the Maldives and their known activities were operating two aircraft donated by India and assisting in the rescue of people stranded or faced with calamities at sea. Muizzu has taken steps to have civilians take over those activities.

Relations were strained further when Indian social media activists started a boycott of tourism in Maldives. That was in retaliation for three Maldivian deputy ministers making derogatory statements about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for raising the idea of promoting tourism in Lakshadweep, India’s own string of islands similar to the Maldives.

India has fallen from being the top source of foreign visitors to Maldives to No. 6, according to Maldives government statistics.

Muizzu visited China earlier this year and negotiated an increase in the number of tourists and inbound flights from China.

In 2013, Maldives joined China’s “Belt and Road” initiative meant to build ports and highways to expand trade — and China’s influence — across Asia, Africa and Europe.

How can China remedy deflation risks without ditching long-held economic strategy?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3259696/how-can-china-remedy-deflation-risks-without-ditching-long-held-economic-strategy?utm_source=rss_feed

Persistent risks of deflation and a weakened banking sector may compromise the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy, and such lingering threats could dash hopes for a sustained recovery in trying economic times, according to analysts.

The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to embrace further policy-easing measures to shore up growth. But with low inflation, insufficient demand and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve holding firm on high interest rates, there are growing questions about how far those policy moves can go without significantly changing how Beijing manages the economy.

The International Monetary Fund has warned of risks from overstretched lenders and developers, and it has urged Beijing to find new means of maintaining economic growth, beyond relying on construction and other industrial investments.

China’s banking sector has so far borne the brunt of the debt burden. S&P Global Ratings projected that the non-performing assets ratio for Chinese commercial banks would rise to 5.75 per cent in 2026 from its estimate of 5.55 per cent in 2023.

In rare monetary policy shift, Xi tells China central bank to buy treasury bonds

The estimates mirror the slowdown in China’s real gross domestic product growth, which the US rating agency has projected will slide to 4.6 per cent in 2024 from 5.2 per cent in 2023, according to S&P’s recent research notes.

The US rating agency also expects more restructuring of local government debt at China’s commercial banks, and such moves could weigh on their capital and earnings in the coming months.

The Bank of Guizhou, a significant lender to the local government of Guizhou province, said its non-performing ratio of real estate loans in 2023 saw a year-on-year growth of 20.18 percentage points to 40.39 per cent, according to a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange on March 28.

“Chinese policymakers will probably need to take time to walk it off,” said Yao Wei, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale, referring to the diffusing of China’s debt bombs. “The banks can digest some of the bad debt, but only if they can still make some money.”

The PBOC’s monetary policy committee said in an April 3 statement, following its quarterly meeting on March 29, that it would adhere to the principle of “enriching its monetary policy toolbox”. It touched on plans to guide large banks to play a main role in the “real economy” while encouraging small to medium-sized banks to focus on their “main business”, all while helping banks replenish their capital.

The central bank also added that it was monitoring “changes in long-term yields” and pledged to improve the efficiency of fund use.

Analysts have been warning of a so-called liquidity trap – an economic phenomenon in which consumers and investors hoard cash in bank deposits, fearful of spending or investing, and thus curtailing the impact of a looser monetary policy.

Yang Delong, chief economist at the Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund, suggested that the PBOC could consider buying treasury bonds and local government bonds to boost market confidence.

This type of “new mechanism” could help the economy absorb liquidity while reducing “the idling of funds within financial institutions, thus improving the effectiveness of monetary policy”, Yang said in a commentary published by the Shanghai-based China Chief Economist Forum think tank on April 2.

IMF flags China’s ‘troubled property sector’ in keeping GDP outlook unchanged

Late last month, it was revealed that President Xi Jinping had called on the PBOC during a financial work conference in October to “gradually increase the trading of treasury bonds in its open market operations”. While that has not been done in more than two decades, it sparked speculation about aggressive liquidity boosts from Beijing.

The PBOC is barred by law from purchasing Chinese government bonds in primary markets but has always been allowed to buy and sell such debt in the secondary market.

Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China International, said that more trading of government bonds from the PBOC could improve liquidity in the market because domestic investors tend to hold bonds till maturity, as demonstrated by the record-low yields on long-term Chinese government bonds in recent months.

A combination of low interest rates, poor stock returns and a prolonged property downturn has prompted investors – including some smaller banks – in China to ignore duration risks by snapping up long-term government bonds, plummeting the yields.

