• [World] Woman severely injured by travelator in China
• ‘China’s nightmare’: how far can Beijing and Moscow go in the fight against Isis-K and the ‘3 evils’?
• Three boys to face trial over child’s murder in case that shocks China
• China’s Xi Jinping calls on Vietnam to deploy ‘political wisdom’ to manage ties
• Shanghai’s data flow centre walks the talk, promises international standards, but China’s foreign firms need ‘faster, wider roll-out’
• Chan Kiu, veteran South China Morning Post photojournalist who captured Hong Kong’s defining moments, dies at 96
• Sweden expels Chinese journalist deemed ‘serious threat to security’
• China ‘gravely concerned’ about reports Japan could join Aukus security pact
• Sri Lanka turns to China for more investment help but move unlikely to strain ‘strong’ ties with India, US
• HSBC summit: idea that China is ‘uninvestible’ is ‘shallow and lazy’, Primavera Capital’s Fred Hu tells panel
• Controversial enlistment of 36 Chinese nationals by Philippine Coast Guard auxiliary unit can be traced to softer past stance on Beijing
• As Janet Yellen decries China’s EV overcapacity, commerce minister calls such accusations ‘groundless’
• Underage marriage of China couple sparks intervention by local officials who reject validity of nuptials
• Japan showing ‘obvious offensive characteristics’ with new Okinawa missile unit, says Chinese military newspaper
• United States will not accept flood of cheap Chinese products, Yellen says
• Chinese scientists question ‘flaw’ in Nasa’s hypersonic aerodynamics software
• China social media stunned by weather-beaten woman, 28, who looks decades older after long hikes but has ‘no appearance anxiety’
• Shimao Group faces winding-up petition from China Construction Bank, signalling developer is in ‘serious debt trouble’
• Armless man in China denied free metro ride without disability pass, calls for more ‘humanised’ rules
• South China Sea: Philippines’ David vs Goliath sovereignty struggle encapsulated – in tiny Thitu Island
• How North African railway is on track to helping China de-risk its iron ore supply
• Hong Kong welcomes Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 for 5-day visit, as city leader John Lee hails ‘historic’ moment for scientific sector
• How to stem terrorist attacks on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
• ‘Fitness centre China’: world champion in development can do more and solve overcapacity problem, top business leader says

[World] Woman severely injured by travelator in China

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68764794

‘China’s nightmare’: how far can Beijing and Moscow go in the fight against Isis-K and the ‘3 evils’?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258237/chinas-nightmare-how-far-can-beijing-and-moscow-go-fight-against-isis-k-and-3-evils?utm_source=rss_feed

Two deadly terror attacks last month – one at a concert hall in a Moscow suburb, and the other a few days later in Pakistan where five Chinese workers died in a suicide bombing – have sounded alarms in Russia and China, both key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.

With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts said they expected Beijing to place greater focus on combating terrorism in the region, catalysing further security cooperation among member states.

The attacks could also draw Russia and China closer as they look to dispel foreign forces that they believed intended to destabilise the region, analysts said.

While counterterrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks would likely “focus attention back onto that challenge”, according to Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia.

The SCO – set up in 2001 by China, Russia and several former Soviet republics to ease border tensions – has traditionally emphasised battling the “three evils” – terrorism, separatism and extremism.

Moscow concert hall attackers first headed for Belarus, not Ukraine: Lukashenko

As the group expanded to include India, Pakistan and most recently Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues like economic cooperation.

The attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, where gunmen opened fire, killing at least 140 people, was the deadliest assault in Russia in two decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, for which Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), an Afghanistan-based affiliate of the militant group Islamic State, has claimed responsibility.

In northwest Pakistan, less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers, the latest in a string of terror attacks in the South Asian country that appeared to target Chinese interests. No claim of responsibility has been made in that attack.

China condemns Pakistan bombing that killed belt and road project workers

Russia, Pakistan and Iran – each a member of the SCO – have now all seen attacks by Isis-K within their borders.

“Officially, anti-terrorism will be the headline theme” of the SCO, said David Arase, resident professor of international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.

“If an actor beyond Central Asia like Russia has been attacked, so could China and its interests in Central Asia be targeted next,” Arase said.

“Isis-K epitomises China’s nightmare, the ‘three evils’ of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism, because [it] seeks an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”

Following the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc might seek to strengthen anti-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or step up intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups like Isis-K, Arase said.

But “amid conflicting interests and abiding distrust” deciding who did what within the organisation could be difficult, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states had increased.

India and China, for instance, still tangle over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s belt and road infrastructure projects. India’s relations with Pakistan also remain strained.

Deadly Moscow attack sparks online debate in China over tighter security net

Thomas Wilkins, associate professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that counterterrorism would be a “major theme” of the SCO and “salient” in its agenda – “at Moscow’s behest”.

The terror attack in Russia perpetrated two of the “three evils” that the SCO was established to tackle, ticking the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, he said.

The SCO already has a regional anti-terrorism structure for information sharing, and resources had been activated in response to the Moscow attacks, Wilkins said.

But even as the SCO seeks to do more to fight terrorism in the region, member states might see little reason to go all out.

Hall, from Griffith University, suggested it was unlikely that member countries would gamble on an “intervention”, such as sending armed police or military contingents into Afghanistan or Pakistan.

“I don’t think either China or Russia has the appetite for risky interventions in Afghanistan or Pakistan, where Isis-K and a range of other militant Islamist groups are based,” he said.

“Such action could lead to a lot more attacks on Chinese and Russian targets in Central Asia and beyond. Neither country really wants to see that – and especially Russia, given the cost of its ongoing war in Ukraine.”

While both Beijing and Moscow had maintained reasonably warm ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the government in Pakistan, Hall said there were no indications that either country would welcome foreign intervention in their internal affairs.

“Perhaps both [China and Russia] could use the SCO to pressure Afghanistan and Pakistan, but the organisation lacks leverage, to be blunt,” Hall said. “What will it use to create that pressure?”

Apart from prompting a response from the SCO, the recent terror attacks could also draw countries within the bloc closer as they pushed back against what they believed to be actions backed by the West, analysts said.

In the case of the terror attack in Moscow last month, Russian officials have accused not only Ukraine, but also the West of involvement, claiming that the United States and British intelligence helped Ukraine organise the assault.

“They are trying to make us think that the terrorist attack was perpetrated not by the Kyiv regime but by followers of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch of [Islamic State],” Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month.

“It is also indicative that the West began insisting on Ukraine’s noninvolvement in the crime as soon as the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall was reported.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping has also, on multiple occasions, urged SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by inciting uprisings.

“We must be highly vigilant against external forces fomenting a ‘new Cold War’ and creating confrontation in the region, and resolutely oppose any country interfering in internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.

Wilkins said that while the SCO was established with the aim of resolving border disputes, it subsequently developed into an institution – led by Moscow and Beijing – to offer security governance in Central Asia, where threats of terrorism exist and could spill over into Russia and China.

Asia’s terrorism surge: Isis-K awakens sleeper cells in deadly strategy shift

“But more than its institutional functions – the SCO serves the purpose of keeping Western powers, such as the US, at arm’s length from Central Asia, and creating a common platform against ‘Western hegemony’,” he said.

“Since its ongoing expansion, it forms a geopolitical bloc covering most of Eastern Eurasia, somewhat in counter to Western Eurasia’s Nato bloc.”

The SCO was formed partly with the aim of preventing “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continued to work closely to minimise such possibilities.

“Moscow and Beijing want security and stability in supporting other authoritarian governments in their Central Asian ‘backyard’,” Wilkins said.

“It is not inconceivable that if a Central Asian government was endangered by a popular uprising or some form of coup, that Moscow and Beijing at least would provide material sustenance to an endangered regime, or even perhaps deploy SCO structures to intervene to prevent it.”

Li Lifan, head of the SCO centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to tackle the “three evils”, adding that the SCO would help deepen cooperation among countries.

“Nowadays, the global security situation is complex, with extremist ideas constantly spreading,” he said. “Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double active period’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s lives and property security.”

After taking over as the rotating chair, China would not only strengthen regional counterterrorism cooperation, but also deal with transnational organised crime and modern technology crimes to “maintain regional and even global peace and stability”, he said.

Three boys to face trial over child’s murder in case that shocks China

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/08/three-minors-to-face-trial-over-childs-in-case-that-shocks-china

China will put three boys on trial for allegedly murdering another child, a provincial prosecutor has said, in a case that has shocked the country and sparked public debate over the treatment of juvenile offenders.

The three suspects, all aged under 14 at the time of the murder, are accused of bullying a 13-year-old middle-school classmate surnamed Wang over a long period before killing him last month in Hebei.

The details of the case, in which the killers reportedly buried Wang’s body in an abandoned greenhouse, drew public attention to how the law deals with juveniles accused of serious crimes.

China lowered its age of criminal responsibility in 2021 from the international norm of 14 to 12 for “special cases” such as inflicting death by “extremely cruel means”.

Wang’s father has called on social media for his son’s killers to “pay with their lives”.

Under Chinese law, murder is punishable by imprisonment or the death penalty, but those under 18 cannot be given the death penalty despite the lowered age of criminal responsibility.

One of the first applications of the lower age limit is in a case from 2022 in which a boy in Gansu, who was 13 at the time, stands accused of murdering his eight-year-old neighbour. The supreme people’s procuratorate, China’s top public prosecutor, approved an application last month to hold the boy criminally responsible if found guilty, but there is yet to be a verdict in the case.

The Gansu and the Hebei case involve “left behind children” – those who are left in the countryside with family members while the parents go to the cities to work. Data from the 2020 census shows that there are nearly 67 million such children, who are at higher risk of mental health problems, criminal behaviour and being bullied.

The provincial prosecutor said on Monday that it had received a police request last month to criminally try the suspects in Hebei, surnamed Zhang, Li and Ma.

It said it had concluded that the three were between 12 and 14 when they “intentionally committed murder, causing the death of the victim Wang”.

“The circumstances were serious and they should be held criminally responsible,” it said, adding that the country’s top public prosecutor had reviewed the decision.

“While handling cases strictly in accordance with the law, the procuratorial organs will ... further strengthen the prevention and treatment of juvenile crimes,” it said.

Agence France-Presse contributed to this report, with additional research by Chi Hui Lin

China’s Xi Jinping calls on Vietnam to deploy ‘political wisdom’ to manage ties

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258267/chinas-xi-jinping-calls-vietnam-deploy-political-wisdom-manage-ties?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged Hanoi to use “political wisdom” in handling ties with Beijing, as the two countries seek to overcome tensions in the South China Sea.

Xi made the call on Monday during a meeting in Beijing with Vuong Dinh Hue, chairman of the National Assembly of Vietnam, who is in China on a six-day visit that started on Sunday.

Hue is the first senior Vietnamese leader to visit China since the effective dismissal last month of the country’s No 2 leader and president, Vo Van Thuong, a trip that analysts said was “highly symbolic” and underlined the special relationship between the socialist neighbours despite their maritime dispute.

China is at odds with various neighbours over its claims to the South China Sea. Just as Hue’s trip got under way, tensions between Beijing and Manila reignited with the Philippines’ participation in a drill with the United States, Japan and Australia. Those manoeuvres coincided with “joint naval and air combat patrols in the South China Sea” by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command.

According to state news agency Xinhua, Xi hailed Beijing’s ties with Hanoi as “comrades-plus-brothers” and said an agreement to build a “community with a shared future” – a commitment made during the Chinese president’s state visit to Vietnam in December – “opened a new chapter” in bilateral relations.

In the face of “profound and complex changes” to the existing world order, “it is in the common interest of China and Vietnam to safeguard the socialist system and maintain national stability and development”, Xi was quoted as telling Hue.

“Both sides should forge a strong sense of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future and with a high level of mutual trust, consolidate [its] foundation … with high-quality cooperation, and promote [its] construction … with a high degree of political wisdom,” he said.