Bonds that take longer to mature are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than shorter-term bonds, meaning longer-term bonds will see a greater change to their price – rising when rates fall and falling when rates rise.

The yield on a 30-year Chinese treasury bond is just 2.46 per cent, compared with the 2.26 per cent yield on a 10-year offering.

“China’s implementation of quantitative easing (QE) would require a more radical fiscal policy and a series of technical issues. The current conditions are not mature, and China’s monetary policy is still in a normal space, so there is no need to resort to QE,” Guan said in a commentary last Monday.

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government bonds in the open market to reduce interest rates and increase money supply – a measure aimed at stimulating economic activity.

China’s monetary mix more ‘effective’, economy-focused than West’s easing policy

Rory Green, head of Asia research at GlobalData TS Lombard, said that the PBOC is in a “tricky situation” as it seeks to balance having a stable currency with a looser monetary policy to maintain economic activity and financial stability.

The yuan has been under depreciation pressure against the US dollar following aggressive rate cuts by the US Fed that started in 2022.

“We reckon that the PBOC can maintain divergent policy objectives for the next few months by using quantity/structural easing measures, instead of rate cuts, and combined with capital controls and FX market intervention,” Green said.

The PBOC made two moderate policy rate cuts last year and in January. It also reduced the ratio of reserves that banks must hold, in a bid to boost credit growth.

Lending rates have since fallen, which is more desirable for individuals and businesses wanting to take advantage of low funding costs to meet their borrowing needs.

Unlike many other economies, China has been battling low inflation, with its consumer price index (CPI) growing by only 0.2 per cent in 2023. It means real interest rates are much higher than the central bank’s lending benchmarks.

Interest rate cuts urged for China to hit 5 per cent economic growth in 2022

China’s producer price index (PPI) – which measures the cost of goods at the factory gate – declined in March by 2.8 per cent, year on year, compared with a fall of 2.7 per cent in February.

The PPI-adjusted real lending rate in China could be as high as 6 per cent based on the one-year loan prime rate of 3.45 per cent, and 7 per cent based on the five-year loan prime rate of 3.95 per cent, according to estimates by securities firm CICC on April 9.

Peng Wenshang, chief economist of CICC, said that one way for the PBOC to bring down real interest rates to boost demand is to raise expectations of inflation through the purchase of government bonds. However, the Ministry of Finance also needs to increase the sale of such debt, he said.

So far, Beijing has refrained from aggressive fiscal stimulus measures that significantly increase China’s deficit-to-GDP ratio. Beijing’s 2024 inflation target is 3 per cent.

“In short, without the coordination of fiscal expansion, the central bank’s purchase of government bonds could increase liquidity, but its effect on promoting aggregate demand may be limited,” Peng said in a March speech that was publicised on April 13 by the Beijing-based China Wealth Management 50 Forum think tank.

[World] Pro-China party wins Maldives election by landslide

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68852720

Hong Kong stocks soar after China’s market regulator pledges support for city’s IPOs, connect scheme

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3259843/hong-kong-stocks-soar-after-chinas-market-regulator-pledges-support-citys-ipos-connect-scheme?utm_source=rss_feed

Hong Kong stocks leapt at the open after China’s market regulator unveiled a series of market reforms late on Friday aimed at enhancing the city’s status as a financial hub.

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.54 per cent to 16,473.69 at 10am. The Tech Index rose 1.82 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite Index was flat.

Among the most heavily traded were gaming giant Tencent, which rose 3 per cent to HK$312.80 and insurer AIA, which added 2 per cent to HK$48.15.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on Friday it will facilitate Hong Kong listings by leading Chinese companies and said it will expand the Stock Connect cross-border investment scheme to enhance the city’s status as an international financial centre.

“The central government fully supports Hong Kong’s long-term maintenance of its unique status and advantages,” the CSRC said in an announcement after markets shut on Friday, reiterating President Xi Jinping’s message that “it is necessary to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre”.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3.45 per cent and 3.95 per cent on Monday. Analysts had expected this decision after the stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic data and given the priority on currency stabilisation.

Asian markets were broadly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.55 per cent, Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.95 per cent while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1 per cent.