Xi also said the two countries should share experience of party and state governance, push ahead with China’s Belt and Road Initiative and promote people-to-people exchanges among youth and sister cities.

Hue, who was among the four “pillars” of the leadership in Vietnam along with the chief of the Communist Party, the president and the prime minister, was quoted by the Chinese readout as pledging to treat China as his country’s top priority.

According to the Chinese statement, he said Hanoi would stick to an independent and autonomous foreign policy, a code term favoured by Beijing to suggest distancing from the US and its allies.

Zhang Mingliang, a regional affairs specialist at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Hue was accompanied by an entourage of senior Vietnamese officials, underlining the importance both Beijing and Hanoi attached to relations, especially in the midst of escalating regional tensions.

“The visit is part of joint efforts to improve ties, featuring growing exchanges between the two countries, since their relations hit a low point with US President Joe Biden’s visit to Vietnam last year,” he said.

According to Zhang, Beijing seemed to have placed special emphasis on the building of a community with a shared future, an agreement Xi reached with Vietnam’s top leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, last year, with the Chinese readout mentioning it seven times.

He said Xi’s remarks on using political wisdom to deal with bilateral differences were clearly a “pointed message” to Hanoi amid Beijing’s concerns about Vietnam’s warming ties with the US, Japan, Australia and other US allies.

“The visit is also an example of Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ to strike a delicate balance between major powers, against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the South China Sea,” Zhang said.

Those tensions have risen with the quadrilateral military exercises and in the lead-up to this week’s trilateral summit in Washington with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Zhang said.

“Vietnam knows how to deal with China with its pragmatic approach,” he said.

Hue’s visit followed Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in the southern Chinese region of Guangxi last week and a trip to China last month by Le Hoai Trung, the head of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s external relations department.

In an interview published on Sunday by Vietnam’s official news agency VNA, Chinese ambassador to Hanoi Xiong Bo admitted that “both opportunities and challenges exist” in bilateral ties.

“There cannot be opportunities without challenges. I think the most outstanding feature of China-Vietnam relations is that opportunities outweigh challenges by far, and through the efforts of both sides, some challenges can be effectively managed and transformed into opportunities for cooperation under certain conditions,” Xiong was quoted as saying.

Xiong also said both sides basically achieved the goal of “better management and control of differences” during Xi’s Hanoi visit, an achievement that was “extremely rare”.

Vietnam political star’s downfall shocks nation: ‘who will be next president?’

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin expressed concerns on March 11 about Vietnam’s elevation of ties with Australia during a visit by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia and a Southeast Asia specialist, said Wang’s comments were “a sign that tensions have arisen in the South China Sea after Xi’s visit”.

Thayer noted Hanoi “has been more critical of China in recent public statements” following the rising tensions between Beijing and Manila.

On March 9, following a clash between China and the Philippines near the contested Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as Renai Jiao, Vietnamese foreign ministry spokeswoman Pham Thu Hang said on March 9 that “Vietnam is deeply concerned about the recent tension in the East Sea that may affect peace, security and stability in the waters”.

The South China Sea is known as the East Sea in Vietnam.

Shanghai’s data flow centre walks the talk, promises international standards, but China’s foreign firms need ‘faster, wider roll-out’

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3258242/shanghais-data-flow-centre-walks-talk-promises-international-standards-chinas-foreign-firms-need?utm_source=rss_feed

In a step towards freer cross-border data flows and to address the concerns of foreign businesses, Shanghai inaugurated a major data flow service centre in the Lingang free-trade zone on Sunday, with pledges to adopt internationally recognised standards.

The centre will seek data cooperation agreements with Singapore and New Zealand, as well as countries involved in Brics economic cooperation bloc and Beijing’s signature Belt and Road Initiative, with applications including electronic invoices and proof of payments, blockchain and digital identity mutual recognition.

On top of aligning with international practices, additional data flow scenarios are being trialled in Lingang, including “easier access” to overseas websites for foreigners who have checked into a designated hotel, as well as streamlined data exchanges for healthcare companies without the need to share raw data or sensitive personal information, according to the Jiefang Daily newspaper.

“It will explore ways to elevate services to match standards set out in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA),” Ding Rui, the centre’s director, told the newspaper, which is the official daily newspaper of the Shanghai committee of the Communist Party.

China’s Asia-Pacific trade deal, digital economy pact bids backed by New Zealand

The centre is the first of its kind set up by Shanghai’s cyberspace administration to help entities navigate requirements for compliance at “minimal costs and time,” Ding added.

However, the vetting power would be held by the cyberspace watchdog, and the centre could only advise businesses and submit applications on their behalf.

China’s onerous, opaque data security structures that limit or prohibit outbound data transfers are perennial challenges facing foreign businesses.

Beijing has been pushed to loosen the shackles to balance security with business demands in its latest charm offensive to reassure and retain foreign firms amid a slump in foreign investment and an exodus of existing firms.

In recent weeks, President Xi Jinping and other leaders have received foreign business delegations, sending the clearest message yet that the world’s second-largest economy is open for business and working to address concerns and complaints.

Having incorporated feedback from a public consultation, the Cyberspace Administration of China published the long-awaited rules on facilitating and standardising cross-border data flows in March, with some relaxations including exemptions for certain scenarios and the flexibility for areas like Lingang to publish negative lists to simplify procedures.

And the new centre in Lingang is set to be at the forefront of data classification and formulation of lists and protocols to handle important data.

“Gradual relaxation is a welcome move, walking the talk of Beijing’s pro-business rhetoric, but foreign firms want implementation details and faster, wider roll-out,” said Yan Shaohua, an international studies researcher at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“They want to see how the Lingang centre will benchmark services against CPTPP and DEPA standards.”

Tesla, Porsche chip in as Shanghai allays cross-border data flow ‘sore point’

The high-level CPTPP Asia-Pacific trade deal includes binding provisions restricting data localisation and imposing requirements on cross-border transfer.

It also prohibits a member from requiring a business to use or locate computing facilities in the territory as a condition for conducting business.

China has applied to join the CPTPP and DEPA, but clauses concerning data transfer and the location of computing facilities have been flagged as the most problematic areas, said Zhao Jingwu, a law professor at Beihang University in Beijing, said in a report.

Fudan’s Yan added his survey of European companies in Shanghai found many were unsure if widely-deployed workarounds for easier data transfer and access, like the use of VPNs to circumvent China’s Great Firewall, would attract fines or punishments.

“If the hotel room scenario for expats to access foreign websites is allowed, can the trial be expanded to workplaces?” asked Yan.

A 2023 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai showed 70 per cent of the 325 respondents labelled data transfer and processing restrictions, and other cybersecurity requirements, as a hindrance to business and the top regulatory challenge.

“China’s ill-defined digital and data security laws mean uncertainty for years, with significant confusion around interpretation and enforcement remain. Companies have been frustrated by the resultant operational inefficiencies and compliance costs,” the report said.

Shanghai, though, hopes the centre in Lingang can take the lead in experimenting with data flows for industries, including biomedicine, intelligent connected vehicles and financial management, as well as shipping and trade.

In January, Lingang announced a plan for a three-tiered regulation regime, with Tesla and Porsche’s China sales arm among the foreign businesses asked for their opinions.

Chan Kiu, veteran South China Morning Post photojournalist who captured Hong Kong’s defining moments, dies at 96

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/3258272/chan-kiu-veteran-south-china-morning-post-photojournalist-who-captured-hong-kongs-defining-moments?utm_source=rss_feed

Chan Kiu, a veteran photojournalist who captured some of Hong Kong’s watershed moments for the South China Morning Post, has died at the age of 96.

Chan, who had 40,000 rolls of film to his name, died peacefully on Saturday in the company of his loved ones at a hospital in Vancouver, Canada.

The photojournalist captured for the Post major events in the city such as the 1967 riots, superstar Bruce Lee’s funeral and Britain’s Queen Elizabeth’s first visit to Hong Kong.

His daughter Theresa Chan Lai-kuen said on Monday that her father was remembered as a staunch professional who was “always persistent, punctual and well prepared”.

“He made it a habit to arrive for interviews early – sometimes by up to two hours in advance,” she told the Post in a phone interview.

He was also a role model who demanded the best performance from himself, Chan added.

Chan joined the Post in 1959 and remained there for 28 years until his retirement.

The industry legend had shared that his favourite assignments were those that carried an element of danger, such as the riots that gripped Hong Kong for nearly a year in 1967.

British colonial misrule and radicalisation from China’s Cultural Revolution spilled over, converging with labour unrest in May 1967 agitated by the Communist Party members in Hong Kong.

Eight months of rioting and bombings followed, resulting in 51 deaths and more than 800 injured.

In an interview back in 2018, Chan recalled being surrounded by rioters who assaulted him and attempted to destroy his camera, until a protest leader intervened, acknowledging his role as a journalist.

That period marked the most perilous phase of his career, where he dodged projectiles and navigated treacherous conditions.

But the veteran photojournalist had a soft spot for folk stories too, with his daughter Theresa Chan revealing one of his favourites was the tale of British soldier Tony Caller and his Chinese partner, Dorothy So Yun-mai.

He first captured the pair in a sentimental 1961 photo, where Caller is seen bidding farewell to So on the wharf at Tsim Sha Tsui. The caption published then read: “Tony Caller of 32 Medium Regiment RA says his last goodbyes to pretty Miss So Yun-mai, just before the UK-bound troopship Nevasa sets sail.”

The couple later got married and started a family in Britain, reuniting with Chan again nearly two decades later. He even snapped their photo at the same spot for their 25th anniversary.

He won more than 30 awards in Hong Kong and abroad throughout his career, and was the first local press photographer to be awarded the Badge of Honour by Queen Elizabeth for his service and contribution to the Hong Kong media industry in 1985.

Chan also snapped her photos when she visited the city with Prince Philip for the first time in 1975.

Chan immigrated to Canada in 1993, where he “enjoyed life, did volunteer work, and continued to impart his expertise to the next generation of news workers,” according to his family.

“He was especially involved with the Chinese diaspora community,” his daughter said.

Born in Hong Kong in 1927 to a working class family, it was not until the early 1950s that Chan decided his life should be “a little more spicy”. He turned to photography. It was also about this time he got married, in 1952.

Known in Hong Kong’s media circles as “Uncle Kiu”, Chan remained modest about his achievements despite his long years in the industry, telling the Post in a 2018 interview that he was “just an ordinary news photographer”.

“It just so happened that I was sent by the editor to cover the news events,” said the silver-haired, svelte veteran photographer, who was by that time 91 years old.

“You wouldn’t have time to think about recording history at the time when you pressed the shutter button. They were just history caught in a hurry.”

Chan is survived by his seven children, seven grandchildren and two great-grandchildren, most of whom also live in Vancouver.

Sweden expels Chinese journalist deemed ‘serious threat to security’

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3258270/sweden-expels-chinese-journalist-deemed-serious-threat-security?utm_source=rss_feed

Sweden has expelled a Chinese journalist who has been categorised by the authorities as a “serious threat to security.”

The Swedish media outlets Göteborgs-Posten and SVT both reported the expulsion on Monday.

The journalist was said to have been in close contact with Chinese diplomats in Sweden for several years. SVT reported she was named last year in a report by a think tank about Chinese foreign media with close links to the Chinese Communist Party and pro-Chinese “lobbying.”

Ex-Swedish China envoy on trial over talks to free bookseller Gui Minhai

The media outlets reported that the unnamed 57-year-old woman came to Sweden almost 20 years ago, where she is said to have married a Swedish man. She is reported to have been in close contact with the Chinese embassy and organised trips by Chinese delegations to Sweden.

She has been held in custody since October 2023, according to the reports. The Swedish Migration Agency then decided to deport the woman. She appealed the decision, but it was rejected by a Swedish court.

Göteborgs-Posten and SVT reported that the Swedish government decided last Thursday to deport the journalist permanently and for life. According to her lawyer, the Chinese woman denies posing a threat to Sweden’s national security.