East Asia joins global military spending surge over China concerns: report

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3259807/east-asia-joins-global-military-spending-surge-over-china-concerns-report?utm_source=rss_feed

Global military expenditure recorded its steepest rise in 15 years amid ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East, while East Asia saw the largest defence spending in a decade – coinciding with tensions over Taiwan, according to a Swedish think tank.

In a report released on Monday, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said military expenditure in East Asia grew by 6.2 per cent in 2023 to reach US$411 billion, the sharpest increase in 10 years.

“Many of its neighbours perceive China’s growing military power as a reason to enhance their own military capabilities,” the institute said in its “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023” report.

Beijing allocated an estimated US$296 billion to the military in 2023, remaining the world’s second-biggest military spender after the United States, which spent US$916 billion.

The funding amounted to a 6 per cent rise in the People’s Liberation Army’s budget, the 29th consecutive year-on-year increase for the PLA.

Sipri’s estimate for China was higher than 1.55 trillion yuan (US$224 billion) the Ministry of Finance said went to the military but the Swedish institute said it included estimates of spending in other categories that Beijing did not classify as military use.

Among those line items was funding for the coastguard and military research and development, which Sipri said accounted for about 8 per cent of the total military budget. Official figures for these categories are not publicly available.

China’s total amounted to 12 per cent of global spending and half of the expenditure in Asia and Oceania, the institute said.

Japan allocated US$50.2 billion to its military in 2023, 11 per cent more than in 2022 – the largest year-on-year increase since 1972.

The budget for 2023 also marked the first year of Japan’s biggest military build-up since the end of World War II, with plans to spend US$310 billion on the armed forces in 2023–27. It is aiming to bolster its counterstrike capacity by investing in aircraft, ships, and long-range missiles.

Taiwan’s military expenditure grew by 11 per cent in 2023 to US$16.6 billion, the steepest increase in the past five years, as the island responded to “the perceived growing threat from Beijing”.

Taiwan created an extrabudgetary fund in 2020 and another in 2022 earmarked for F-16 combat aircraft and naval systems, accounting for 21 per cent of Taiwan’s total military spending in 2023.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s military budget grew by 1.1 per cent to US$47.9 billion while Australia had a 1.5 per cent fall to US$32.3 billion.

The increases mirrored the global rise in military expenditure.

With wars raging in Gaza and Ukraine, total world military spending rose for the ninth consecutive year to an all-time high of US$2.443 trillion, up 6.8 per cent from 2022 and the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009.

The report said 2023 also marked the first year since 2009 when all geographic regions ramped up military spending.

“The unprecedented rise in military spending is a direct response to the global deterioration in peace and security,” said Nan Tian, senior researcher with Sipri’s military expenditure and arms production programme.

“States are prioritising military strength but they risk an action-reaction spiral in the increasingly volatile geopolitical and security landscape.”

BNP Paribas hires 30 to build up new China securities unit

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3259852/bnp-paribas-hires-30-build-new-china-securities-unit?utm_source=rss_feed

BNP Paribas has hired close to 30 people to launch its securities operation in China, re-entering the market after exiting a local joint venture 17 years ago, people familiar with the matter said.

The French bank will initially focus on building out its brokerage, research and asset management units after receiving regulatory approval last week. The firm has opted not to expand its onshore investment-banking business due to the excessive costs and a dismal outlook for deals, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters.

A Hong Kong-based spokesperson declined to comment.

The Paris-based lender is leveraging its European status to slowly expand in China even as some Wall Street firms scale back amid growing US-China tensions. In the past two years, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have all made rounds of job cuts in Hong Kong and China, mostly in their investment-banking businesses as stock underwriting fees dwindle.

BNP, led by Asia Chief Executive Officer Paul Yang since 2020, has instead focused on corporate banking in China, broadening the mix of revenue from financing, transaction banking, cash management and fixed-income sales.

Still, the bank hasn’t entirely abandoned investment banking in China and other parts of Asia. The firm hired Ren Wang, a 20-year industry veteran, in late 2021 to revamp its business. The former Asia President at Jefferies and UBS banker has recruited more than 20 dealmakers, seeking to win business for stock sales and China cross-border mergers.