Her lawyer, Leutrim Kadriu, told SVT the woman doesn’t believe she poses a threat to Sweden.

“It is difficult for me to go into exact details given that much is shrouded in secrecy, as this is a national security matter,” Kadriu told the broadcaster.

In neighbouring Norway, broadcaster NRK said the journalist had also reported from there, and from other Nordic countries including Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

Relations between Stockholm and Beijing have been tense for years.

In 2020, a court in eastern China sentenced Chinese-born Swedish national Gui Minhai to 10 years in prison for selling books that were critical of the ruling Communist Party. He was charged with “illegally providing intelligence overseas.”

Ex-Swedish China envoy cleared in jailed bookseller Gui Minhai case

China has rebuked Sweden’s demands for Gui’s release.

He first disappeared in 2015, when he was believed to have been abducted by Chinese agents from his seaside home in Thailand.

The case led to an investigation of Sweden’s ambassador to China over a meeting she arranged between Gui’s daughter and two Chinese businessmen whom the daughter said threatened her father. The ambassador, Anna Lindstedt, was eventually cleared.

In 2018, a Swedish court found a man guilty of spying for China by gathering information on Tibetans who had fled to Sweden. Dorjee Gyantsan, a Tibetan who worked for a pro-Tibetan radio station, was found guilty of “gross illegal intelligence activity” and sentenced to 22 months in jail.

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China ‘gravely concerned’ about reports Japan could join Aukus security pact

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258265/china-gravely-concerned-about-reports-japan-could-join-aukus-security-pact?utm_source=rss_feed

China on Monday said it was “gravely concerned” about reports that Japan could soon join the Aukus security pact amid a push for its inclusion by the United States.

The move “disregards the risk of nuclear proliferation” and would “intensify the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region and disrupt regional peace and stability”, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a daily press briefing.

The US, Britain and Australia were set to announce talks on Monday about bringing new members into the defence alliance, as Washington pushes for Japan to be involved as a deterrent against China, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

Mao said Beijing “opposes the formation of exclusive ‘small circles’ and the creation of bloc confrontation”.

“Japan, in particular, should deeply learn from historical lessons and exercise caution in military security,” she said.

Formed in 2021, Aukus is a military technology partnership aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. China has called the pact dangerous and warned it could spur a regional arms race.

The three Aukus defence ministers will announce on Monday that they will launch talks related to Pillar II of the pact, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the situation.

Pillar II commits the members to collaborate on military technologies including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and undersea capabilities.

The report said they would not expand the first pillar, which focuses on Australia’s procurement of nuclear-powered submarines.

US President Joe Biden has been seeking to strengthen partnerships with allies in Asia including Japan and the Philippines amid a rapid military build-up by China and its growing assertiveness in the region.

Japan is seen as a natural candidate to join the Aukus alliance since it is the critical ally in Asia for each member.

Biden and Kishida to announce ‘historic’ US-Japan agreement: envoy

The US is expected to discuss Japan’s involvement in the pact when Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on Wednesday.

Washington and Tokyo are also set to announce that they are planning the biggest upgrade to their security alliance since 1960, according to the FT report.

The report came after Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Tokyo, wrote in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal last Wednesday that Japan was “about to become the first additional Pillar II partner”.

His comment was quietly welcomed by some in the US government hoping it might accelerate the push for Japan to join Aukus, but with no agreement yet it irked others in Washington, as well as in London, Canberra and Tokyo, according to the FT report.

Washington is also hosting the first-ever US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit on Thursday.

Sri Lanka turns to China for more investment help but move unlikely to strain ‘strong’ ties with India, US

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3258227/sri-lanka-turns-china-more-investment-help-move-unlikely-strain-strong-ties-india-us?utm_source=rss_feed

Sri Lanka has limited options but to turn to China for help in financing massive infrastructural projects, but the move is not expected to become a debt trap for the island nor affect its relations with India and the United States.

While Chinese investments in the past are said to have made Sri Lanka “fiscally more vulnerable”, forthcoming Chinese funds pouring into the island would not be debt-funded but likely be in the form of equity investment by Chinese enterprises, according to experts.

On March 27, after talks with Beijing, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena said China had pledged to develop the Colombo International Airport and Hambantota port.

In a joint statement issued on March 29, China’s foreign ministry said the two countries agreed to “make every effort to promote the Port City Colombo and Hambantota Development Project, turning them into flagship projects”.

The southern seaport of Hambantota was handed to a Chinese state-owned company in 2017 on a 99-year lease for US$1.12 billion, sparking security concerns from Beijing’s regional rival India.

Gunawardena added that China would assist Sri Lanka’s restructuring of external debt, a key condition to maintaining a US$2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Chinese statement said Beijing was willing to “continue supporting its financial institutions to actively negotiate with Sri Lanka”, as well as “play a positive role in the IMF, and assist Sri Lanka in financial relief”.

China is the largest bilateral creditor of Sri Lanka, which declared bankruptcy in 2022 and suspended repayments on some US$83 billion in local and foreign loans after it ran out of foreign reserves.

International relations analyst Shakthi De Silva said Sri Lanka turned to China as Beijing had been its main development partner in both projects.

“Given Sri Lanka’s prevailing economic situation, its ability to acquire foreign economic support for the development of both projects is limited,” he said.

While the economic situation in Sri Lanka has started to gradually improve following its worst economic crisis two years ago, according to the IMF last month, Sri Lankans are said to have lost buying power due to high taxes and currency devaluation.

Unemployment also remains high, as industries that collapsed at the height of the crisis have not yet resumed operations.

While India and Western countries have expressed concerns about China’s presence in Hambantota for years, De Silva said the latest move was unlikely to strain the island’s ties with New Delhi or Washington.

Chinese research vessels have previously docked at Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka, raising India’s concerns about Beijing’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean.

De Silva noted that the US had in February said it would give the Sri Lanka Navy a fourth coastguard cutter – to be used for maritime operations and law enforcement missions – and in November pledged to invest US$553 million to build a new container terminal in Colombo.

“Ties with India are similarly strong, the island should therefore be able to assuage any concerns both states may have,” De Silva said.

During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, India provided economic and humanitarian assistance of over US$4.5 billion and supported Colombo’s debt-restructuring efforts. India has also invested in the island’s energy and oil refinery projects.

Could Sri Lanka’s trade deal with Thailand help its crisis-stricken economy?

Neil DeVotta, politics and international affairs professor at Wake Forest University in the US, said the offer to further develop the Hambantota Port was part of nine bilateral agreements and could be viewed as a development package.

But since no details on the signed memorandums of understanding were provided, DeVotta said it was unclear if the move was a “win-win investment” or whether it would be more “aligned with Chinese strategic interests at the expense of Sri Lanka”.

“Unfortunately, the construction of the Hambantota Port is yet to benefit people in that region even as it has made Sri Lanka fiscally more vulnerable,” DeVotta said.

The southern seaport of Hambantota was launched by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, in power for a decade until 2015, who reportedly borrowed heavily from Beijing for projects that many criticised as a debt trap that led to the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history.

Poverty in the nation doubled between 2021 and 2022, climbing from 13 to 25 per cent, while urban poverty tripled from 5 to 15 per cent, according to the World Bank.

However, analyst De Silva said allegations of a Chinese debt trap were “put to rest” several years ago.

Noting that the island defaulted in 2022 on its US$46 billion of foreign debt and that a sizeable portion of this was to China, De Silva said accusations that Colombo gave a 99- year lease on the port due to “Chinese coercion or because Sri Lanka was cornered to accept the deal by China has been proven false”.

Citing an IMF report, he noted that as of December 2022, the government owed US$1.633 billion to International Sovereign Bond (ISB) holders, US$338 million to China Development Bank, and US$7 million to other foreign commercial creditors.

Studies done on Sri Lanka’s debt have shown that repayments on dollar-denominated ISBs or Eurobonds borrowed from international capital markets “were more than twice the share of debt to China”, De Silva said.

“Sri Lanka was therefore in a debt trap of its own doing,” De Silva said, adding that Colombo might be reluctant to absorb further loans for developmental projects “if the terms are onerous to the island”, especially in the short to medium term.

“Foreign leaders will also be reluctant to pile onto Sri Lanka’s debt given its fragile economic situation and the potential backlash this may arouse,” De Silva added.

Toshiro Nishizawa, professor at The University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy, said Chinese assistance to the airport and port would not be debt-funded but likely be in the form of equity investment by Chinese enterprises with limited government engagement.

An equity investment is money that is invested in a company by purchasing shares of that company in the stock market.

“Therefore, the Chinese proposal is unlikely to result in further debt issues for Colombo,” Nishizawa said.

HSBC summit: idea that China is ‘uninvestible’ is ‘shallow and lazy’, Primavera Capital’s Fred Hu tells panel

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3258262/hsbc-summit-idea-china-uninvestible-shallow-and-lazy-primavera-capitals-fred-hu-tells-panel?utm_source=rss_feed

The future of China’s economic growth depends on strong innovation in the technology sector and – despite the current headwinds – investors would be wrong to sleep on the country’s potential, industry leaders said at the HSBC Global Investor Summit in Hong Kong on Monday.

“The idea that China is ‘uninvestible’ is so hyperbolic psychologically, it is not just healthy scepticism but it is cynicism,” said Fred Hu, the founder, chairman and CEO of Chinese investment firm Primavera Capital Group.

“I would say this is intellectually just shallow and lazy.”

The world’s second-largest economy is still the single-biggest contributor to global gross domestic product growth, and the size and scale of its industries is still huge, he told a panel called “The new China playbook, China by numbers”.

“Any global investor who seeks to build a globally diversified portfolio, how could you ignore China? There is just no other way,” Hu said.

“All of this pessimism about China is not justified by on-the-ground facts.”

HSBC, Hong Kong’s biggest commercial bank, is hosting the city’s largest investment conference this week, having taken over from Credit Suisse, which held its last flagship investment conference in March 2023 before its demise and subsequent takeover by rival UBS Group.

More than 2,500 market professionals and 300 corporate executives have gathered to discuss top issues challenging the industry and the world.

Hong Kong remains in the business of thriving and is not about to change, government officials including Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said in their keynote speeches during the summit on Monday.

The new China playbook will be about focusing on strategic emerging sectors and developing an edge, Keyu Jin, an economist at the London School of Economics, said during the panel.

China is clearly focusing on technological innovation such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, technologies that will shape the future, Jin said. These areas provide “a high-return, high-risk model with lots of uncertainties, and China’s going after that”, she added.

“[China] is moving away from industrial policies which focused on midstream infrastructure and downstream applications in the past,” Jin said. In the short term, China’s technological innovations will not replace the real estate market in terms of the aggregate number of jobs it contributes, she said. Beijing still needs to figure out a way to implement policies strategically, to address the problems it is currently facing, Jin added.

HKEX eyes Saudi, Indonesian companies to win more IPOs from emerging markets

Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute who also spoke during the panel, said China’s private sector has a history of producing forward-thinking innovations and has a high level of productivity.

“If you want to go towards a more innovation-driven economy, you have to allow the private sector to play a greater role,” Lardy said.

Despite headwinds, there remain clear opportunities in China, the panel heard.

China has faced “incredible complexity, uncertainties and risks” in recent years, including its rigid zero-Covid policies, a technology sector crackdown and the property downturn, Primavera’s Hu said. But at the end of the day, investors must “understand the uncertainty and the cyclical risk-adjusted returns”.

“China has tremendous potential as an innovative house, next to the United States,” said Hu.

“I am optimistic – China has proven that it has been able to change from copycat to become an innovator within two decades.”