Schroders, BNP eye product launches in China’s US$18 trillion wealth market

BNP took a bigger slice of the market last year, as its ranking for mergers and acquisitions vaulted to eighth, from 33rd in 2022, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The biggest deals included Zhejiang Geely’s €8 billion (US$8.8 billion) venture with France’s Renault in July. The bank also advised on the US$3.35 billion buyout of Vinda International in December, along with the US$1.66 billion sale of Hollysys Automation to Ascendent Capital.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan also own full control of their securities platform. Morgan Stanley, which currently has 94 per cent in its venture, is opting not to build an onshore brokerage but will focus on building its research, principal trading and futures business on the mainland. UBS was earlier in discussion to boost its holding to 100 per cent of the business, people familiar have said.

[Business] How Chinese firms are using Mexico as a backdoor to the US

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68825118

600 children raised by China monk, known as ‘Papa Wu’, who helps desperate single mothers, turns temple into loving home

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/china-personalities/article/3258595/600-children-raised-china-monk-known-papa-wu-who-helps-desperate-single-mothers-turns-temple-loving?utm_source=rss_feed

A monk in China has rescued 600 abandoned children over a 12-year period, turning his temple into a sanctuary of love.

Since 2012, Wu Bing, 49, from Jiangsu province in eastern China, also known as Monk Daolu, has been providing shelter and assistance to pregnant women and abandoned children who are unable to be cared for.

The children he adopted used to live in the temple but were relocated to a small house in Zhejiang province, also in eastern China, due to the demolition of the place of worship.

The house, known as “Protective Abode”, accommodates more than 50 children ranging from newborns to 10-year-olds, with Wu being their collective “Papa Wu”.

Their mothers are all single women who accidentally became pregnant and are unable to care for their children.

Wu remembered rescuing a woman who had lost both parents and was seven months pregnant. Her boyfriend vanished after deceiving her out of all her money.

Another was a young girl studying abroad who hurried back to China to give birth after accidentally becoming pregnant, keeping it a secret from everyone.

Over the years, Wu has rescued more than 600 pregnant women and their children.

Before becoming a monk, he was a businessman and made a substantial amount of money.

In 2010, he chose to leave everything behind and adopt a religious life.

“The more money I made, the more disgusted I became with the complexities of business,” said Wu.

On one occasion, a female tourist, feeling guilty about a child she had aborted came to the temple for a memorial service and spoke with Wu.

When asked why she had the abortion, the woman said: “I was too young, my parents disagreed with having the child, and I had nowhere to go. Who else could help me?”

Wu also noticed that 90 per cent of the annual temple visits were from women giving blessings for babies they had terminated.

In 2012, he publicly shared his contact information on mainland social media: “For those who are unable to care for their children, we are willing to provide shelter and assistance,” he wrote in a post.

Many helpless pregnant women contacted Wu, and he would take care of everything from prenatal care to delivery, including fees, signing for surgery and waiting outside the operating room.

If the mother is unable to care for the child after birth, Wu will raise the child until they are 18 years old, free of charge.

The “Protective Abode” differs from an orphanage because the children there are not available for adoption.

If the mother later becomes capable of caring for the child, they can be taken back.

Every day, Wu and his volunteers pick up children from school, tell them stories before bedtime, and make crafts and desserts with them at weekends.

Wu also attends every parent-teacher meeting and monitors each child’s exam results.

He also rescues and releases stray animals.

The costs of running the house are mainly covered by donations, with added income from Wu’s Buddhist activities.

Wu’s team also sells vegetarian food and tea on Douyin and has 480,000 followers.

Papa Wu’s story has sparked a heated discussion on mainland social media.

Some critics believe his actions condone young women getting pregnant out of wedlock.

But Wu countered: “If no one does this rescue work, these women and children will be left in dangerous situations.”

Meanwhile, supporters admire him for his actions.

“True love doesn’t require blood ties. Six hundred children now have a warm home,” said one observer on Douyin.

‘Reform and opening up are not dead’, but today’s China ‘looks risky’: veteran observer David Lampton

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3259497/reform-and-opening-are-not-dead-todays-china-looks-risky-veteran-observer-david-lampton?utm_source=rss_feed

For the series of interviews with global opinion leaders, Sylvie Zhuang speaks to David Lampton, former president of US non-profit organisation the National Committee on US-China Relations. Lampton is a professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins-SAIS and author of many books and articles on China. His most recent book is Living US-China Relations: From Cold War to Cold War. Lampton first visited China in 1976 as part of a National Academy of Sciences Group on steroid chemistry and three years later returned with then health, education, and welfare secretary Joseph Califano, when Califano signed the US-China bilateral agreements on health and education.