Controversial enlistment of 36 Chinese nationals by Philippine Coast Guard auxiliary unit can be traced to softer past stance on Beijing

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3258230/controversial-enlistment-36-chinese-nationals-philippine-coast-guard-auxiliary-unit-can-be-traced?utm_source=rss_feed

A revelation by the Philippine Coast Guard that its auxiliary unit contains 36 Chinese nationals on its active roster of civilian volunteers has aroused suspicions of spying amid maritime tensions between Manila and Beijing.

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan last month told lawmakers he had already “delisted” the individuals in question and that they posed no national security threat to the Philippine Coast Guard Auxiliary (PCGA), but irate congressmen had demanded for “treasonous” heads to roll.

The unit is said to be the “secret weapon” of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), which is often involved in dodging Chinese vessels to resupply a military outpost in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.

Observers and individuals familiar with the matter told This Week in Asia that uneven recruitment rules, possibly self-interest in boat ownership and past changes in foreign policy on China could have enabled the Chinese nationals to enter the PCGA.

Gavan, who assumed his post last October, earlier said at the March 20 hearing: “We did conduct an investigation. We went through intelligence and national security agencies of the [government], and we have delisted 36 of them.

“We did check on their compliance and standards set [for them], and we found out that they did not comply, so we initiated their delisting. They are now delisted.”

Gavan said volunteers were accepted into the PCGA “provided that they have secured national security clearance”.

Congressman Robert “Ace” Barbers, however, remained concerned as he pointed out at the same hearing: “Are foreigners like the Chinese, especially the Chinese, allowed to become members of the auxiliary force of our coastguard?

“These Chinese served as auxiliary members of our coastguard for two, three years … They may be performing spying duties in the guise of being auxiliary force members.”

The tiny island that embodies Manila’s David vs Goliath South China Sea struggle

A source in the maritime industry, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told This Week in Asia the PCGA had existed as far back as 50 years ago under the rule of Ferdinand Marcos Snr. At the time, he said, Filipino and foreign yacht owners found it hard to register their yachts locally because the rules were the same for such vessels and for 20,000-tonne tankers.

“In other words, it would probably cost more than what you paid for the yacht to register. You also had to pay duties and taxes.”

The source said this was why boat owners would register with the PCGA “because then they could paint a number on their boat that warned the Coast Guard they were a member of the auxiliary”.

It was simply to prevent extortion, the source said, while also accusing the PCG of being “corrupt” and having recruited former police officers who had been terminated by the force.

The source said there was speculation in the maritime industry that those who joined the PCGA could “basically buy their admiralty rank for a fee”, but added the donations went to the new recruit’s squadron to fund its programmes.

PCG spokesman Rear Admiral Armand Balilo said the PCG had in 2018 publicly disowned an individual who was recruiting members for money. However, he said it was “not true” that dismissed policemen were being hired, adding it was his first time hearing such allegations of dismissed officers on the roster.

In 2019, according to a news release, then PCG commandant Joel Garcia swore in 110 former policemen and soldiers who had been “separated with honour”.

Today, the PCG has a dual function. It is an armed and uniformed civilian agency whose commandant reports directly to the Department of Transportation and Communications secretary in peace time and to the defence secretary in wartime.

In 2009, the Coast Guard Law was revised and for the first time, it recognised the role of the PCGA as “a civilian volunteer organisation under the direct control and supervision of the PCG Commandant”.

Among its functions were to “assist the PCG in the promotion of safety of life and property at sea. The preservation of the marine environment and its resources, the conduct of maritime search and rescue, the maintenance of aids to navigation and such other activities that enhance maritime community relations which include civic action”.

Balilo told This Week in Asia a number of foreigners had long been members of the PCGA, “some more than 20 years”.

He recalled that the Chinese volunteers had been recommended for membership by Filipino-Chinese businessmen, and they had joined the PCGA Executive Squadron and Civil Relation Service Special Support Squadron. Based on its Meta page, the Executive Squadron appears to consist of prominent personalities who include politicians and government officials.

“The [Chinese] submitted police clearance, National Bureau of Investigation [clearance], and I think passports showing [Bureau of Immigration] clearance.”

He stressed that “their participation was limited to civic action like donation for relief goods and medical missions. They have no participation in any PCG operations and neither were they given access to the restricted areas in the [PCG] headquarters”.

However, when new PCG Commandant Gavan imposed an additional requirement for national security clearance, the mainlanders were apparently unable to submit that.

“We are very strict insofar as security is concerned,” Balilo said.

Balilo said on March 21 that no PCGA member was involved in the four hacking incidents that affected the PCG’s social media pages on Meta and X, with the latest incident occurring on March 29. He also said there was “no strong basis” to accuse them of spying.

Balilo placed the number of PCGA at around 20,000 volunteers now consisting of businessmen, government officials, youth and fishermen.

“People who actually own boats are in the minority” in the PCGA, noted businessman Rafal “Apa” Ongpin, former president of the Manila Boat Club.

Ongpin, however, saw no problem with foreigners, including Chinese nationals, joining the PCGA. “There’s no problem with that. It’s a civic organisation, they do charity drives. It’s no different from a rotary club.”

The entry of more Chinese nationals into the PCGA could also be traced to former president Rodrigo Duterte’s pivot to China.

During Duterte’s state visit to Beijing in 2016, he had committed to President Xi Jinping “to enhance cooperation between their respective coastguards”. Both had signed a memorandum of understanding on the establishment of a Joint Coast Guard Committee to “further deepen cooperation by conducting port visits, joint exercises, personnel exchange and training, and utilisation of hotline communication”.

Two subsequent meetings of the joint committee produced two proposals – to put up a direct hotline between the two coastguards and for Manila to send a coastguard attaché to Beijing.

However, then Philippine foreign secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr rejected the notion in 2020 with a warning that “a separate coastguard attaché means we concede exclusive sovereignty over our coastal waters so they are now subject to discussion instead of automatic protest”.

As Janet Yellen decries China’s EV overcapacity, commerce minister calls such accusations ‘groundless’

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3258240/janet-yellen-decries-chinas-ev-overcapacity-commerce-minister-calls-such-accusations-groundless?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s commerce minister has embarked on a trip to Europe with an eye on preventing his country’s electric vehicle exports from resulting in orchestrated trade actions by Washington and Brussels.

On Sunday, Wang Wentao highlighted the country’s contribution to the world’s green energy transition and the war on climate change, during round-table discussions with more than 10 Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles and lithium batteries in Paris.

“China’s electric-vehicle companies are competitive due to the innovation of technology and comprehensiveness of its supply-chain network,” the official Xinhua quoted Wang as saying during the meeting, while denying that government subsidies had played a role in the industry’s rapid development.

“The accusations from the US and EU about China’s overcapacity are groundless.”

His remarks follow an anti-subsidy probe that Brussels launched into Chinese electric vehicles in October, as well as a request last month that those vehicles be registered with customs authorities in the European Union, with the bloc looking to apply retroactive tariffs.

China’s overcapacity, exports in the cross hairs as Janet Yellen gets to work

“The Chinese government will fully support and defend the rights of the industry, because our electric vehicle development has made important contributions in the process of the world’s green transitioning,” Wang reportedly told the Chinese firms, without elaborating.

He also told producers to enhance risk management in their overseas business expansion and to deepen cooperation with local partners.

EVs and related concerns regarding overcapacity in their production have become an outsized issue challenging China’s relations with its two major export destinations. US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen is visiting China to apply pressure targeting the overcapacity of its EVs, solar panels and lithium batteries, and EU officials, including executives of German carmakers, are expected to visit China soon.

Analysts have warned that the politicisation of China’s industrial overcapacity - Yellen has already raised the issue in almost every meeting with Chinese officials and economists - could continue to haunt bilateral relations in the US presidential election year.

“The US and EU could take some measures to protect their own sectors,” said Wang Yong, a professor with the School of International Studies at Peking University. “But customers demand Chinese products due to their better values, and competition can lead to positive economic effects.”

Wang Yong was part of the Peking University faculty that sat with Yellen for exchanges on Sunday.

“It’s more about better utilisation of capacity to satisfy the huge demand of developed and developing countries in the world,” he said.

However, the US presidential election in November and an inability to reach technological breakthroughs have pressured Western politicians into raising the issue, Wang Yong added.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also issued fresh accusations that some countries lack evidence and are hurting themselves as they push through restrictive trade measures targeting Chinese electric vehicles.

The war for domination in the world’s No 1 electric car market

“Such actions are detrimental to the development of the global automotive industry and could impede the progress of their own electrification transformation processes,” the ministry’s spokesman was quoted as saying by the state-run China Daily on Monday.

Stephen Olson, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum and a visiting lecturer at the Yeutter Institute of International Trade and Finance, explained that the US and EU positions on excess industrial capacity in China are “closely aligned”.

“They share serious concerns about the likelihood of excess Chinese production … with devastating consequences for local producers,” he said, adding that China could respond to their moves by targeting the massive subsidisation programme of Washington’s Chips and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

“China will also argue that it is producing the green energy products that the world desperately needs to effectuate the transition to a less carbon-intensive future, and will in particular point out how beneficial this is to the developing world,” Olson said.

Underage marriage of China couple sparks intervention by local officials who reject validity of nuptials

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3256892/underage-marriage-china-couple-sparks-intervention-local-officials-who-reject-validity-nuptials?utm_source=rss_feed

A wedding ceremony in China in which the bride and the groom were under 15 years old trended on mainland social media before authorities intervened to stop the underage marriage.

The nuptials were held on March 23 in a village in Xintai county in the eastern province of Shandong.

The groom was a student at a secondary school, aged about 14-15 years old, and his bride was even younger, the news outlet, Shijian Video reported.

In China, the legal age for marriage is 22 for men and 20 for women. The Juveniles Protection Law forbids parents to allow, force or arrange marriages for their underage children.

The teenagers got to know each other in September last year.

Both sets of parents, who are thought to be unaware of the law, approved the marriage in March and held a wedding according to local customs, the report said.

“They are both juveniles. Their parents got together to attend a feast to mark their marriage,” a local government official said.

“Public security, civil affairs and education departments all paid attention to this case, criticising and educating their parents and ordering the girl to return home.

“We urge these parents to fulfil their guardianship duties and we will provide psychological guidance for the two minors as a next-step measure,” the official said.

This underage couple’s nuptials became an online sensation, and were viewed 8.5 million times on Douyin alone.

“Does the groom break the law if his bride is below 14 years old and they have sex?” one online observer asked.

China’s Criminal Law stipulates that anyone having sex with a girl under 14 years old, with or without her consent, will be charged with rape.

“Why does the government outlaw their marriage? They like each other and their marriage does no harm to others. After all, in ancient China, people usually got married at around 15 and that practice did not cause big trouble for society,” another person said.

The legal marriage age has varied throughout China’s history from 12 to 20.

In some dynastic periods, governors told citizens to marry early and punished those who married late. The idea was to create a big population and also because people died young.

In recent years, families allowing their teenage children to marry have captivated mainland social media.

An 18-year-old boy married a 13-year-old girl in a village in southeastern China’s Guangdong province in 2021 but they did not register their marriage with the local civil affairs authority.

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Japan showing ‘obvious offensive characteristics’ with new Okinawa missile unit, says Chinese military newspaper

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3258256/japan-showing-obvious-offensive-characteristics-new-okinawa-missile-unit-says-chinese-military?utm_source=rss_feed

An official Chinese military newspaper has accused Japan of moving away from its pacifist constitution after it established a new anti-ship missile unit on Okinawa.

The Japanese Defence Force last month upgraded its missile defences by setting up the 7th Surface-to-Ship Missile Regiment, the first on the main island of the Ryukyu chain.

US renames key military unit in Japan’s Okinawa amid perceived Chinese aggression

A commentary in the official military newspaper People’s Liberation Army Daily said the new regiment, which will supervise missile units already stationed in the island chain, will “further strengthen the defence and attack capabilities of Japan’s southwestern islands”.

It said this means Japan “can block, or even attack rival ships entering and exiting various straits in the region, which demonstrates obvious offensive characteristics”.

It also warned that the regiment’s “combat capacity should not be underestimated”.

The article added: “[Tokyo’s] accelerated arms expansion is increasingly deviating from the principle of a ‘pacifist constitution’, bringing more uncertainty to regional and global security, and deserves higher awareness from neighbouring countries and the international community.”

The constitution adopted by Japan after its defeat in the Second World War explicitly renounces war to settle disputes and says its armed forces must be purely defensive.

The Ryukyu Island chain stretches between Japan’s four main home islands and Taiwan. The United States has a heavy military presence on Okinawa as part of its alliance with Japan.

The waters near the Ryukyu Islands are often used by the Chinese navy, including its aircraft carrier groups, as a passage to the West Pacific for drills.

The article said: “With the transfer of part of the US Marine Corps to Guam in recent years, the proportion of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces deployed in its southwest has shown a rapid increase.”

It went on to say that Japan was “actively changing” its defensive role and had “repeatedly advocated the use of the so-called ‘joint deterrent’.”

China says Taiwan is its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control. Japan and most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state.

The PLA Daily criticism follows similar statements last week from the Chinese defence ministry, which said Japan’s “continuous military breakthrough” showed “dangerous intentions” and the international community should be alert to these.

Japan has previously described China’s increasing military activity in the region as a “strategic challenge” and said the new missile regiment was designed to strengthen its “deterrence and response capabilities” in the Ryukyu Islands.

Okinawa governor traces historic Chinese links with cemetery visit

Another PLA newspaper, China Defence News, also warned about Japan’s “strengthened southwest deployment” last Monday, saying the regiments troops on tour islands will form a “missile strike network” controlling the southwestern waters of Japan.

According to Japanese public broadcaster NHK, the new regiment is expected to play “a central role in Japan’s defence of the southwestern region” and will be responsible for commanding nearby surface-to-ship missiles units on Miyakojima, Ishigakijima, and Amami-oshima, which are all part of the chain.

It will be equipped with Japan’s most advanced ship-to-surface missile, the truck-mounted Type-12. At a ceremony to mark the deployment of the first missiles on March 30, senior vice defence minister Makoto Oniki said Okinawa was an “extremely important” location for national security.

United States will not accept flood of cheap Chinese products, Yellen says

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/08/china-beijing-janet-yellen-manufacturing/2024-04-08T07:27:52.181Z

The United States will not accept another wave of cheap Chinese goods that flood global markets and hurt both American businesses and American workers, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said in Beijing on Monday at the end of a four-day visit through the country.

Her remarks came after Beijing agreed to talks to prevent rising trade tensions from derailing tentatively improving relations with Washington.

The Chinese government’s support for expanding manufacturing in sectors such as solar, electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries has “growing negative spillovers for the globe” — much like a glut of Chinese steel exports that “decimated” industries around the world in the 2010s, Yellen said from the garden of the American ambassador’s official residence.

“I’ve made it clear that President Biden and I will not accept that reality again,” she said.

The visit, Yellen’s second in nine months, is part of an effort to stabilize relations after years of spiraling tensions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit China later in the year.

President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone last week as both superpowers pushed forward with a tentative reset of a relationship hamstrung by lingering disputes over trade and technology.

China has largely welcomed Yellen, who is seen in Beijing as a pragmatist who opposes the “decoupling” of the world’s two largest economies.

Chinese state media lavished enthusiastic praise on Yellen for her proficiency with chopsticks during meals at state-run restaurants serving regional Chinese cuisine.

But the positive tone has been undercut by rising concerns in Europe and the United States about a surge of cheap Chinese exports — most notably green technologies but also of electronic appliances and steel — that could put international competitors out of business.

Analysts have warned of a repeat of the “China shock” that hollowed out American manufacturing in the 2000s if China continues to pump money into manufacturing to spur a slowing economy.

“China is now simply too large for the rest of the world to absorb this enormous capacity,” Yellen said. “When the global market is flooded by artificially cheap Chinese products, the viability of American and other foreign firms is put into question.”

She added that U.S. concerns are “not animated by anti-China sentiment” and are shared by many other countries around the world, including Japan, Mexico and the Philippines, as well as across Europe.

Beijing appeared to acknowledge the need for efforts to stem rising trade tensions from Chinese overproduction.

After meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Friday, Yellen announced an initiative of “intensive exchanges” to address “imbalances” in the global economy stemming from Chinese support of its industries. The talks are set to begin within weeks.

She declined to elaborate on the measures the United States would press China to adopt but said Chinese authorities should boost domestic consumption to balance the current lopsided reliance on manufacturing.

But Beijing has bristled at any suggestion of a solution that harms its emerging dominance in the technologies needed to curb reliance on fossil fuels and the greenhouse gases they emit when burned.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Sunday called for the United States to “view issues of industrial capacity objectively” and said China will “contribute significantly to the green and low-carbon transition worldwide.”

China hopes the United States will “uphold the basic norms fair competition” and not “politicize or impose security concerns on trade,” Li said, according to a Chinese government readout.

China’s ballooning trade relationship with Russia was another point of tension.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry rejected Yellen’s warning that Chinese companies should not support Russia’s military industrial sector as an attempt to “attack and smear normal relations between Russia and China.”

On Chinese social media, however, the discussion continued to focus on Yellen’s food choices, after she was spotted over the weekend at a Beijing restaurant run by the government of Sichuan, a province famous for its dishes laden with numbing pepper.

State media was quick to note that goodwill from embracing Chinese food culture will only get the United States so far.

“We welcome U.S. officials to sample Chinese delicacies,” one state-affiliated commentator wrote. “This does not mean that we accept sanctions and restrictive measures.”

Pei-Lin Wu and Vic Chiang in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.

Chinese scientists question ‘flaw’ in Nasa’s hypersonic aerodynamics software

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3258190/chinese-scientists-question-flaw-nasas-hypersonic-aerodynamics-software?utm_source=rss_feed

A research team in China says it has discovered a potentially fatal flaw in Nasa’s hypersonic aerodynamics software.

This small deficiency amid tangled equations could lead to “inevitably erroneous outcomes” when scientists simulate and analyse important issues, such as high-temperature ablation, said the team led by Professor Liu Jun, a researcher at the Hypersonic Technology Laboratory of the National University of Defence Technology, in a peer-reviewed paper published in the Chinese academic journal Acta Aerodynamica Sinica on March 14.

When an aircraft’s speed exceeds Mach 5, intense friction with the air generates sizzling temperatures that can ionise air molecules and spark chemical reactions.

These intricate reactions can erode the surface of the aircraft and alter the temperature or density of the surrounding air. Inaccuracies in the modelling data could have profound implications for the performance and safety of the aircraft.

The software mentioned in Liu’s paper, called Vulcan-CFD, was developed by Nasa’s Langley Research Centre and is widely used to develop hypersonic weapons in the United States. It is therefore subject to export controls, with distributions limited to within American borders.

The Nasa software development team introduced the working principles of Vulcan and some key equations it used in an academic paper published in 2020.

The software was “well known” to the industry, Liu and his collaborators said.

Liu, whose laboratory is in Changsha, Hunan Province, was joined in the research by scientists from the People’s Liberation Army University of Aerospace Engineering in Beijing and the Aerodynamics Research and Development Centre in Mianyang, Sichuan. The three institutions have contributed to the rapid development of Chinese hypersonic weapon technology over the past two decades.

The pace of American hypersonic weapons development lags behind that of China and Russia and is gradually being overtaken by some smaller nations. North Korea says it successfully tested Mars 16B, a land-based hypersonic gliding missile, on April 3.

Meanwhile the US Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), which is akin to the North Korean missile, failed consecutively in 2021 and 2022. The subsequent three planned launches were either scrapped or postponed.

These setbacks come at a steep price. For the 2025 financial year alone, the US Army has requested $1.28 billion from taxpayers “to deliver an experimental prototype with residual combat capability in 2024”.

US ‘may be sending strong message’ to China with hypersonic missile test

The US Congressional Budget Office blamed the unfavourable progress on high temperatures.

“The fundamental remaining challenge involves managing the extreme heat that hypersonic missiles are exposed to by travelling at high speeds in the atmosphere for most of their flight,” the office wrote in a report after conducting a thorough investigation into American hypersonic weapon programmes last year.

“Shielding hypersonic missiles’ sensitive electronics, understanding how various materials perform, and predicting aerodynamics at sustained temperatures as high as 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit require extensive flight testing. Tests are ongoing, but failures in recent years have delayed progress,” it said.

Liu’s team said it discovered the flaw in an equation used by Nasa in Vulcan to describe changes in the concentration of different chemical components, such as oxygen and nitrogen, in high-temperature gas mixtures.

This equation fails to account for the mixing and transport of components caused by small-scale turbulence when temperatures are rapidly changing or oscillating.

Due to the complexity of hypersonic aerodynamics, some small-scale motions can be neglected by model designers because of a lack of understanding or calculations too complex to solve.

Liu’s team said in its paper that Nasa’s lack of attention to this detail has resulted in the software’s inability to precisely forecast the chemical composition and temperature changes on the aircraft surface, which could have a significant impact on simulation, design or analysis work that relies on the software.

Nasa was among the first institutions in the world to explore hypersonic technology.

The term “hypersonic” was coined by Qian Xuesen, the father of Chinese rockets, while he was working at Nasa as one of the three founding scientists of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in 1946.

Intel boss says US$7 billion loss a cost of regaining chip production supremacy

Scientists and engineers at Nasa have conducted many pioneering studies and flight tests in this domain but in recent years it has suffered from persistent budget cuts and a brain drain.

JPL laid off 530 employees in February amid funding uncertainty.

The South China Morning Post has reached out to Nasa for comment.

China social media stunned by weather-beaten woman, 28, who looks decades older after long hikes but has ‘no appearance anxiety’

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3255907/china-social-media-stunned-weather-beaten-woman-28-who-looks-decades-older-after-long-hikes-has-no?utm_source=rss_feed

A 28-year-old long-distance hiker in China who has shocked people online with a weather-beaten face that makes her look much older has hit back at her detractors.

The woman from central China’s Hubei province, nicknamed Xiaxia, was filmed by a Douyin influencer on a hiking trip along the China National Highway 214 in March.

She began the journey from southwestern China’s Chongqing municipality to the southwestern Tibet autonomous region in January.

Throughout the entire journey, Xiaxia pushed a 50kg cart carrying her daily living necessities, including a tent and a stove.

She said she pitched her tent in relatively safe villages and slept in hotels no more than three times a month. More often, she chose not to sleep, in favour of hiking throughout the night.

She covered distances of up to 50km a day and did online live-streaming along the way, which she said helped relieve boredom, and the screen allowed her to check the cars behind.

Live-streaming is also her major source of income. Donations from viewers could reach up to 10,000 yuan (US$1,400) a month.

Some online observers were shocked at her appearance, saying she looks like a 58-year-old, but Xiaxia said she had no anxiety about it and even joked about her older looks.

“I have a strong heart and a healthy body, and that is the most important thing,” she said on Douyin.

She added that she was confident her appearance will return to its former status once she finishes her hiking adventures.

Her account saw an increase of 200,000 followers after the video went viral.

Currently, about halfway through her journey, this is the second time Xiaxia has hiked towards Tibet. She spent a year hiking along the China National Highway 318 from the central Chinese province of Hubei to the Potala Palace from the end of 2021.

She told the mainland media outlet Jimu News that she first tried long-distance hiking in June 2021, from southeastern China’s Guangdong province to her hometown Hubei.

It was during the Covid-19 pandemic, and she decided to walk home because she feared public transport was “not safe”.

Xiaxia has walked a total of 10,000km.

Turning a necessity into a hobby, she said hiking is something she wants to do before she gets old because it is a good way to see the world and experience freedom. She plans to hike outside of China in the future.

She said she received a lot of encouragement and help on her journeys.

Many people gave her free food and water and provided her with free electricity to charge her power banks and hot water to wash her hair.