Read the previous instalment in the series, with James Heimowitz, .

It strikes me that while the name “reform and opening up” has continued, the actual content of reform and opening up is [now] rather different. The scope of the reforms themselves is much narrower and the internal decision-making system more tightly controlled, less collective, and more top down.

The earlier reform was more spontaneous combustion. The world was optimistic and very supportive of China. In the earlier reform stage, when China was small and making big strides, the outside world was patient. China was playing a modest economic and security role globally. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was making big strides, trying to overcome the dysfunction of the Cultural Revolution era.

But now, China is big and the reform-oriented changes are relatively smaller, and the West is much more impatient because what China does greatly affects the outside world. Most dramatically, China’s foreign policy has greater affinity for nations much of the West finds problematic – Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Reform and opening up are not dead, because reform and opening are the nature of this world of security, economic, ecological, and social interconnectivity, and because each generation must find its own way to address the challenges. I think it is appropriate for China to move reforms forward step by step, but my sense is that the current tightness of the political system is likely to continue for the indefinite future.

Deng Xiaoping reflected his personal experience in the Cultural Revolution and earlier experience in Europe, and all this was reflected in the manner in which he promoted his policies. Then, president Jiang Zemin came along and not only reflected his experience in the Soviet Union but also his exposure to Western-style thinking in his youth when he grew up in China’s southeastern city of Yangzhou, one of the most open and economically advanced cities of his era.

President Xi Jinping had his own experience in the Cultural Revolution and that has shaped domestic policy and the current era. Each of those eras has reflected the experience of the top leader and certainly those around him.

Though I never personally met Deng, I had a feel for him conveyed to me by his family members whom I did know. He brought his experiences in the West as a young man to the needs of China in his time. I think his thinking is very relevant to today.

To talk about peaking power means China has reached the top of its power curve and now it’s plateauing or heading downhill, the implication being that the US and like-minded countries and societies will gain in power, relatively. I think that’s a precarious idea. I’m pretty sure it’s not even true, but it certainly is a dangerous assumption if it leads to incautious behaviour by either side.

Well, to put it simply, businessmen are now risk-averse and China looks risky to them, and this is true to some extent of Chinese businesspeople as well.

This is partly because their investments need to be bigger now than before and therefore they are more cautious. But, businesspeople also feel less certain about China’s political direction and the health of its foreign relations.

Also, countries around China have improved their societies and economies, like Vietnam, India and Malaysia. Some of them have lower labour costs and look more stable, presenting more attractive investment options for new, marginal investment.

China’s economy must ‘return to basics’ amid reform push: veteran economist

Also, US-China relations are going downhill, so US investment in China is viewed as riskier, and business wants to diversify its sources of supply. On balance, I would say business is less optimistic and sees significant opportunities for new investment elsewhere.

Economic performance affects the legitimacy of all governments, not just the Chinese Communist Party.

When a US administration has poor economic performance, people begin to lose confidence in that administration. In that sense, China’s Communist Party, as the ruling party, will see its popularity and sense of legitimacy necessarily affected by poor economic performance.

There was a period under presidents Jiang Zemin and then Hu Jintao where the party was not very intrusive with respect to foreign business. But now, the party exerts more control and is more present in foreign enterprises. So what is seen by foreigners is the increasing presence and interference of the party in economic decision-making.

Many in the party are not businesspeople. They are concerned about other things like political stability and foreign subversion, while foreign businesses worry about the party just getting too involved in business decisions. Some business executives feel personal insecurity in contemplating travel to China.

Any individual political leader, like Xi Jinping, may or may not have a succession plan in their own mind – I don’t know what he and those surrounding him may have in mind.

But, for a system to be stable, the population and the broader elite need to know and buy into the succession procedure, and different political groups need to know what the process for succession is. If it isn’t a plan based in a law and in the constitution, when the great leader leaves, the default process is political struggle.

People, abroad or at home, cannot have confidence in the outcome of a power struggle. You may just look at China’s history and look at the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, and it seems to me that you either have law and constitutionalism and transparent mechanisms or you have power struggle.

So if you have to ask whether there is a succession plan, there is no succession plan.

Just saying the Politburo Standing Committee will decide, is not really a succession plan. And the third plenum has not happened yet. Where did the third plenum go? If you don’t know where the third plenum went, you surely don’t know how things are operating.