Shimao Group faces winding-up petition from China Construction Bank, signalling developer is in ‘serious debt trouble’

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3258184/shimao-group-faces-winding-petition-china-construction-bank-signalling-developer-serious-debt?utm_source=rss_feed

Troubled property developer Shimao Group Holdings is facing a liquidation suit brought by China Construction Bank, the country’s second-largest lender, for a financial obligation amounting to around HK$1.58 billion (US$201.8 million).

In a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Monday, the Shanghai-based developer vowed to “vigorously” oppose the winding-up petition, which it said “does not represent collective interests of the company’s offshore creditors and other stake holders”, while working towards restructuring its offshore debt.

The company said late last month that it was seeking to restructure US$11.7 billion worth of offshore debt in its latest efforts to avoid liquidation.

Shimao urged its offshore creditors to “carefully consider” the restructuring plan put forward on March 25, in which it presented four options including short-term and long-term notes offering an aggregate principal amount of no more than US$4 billion, according to an earlier stock exchange filing.

“This is one of the first instances where a property developer has faced a winding-up petition from a large, state-owned commercial bank, which means that Shimao is facing serious debt trouble,” said Shen Meng, director at Chanson & Company, a Beijing-based boutique investment firm.

“The chances of it successfully restructuring its debt and paying back its creditors in the short term is pretty low.

“However, it is worth noting that China’s property developers have different business strategies, and Shimao’s debt issue isn’t an indication that other large private property developers will give up their debt restructuring plans and liquidate.”

The pressure to liquidate is very much present among China’s embattled property developers. Country Garden, for example, received a winding-up petition in February for failing to pay back loans worth over US$200 million. The Foshan, Guangdong-based developer downplayed the possibility of liquidation in a statement last month.

Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer, was ordered by a court in Hong Kong to liquidate in late January.

China’s property developers have been facing liquidity problems since a nationwide campaign was introduced in August 2020 to rein in debt in the sector. Many developers have defaulted on their debt since then.

To inject liquidity into the sector and shore up confidence, Chinese authorities have been rolling out piecemeal measures to offer property developers a financial lifeline.

One of the most recent measures, launched in January, was the “project whitelist” mechanism, which allows local governments to recommend property projects to banks that are deemed to qualify for financial support.

However, the pressure to ramp up support for indebted developers is having a negative impact on the profitability of China’s commercial banks. Bank of Communications, one of the country’s largest state-owned lenders, recently posted its slowest annual earnings growth since at least 2004, while its net interest margin also fell.

China Construction Bank also saw its net interest margin narrow, as did the Industrial Bank of China, Bank of China, and the Agricultural Bank of China.

Armless man in China denied free metro ride without disability pass, calls for more ‘humanised’ rules

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/gender-diversity/article/3256878/armless-man-china-denied-free-metro-ride-without-disability-pass-calls-more-humanised-rules?utm_source=rss_feed

Railway station staff in China who asked an armless man to prove that he was disabled in order to travel for free have sparked a wave of anger on mainland social media.

Li Fengqiang, posted a video of his experience at the entrance of a metro station in Wuhan, central China’s Hubei province, on his Douyin account on March 21.

A member of staff told him he needed to show his government-issued disability pass in order to travel for free on public transport.

Li had forgotten his document and argued he did not need to show proof, but was told by staff that they had to act according to the rules, then offered to pay for Li’s ticket.

Li turned down the offer and bought his own ticket.

Wuhan Metro apologised within 24 hours, saying the staff member had been inconsiderate and promised to protect disabled people’s right to barrier-free travel in future.

Online observers were not impressed, saying it was the transport company’s inflexible rules, not the staff, who were in the wrong.

“Both the staff and the armless man were victims of unfriendly rules,” said one online observer on Weibo.

Li said he had not posted the video to blame the staff, but to call for a “more humanised” environment for the disabled.

“Many people with disabilities often have a hard time plucking up the courage to leave their home. An unfriendly rule like this could easily put them off getting out and about,” he said.

A disabled swimming athlete and owner of a swimming stadium company, Li said 70 per cent of the staff hired at his company were disabled , and he knew how much difficulty they had travelling every day.

According to a report, jointly conducted by the China Disabled Persons’ Federation and China Consumers Association in 2017, there are fewer than 40.6 per cent barrier-free facilities in China. The existing facilities also lack maintenance.

China has more than 85 million people with disabilities, according to the government. It is estimated the number will rise to 250 million by the year 2050.

The country officially implemented the Barrier-free Environment Creation Law in September 2023, vowing to create a more inclusive environment.

The law specifies requirements for the construction of accessible facilities and the application of accessible information exchanges as well as social services.

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South China Sea: Philippines’ David vs Goliath sovereignty struggle encapsulated – in tiny Thitu Island

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3258172/south-china-sea-philippines-david-vs-goliath-sovereignty-struggle-encapsulated-tiny-thitu-island?utm_source=rss_feed

A tiny island in the South China Sea symbolises the struggle – and disparity – in the Philippines’ efforts to assert its rights in disputed waters when compared to China, which claims much of the waterway.

Manila is rushing to develop the 33-hectare (82-acre) Thitu Island, with the government planning to pour in billions of pesos to upgrade it. Just over 200 civilians and military personnel currently live there.

But some 27km (17 miles) southwest of the island, China has built a fully functioning military base on Subi Reef that is estimated to be 12 times the size of Thitu.

That base is just one of Beijing’s 27 outposts in the South China Sea equipped with ports, runways and other infrastructure aimed at asserting its sweeping claims in the key waterway.

Fortified South China Sea islands help project Beijing’s power: experts

By contrast, Manila occupies nine features that have few facilities or structures. Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also have a presence in the area, and overlapping territorial claims.

This disparity explains, in part, the Philippines’ recent urgency in bolstering its defence alliances, most notably with the United States.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has, over the past year, moved to assert his country’s rights in the waters. He’s been backed by unstinting US support.

Marcos will meet US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a trilateral summit at the White House on April 11 aimed at strengthening ties. Both Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the US.

On a recent visit to Thitu – which is also known as “Pag-asa”, the local word for hope – arranged by the Philippine Coast Guard, reporters saw first hand just how underdeveloped the Philippines’ largest-occupied feature in the disputed sea is.

Much of the island is still unpaved, with phone and internet signals hard to come by. There’s still evidence of the destruction caused by a 2021 typhoon: school buildings with damaged roofs and windows that are unusable.

Given its location – nearly 450km away from mainland Palawan province – residents sometimes wait days for basic supplies like noodles, coffee and soap to be ferried in. The coastguard’s new monitoring station appears largely rudimentary.

Still, the Southeast Asian nation is determined to maintain a civilian and military presence on Thitu. Aircraft can now land on its runway after repairs and expansion. A landing dock and a port have also been built, and construction is in full swing to extend the island farther into the sea. There are plans to equip the area with a naval port and radars.

Manila also recently sent researchers to check marine resources near Thitu, yet another step to assert its rights in disputed waters. The research initially found dead corals and small species of fish that suggest environmental degradation in the vicinity of the island, but didn’t directly attribute the findings to Beijing’s presence in the area.

“Our overarching strategy involves continuous enhancement of facilities, modernisation efforts, and fortification of assets and capabilities,” Philippine military spokeswoman Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla said when asked about plans for Thitu. “These measures are vital in upholding our sovereignty over Philippine territorial waters.”

China warns close military ties between US, Philippines could trigger conflict

The Philippines’ attempts are likely to draw opposition from China, which has refused to recognise a 2016 arbitral ruling that dashed its expansive claims. Beijing maintains a constant watch on the island and its coastguard and militia ships regularly patrol close to Thitu. Some of the vessels were involved in a recent tense encounter over nearby sandbars.

“At first, this was intended to coerce the Philippines into abandoning the upgrades,” said Gregory Poling, who directs the Southeast Asia programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“Now, it seems meant to merely intimidate the Philippines but with little chance of success.”

How North African railway is on track to helping China de-risk its iron ore supply

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3257816/how-north-african-railway-track-helping-china-de-risk-its-iron-ore-supply?utm_source=rss_feed

In the middle of the Sahara Desert, Chinese workers have been braving the intense Algerian heat as they build a 575km (357-mile) rail line connecting one of the world’s largest iron ore mines to the national rail network.

Workers of the state-owned China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) have begun digging the rocky, dusty route between the Gara Djebilet iron ore mine in Algeria’s southwest province of Tindouf and Bechar at its border with Morocco, in preparation for laying track.

It is tough work, but a task that could ultimately help China de-risk its iron ore supply, while helping the North African country at the same time.

China currently depends largely on Australia and Brazil for its iron ore, the primary raw material for making steel. Beijing is hoping supply from the Gara Djebilet mine, which has reserves of around 3.5 billion tonnes, will help diversify its sources.

Meanwhile, Algiers is banking on the ore to help reduce its dependence on its oil and gas industries for export revenues.

CRCC will work with Algerian state-owned civil engineering company Cosider Travaux Publics to deliver the railroad, which will connect the remote parts of the mineral-rich western region of Gara Djebilet Iron Mine Zone with the Dumiat Industrial Zone in the Bechar region, with a total of 40 stations along the way. In doing so, it will facilitate the development of Algerian iron ore mining and provide a much-needed boost to the economy.

The Chinese company is well-practised in desert construction. It previously assisted in the construction of parts of Algeria’s 1,216km East-West Highway – built over the course of 16 years “under the most complex geological conditions”, according to Beijing.

The Gara Djebilet project is part of China’s “railway diplomacy” that will see the construction of 6,000km of tracks across the North African country.

It is also part of 19 cooperation deals worth US$36 billion that Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed in Beijing in July last year.

“Strengthening the railway sector is the best guarantee for development and our Chinese friends have agreed to this project, which will cover about 6,000km,” Tebboune said during his visit to China.

Algerian MP Mohamed Machkak, of the Transport Commission, told Chinese-owned CGTN Africa – the African division of the China Global Television Network – that the new railway project will connect isolated regions, creating thousands of direct and indirect jobs for Algerian youths.

“It will raise standards of living and create economic opportunities for individuals and communities,” Machkak said.

According to Yahia Zoubir, a non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Qatari capital Doha, the Gara Djebilet mine in the southwest, phosphates projects in the east, as well as other minerals, will help Algeria reduce its decades-long dependence on oil.

Zoubir said in the early 1970s, the iron ore mines of Gara Djebilet were going to be developed in collaboration with Morocco, under the leadership of then-president of Algeria Houari Boumediene.

Inspiration had been taken from the cooperation of France and West Germany in the 1950s with the formation of the European Community of Steel and Coal, which ultimately led to the creation of the European Union. But a dispute over a region of the Western Sahara in the 1970s saw the Algeria-Morocco deal fall through.

“The tense relations between Algeria and Morocco put an end to the Gara Djebilet cooperation project,” Zoubir said.

He said the existing infrastructure had become obsolete and the need for an easy way to transport the iron ore across the desert prompted the Algerian government to ask China for help, due to their other successful projects in the country, such as water pipelines, highways and tunnels.

“Undoubtedly, this project is important for Algeria but also for China since the spillover of such a project, once implemented, would be emulated in the sub-Saharan region and in the Mediterranean Basin,” Zoubir said.

It will also give China access to another source of iron ore, something it desperately wants, said Lina Benabdallah, an associate professor in the politics and international affairs department at Wake Forest University in the US.

She said once the Gara Djebilet mine is developed, it is expected to yield an initial production capacity of 2 million to 3 million tonnes per year.

The railway from Bechar to Tindouf is critical for the transport of ore concentrate, she said, both for local and international markets.

“This project is interesting to the Algerian government for the potential for income diversification and economic growth,” Benabdallah said.

“And for China, increasing options for where to source iron ore is critical to avoid depending on a limited number of providers and the price or access volatility that can come with that.”

She said Algeria and China have a strong diplomatic bond, with the countries elevating their relationship to comprehensive strategic partnership in 2014 – the highest designation under China’s bilateral relations.

“This signals both to the fact [that] China and Algeria have enjoyed very strong relations since the 1950s and Algeria’s anti-colonial war, and also the continuous strength of the diplomatic ties over the decades,” Benabdallah said.

Steven Jackson, a professor of political science and fellow at Washington’s Wilson Centre, agreed that the main thing China gets out of the Algeria deal is a diversification of its iron ore sources.

He said China is the top steel producer in the world, making over 1 billion tonnes of steel in 2022 – significantly more than the rest of the world combined. But China imports most of its iron ore and 70 per cent of that ore comes from one country: Australia.

“China-Australian relations have been strained in recent years and China’s leaders would probably want to diversify its sources,” Jackson said.

If that relationship was to worsen in the near future, he said other iron ore sources would be imperative.

Jackson noted that in 2017, Chinese steelmakers and Algerian officials signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to explore the idea of exporting ore from the Gara Djebilet mine, but that at the time it was found to be both a logistical challenge, with the railway needed, and a technical challenge, because of phosphorus in the ore, which weakens the steel.

“The Chinese may have found a way to make it viable,” Jackson said.

On the economic relationship front, he said China is now Algeria’s biggest source of imports – at 17 per cent in 2022 and growing. Meanwhile, France’s market share has been shrinking; it was number one in 2010, but is now a distant second, with about 10 per cent of the Algerian market, according to Jackson.

He said China exported nearly US$7 billion of goods to Algeria in 2022. However Algerian exports back to China were less than US$2 billion that year.

“There is a significant trade imbalance, and the leaders in Algiers would like to export more to China. Algeria would also like to see more Chinese investment in Algeria,” Jackson said.

Hong Kong welcomes Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 for 5-day visit, as city leader John Lee hails ‘historic’ moment for scientific sector

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3258178/hong-kong-welcomes-chinese-icebreaker-xue-long-2-5-day-visit-city-leader-john-lee-hails-historic?utm_source=rss_feed

The Xue Long 2 icebreaker has arrived in Hong Kong to make its first stop at a Chinese port after completing a polar expedition, with the city’s leader hailing the five-day visit as a landmark for the scientific sector.

The country’s first domestically built polar scientific research icebreaker was given a warm welcome on Monday, complete with tugboats spraying water high into the sky as the vessel cruised into Victoria Harbour, while helicopters from the Government Flying Service hovered nearby and a police band played rousing tunes at the waterfront in Tsim Sha Tsui.

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and Zheng Yanxiong, director of the central government’s liaison office in Hong Kong, welcomed the ship’s 30-strong delegation which included Zhang Beichen, the team leader and chief scientist of China’s 40th Antarctic expedition, and captain Xiao Zhimin.

The members were also greeted by lawmaker Ma Fung-kwok, who chairs the organising committee for the five-day visit and its associated events, as well as Professor Ho Kin-chung, founder of the Green Future Foundation Association and the Polar Research Institute of Hong Kong, both co-organisers.

Xue Long 2, which entered service in 2019 and is equipped with world-class marine and research facilities, features the world’s first dual-directional icebreaking capability at the bow and stern, and can rotate freely 360 degrees in place.

The vessel will be open for public visits between Tuesday and Friday, but places will be allocated through an online ballot system because of limited on-board capacity.

The icebreaker’s visit also coincides with a two-day conference on climate change in the city to be attended by experts worldwide, and an exhibition on the topic and polar research at the Hong Kong Science Museum that runs until June.

Students will be invited to hear from visiting scientists from the ship as well as those from the Zhongshan Station in Antarctica, while lectures and exhibitions on polar science will also be organised for primary and secondary school pupils starting next month.

On the night before the icebreaker officially arrived, city leader Lee hosted the delegation at Government House, with members sharing stories about constructing Qinling Station and living in Antarctica.

Qinling is the fifth Antarctic research station operated by the Polar Research Institute of China.

Hong Kong to receive icebreaker Xue Long 2 for first time in April

Lee said the icebreaker’s return home with a first stop in the city was “historic” and a landmark event for the local scientific and environmental sectors.

He added that related talks and activities would allow residents to learn more about China’s technological achievements in its polar expeditions and offered a chance for the public to embrace its national identity, especially among the younger generation.

Sun Shuxian, deputy minister of the ministry of natural resources, said the country had achieved remarkable results in the expeditions and become one of the world’s great polar powers.

He hoped that governments and research institutes in mainland China and Hong Kong could further collaborate through the visit, while also contributing to the country’s progress and sustainable ocean and polar development.

How to stem terrorist attacks on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3258011/how-stem-terrorist-attacks-china-pakistan-economic-corridor?utm_source=rss_feed

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a crucial pillar of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive project in connectivity that includes Pakistan’s Gwadar port. But Baloch separatist groups have long targeted the project, and an escalation in attacks last month was clearly aimed at Chinese nationals and interests.

This cloud of insecurity casts a shadow over the future of this important economic corridor. Addressing these concerns through a multifaceted formula involving military, diplomatic and economic dimensions is crucial for the project’s viability.

The ongoing attacks on the CPEC project are primarily carried out by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which serves as an umbrella organisation for the Baloch separatists. These separatist factions argue that Pakistan’s deepening ties with China have failed to yield benefits for Balochistan province; instead, they characterise the engagement as a form of exploitation. As a result, they target CPEC facilities, Chinese personnel and the security personnel safeguarding them, employing a variety of terrorist tactics.

Beyond the BLA’s activities, other terrorist outfits such as Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) have also launched attacks, particularly in border provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Despite denials of any direct ties between the Taliban regime in Kabul and these terrorist outfits, Pakistan has highlighted a surge in terrorism within its borders since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, and demanded that Afghan territories be denied to terrorist operatives.

Both Pakistan and China must find a solution to alleviate the security concerns surrounding the fate of their economic corridor project. The CPEC is not merely a linear investment pathway; it embodies broader regional and global linkages from Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea. Finding the path to resolving the escalating security issues requires a joint effort from Pakistan and China.

China’s “five principles of peaceful coexistence” calls for non-interference in the domestic affairs of others. From its perspective, the Baloch separatist issue is fundamentally Pakistan’s concern. Therefore, Pakistan must shoulder the bulk of responsibility in combating domestic terrorism, especially when it comes to local groups like the BLA.

Nevertheless, safeguarding China’s national interests in Pakistan, including its citizens and assets, necessitates close intelligence and security collaboration with the Pakistani government. While the presence of Chinese security personnel in foreign lands may seem unusual, it’s a delicate arrangement essential for maintaining stability.

Presently, private Chinese security firms, together with Pakistani special security divisions, handle these duties, but there’s an urgent need to transition to a more professional approach. Beyond the BLA, addressing security threats in the broader Afghanistan-Pakistan nexus could benefit from a diplomatic endeavour where China plays a pivotal role, leveraging its permanent seat in the UN Security Council and pursuing pragmatic relations with Kabul.

Given that China is also a neighbour to Afghanistan, this matter isn’t solely about the fate of CPEC; it also involves Beijing taking long-term measures for its own border security.

China is taking significant strides towards this objective. An exemplary move was last year’s 25-year oil extraction deal with Afghanistan. Moreover, as part of its engagement with Afghanistan, China may pursue projects under the Belt and Road Initiative that promise substantial social benefits in Afghan territory.

Alongside this, a diplomatic strategy aimed at increasing deterrence against groups like the TJP and TTP, which share an ideological alignment with the Taliban government, could be implemented.

China is one of the most proactive players in bilateral diplomacy with Afghanistan. The reception of former Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi as a special envoy in Beijing last November reflected this diplomatic climate.

From Pakistan’s perspective, it is crucial not to take a back seat in the diplomatic engagement with the Taliban and to maintain an active presence in the trilateral dialogue with China. India, on the other hand, seems to be stepping out of its comfort zone, or perhaps accepting a new reality, by gradually resuming its relations with the Taliban to find regional and bilateral cooperation avenues and to offer humanitarian aid.

Pakistan, which used to be the Taliban’s principal backer, is facing a degradation in its relations with Kabul, as disappointed hopes and unrealistic expectations cloud judgment on both sides.

In any case, Islamabad would be unwise to burn bridges with Kabul. Pakistani officials must be pragmatic. While not officially recognising the Taliban government, they must acknowledge the reality that the Taliban is the sole authority in Afghan territories. This could be done while simultaneously asking Kabul to help combat anti-Pakistan terrorist groups.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative rightly offers charity-free development

It must be noted that the Belt and Road Initiative is not simply about erecting infrastructure and then departing; it aims to leave a lasting imprint and cultivate China’s soft power. Rectifying any unfair distributions of the socio-economic benefits is crucial, as this not only addresses local grievances but also reshapes social perceptions. Therefore, China must make a greater effort to address local grievances and entice Pakistanis away from separatist groups like the BLA.

Finally, the security challenges stemming from terrorism are not unique to Pakistan. Today, it is a problem encountered by many projects seeking to enhance regional and global interconnectedness, whether in the operational or planning stages.

The fate of initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced at last year’s G20 summit in New Delhi is a poignant example; the project faces serious setbacks after Israel’s military onslaught on Gaza. Meanwhile, attacks initiated by the Yemeni rebel Houthis, particularly in the Red Sea, continue to pose a threat to maritime trade.

Such concerns have always existed, but what is crucial is devising effective solutions to address them.

‘Fitness centre China’: world champion in development can do more and solve overcapacity problem, top business leader says

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3258123/fitness-centre-china-world-champion-development-can-do-more-and-solve-overcapacity-problem-top?utm_source=rss_feed

Open Questions is a with global opinion leaders. In this exchange, long-time European Union trade group chief Joerg Wuttke shares his views with on China’s economic rise and headwinds, tensions with the West, and his observations in China over the past three decades. Wuttke is currently president emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China after chairing both it and the German Chamber of Commerce for years. Read the previous instalment in the series,

I had the privilege of being here for the first time in 1982 when China was just about opening up. China was very poor then, but it had visionary leaders who wanted to break with the past. My admiration belongs primarily to Deng Xiaoping who made the transition and learned from abroad, which started with learning from Hong Kong, with the spillover into Shenzhen, Guangdong and scaling up in the country.

It is very important that leaders can facilitate change in a language that people not only understand but also put into action. Deng took a journey to the south in 1992 to get the country out of the woods of June 1989. He also had someone who actually facilitated the change.

The other man I admire nearly as much as Deng Xiaoping is [former] prime minister Zhu Rongji, who was very unusual in his wit, criticism and dynamics. China’s trade minister, Wang Wentao, is very open-minded and very smart in defending the country’s positions, while being able to understand concerns of foreign business.

The most important visual change is that China was trying to learn from the West how to build cars. In a way, it never really succeeded, though it is the biggest market. Now China has unlearned how to build cars and developed electric vehicles. It has taught us a lesson on how to build mobile phones on wheels. That is the magic of China.

‘Something must change’: EU chamber warns of unfolding ‘train accident’ with China

It was in April 2022 when it was clear to me zero-Covid was not going to be good for the economy, nor the country. I wrote a confidential letter to the State Council, which was then leaked and caused a huge discussion that put me on the spot. Being someone trying to bring nuances to the policy and an outspoken advocate of a change that was not supported by the Politburo – that was a very difficult moment for me.

I have always tried to steer discussions, as it is the duty of the European chamber. We are guests here but with stakes and interests in this country. We bring ideas to the table. If they are rejected, we have to live with that.

The proudest moment for me as a community leader was in 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). The European chamber was founded during the period of time [in 2000] and we were deeply embedded in the discussion on what Europe should negotiate with China. We wanted China to succeed, as there was a lot of pressure on premier Zhu not to join the WTO. Unlike today, it was a very open discussion in China at that time.