The world pays attention to the internal stability and predictability of major powers. So as China becomes more important to the world, the world cares more about what happens in the PRC. Big powers have a special obligation to manage their politics in ways the rest of the world finds stabilising and to guarantee orderly succession.

Ironically, the United States now presents its own challenges in this respect, for the first time in more than 160 years.

Addressing this question is necessarily speculative. I’ve had some Chinese tell me that China’s leaders are divided into two blocks – two irreconcilable blocks.

One set of opinions tends to want China to boldly move forward in reform – and not just reform of economics, but also to loosen party control and improve relations along China’s periphery and with the West more broadly. Another big group says that given the hostility of the US, instability in the world, and the economic problems facing China, control needs to be enhanced and national security needs to be the overriding priority. There’s the basic question in Chinese politics: which set of policies promotes stability? I think there’s a division.

Some people think more reform will enhance security. Others think more reform and loosening increases dangers and instability. I think that’s the fundamental question the system is debating.

It appears that the group around Xi Jinping is quite solid in supporting the current policy. However, we know that in recent major international meetings Premier Li Qiang doesn’t seem to be so visible to outsiders.

We observe elite appearances because there’s so little transparency; we pay great attention to who we see, how often we see them, and what they say. We also pay attention when ministers of defence or ministers of foreign affairs just vanish with no explanation. We ask, “Why is that?”

I do not use the word “inevitable”, because I believe in human agency as it relates to policy and politics. But I do believe that the US and China, and their allies and partners, have entered a period reasonably characterised as a cold war – that is not to say [I can forecast] how “cold” it becomes, how long it will last, or what its outcomes may be. There is lots of uncertainty.

In the first Cold War, we had no trade, no students going back and forth, and no tourists, among many other things. So there currently is much more connection in this cold war. But that is misleading if that is all you look at.

The current period is like the first Cold War in several important respects: ideology is becoming important again; the US talks about the struggle between autocracy and democracy as we used to during the first Cold War.

Once you use an ideological vocabulary, you are then in effect saying that you want China to change its system. Well, no country will change its system because somebody else wants them to. The dichotomy between autocracy and democracy is not a good basis for productive US-China relations.

China protests over Biden’s ‘disparaging’ comments likening Xi to ‘dictator’

Once again, alliance behaviours have become important. Washington is building new partnership organisations and China is doing this with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Brics, and the “no limits” partnership with Russia. And most obvious of all are the rapidly growing military spending and arms, cyber, and space races.

I think no government in its right mind would hope for China’s collapse, because that would be a tragedy for the Chinese people and a tragedy for Asia and the whole world. China is a major engine of the global economy and a major determinant of the globe’s ecological future. Just look at the last pandemic, the Covid-19 pandemic. China produced medical devices that the rest of the world couldn’t produce enough of. If China were to collapse, where would all the refugees go?

To predict or seek “collapse” in either of our societies is to contemplate unimaginable costs for ourselves and the world beyond. In this sense “victory” is an illusion.

I think for most people, they would like to see China evolve in a more reform-oriented way and at a faster pace, and also with less closeness to Russia when Moscow is invading its neighbours.

Further, I think China’s neighbours wish for it to become more respectful of their maritime and other boundaries, or at least shelve disputes and curtail claim advancement. I think China wants Washington to act in conformity with its long-standing one-China policy, not drift towards a “one China, one Taiwan” policy. That’s probably the single most important thing. China also would like to see the US and countries along China’s periphery not so closely cooperating militarily.

But the point is, all of these things don’t look very likely to happen any time soon. Xi has seen Putin more than any other major power leader, and the leaders of Japan, Philippines, and the United States just convened in Washington.

I think many of today’s younger China scholars would like to study China more from the inside out, but, frankly, that is becoming less possible. Consequently, China scholars must diversify their methods. Beginning in the late 1970s and the early 80s, China became increasingly open to foreign scholars coming and studying, not only in libraries, but also getting out in the field and talking to people that are not all central government people.

I think we learned a lot and this openness gave China more influence and made people more empathetic to China. We could understand some of the problems China had, and still has.

With the decline of strategic trust and all the talk about spies in both of our countries, it’s become more difficult for foreign scholars, particularly Americans, to do field research in China. Archives like the foreign ministry archive are now not open to foreign scholars, but used to be.