When you look into economic history – the strong growth in imperial Germany between 1870 and 1910, Japan until 1990, and the fast rise of the economies of Taiwan and South Korea in the ’80s and ’90s – those periods changed the psychology of people, making them feel that the sky’s the limit. It showed, in their patriotism, a justified pride of what they had achieved. Yet, those economic star performers also belittled other countries because they saw through the prism of a zero-sum game. Japan in the 1980s looked like it would be rolling over everybody else, but then the economic growth was flat for decades to come.

China is running the same risk believing that she is unique. That might be the wrong kind of nationalism.

I’ve witnessed, myself, the rise of China over the last 40 years as an incredible success story, but I also saw the challenges arising in all those economies after long periods of strong industrialisation and urbanisation. You run the risk of misjudging yourself. You might call it hubris.

It takes two to tango. China started pushing. The US played American football, fighting for every yard and pushing back.

China is overemphasising safety and security, which unleashes forces on the other side doing exactly the same.

On a totally different level, [Vladimir] Putin and Russia have been worried about [the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation] encroaching on Russia. And by attacking Ukraine, the Russian leadership managed to do exactly that. Now Finland and Sweden are members of Nato, and eventually Ukraine might end up as a Nato partner. So, in a way, sometimes by trying to avoid things, you actually might aggravate developments you tried to contain.

It is not necessarily the case that China and the US are falling out. There is still room to navigate this. But it takes leadership to see that every assertive action on one side causes a counter-reaction.

We are not at a dead end yet. But we are in a situation where parties are overemphasising the defensive game, in which everything has to emphasise security. This could stifle economic development.

If a shift takes place in the world, economically, but also by demographics like the rise of India and China, it always changes the whole setting. To assume that we can go back to the 1950s and ’60s, in having the West – particularly the United States – controlling everything, is not realistic.

The rise of China or India will clearly change the dynamics.

Unlike the rise of Korea or Japan, China is not under the influence of the US. China has chosen a political system that has a built-in rivalry. As a German, I have read Karl Marx. There is a duel between capitalism and communism, and Marx’s dialectics predicts that communism will eventually prevail over capitalism.

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So, the Chinese political class is certain that, eventually, their system is going to prevail over the Western system.

It requires strong visionary leadership to navigate those ideological cliffs. Deng Xiaoping knew how to communicate with other countries while refraining from emphasising ideological supremacy.

My home country developed out of very difficult circumstances. Germany was never a unified country until 1871. The unification unleashed incredible intellectual and economic forces and turned Germany into an economic superpower in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Similarities don’t have to match totally. There is no comparison between the leadership of China and the imperial emperor Wilhelm of that time, but it indicates the trend line that you have to watch.

Germans 120 years ago felt that “someone’s blocking our rightful place in the sun”, referring to the dominant British Empire. After 1871, chancellor [Otto von] Bismarck showed great skills and leadership to accommodate neighbouring countries to facilitate the economic and societal transition, to make it as smooth as possible and not be antagonistic. In our case, it ended in disaster – the first world war. That doesn’t have to be replicated. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, as Mark Twain said.

The view from Washington on China is all about security. But in Berlin or Brussels, it is all about the economy, though it has changed because of China’s reluctance to criticise Russia for its invasion into Ukraine.

The challenge in Europe-China relations will be about China’s ability to address trade flows, to cut the incredible domestic overcapacities, a willingness to reconsider the substitution of imports from Europe, and the political will to really grant full market access to European business.

It is also about the perception in Europe that China is taking away jobs from European companies, outbidding them often fair and square, yet at times due to outsized subsidies winning bids on an uneven level field.

The EU-China relationship will be focusing on jobs: does China create jobs or kill jobs in Europe? This will drive our democratic system in Europe in its search for an answer on “how to respond to China”.

At this stage, China does not create enough jobs in Europe. Its market is really not yet matching the openness of our home market. The European chamber has a position paper with more than 1,000 items of unresolved issues in China, and the number is growing instead of shrinking.

EU exports to China are going down from an already very small basis. The EU’s exports to China in 2022 were just 23 per cent more than China’s into Switzerland. So, is the Chinese market really only 23 per cent bigger than the Swiss market?

EU business in China is still not investing enough, given this market’s potential. We could do so much more with the investment of Europe in China. Real annual EU companies’ investment is still less than US$10 billion per year, which is pretty much what EU companies invest in Texas annually.

We get criticised back home for being overexposed to China and overdependent on China. My argument is always that we are under-represented in the Chinese economy, and we want China to open up more so we can export more to this market and create more jobs back home in Europe.

It is, unfortunately, a recurring topic. The European chamber launched reports on overcapacity in 2009 and 2016. The chamber published a study “Made in China 2025” in March 2017, indicating that planning in China too often leads to overcapacity.

It is a systemic problem in China. At the core of the overcapacity problem is that nobody leaves the market. Everybody hangs in there, fighting for market share, dropping prices and trying to be more efficient.

In Western markets, companies go bankrupt as an economic response to overcapacity. In China, companies do not go bankrupt often enough, unless they are in private ownership. China has at least 150,000 [state-owned enterprises] – none of them go bankrupt easily, because they’re state-protected.

China produces too much of everything. It is a problem for the West as it struggles to compete against often-subsidised companies that are surviving, rather, by fighting for market shares while dropping prices instead of improving competitiveness.

The overcapacity is actually a much bigger problem for China herself than its trading partners, as domestic companies produce plenty of products but many do not make money. It forces them to cut costs, possibly cutting corners on, let’s say, environmental protection, and/or sacrificing spending on basic research.

Too many local governments are subsidising and keeping companies afloat. Companies should make their assets sweat, make money and be profitable to pay local taxes and do innovation. But now it is not happening in many places.

Chinese officials know companies have to go bankrupt and cannot subsidise them forever. But they also worry about unemployment, and that is where language and clarity of thought come in. That is where leaders have to communicate with the public clearly: it will be a tough period of time, but we will be better off and we still have a huge potential.

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China has to develop areas where there is a high chance of higher employment, such as the service sector. China does not really have a demand problem, they have a supply issue.

Beijing has to find a mechanism to get away from producing too much steel, aluminium, cement, cars and wind turbines, and focus more on healthcare, tourism and logistics. The service sector creates more jobs and does not cause international trade tensions.

China is not very different from other economies on the issue, such as Japan and South Korea. Germany had a sentiment challenge after very strong economic growth in the 1950s and ’60s. It is always the situation, after a 30- or 40-year run of robust economic growth, economic growth slows, and subsequently, sentiment turns dark. So, the language from leadership matters to explain the importance of that transition.

It might be very painful, but the transition in other economies has shown it can be handled. Economies bounce back. The United States had major cycles, like in the ’70s, with the Vietnam war and an energy crisis. But 10 years later, the US was the shining example of high technology. The US showcases that, if a country has a system that allows for painful restructuring, a capital market that manages the transition, a leader who explains that transition – as the US had with president [Ronald] Reagan – it is possible to address pessimism in a society.

Foreign businesses in China are not interested in ideology or nice words. They want to see the real market hurdles removed, similar with Chinese companies operating elsewhere in the world.

China can do better. In the real economy, I see a strong desire among the big multinationals to invest more, and particularly in areas where they can benefit from Chinese innovation and engineering skills.

It is just too one-dimensional to see China only as a sales target. It has an incredible engineering base, which you want to tap into to produce competitive global products. China has a lot to offer in innovation.

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It is not very strong in basic research, but it is the world champion in development. China has the most demanding and fast-changing customers in the world. If a company wants to be globally competitive, it has to be in what I like to call the “fitness centre China”.

Small- and medium-sized enterprises from Europe are reluctant about investing here. They are concerned about the complexities of dealing with the security law and data-transfer requirements.

There is also the stronger scrutiny that foreign companies face in their own backyards, such as supply-chain laws and the Uygur Act in the US, which leads some companies to think twice about how to engage in this economy. The pressure on companies to invest in China comes from many quarters.

The Chinese population is shrinking and ageing. Energy prices are quite high. Debt levels are worrying. Local governments used to finance themselves partly from land sales, but now the money has to come from somewhere else.

It’s either from private citizens in the form of individual income taxation – which is unpopular anywhere in the world – or it’s generated from business, which already is heavily taxed in China.

We sense that EU companies are not really leaving, but we notice them moving elsewhere in new investments. China has great potential to rediscover a business-friendly language and rejuvenate the animal spirits among Chinese private entrepreneurs. An excessive control mechanism in the economy is not conducive to private entrepreneurship.

China has realised it is a danger. President Xi Jinping made a big announcement in San Francisco about inviting 50,000 students from the US to come to China.

Now, it is one thing to say it. The second is to finance it. And the third is to look appealing for students to come over and study Chinese and live in this society.

Students are young people like my own kids, and they want to have free access to Facebook and TikTok in China. Do you want to use a VPN, or live in an environment where you have to watch your words, for example? Maybe kids don’t want that. China has lost its allure to many young people from the West.

And that was aggravated by Covid. We were down to a couple of hundred foreign students in China. But the allure of Western universities’ education is huge. We have had hundreds of thousands of Chinese studying during Covid and after Covid in Western institutions.

The 50,000 goal is a good mechanism. But it involves so much more. I like the Tsinghua Schwarzman scholar programme where I sometimes give lectures. When you see these young people from all over the world coming to Beijing it is heartening to listen to these youngsters who are willing to leave their home country, learn Chinese, and expose themselves to a wonderful new experience. So, it is possible to attract young people to China.

For the West, the danger is that we are losing touch with China, losing the ability to understand and develop an emotional bond with this civilisation. And we would lose the ability to see beyond politics. In many ways, it is cuisine, art and sports that bind people together.

China has a lot to offer but finds it difficult to project it. Other countries seem to be more attractive, and China has to reflect on that.

China follows the Western sanctions to a large degree, which is good, but that’s not enough. It has to show a human face – not just by showcasing what they are not doing, meaning compliance with sanctions, but by showcasing humanitarian acts of assistance.

China could step up to the plate when the war grinds to a halt and engage in the reconstruction of Ukraine, assist financially, and offer humanitarian aid to get Ukraine back on its feet. It remains to be seen how much China feels like it can be part of this transition in the future.

We should not underestimate the sea change that another Trump administration could bring to the world. Will he get out of all these commitments in Asia that [US President Joe] Biden has established? If Biden continues with a second term, we might see a stronger G7.

The so-called Global South is not an alliance, or even aligned nations. India will not be in the sphere of China, nor will it become an ally of the West. India will be India, and it will be big enough to look after her own interests, which will change the world at a later stage.

Southeast Asia will have its own dynamics. It is more dependent on China’s economic performance. A lot of the Global South countries would benefit from the China growth story. But if China’s economy moves from 5 to 3 per cent growth, there will be less demand on commodities, which would have a huge impact on those economies.

China’s overcapacity-prone products will certainly not end up only in Brussels, Berlin or Paris, but all over the world. There will be benefits to some – like Australia, which, for example, does not have a domestic car industry to worry about. But economies like Malaysia, Thailand and Brazil do. Will they openly embrace Chinese cars? I don’t think so.

It will be a more fragmented world, and [Donald] Trump will be the one who might be a catalyst in fragmenting it further.

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I would say that an educated guess on where China is heading can be found with comparisons to other East Asian economies. China might grow flat for the next 20 years like Japan. But keep in mind that Japan maintained a sizeable and innovative economy while it had virtually a zero-growth pattern.

China could be facing an economic shock, as with what happened in South Korea in 1997. The economic turmoil there led to a reform of the chaebol [family-owned conglomerates], stronger foreign investment and more agile private entrepreneurs.

The real winner in economic comeback stories is South Korea. It has been performing better than other economies after the crisis in 1997.

In the West, we have a much longer history of industrialisation, urbanisation and democratic systems. We are so different that I think drawing inspiration from us would lead to the wrong conclusions.

The inspiration that Beijing can draw is from East Asian economies, but it is up to the leadership in Beijing to decide which way to go.