When I was younger, I met most of China’s presidents, chairmen, general secretaries, and premiers. Basically, we had great access. Now, young China scholars want to have that degree of access but they don’t have it. And, I should also say, the US government is similarly restricting Chinese access to our officials for Chinese researchers. So, younger American scholars are relying more on documents, data sets, cyber and remote sensing tools, interviews in third locations, and they increasingly go to Taiwan for language study and research.

The more people experience China from the inside, the better our understanding will be. In the 1950s through the 60s and into the early 70s, most China scholars had to go to Taiwan or Hong Kong because those were the only places where they could even talk to Chinese refugees.

Well, you don’t get a very good picture of a country by talking only to people who left; you also want to talk to people who stayed in [mainland] China. So, China’s current policy is making it harder for outsiders to have an objective view of China.

A country’s hard power is very difficult to judge. Is it measured by how many nuclear bombs it possesses? If we have 1,400 nuclear warheads and China has 500, are we more than twice as powerful as China? If China has more troops than the US, is China more powerful than America?

For example, the US has lots of military power in the vicinity of Taiwan, but the US must project its power over vast distances, far from home. It has basing agreements with neighbours closer to China, but what kind of access may Washington have if conflict arises? So, even in the Taiwan Strait, it’s not all totally clear who’s stronger and who is weaker. Such uncertainties are the soil in which the odds of miscalculation grow.

On soft power – both sides are reducing direct access to each other’s scholars – and media – as mentioned above, with the curtailment being much more severe on the Chinese side than with respect to efforts by Washington.

There still are around 300,000 Chinese students and scholars in the US while there are about 400 Americans studying and researching in China. Chinese language training is, to some extent, moving to Taiwan, though there still are important joint Sino-American programmes and institutions operating in China.

The US media doesn’t have many people in China any more. Some are now reporting on [mainland] China from Taiwan.

I have always felt that a China that opens itself gains in power and influence. I hope both our countries will renew the science and technology umbrella agreement that Deng Xiaoping and president Jimmy Carter signed in 1979.

I believe that it is not possible to, at this moment, predict the outcome of the US general election in November 2024. I do believe that each side in the American contest for the presidency will react and speak with less moderation this year than in non-election years. It, therefore, is important that each side be especially watchful and prudent.

And then there is the fact that Trump, as a personality, brings a degree of unpredictability to decisions unseen in our history. Anybody who hopes for a Trump return must be ready to contemplate very dangerous instability in bilateral relations, not to mention broader American foreign policy.

Poland’s president is latest leader to visit Trump as allies eye possible return

There’s a think tank in Washington called the Heritage Foundation that appears to be empowered by Trump to develop policies for the new administration if he wins. The Foundation has put out a long study (set of recommendations) for Trump to implement in a hypothetical Trump administration.

You don’t need to speculate if he is planning to escalate the trade war with China – he’s talked about raising tariffs across the board by a very high percentage if he is elected.

Also, I think trade conflict and less free trade will happen regardless of who gets elected here – the US is spending tens of billions of dollars to rapidly expand the capability of our silicon ship production to compete with China and its industrial policy subsidies. Likewise, China is deepening its industrial policy and the US is greatly accelerating its own industrial policies. This will continue whether you have Trump or [Joe] Biden.

Having said all this, to those who value a more pacific and constructive future, there are no certainties, but the prospects for improvement would be far greater under a second Biden administration. But, even that road will be bumpy, requiring the wisest and most diligent efforts of both nations.

I think it’s almost always better to talk than not to talk, so I applaud our two presidents speaking to each other. While talk is good, it also is essential to address the sources of distrust. Enhancing confidence also requires concrete and constructive actions by both sides in important areas.

It’s my sense that neither side is willing to address the most important concerns of the other. For instance, will the US be restrained in weapons transfers and foreign military sales and financing to Taipei? Will Washington suddenly start sending high-capacity chips to China? Is Beijing likely to say bye-bye to the “no limits” partnership with Russia, putting military pressure on Taiwan, and purchasing Iranian oil? I don’t think so.

Operative guidance for the relationship for the next year should above all be the doctor’s code – “First, do no harm”.

Beyond that, I would like to see some modest steps such as opening our closed consulates in Houston and Chengdu, restarting the Fulbright Program, and signing a revivified Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement for a full five-year term, not just another six-month extension. Forging more strategically ambitious cooperation, such as working to address the Gaza humanitarian fiasco in the United Nations, would be very helpful.